Wind Capacity Tiers
PSB Cost Analysis SubgroupWilliam Basa
Ben Beinecke
JULY 2009
©2009. Northern Power Systems. All Rights Reserved. Not to be used or shared without permission. Proprietary and Confidential.
Wind Capacity Tiers Make Sense for VT FIT
Wind Capacity Tiers make sense because wind turbines have economies of scale
• Cost per kilowatt decreases as capacity increases (negative slope)• Cost per kilowatt decreases with a non-linear relationship to
capacity (logarithmic shape to curve)• Dividing capacity into tiers helps minimize variation in cost
• Capacity Tiers should be small at low capacities and large at high capacities
• NPS has proposed 3 Tiers above the 15 kW designation:• Small Wind: 16 to 100 kW• Mid-Size Wind: 101-500 kW• Utility Scale: 501-2200 kW
• These recommendations largely agree with REV’s proposed tiers• <15kW, 15-150kW, 151-500kW, >501kW
©2009. Northern Power Systems. All Rights Reserved. Not to be used or shared without permission. Proprietary and Confidential.
“Small Wind” Tier Based on Existing Definitions
American Wind Energy Association (AWEA)• Small Wind “defined as having rated capacities 100 kilowatts or
less”
US Federal Government for Investment Tax Credit/ARRA• Eligible small wind property includes wind turbines 100 kW or less in
capacity.
National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)/Department of Energy
• “Small wind turbine” refers to a turbine less than or equal to 100 kW.”
©2009. Northern Power Systems. All Rights Reserved. Not to be used or shared without permission. Proprietary and Confidential.
Methodology
Develop a cost curve based on publicly available information on installed costs of commissioned wind energy projects
• Not a perfect approximation of cost at any capacity (not meant to be), but accurate enough to show trend in data (ie economies of scale, decreasing costs)
Test existing tiers (less than or equal to 15 kW; >15 kW) for cost variance
Divide cost curve into tiers based on existing definitions of wind projects and cost variance
Test tiers for cost variance
©2009. Northern Power Systems. All Rights Reserved. Not to be used or shared without permission. Proprietary and Confidential.
Published Installed Costs as Chart Data
Project Location MachineTurbine
CapacityInstalled Cost Cost per kW Sources:
Hypothetical Hypothetical MariahPower 1 $9,500 $7,917 http://www.windenergy.com/news/news_Wind_Wire_4-17-09.html
Hypothetical Hypothetical Skystream 2 $19,000 $7,917 http://www.windenergy.com/news/news_Wind_Wire_4-17-09.html
Hypothetical Hypothetical Bergey 10 $65,000 $6,500 http://www.windenergy.com/news/news_Wind_Wire_4-17-09.html
Ocean Gate Ocean Gate, NJ 50 $300,000 $6,000 http://www.app.com/article/20090629/NEWS/90629099/1070/NEWS02
Hypothetical Hypothetical Northern Power 100 $550,000 $5,500 Northern Power
Bartlett Farm Nantucket, MA Furhlander 250 $1,000,000 $4,000 http://www.plumtv.com/videos/bartletts-farm-windmill/index.html
Sand Bay Wind Farm Falkland Islands Enercon E33 330 $1,040,024 $3,152 www.falklands.gov.fk/site/legco/155-08.pdf
Holy Name Worcester, MA Vestas RRB 600 600 $1,500,000 $2,500 www.holyname.net
Mass. Maritime Academy
Buzzards Bay,
MA 660 $1,500,000$2,273
http://www.capecodonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071118/BIZ/711180311/-1/NEWS
Portsmouth Abbey Rhode Island Vestas V47 660 $1,250,000 $1,894 http://www.portsmouthabbey.org/page/1018/
Jiminy Peak Hancock, MA GE 1.5 sle 1500 $3,900,000 $2,600 www.informationweek.com
Berkshire Wind Brodie, MA 1500 $4,500,000$3,000
http://boston.bizjournals.com/boston/stories/2008/06/09/daily39.html
Stetson II Maine 1500 $3,529,412$2,353
http://www.bangordailynews.com/detail/100847.html
Mars Hill Maine 1500 $3,035,714$2,024
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power_in_Maine#Stetson_Wind_Farm
Rollins Maine 1500 $3,000,000$2,000
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power_in_Maine#Stetson_Wind_Farm
PMLD Princeton, MA 1550 $3,650,000$2,355
http://www.pmld.com/WindFarm.htm
Otis Air National Guard Otis, MA Vestas V82 1650 $4,600,000 $2,788 www.boston.com
Kibby Mountain Maine Vestas 3000 $7,272,727 $2,424 www.transcanada.com/news/2008_news/20080709.html
©2009. Northern Power Systems. All Rights Reserved. Not to be used or shared without permission. Proprietary and Confidential.
Logarithmic Trendline
Wind Energy Installed Cost per Kilowatt by Turbine Capacity y = -838.03Ln(x) + 8477.5
R2 = 0.9236
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
$9,000
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
Nameplate Capacity (kW)
($/k
W)
Existing Proposal for Single Tier above 15kw
©2009. Northern Power Systems. All Rights Reserved. Not to be used or shared without permission. Proprietary and Confidential.
Existing Single Tier Proposal: 16-2200kW
Statute Proposed Single Tier: 16-2200 kW
R2 = 0.8095
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Nameplate Capacity (kW)
App
rox.
$/k
W
Wind Energy Installed Cost per Kilowatt by Turbine Capacity y = -838.03Ln(x) + 8477.5
R2 = 0.9236
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
$9,000
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
Nameplate Capacity (kW)
($/k
W)
Cost
Variation
~$4200
©2009. Northern Power Systems. All Rights Reserved. Not to be used or shared without permission. Proprietary and Confidential.
NPS Proposed Tier 2: 16-100 kW
NPS Proposed Tier 2: 16-100 kW
R2 = 0.9492
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Nameplate Capacity (kW)
App
rox.
$/k
W
Wind Energy Installed Cost per Kilowatt by Turbine Capacity y = -838.03Ln(x) + 8477.5
R2 = 0.9236
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
$9,000
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
Nameplate Capacity (kW)
($/k
W)
Cost
Variation
~$1400
©2009. Northern Power Systems. All Rights Reserved. Not to be used or shared without permission. Proprietary and Confidential.
NPS Proposed Tier 3: 101-500 kW
NPS Proposed Tier 3: 101-500 kW
R2 = 0.9612
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
$4,500
$5,000
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Nameplate Capacity (kW)
App
rox.
$/k
W
Wind Energy Installed Cost per Kilowatt by Turbine Capacity y = -838.03Ln(x) + 8477.5
R2 = 0.9236
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
$9,000
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
Nameplate Capacity (kW)
($/k
W)
Cost
Variation
~$1350
©2009. Northern Power Systems. All Rights Reserved. Not to be used or shared without permission. Proprietary and Confidential.
NPS Proposed Tier 4: >501 kW
NPS Proposed Tier 4: 501-2200 kW
R2 = 0.9665
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Nameplate Capacity (kW)
App
rox.
$/k
W
Wind Energy Installed Cost per Kilowatt by Turbine Capacity y = -838.03Ln(x) + 8477.5
R2 = 0.9236
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
$9,000
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
Nameplate Capacity (kW)
($/k
W)
Cost
Variation
~$1300
Top Related