Vulnerable Local Economies
Labour Market Forum
22 March 2011
Sian Rasdale
The Public Sector in Scotland
• December 2010 - 595,800 employed in the public sector - 24.0% of total employment
• 493,100 (82.8%) derives from public bodies devolved to Scotland
• 102,800 (17.2%) relates to reserved public sector employment.
Make-up of the public sector in Scotland
Source: Public Sector Employment in Scotland, Q4 2010
Local Government295,200
51%
Public Sector Financial Institutions
38,5006%
Civil Service48,700
8%
NHS160,700
27%
Public Corporations20,200
3%
Other Public Bodies20,300
3%
Armed Forces12,300
2%
Is public sector employment evenly distributed?
Source: 1. Business Register Employment Survey, 2009, ONSSupplemented by2. Defence Analytical Services and Advice (DASA), TSP 10, October 2009, MoD3. Annual Population Survey, Jan-Dec 2009
15% to 25% jobs in public sector
25% to 35% jobs in public sector
35% to 45% jobs in public sector
SG Analysis – Indicators used– Level/proportion of public sector jobs– Increase in number of people on the claimant count since September 2008– Level/proportion of people on the claimant count longer than 12 months– Gap/rate between notified vacancies and number of people on unemployment
benefit. – Level/proportion of people on Employment Support Allowance and Incapacity
Benefit– Gap between public and private sector earnings– Proportion/level of employed people who are self-employed– Number of jobs in vulnerable industries– Number of jobs in resilient and high growth industries– Number of jobs in GES key sectors– Level/proportion of population aged 16-64 with no qualifications– Level/proportion of population aged 16-64 with NVQ4 and above– Level/proportion of population employed in ‘Managers, Senior Officials and
Professional Occupations’.– Level/proportion of population employed in ‘Elementary Occupations’.– Number of new enterprises– % of Private Sector Jobs within the top 10 large employers in an area– % of Jobs in Vulnerable industries
SG AnalysisLA Results
Local Hotspots National Hotspot
West Dunbartonshire North Lanarkshire
North Ayrshire Glasgow City
North Lanarkshire South Lanarkshire
East Ayrshire Edinburgh, City of
Falkirk East Ayrshire
Dundee City Fife
Glasgow City North Ayrshire
Midlothian Dundee City
Renfrewshire Renfrewshire
West Lothian West Lothian
Highlighted areas are both a local and national hotspot.
SG AnalysisTTWA Hotspots
Local Hotspot National Hotspot
Irvine & Arran Glasgow
Dunoon & Bute Lanarkshire
Dumbarton Edinburgh
Kirkcaldy & Glenrothes Ayr & Kilmarnock
Hawick Kirkcaldy & Glenrothes
Kelso & Jedburgh Falkirk
Lochgilphead Dundee
Wick Irvine & Arran
Eilean Siar Livingston & Bathgate
Falkirk Aberdeen
Comparison of AnalysisOverall ranking – ITEM
club Business resilience –
ExperianSG Analysis – Local Hotspots
Midlothian North Ayrshire West Dunbartonshire
East Ayrshire West Dunbartonshire North Ayrshire
Inverclyde Falkirk North Lanarkshire
Clackmannanshire North Lanarkshire East Ayrshire
Dundee City Clackmannanshire Falkirk
West Dunbartonshire Dundee City Dundee City
Eilean Siar Inverclyde Glasgow City
East Lothian Renfrewshire Midlothian
Fife East Ayrshire Renfrewshire
Renfrewshire East Renfrewshire West Lothian
Local authorities in red are in the ‘top ten’ for all three sets of analysisLocal authorities in orange appear in the ‘top ten’ for two sets of analysis
Dundee City• High rates of worklessness
• Highly qualified workforce – underutilised?
• Dependence on the public sector– 25,000 jobs of 83,000 in public sector
• 8,100 in Local Govt (exc. Police and Fire)• 850 in HMRC• 600 Pension and Disability Carers Service• 490 JC+• Remainder – devolved agencies/NDPBs, Police,
Fire, NHS
East Ayrshire • Low rate of vacancies/claimant count• Low private sector earnings• Low qualifications• Dependence on public sector
– 14,000 jobs of 46,000 in public sector• 6,600 in Local Govt (exc. Police and Fire)• 380 JC+• 120 Child Maintenance and Enforcement Commision• 40 Scottish Court Service
Next Steps
• Build up detailed picture of make-up of public sector for regions/LA’s
• Gather information on public sector job cuts
• Further analysis around local areas ability to respond
Discussion
• Any questions?
Sian Rasdale
Labour Market Statistician
0300 244 6783
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