Vulnerable Local Economies

Labour Market Forum

22 March 2011

Sian Rasdale

The Public Sector in Scotland

• December 2010 - 595,800 employed in the public sector - 24.0% of total employment

• 493,100 (82.8%) derives from public bodies devolved to Scotland

• 102,800 (17.2%) relates to reserved public sector employment.

Make-up of the public sector in Scotland

Source: Public Sector Employment in Scotland, Q4 2010

Local Government295,200

51%

Public Sector Financial Institutions

38,5006%

Civil Service48,700

8%

NHS160,700

27%

Public Corporations20,200

3%

Other Public Bodies20,300

3%

Armed Forces12,300

2%

Is public sector employment evenly distributed?

Source: 1. Business Register Employment Survey, 2009, ONSSupplemented by2. Defence Analytical Services and Advice (DASA), TSP 10, October 2009, MoD3. Annual Population Survey, Jan-Dec 2009

15% to 25% jobs in public sector

25% to 35% jobs in public sector

35% to 45% jobs in public sector

SG Analysis – Indicators used– Level/proportion of public sector jobs– Increase in number of people on the claimant count since September 2008– Level/proportion of people on the claimant count longer than 12 months– Gap/rate between notified vacancies and number of people on unemployment

benefit. – Level/proportion of people on Employment Support Allowance and Incapacity

Benefit– Gap between public and private sector earnings– Proportion/level of employed people who are self-employed– Number of jobs in vulnerable industries– Number of jobs in resilient and high growth industries– Number of jobs in GES key sectors– Level/proportion of population aged 16-64 with no qualifications– Level/proportion of population aged 16-64 with NVQ4 and above– Level/proportion of population employed in ‘Managers, Senior Officials and

Professional Occupations’.– Level/proportion of population employed in ‘Elementary Occupations’.– Number of new enterprises– % of Private Sector Jobs within the top 10 large employers in an area– % of Jobs in Vulnerable industries

SG AnalysisLA Results

Local Hotspots National Hotspot

West Dunbartonshire North Lanarkshire

North Ayrshire Glasgow City

North Lanarkshire South Lanarkshire

East Ayrshire Edinburgh, City of

Falkirk East Ayrshire

Dundee City Fife

Glasgow City North Ayrshire

Midlothian Dundee City

Renfrewshire Renfrewshire

West Lothian West Lothian

Highlighted areas are both a local and national hotspot.

SG AnalysisTTWA Hotspots

Local Hotspot National Hotspot

Irvine & Arran Glasgow

Dunoon & Bute Lanarkshire

Dumbarton Edinburgh

Kirkcaldy & Glenrothes Ayr & Kilmarnock

Hawick Kirkcaldy & Glenrothes

Kelso & Jedburgh Falkirk

Lochgilphead Dundee

Wick Irvine & Arran

Eilean Siar Livingston & Bathgate

Falkirk Aberdeen

Comparison of AnalysisOverall ranking – ITEM

club Business resilience –

ExperianSG Analysis – Local Hotspots

Midlothian North Ayrshire West Dunbartonshire

East Ayrshire West Dunbartonshire North Ayrshire

Inverclyde Falkirk North Lanarkshire

Clackmannanshire North Lanarkshire East Ayrshire

Dundee City Clackmannanshire Falkirk

West Dunbartonshire Dundee City Dundee City

Eilean Siar Inverclyde Glasgow City

East Lothian Renfrewshire Midlothian

Fife East Ayrshire Renfrewshire

Renfrewshire East Renfrewshire West Lothian

Local authorities in red are in the ‘top ten’ for all three sets of analysisLocal authorities in orange appear in the ‘top ten’ for two sets of analysis

Dundee City• High rates of worklessness

• Highly qualified workforce – underutilised?

• Dependence on the public sector– 25,000 jobs of 83,000 in public sector

• 8,100 in Local Govt (exc. Police and Fire)• 850 in HMRC• 600 Pension and Disability Carers Service• 490 JC+• Remainder – devolved agencies/NDPBs, Police,

Fire, NHS

East Ayrshire • Low rate of vacancies/claimant count• Low private sector earnings• Low qualifications• Dependence on public sector

– 14,000 jobs of 46,000 in public sector• 6,600 in Local Govt (exc. Police and Fire)• 380 JC+• 120 Child Maintenance and Enforcement Commision• 40 Scottish Court Service

Next Steps

• Build up detailed picture of make-up of public sector for regions/LA’s

• Gather information on public sector job cuts

• Further analysis around local areas ability to respond

Discussion

• Any questions?

Sian Rasdale

Labour Market Statistician

0300 244 6783