Tsunami risk in South Asia
Dale Dominey-Howes
Macquarie UniversitySydney, Australia
Structure of the presentation
Short context
Outline relative global risk
Explore risk in the Asia-Pacific region – frequency-magnitude
Recommendations for the industry
Global Conference on Insurance and Reinsurancefor Natural Catastrophe Risk
Introduction and context
We now know what tsunami are
They are generated in four separate ways
Tsunami magnitude is a measure of wave height at shore
Tsunami intensity is a measure of wave effect
Tsunami have dramatic effects on human and environmental systems
Remainder of this talk will outline relative global risk before summarising risk in the Asia-Pacific region
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Causes
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Tsunami Magnitude
Tsunami intensity?Global Conference on Insurance and Reinsurance
for Natural Catastrophe Risk
Magnitude data across the globe
Analysis for specific “Cresta zones”
www.nerc-bas.ac.uk/tsunami-risks/index.html
Economic and insurance costs
UN estimate of rebuild costs – US$10 – 12.5 bn
As of April 2005, insured losses estimated at US$2.5 – 4 bn
Major insurers / reinsurers reporting relatively low losses
Insurance losses remarkably light – low wealth areas with little(catastrophe) insurance
Little domestic property and business insurance
Affected multiple classes:
Life and healthBuildings, contents and infrastructureBusiness interruption lossTravelMotorMarine etc Global Conference on Insurance and Reinsurance
for Natural Catastrophe Risk
http://www.nerc-bas.ac.uk/tsunami-risks/index.html
Relative Global Risk – historic distribution
Large tsunami: = 6:100 years!
Two on-line catalogues:
Russian catalogue from 1628 BC – 2,200 eventsAmerican catalogue from 49 BC – over 2,000 events
Relative Global Risk
Tsunami risk in the Asia-Pacific region
SAM
HAW
CAM
A-A
K-K
JAP
PHI
INDNGS
NZT
(After Gusiakov, 2005)
Efficiency of tsunami generation
Region EQK Tsunami TE (%)
South America*
122 102 84
Indonesia* 86 68 79
Philippines 73 55 75
NG – Sol Islands
130 86 64
Central America
112 62 55
Japan 255 123 48
Alaska – Aleutians
108 49 46
Kuril – Kamchatka
150 68 45
NZL – Tonga 162 62 38
Hawai’i* 3 13 433Global Conference on Insurance and Reinsurancefor Natural Catastrophe Risk
Tsunami Risk in South Asia?
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Indian_Ocean_earthquake
Tsunamigenic zones?
Past tsunami events?
Frequency – magnitude?
Future risk?
IO Warning System andpublic awareness andmitigation techniques
Recommendations for the insurance / reinsurance industry
Fundamental research on documentary and geological record of tsunami
Recommendations for the insurance / reinsurance industry
Use of improved records of tsunami to examine frequency-recurrence and magnitude estimates for at risk areas
Recommendations for the insurance / reinsurance industry
Development and application of tsunami vulnerability assessment frameworks and the development of appropriate building code standards and best practice design
Recommendations for the insurance / reinsurance industry
Reassessment of insurance asset exposure to tsunami loss and careful pricing of premiums to accurately take account of potential tsunami losses
Recommendations for the insurance / reinsurance industry
Increased collaboration between relevant stakeholders to improve community education and to promote risk reduction measures
Acknowledgements
Organisers for invitation to make this presentation
Thanks to Aon Re Australia Ltd for their support in to research in to tsunami
Any questions?
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