Transformative management for more resilient food production
systemsA. Vidal, D. Mpairwe, D. Peden, M. Quintero, T.P. Tuong
CGIAR Challenge Program on Water and Food
Stockholm World Water Week 2010Workshop 7 - Resilience, Uncertainty and Tipping Points
9 September 2010
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Re-greening the Uganda “Cattle Corridor”
Community corralling of cattle for 2 weeks
permits pasture establishment
Local organizations invest in up-scaling of pasture regeneration
Termites destroy any attempt to reseed degraded pasture
Global food crisis: a poverty “countdown”
3 billion poor below US$2.5/day2 billion suffer from malnutrition1 billion suffer from hunger 75% of them are rural poor Alleviating hunger means reducing rural poverty
Reducing rural poverty Increase the income of the rural poor to enable
investment Ensure they can cope with short-term and long-
term changes3
The resilience challengeFood production communities and ecosystems should be able to cope with local and global changes (climate, economy, demography, migrations…), ie become more resilient Achieved through improved water
productivity (more food with less water) together with empowerment, equity, market access, health and ecosystemservices
Often neglected is the water quality that supports food-producing communities
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What exactly is resilience?The capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and reorganize while undergoing change, while retaining essentially the same function, structure, identity, and feedbacks (Walker et al. 2004)4 components: Latitude Resistance Precariousness Panarchy - cross-scales
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Addressing the resilience challengeIncrease resilience of social-ecological systems?
Humans can influence attributes of resilience
adaptability
They can also create a fundamentally new systemtransformability
Scenario planning to explore plausible transformations Example: shifting rangeland activities from livestock to
ecotourism6
Thresholds and tipping pointsThe linear assumption The engineer’s dream, but rarely the case with social-ecological
systems!
Non-linear but reversible change
Non-linear and irreversible change
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Questioning resilience of theUganda “Cattle Corridor”
Community corralling of cattle for 2 weeks
permits pasture establishment
Local organizations invest in up-scaling of pasture regeneration
Termites destroy any attempt to reseed degraded pasture
?
Review of CPWF adaptive and transformative management cases
Re-greening the Uganda “Cattle Corridor”
Restoring river flows, quality and ecosystem services in the Andes
Restoring the sustainability of the Mekong Delta agro-ecosystem
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Re-greening the Uganda “Cattle Corridor”
Ecosystem passed a seemingly irreversible threshold, unable to
recover
Restoration of vegetative pasture grass cover, more feed availability to
animals, carbon sequestration
Resulting change on water systems
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Silting and sedimentation of
the valley tank water reservoirs
Reduced sedimentation
and evaporative losses (20%)
Re-greening+ Lemna &
Nymphea
Triggers for change between alternate resilient states
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S
SWater depletion, grazing pressure, loss of soil organic matter
Manure applied through night corralling provides a preferred diet for the termites
Wet Season:Dry matter 4.5 T/ha9 species / m²
Wet Season:Dry matter 0 T/ha0 species / m²
Restoring ecosystem services in the Andes
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High altitude wetland (paramo)
degraded by potato cropping and overgrazing
Paramo restored through
conservation tillage and oat/potato
rotation
Resulting changes on upstream water
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T re a tme n t 1 T re a tme n t 2
1 2
H o rizo n
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
% v
olum
etri
c w
ater
Conservation agriculture
Traditional agriculture
% V
olum
etric
Wat
erMore water stored, restoring the buffer
role of paramo
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
1 2 3 4
Size fraction
AO
M (
g/g
)
RT-Horizon 1 CT-Horizon 1 RT-Horizon 2 CT-Horizon 2
Conservation agriculture
Traditional agriculture
Accu
mul
ated
Org
anic
M
atter
(g/g
)
Better soil porosity, filtration, increased water and carbon
storage
Resulting change on downstream water – the starting point
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Improved water quality and
downstream ecosystem services
from Lake
Conservation agriculture and
paramo restoration
Eutrophication and shrinking of
Fuquene Lake (downstream)
Triggers for change between alternate resilient states
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S
Annual net income:2,183/ha
Annual net income:US$ 1,870/ha
Conservation agriculture and paramo restoration supported by revolving fund
Farmers‘ insufficient gain and risk aversion: only 11% converted
Revolving fund credit: +180 farmers /year
Potato cropping, grazing pressure, degradation of paramo
Restoring the sustainability of the Mekong Delta agro-ecosystem
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Farmer adoption of diverse rice-shrimp-
fish production systems
Zonal sluice gate management allows
brackish or fresh water at different times of
year
Provincial government recognized brackish water as a resource;
promoted new systems
Diversification supporting economic growth
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Before After
Growth rate of Bac Lieu province (2004 – 2006) 15.7%/yearIncome of rice-shrimp system: ca. US$ 2,150/ha/year
Impact on farmers’ income
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
96 98 00 01 02 03 060
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
96 98 00 01 02 03 06
Average Poor
Ninh Thanh Loi Ninh Hoa
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
96 98 00 01 02 03 06
Average
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
96 98 00 01 02 03 06
Very poor
Minh Dieu
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
96 98 00 01 02 03 06
Average
0
50
100
150
200
96 98 00 01 02 03 06
Poor
Triggers for change between alternate resilient states
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S
S
Social conflicts between brackish (shrimp) and freshwater (rice) environments
Higher incomeUS$2,150 /ha8700 farmers adopted innovation
Reduced pollution?
Low income< US$ 1,500/haPolluted aquatic
environment
Improved locally-responsive zoning together with sluice gate management
Adaptation or
Transformation?
Lessons learnt on food production social-ecological systems
States defined by recurring (local) variables Soil properties (eg organic matter, carbon) Water quantity and quality Animal density (livestock, fish) Household income Community organisation
Generally resistant but precarious
Non-linear changes,most often reversible
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Lessons learnt on adaptability and transformabilityDegraded food producting systems are often locked in resilient (poverty) traps
Institutional and technical innovations mostly enable adaptation (transformation seems to require more time and dramatic changes)
Long-term efforts required to strengthen the resilience of desired states
Negative feedbacks (innovation adoption vs. risk-aversion)
Precariousness22
Unanswered questions…How can we make research more effective at finding triggers for change?Can we reproduce them?What are the interactions with other scales and their role in changes observed? River basin
Field level
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Thank [email protected]
www.waterandfood.org
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