Transformative management for more resilient food production

systemsA. Vidal, D. Mpairwe, D. Peden, M. Quintero, T.P. Tuong

CGIAR Challenge Program on Water and Food

Stockholm World Water Week 2010Workshop 7 - Resilience, Uncertainty and Tipping Points

9 September 2010

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Re-greening the Uganda “Cattle Corridor”

Community corralling of cattle for 2 weeks

permits pasture establishment

Local organizations invest in up-scaling of pasture regeneration

Termites destroy any attempt to reseed degraded pasture

Global food crisis: a poverty “countdown”

3 billion poor below US$2.5/day2 billion suffer from malnutrition1 billion suffer from hunger 75% of them are rural poor Alleviating hunger means reducing rural poverty

Reducing rural poverty Increase the income of the rural poor to enable

investment Ensure they can cope with short-term and long-

term changes3

The resilience challengeFood production communities and ecosystems should be able to cope with local and global changes (climate, economy, demography, migrations…), ie become more resilient Achieved through improved water

productivity (more food with less water) together with empowerment, equity, market access, health and ecosystemservices

Often neglected is the water quality that supports food-producing communities

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What exactly is resilience?The capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and reorganize while undergoing change, while retaining essentially the same function, structure, identity, and feedbacks (Walker et al. 2004)4 components: Latitude Resistance Precariousness Panarchy - cross-scales

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Addressing the resilience challengeIncrease resilience of social-ecological systems?

Humans can influence attributes of resilience

adaptability

They can also create a fundamentally new systemtransformability

Scenario planning to explore plausible transformations Example: shifting rangeland activities from livestock to

ecotourism6

Thresholds and tipping pointsThe linear assumption The engineer’s dream, but rarely the case with social-ecological

systems!

Non-linear but reversible change

Non-linear and irreversible change

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Questioning resilience of theUganda “Cattle Corridor”

Community corralling of cattle for 2 weeks

permits pasture establishment

Local organizations invest in up-scaling of pasture regeneration

Termites destroy any attempt to reseed degraded pasture

?

Review of CPWF adaptive and transformative management cases

Re-greening the Uganda “Cattle Corridor”

Restoring river flows, quality and ecosystem services in the Andes

Restoring the sustainability of the Mekong Delta agro-ecosystem

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Re-greening the Uganda “Cattle Corridor”

Ecosystem passed a seemingly irreversible threshold, unable to

recover

Restoration of vegetative pasture grass cover, more feed availability to

animals, carbon sequestration

Resulting change on water systems

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Silting and sedimentation of

the valley tank water reservoirs

Reduced sedimentation

and evaporative losses (20%)

Re-greening+ Lemna &

Nymphea

Triggers for change between alternate resilient states

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S

SWater depletion, grazing pressure, loss of soil organic matter

Manure applied through night corralling provides a preferred diet for the termites

Wet Season:Dry matter 4.5 T/ha9 species / m²

Wet Season:Dry matter 0 T/ha0 species / m²

Restoring ecosystem services in the Andes

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High altitude wetland (paramo)

degraded by potato cropping and overgrazing

Paramo restored through

conservation tillage and oat/potato

rotation

Resulting changes on upstream water

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T re a tme n t 1 T re a tme n t 2

1 2

H o rizo n

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% v

olum

etri

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ater

Conservation agriculture

Traditional agriculture

% V

olum

etric

Wat

erMore water stored, restoring the buffer

role of paramo

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Size fraction

AO

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RT-Horizon 1 CT-Horizon 1 RT-Horizon 2 CT-Horizon 2

Conservation agriculture

Traditional agriculture

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atter

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Better soil porosity, filtration, increased water and carbon

storage

Resulting change on downstream water – the starting point

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Improved water quality and

downstream ecosystem services

from Lake

Conservation agriculture and

paramo restoration

Eutrophication and shrinking of

Fuquene Lake (downstream)

Triggers for change between alternate resilient states

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S

Annual net income:2,183/ha

Annual net income:US$ 1,870/ha

Conservation agriculture and paramo restoration supported by revolving fund

Farmers‘ insufficient gain and risk aversion: only 11% converted

Revolving fund credit: +180 farmers /year

Potato cropping, grazing pressure, degradation of paramo

Restoring the sustainability of the Mekong Delta agro-ecosystem

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Farmer adoption of diverse rice-shrimp-

fish production systems

Zonal sluice gate management allows

brackish or fresh water at different times of

year

Provincial government recognized brackish water as a resource;

promoted new systems

Diversification supporting economic growth

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Before After

Growth rate of Bac Lieu province (2004 – 2006) 15.7%/yearIncome of rice-shrimp system: ca. US$ 2,150/ha/year

Impact on farmers’ income

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Triggers for change between alternate resilient states

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S

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Social conflicts between brackish (shrimp) and freshwater (rice) environments

Higher incomeUS$2,150 /ha8700 farmers adopted innovation

Reduced pollution?

Low income< US$ 1,500/haPolluted aquatic

environment

Improved locally-responsive zoning together with sluice gate management

Adaptation or

Transformation?

Lessons learnt on food production social-ecological systems

States defined by recurring (local) variables Soil properties (eg organic matter, carbon) Water quantity and quality Animal density (livestock, fish) Household income Community organisation

Generally resistant but precarious

Non-linear changes,most often reversible

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Lessons learnt on adaptability and transformabilityDegraded food producting systems are often locked in resilient (poverty) traps

Institutional and technical innovations mostly enable adaptation (transformation seems to require more time and dramatic changes)

Long-term efforts required to strengthen the resilience of desired states

Negative feedbacks (innovation adoption vs. risk-aversion)

Precariousness22

Unanswered questions…How can we make research more effective at finding triggers for change?Can we reproduce them?What are the interactions with other scales and their role in changes observed? River basin

Field level

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Thank youa.vidal@cgiar.org

www.waterandfood.org