Thomas Boermans, Unit Manager Built Environment Strategies
Brussels, 29th November 2011
Economic effects of investing in energy efficiency in buildings - the BEAM² ModelEC WORKSHOP, COHESION POLICY INVESTING IN ENERGY EFFICIENCY IN BUILDINGS
© ECOFYS | | 29/11/2011 Thomas Boermans
Agenda
Energy efficiency in buildings – background
Baltic Energy Efficiency Network (BEEN)
Economic impacts of EE in buildings at EU level
Some recommendations
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The buildings sector:significant and cost effective potential
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
Mt CO2eq
€ /
t C
O2eq
Source: Ecofys, project SERPEC-CC for European Commission DG-Environment, 2009
29/11/2011 Thomas Boermans
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The (political) vision
Cost optimal requirements nearly zero energy
29/11/2011 Thomas Boermans
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The comitology process
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diaj
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,
Cost optimal requirements nearly zero energy
see also www.bpie.eu
TOTAL COSTS
€ /m2
kWh/m2
CO2 costs
Energy costs
Other energy related construction costs
Maintenance costs
Installed appliances invest.
Building envelope investments
Package
1
23 4
5
6
heating
cooling
ventilation
lighting
……..
TOTAL COSTS
€ /m2
kWh/m2
CO2 costs
Energy costs
Other energy related construction costs
Maintenance costs
Installed appliances invest.
Building envelope investments
Package
1
23 4
5
6
heating
cooling
ventilation
lighting
……..
29/11/2011 Thomas Boermans
© ECOFYS | |
Timelines – new buildings
2010 2020 20XX
Cost optimal requirements nearly zero energy ???
29/11/2011 Thomas Boermans
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Timelines - retrofit
2010 20XX 20YY
Cost optimal requirements deep renovation ? ???
29/11/2011 Thomas Boermans
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Baltic energy efficiency network - BEEN
• Assessment of current status of energy efficient refurbishments in Baltic sea region
• Assessment of energy- and CO2 saving potentials & job effects
• Development of strategies & instruments to promote energy efficient refurbishment
• focus on multi-storey housing built 1950 - 1990.
• Implementation of three best practice projects
client: Berlin Senate, BMVBS, EU
29/11/2011 Thomas Boermans
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Baltic energy efficiency network - BEEN
29/11/2011 Thomas Boermans
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Baltic energy efficiency network - BEEN
29/11/2011 Thomas Boermans
© ECOFYS | |
Baltic energy efficiency network - BEEN
29/11/2011 Thomas Boermans
© ECOFYS | | 29/11/2011 Thomas Boermans
BEAM²
© ECOFYS | | 29/11/2011 Thomas Boermans
BEAM²
© ECOFYS | | 29/11/2011 Thomas Boermans
Reference Scenario Germany
0
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
300.000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
kt/a
Heating + Hot Water (all buildings) [BMWi] direct and indirect emissions Heating + Hot Water (all buildings) [BMWi] direct emissions only
"-40% in 2020" target Heating + Hot Water (all buildings)
Sensitivity retrofit rate 1.8% Sensitivity retrofit rate 1.0%
-40% Emission Saving Target
CO2-mitigating potential for heating and hot water in residential and non-residential buildings up to 2010
from study evaluation and forecast until 2020. For 2010-2020, three scenarios with different retrofit-rates
(1.0%, 1.4% and 1.8%) are calculated, resulting in different emission paths. Not climate corrected.
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Financing retrofit – some numbers
Example for timeframe 2010 to 2020 for EU27
• Increase retrofit rate from 1,7 % p.a. (BAU) to 2,8%
• Improved ambition level (in the area of cost optimality)
• Estimated results*• Additional energy related investment: 30 billion € p.a.• Total energy related investment: 65 billion € p.a.• Total invest (energy and non-energy): 100 billion € p.a.
(turnover building industry in 2009: 1,2 trillion EURO)• Negative CO2 abatement costs
* based on research done by Ecofys in the framework of the impact assessment of the
EPBD recast / energy saving action plan (using BEAM²)
29/11/2011 Thomas Boermans
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Different renovation tracks – indicative only
2010 20502020 2030 2040
track 1
track 2
Track 1: fast renovation: (very) high speed, average ambition level
Track 2: deep renovation: average speed, (very) high ambition level
CO
2 –
em
issi
ons
EU
build
ing s
tock
29/11/2011 Thomas Boermans
© ECOFYS | |
Enabling factors for retrofit (examples)
Political/Legal
• review (EU/national) definitions of major renovation, see
www.eceee.org/press/Extending_EE_requirements/
• define ambition level for “deep renovation”
• secure balance of interests in investor user conflict
Financial/fiscal
• provide soft loans at reduced interest rates and longer loan
duration (e.g. 20 years, state guarantees)
• fiscal instruments (e.g. reduced VAT)
Information
• information/realisation campaigns
• ensure proper training and capacity building
29/11/2011 Thomas Boermans
Thomas Boermans
Unit Manager Built Environment Strategies
E: t. [email protected]
T: +49 221 270 70-151
W: www.ecofys.com
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