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Transcript of Thomas Boermans, Unit Manager Built Environment Strategies Brussels, 29 th November 2011 Economic...
Thomas Boermans, Unit Manager Built Environment Strategies
Brussels, 29th November 2011
Economic effects of investing in energy efficiency in buildings - the BEAM² ModelEC WORKSHOP, COHESION POLICY INVESTING IN ENERGY EFFICIENCY IN BUILDINGS
© ECOFYS | | 29/11/2011 Thomas Boermans
Agenda
Energy efficiency in buildings – background
Baltic Energy Efficiency Network (BEEN)
Economic impacts of EE in buildings at EU level
Some recommendations
© ECOFYS | |
The buildings sector:significant and cost effective potential
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
Mt CO2eq
€ /
t C
O2eq
Source: Ecofys, project SERPEC-CC for European Commission DG-Environment, 2009
29/11/2011 Thomas Boermans
© ECOFYS | |
The (political) vision
Cost optimal requirements nearly zero energy
29/11/2011 Thomas Boermans
© ECOFYS | |
The comitology process
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diaj
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,
Cost optimal requirements nearly zero energy
see also www.bpie.eu
TOTAL COSTS
€ /m2
kWh/m2
CO2 costs
Energy costs
Other energy related construction costs
Maintenance costs
Installed appliances invest.
Building envelope investments
Package
1
23 4
5
6
heating
cooling
ventilation
lighting
……..
TOTAL COSTS
€ /m2
kWh/m2
CO2 costs
Energy costs
Other energy related construction costs
Maintenance costs
Installed appliances invest.
Building envelope investments
Package
1
23 4
5
6
heating
cooling
ventilation
lighting
……..
29/11/2011 Thomas Boermans
© ECOFYS | |
Timelines – new buildings
2010 2020 20XX
Cost optimal requirements nearly zero energy ???
29/11/2011 Thomas Boermans
© ECOFYS | |
Timelines - retrofit
2010 20XX 20YY
Cost optimal requirements deep renovation ? ???
29/11/2011 Thomas Boermans
© ECOFYS | |
Baltic energy efficiency network - BEEN
• Assessment of current status of energy efficient refurbishments in Baltic sea region
• Assessment of energy- and CO2 saving potentials & job effects
• Development of strategies & instruments to promote energy efficient refurbishment
• focus on multi-storey housing built 1950 - 1990.
• Implementation of three best practice projects
client: Berlin Senate, BMVBS, EU
29/11/2011 Thomas Boermans
© ECOFYS | |
Baltic energy efficiency network - BEEN
29/11/2011 Thomas Boermans
© ECOFYS | |
Baltic energy efficiency network - BEEN
29/11/2011 Thomas Boermans
© ECOFYS | |
Baltic energy efficiency network - BEEN
29/11/2011 Thomas Boermans
© ECOFYS | | 29/11/2011 Thomas Boermans
BEAM²
© ECOFYS | | 29/11/2011 Thomas Boermans
BEAM²
© ECOFYS | | 29/11/2011 Thomas Boermans
Reference Scenario Germany
0
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
300.000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
kt/a
Heating + Hot Water (all buildings) [BMWi] direct and indirect emissions Heating + Hot Water (all buildings) [BMWi] direct emissions only
"-40% in 2020" target Heating + Hot Water (all buildings)
Sensitivity retrofit rate 1.8% Sensitivity retrofit rate 1.0%
-40% Emission Saving Target
CO2-mitigating potential for heating and hot water in residential and non-residential buildings up to 2010
from study evaluation and forecast until 2020. For 2010-2020, three scenarios with different retrofit-rates
(1.0%, 1.4% and 1.8%) are calculated, resulting in different emission paths. Not climate corrected.
© ECOFYS | |
Financing retrofit – some numbers
Example for timeframe 2010 to 2020 for EU27
• Increase retrofit rate from 1,7 % p.a. (BAU) to 2,8%
• Improved ambition level (in the area of cost optimality)
• Estimated results*• Additional energy related investment: 30 billion € p.a.• Total energy related investment: 65 billion € p.a.• Total invest (energy and non-energy): 100 billion € p.a.
(turnover building industry in 2009: 1,2 trillion EURO)• Negative CO2 abatement costs
* based on research done by Ecofys in the framework of the impact assessment of the
EPBD recast / energy saving action plan (using BEAM²)
29/11/2011 Thomas Boermans
© ECOFYS | |
Different renovation tracks – indicative only
2010 20502020 2030 2040
track 1
track 2
Track 1: fast renovation: (very) high speed, average ambition level
Track 2: deep renovation: average speed, (very) high ambition level
CO
2 –
em
issi
ons
EU
build
ing s
tock
29/11/2011 Thomas Boermans
© ECOFYS | |
Enabling factors for retrofit (examples)
Political/Legal
• review (EU/national) definitions of major renovation, see
www.eceee.org/press/Extending_EE_requirements/
• define ambition level for “deep renovation”
• secure balance of interests in investor user conflict
Financial/fiscal
• provide soft loans at reduced interest rates and longer loan
duration (e.g. 20 years, state guarantees)
• fiscal instruments (e.g. reduced VAT)
Information
• information/realisation campaigns
• ensure proper training and capacity building
29/11/2011 Thomas Boermans
Thomas Boermans
Unit Manager Built Environment Strategies
E: t. [email protected]
T: +49 221 270 70-151
W: www.ecofys.com