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THEORY OF CHANGE PLANNING SESSION
Brian Lamb OBE
@ WANDSWORTH ADVICE23 JULY 2014 WANDSWORTHADVICE.ORG.UK
The Issue
Contrary to Marx’s famous critique that philosophers have
only sought to interpret the world not to change it –
advocates have too often sought to change the world without first
interpreting it.
“A theory of change clearly expresses the relationships between actions and hoped for results, and could be described as a roadmap of the strategies and belief systems that make positive change in the lives of individuals and the community.”
THEORY OF CHANGE
Logic Model
• Theory of Change models build from basic Logic Models. • Logic Models form the basis of most project management
programmes. • Logic models illustrate program components, and creating one
helps stakeholders clearly identify outcomes, inputs and activities.
• They are helpful for breaking down the basic components of a plan and are especially useful where there is a know relationship with an action and its consequence.
• They often follow a format similar to this;
Logic Model
Logic Model
Theory of Change
Social Theories
Theory of Change and Planning • Theory of Change Models aim test why you select the activities
you do and links between this and the outcomes you expect. • They pose more clearly what the aim and underlying
assumptions of advocacy approaches are, their interrelationship to other parts of the political system and stakeholders.
• They are particularly helpful where there are multiple teams involved in the production and delivery of plans.
• They also help to deliver clarity about the respective roles of different teams in the process and provide a good basis for evaluation.
Theory of Change• Theories of Change link outcomes and activities to explain HOW
and WHY a strategy leads to those changes. • It is therefore more complex and rich than logic models and more
suited to advocacy campaigns. • Advocacy campaigns are complex as they have to select from a
number of different potential strategies and make assumptions about why something changes.
• There are many different ways change can be attempted and a Theory of Change provides a process for testing out assumptions and deciding on what will be bring about the desired change.
• Advocacy is trying to align research evidence, with the appropriate campaign and advocacy interventions to achieve the influence to secure the change they need.
What are the Theory of Change Steps?
1. Stating a clear aim-the final impact you need your advocacy to have;
2. Mapping activities to achieve your campaign aim-usually in reverse order the impact first;
3. Mapping Outcomes and how to get there – using ‘so that’ chains to ensure the links between activities and outcomes are understood and in place;
4. Understanding how social change happens and aligning that with your selected activities-Outcome mapping;
5. Ensuring that Capacity of the organisation to achieve change;
6. Agree outcome Measures and Assumptions.
Definitions-what’s in a word? • Impact-the ultimate effect on the lives of those you seeking
change for• Strategies-the overall grouping of types of activities that you
judge will lead to the change you are seeking• Outcomes-significant changes that lead to the final impact and
a precondition of them • Outputs the specific results of work programmes designed to
achieve your outcomes• Activities-the work you do to achieve those outputs• Inputs the resources you deploy to be able to undertake the
activities to achieve the outputs
Testing your theory of change • When you look at the total picture, do you believe that
the theory makes sense? • Do the stages make sense as the logical steps toward
the long-term outcome-can we give our world famous impression of what they look like?
• Can we be able to bring about the outcomes at the levels we have predicted?
• Is there anything going on in the real world that may make it difficult to get this theory off the ground the way we’ve planned it?
• What assumptions are you making about the world-your understanding of what needs to change?
Testing your Theory of Change • Is this theory of change PLAUSIBLE? Have we
created a compelling story about the pathway of change that would lead to the long-term goal ?
• Is this theory of change FEASIBLE? Do we have the capacities and resources to implement the strategies that would be required to produce the outcomes?
• Is this theory MEASURABLE? Have we specified how success will be measured clearly enough that we can recognize progress? Are there indicators for each outcome in a way that a researcher or evaluator can use?
WORKED EXAMPLES
So that Chain
Change LawChange Public
AttitudeChange Policy and PracticeS
trat
egie
sIn
puts
Out
puts
Out
com
es
Impa
ctState your strategies-the really key ways by
which you hope to bring about the change
you are seeking
Describe the outputs from that work you
expect to happen as a result.
State your final impact here-e.g changes to
people lives or the final changes you are
seeking
Theory of Change Mapping
Describe the outcomes from that work you expect to happen as a result.
Agree the measures of your Impact and
Outcomes
State your Activities-the specific work you
will undertake to implement the
strategies
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