The Swedish Public Employment Service and Regional Labour Market Monitoring
Josef LannemyrVictor Tanaka14 september 2010
The Swedish labour market:
Brief historical background
From poor agrarian country to rich indusrialized nation • Between 1850 and 1970 Sweden had the
highest economic growth rate in the world (next to Japan)
• 1850 -1950:– Rationalizations of agricultural methods– Public school reform 1842– Rapid population growth– City enlargements– The economic post – war boom
The Swedish Model:
• A large privately owned industrial sector
• A large public sector financed by taxes
• A large trade union movement
• The state playing an active role in labour market policies
• Ambitions to achieve an even distribution of income and wealth
• ”The middle way”
1950s to 60s – The golden age
• 1960-65 yearly GDP-growth average of 5.3 percent and producitivity growth average of 5.6 percent
• Restructuring model with active labour market policy (Rehn-Meidner)
• Low unemployment, around 2 percent
Percent
19611963
19651967
19691971
19731975
19771979
19811983
19851987
19891991
19931995
19971999
20012003
20052007
20092011
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Source: EcoWin, SPES
line = historical avarage
GDP-growth in Sweden1961-2009, forecast 2010-2011
Structrual change in the labour market• Problems became obvious during oil crisis
1973-74• Cost crisis – decreased competitiveness• (shipyard, textile, steel)• Internationally dependent => dramatic shifts
1990s A bursting financial bubble• The swedish financial crisis• 80s deregulation of the financial market –
especially loan restrictions• Rapid increase in lending focusing on the real
estate sector• Public finances under strain• Mass unemployment (in a swedish perspective)• OECD – average since 1993
Percent
19871988
19891990
19911992
19931994
19951996
19971998
19992000
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Source: Statistics Sweden, trended
Umemployment, age 16-64January 1987 - August 2010
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Hungary i
Sweden i
Unemployment rate, Sweden and Hungary 1991-2009 (OECD, harmonised
unemployment rates, ILO defintion)
90s and 2000s
• EU membership 1995
• Dot-com buble 2000 – mild downturn
• Death of the Swedish model?
– Large public sector
– High income taxes
– Small business sector (than EU and OECD average)
Present situation
• Sweden has an unemployment rate that is below EU-27.
• During the last couple of years Sweden has had an unemployment rate at about 6 percent.
• However, during 2009 the unemployment rate rose to over 8 percent, largely because of the international economic recession
• New Government
Statistical snapshots
Percent
19871988
19891990
19911992
19931994
19951996
19971998
19992000
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
WomenMen
Source: Statistics Sweden, trended
Umemployment, age 16-64January 1987 - August 2010
Unemployment in EU
Source: EU LFS data
EU. July 2010, Harmonized unemployment rate ; Total
Youth unemployment in EU
Source: EU LFS data
EU. July 2010, Harmonized unemployment rate - age class 15-24; Total
Year
Number of persons
20082009
20102011
20122013
20142015
20162017
20182019
202095000
100000
105000
110000
115000
120000
125000
130000
Outflow of retired personsInflow of young persons
Source: PES, Statistics Sweden
Inflow of young persons and outflow of retired persons from labour market
Number of persons
19601965
19701975
19801985
19901995
20002005
20080
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
Källa: Statistics Sweden
Immigration to Sweden
Age
Share of population
2021
2223
2425
2627
2829
3031
3233
3435
3637
3839
4041
4243
4445
4647
4849
5051
5253
5455
5657
5859
6061
6263
6420
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Born in foreign countriesBorn in Sweden
Source: PES
Employment in single year classes
Mission
The Swedish Public Employment Service
Mission:
• Improve the functioning of the labour market (no distortion of competition)
The Swedish Public Employment Service
Mission:
• Improve the functioning of the labour market (no distortion of competition)
• Give priority to weak groups
The Swedish Public Employment Service
Mission:
• Improve the functioning of the labour market (no distortion of competition)
• Give priority to weak groups
• Equal service across the country
The Swedish Public Employment Service
Mission:
• Improve the functioning of the labour market (no distortion of competition)
• Give priority to weak groups
• Equal service across the country
• Promote geographic and professional mobility
The Swedish Public Employment Service
Mission (continued):
• Promote diversity/plurality and work against discrimination
The Swedish Public Employment Service
In numbers
The Swedish Public Employment Service
In numbers:
• Government budget for Labour market of almost 10 000 million USD
The Swedish Public Employment Service
In numbers:
• Government budget for Labour market of almost 10 000 million USD, of which about
– 8,5 % on management and administration costs;
The Swedish Public Employment Service
In numbers:
• Government budget for Labour market of almost 10 000 million USD, of which about
– 8,5 % on management and administration costs;
– 53,5 % on benefits;
The Swedish Public Employment Service
High benefits and compensation rates
In numbers:
• Government budget for Labour market of almost 10 000 million USD, of which about
– 8,5 % on management and administration costs;
– 53,5 % on benefits;
– 10,5 % on job market programs; and
The Swedish Public Employment Service
In numbers:
• Government budget for Labour market of almost 10 000 million USD, of which about
– 8,5 % on management and administration costs;
– 53,5 % on benefits;
– 10,5 % on job market programs; and
– 23,1 % on employment subsidies.
The Swedish Public Employment Service
Public expenditure on labour market policy
In numbers (continued):
• More than 12 000 employees
The Swedish Public Employment Service
In numbers (continued):
• More than 12 000 employees
• 30 % of all vacancies
The Swedish Public Employment Service
In numbers (continued):
• More than 12 000 employees
• 30 % of all vacancies
• 177 000 in job market programs (3,6 %)
The Swedish Public Employment Service
In numbers (continued):
• More than 12 000 employees
• 30 % of all vacancies
• 177 000 in job market programs (3,6 %)
• 224 000 unemployed (4,6 %)
The Swedish Public Employment Service
The Swedish Public Employment service:
The forecasting system
Purpose
The Swedish Public Employment service:
The forecasting system
Purpose:
• From the beginning to satisfy regional needs (employers)
The Swedish Public Employment service:
The forecasting system
Purpose:
• From the beginning to satisfy regional needs (employers)
• Add value to the whole organisation
The Swedish Public Employment service:
The forecasting system
Purpose:
• From the beginning to satisfy regional needs (employers)
• Add value to the whole organisation
• ”Targeted” groups: unemployed, other job seekers, parliament, universities, etc.
The Swedish Public Employment service:
The forecasting system
Purpose (continued):
• Provide job market information
The Swedish Public Employment service:
The forecasting system
Purpose (continued):
• Provide job market information in order to
– improve matching (employment offices)
The Swedish Public Employment service:
The forecasting system
Purpose (continued):
• Provide job market information in order to
– improve matching (employment offices)
– craft labour market policies
The Swedish Public Employment service:
The forecasting system
Purpose (continued):
• Provide job market information in order to
– improve matching (employment offices)
– craft labour market policies
– plan labour market programs
The Swedish Public Employment service:
The forecasting system
Purpose (continued):
• Provide job market information in order to
– improve matching (employment offices)
– craft labour market policies
– plan labour market programs
– plan budget
The Swedish Public Employment service:
The forecasting system
Purpose (continued):
• Provide job market information in order to
– improve matching (employment offices)
– craft labour market policies
– plan labour market programs
– plan budget
– make individual choices (job seekers)
The Swedish Public Employment service:
The forecasting system
Method:
• Questionnaries
The Swedish Public Employment service:
The forecasting system
Method:
• Questionnaries
• Private sector: representative sample (Statistics Sweden; stratified according to counties, industry, and workplace-size)
The Swedish Public Employment service:
The forecasting system
Method:
• Questionnaries
• Private sector: representative sample (Statistics Sweden; stratified according to counties, industry, and workplace-size)
• Public sector: full coverage
The Swedish Public Employment service:
The forecasting system
Method:
• Questionnaries
• Private sector: representative sample (Statistics Sweden; stratified according to counties, industry, and workplace-size)
• Public sector: full coverage
• Internal information system
The Swedish Public Employment service:
The forecasting system
Method (continued):
• International, national and regional monitoring
The Swedish Public Employment service:
The forecasting system
The Öresund region:
Skåne
Zealand
-3.7 million -20 000 commuters
Process
The Swedish Public Employment service:
The forecasting system
Process:
• Sep/Mar:– Interviews with employers
– Results registered through internet application
The Swedish Public Employment service:
The forecasting system
Process:
• Sep/Mar:– Interviews with employers
– Results registered through internet application
• Nov/May:– Analysis and writing (regional and national)
The Swedish Public Employment service:
The forecasting system
Process:
• Sep/Mar:– Interviews with employers
– Results registered through internet application
• Nov/May:– Analysis and writing (regional and national)
• Dec/Jun:– Press release and published reports
The Swedish Public Employment service:
The forecasting system
Output:
• Regional labour market outlooks
• National labour market outlook
The Swedish Public Employment service:
The forecasting system
Output:
• Regional labour market outlooks
• National labour market outlook
• Occupational forecasts (“Yrkeskompassen”)
– Short term outlooks
– Long term outlooks
The Swedish Public Employment service:
The forecasting system
Example: Carpenter
Yrkeskompassen
Forecasting projects in…
…Bulgaria, Belarus, China, Croatia, Cyprus, Romania, Malta, countries in northern Africa, amongst others…
The Swedish Public Employment service:
The forecasting system
Employment Office:......................................................... Contact: ...................................................................
Basic information Workplace:....................................................................... Phone:...................................................................... Address: ........................................................................... Fax:..........................................................................
Postal address:.................................................................. E-mail:.....................................................................
Workplace no:.................................................................. Type of enterprise: ..................................................
Contact: ............................................................................ SNI code:.................................................................
Market developments
1. Has there been or do you expect any change in demand for your products/ services? (Disregard seasonal fluctuations. Put a cross in the relevant box.)
Decreased Unchanged Increased
In the past 6 months
In the next 6 months
6-12 months ahead
Capacity utilisation
2. By how much can your workplace increase production (industry), alternatively sales of products and services (private services)? (Put a cross in the relevant box)
Percentage
0 1-5 6-10 11-20 21-30 more
Before you need to invest in premises/machinery/ equipmentBefore you need to increase the workforce by hiring new staff
Employment and recruitment
3. Number of employees at your workplace State the number of persons employed and estimate your future employment requirement All employees (conditional tenure + temporary staff, excluding workers paid by the hour) One year ago: ................ Current: ............... One year ahead: ................. Two years ahead: .................
(Estimate the approximate number based on your knowledge of your enterprise and line of business/industry)
4a. Number of staff you expect to hire and staff turnover at your workplace (permanent
jobs + temporary posts, excl. employed by the hour) but not seasonal and holiday workers which must be entered separately in Question 4b
State the number of persons and tell us what your expectations are for the future
a) Number of employees one year ago: ................ same number as in Question 3
b) Number who retired/left in the past year: ................ minus
c) Number hired in the past year: ................ plus
d) Number of employees currently: ................ current, a – b + c = d = same number as in Q 3
e) Number expected to retire/leave in coming year: ................ minus
f) Number you expect to hire in coming year: ................ plus
g) Number of employees one year ahead: ................ one year ahead, d – e + f = g = same number as Q 3
4b. Number of seasonal and holiday workers at your workplace (e.g. in tourism and holiday work for young persons)
State the number of persons and tell us what your expectations are for the future Total in past 12-month period Total in coming12-month period
Number of staff hired: ................................. Number of staff you expect to hire: ...................................
5. Within which occupations will you need to hire staff in the coming year?
ISCO-code Occupation Number of persons Qualification requirements (to be filled in by EO/CLB) Trained/ Work skilled experience
......................... .................................... ...................... .........................................
......................... .................................... ...................... .........................................
......................... .................................... ...................... .........................................
......................... .................................... ...................... .........................................
......................... .................................... ...................... .........................................
......................... .......................................... ...................... .........................................
Shortage of labour 6a. Shortage of labour when recruiting
1) Have you encountered any shortage of labour when recruiting during the last 6 months?
(Mark one alternative with a cross)
Yes
No
2) If Yes, state the number of vacancies where you have encountered a shortage ..................................................... of which, number of vacancies that you have not succeeded in filling
6b. Shortage of labour that has led you not even to try to recruit (hidden shortage)
1) Have you during the last 6 months refrained from trying to recruit because of shortage of qualified labour? (Mark one alternative with a cross)
Yes
No
If No to both questions 6a and 6b, go to Question 8
2) If Yes, State the number of vacancies for which you have not even tried to recruit owing to shortage of qualified labour. .................................
6c. Shortage of labour in particular occupations
Number of Total of which Has the AMSYK occupation (state number) requiring requiring shortage (to be completed vacancies training occupation prevented by Af/Lan) (state number) experience expansion of (state number) workplace (mark with a cross) ......................... .................... .................... ...................... ........................ ......................... .................... .................... ...................... ........................ ......................... .................... .................... ...................... ........................ ......................... .................... .................... ...................... ........................ ......................... .................... .................... ...................... ........................ ......................... .................... .................... ...................... ........................
7a. How was hiring affected by the labour shortage? (Put a cross in the box by more than one alternative if relevant)
We were unable to hire staff
It took longer than normal to hire
We lowered our requirements in respect of education/training/qualifications/skills
We lowered our requirements in respect of experience in the occupation
We lowered our requirements in respect of social qualifications and skills
We recruited staff abroad
We offered higher pay
We offered other benefits
Other measures
7b. What consequences did the labour shortage have for your workplace? (Put a cross in the box by more than one alternative if relevant)
We hired in staff from an agency
Existing staff had to work more
Internal training given to existing staff
We bought in services (including outsourcing production)
We had to turn down orders
Production/service decreased
Planned expansion was postponed
We considered moving all or some of our production abroad
The labour shortage had no consequences
8. Can you quantify by how much the average pay (per employee) has increased in the past
year? (Put a cross by the percentage alternative that matches each group)
Percentage
Less than 1
1 - <2 2 - <3 3 - <4 4 - <5 5 - <6 6 - <77 or more
In total at workplace
LO area or similar
TCO and SACO areas or similar
Space for your own notes:...........................................................................................
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Thank you for your participation!
1 b) Estimation of the labour market situation for different occupations
Occupational area
Nr
OccupationLarge
surplusSurplus Balance Shortage
Large shortage
Science, 1 Physicists
technology 2 Meteorologist
and computing 3 Chemist
4 Geologist, Geophysicist etc
5 Mathematician
6 Statistician
7
Computer programmer, Computer systems designer, System architect, Computer engineer
8 Programmer, computing
9 IT-strategist, IT-analyst
10
Computer technologist (Network technician)
11 PC-technician
12 Architect, Town planner
13 Civil engineer (construction)
14
Engineer, Master of engineering, electrical power
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