KITTY VAN DER HEIJDEN, DIRECTOR EUROPE WRI
THE ROAD TO PARIS
ZERO EMISSIONS CONFERENCE
27 OCTOBER 2015
THINGS ARE HEATING UP
Source: NOAA
Source: NOAA
REASONS TO BE CHEERFUL
[Paris is not Copenhagen]
1. Global action - INDC
2. Major players play ball
3. Climate finance
4. Clean energy
5. Citizen / corporate voice
REASONS TO BE CHEERFUL
1. Global action - INDC
2. Major players play ball
3. Climate finance
4. Clean energy
5. Citizen / corporate voice
INDCS SUBMITTED TO DATE
126 INDCs (154 countries) ≈ 87% of Global Emissions
Source: WRI‘s CAIT Climate Data Explorer / OCN
DO INDCS ADD UP?
Source: WRI‘s CAIT Climate Data Explorer / OCN
INDCs: 90%+ GHG Reduction Targets (September 29th)
INDCS: GHG TARGET TYPE
AGGREGATE IMPACT OF INDCS
Source: Climate Action Tracker (CAT), Climate Analytics,/Ecofys/NewClimate/PIK
Pledges 2.5 - 2.7
INDCS: ADAPTATION
REASONS TO BE CHEERFUL
1. Global action - INDC
2. Major players play ball
3. Climate finance
4. Clean energy
5. Citizen / corporate voice
U.S. HAS A CLIMATE POLICY AT LAST
(Photo: Georgetown University)
US AND CHINA AGREEMENT
U.S. Embassy, The Hague/Flickr
• US and China
increase domestic
action
• Working towards a
strong Paris
Agreement
• Climate Finance
GERMAN-BRAZIL SUMMIT
DYNAMICS ARE CHANGING
REASONS TO BE CHEERFUL
1. Global action - INDC
2. Major players play ball
3. Climate finance
4. Clean energy
5. Citizen / corporate voice
CLIMATE FINANCE
- MDBs stepping up to the plate
- Bilateral announcements
- Shifting investment
Source: New Climate Economy
FROM BILLIONS TO TRILLIONS
$100 billionAnnual commitment of rich countries by 2020
$90 trillionGlobal investment in
energy, cities, and landscapes 2015-2030
“ TRAGEDY OF THE HORIZON ”
“Shifts in our climate bring potentially profound implications for insurers, financial stability and
the economy”– Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England,
Sept. 30 2015
Image: Wikimedia/World Economic Forum
SHIFTING THE TRILLIONS
REASONS TO BE CHEERFUL
1. Global action - INDC
2. Major players play ball
3. Climate finance
4. Clean energy
5. Citizen / corporate voice
COAL IS THE ‘NEW TOBACCO’
CHINA’S ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION
IS VERY COSTLY
0
2
4
6
8
10
Co
st
of
en
vir
on
me
nta
l d
eg
rad
ati
on
as
% o
f G
DP
eq
uiv
ale
nt
9.2% OF GDP
(World Bank reports, 2005-2012)
INNOVATION IN MITIGATION TECHNOLOGIES
(WRI chart using OECDstat data, 2013)
Pate
nts
ap
pli
cati
on
s
ind
exe
d to
20
00
le
ve
lsTotal renewable &
non-fossil technologies
Solar PV
Wind
Solar thermal
Hydro (excluding
conventional)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
All Patents
INDIA AS AN EXAMPLE:
REASONS TO BE CHEERFUL
1. Global action - INDC
2. Major players play ball
3. Climate finance
4. Clean energy
5. Citizen / corporate voice
Image: Flickr/Pettter Duvander
1000+ COMPANIES SUPPORT PRICE ON CARBON
60+ COMPANIES COMMIT TO SCIENCE BASED
TARGETS
Images: WRI; Wikimedia; Source: Science Based Targets Initiative
50% emissions reductions by
2020 (from 2007)
28% emissions reductions
by 2025 (from 2010)
30% emissions reductions by
2020 (from 2010)
COMPACT OF MAYORS: 200+ CITIES TAKING ACTION
Source: Compact of Mayors
HUGE OPPORTUNITY
75%of 2050 urban
infrastructure in
India not yet built
LANDSCAPE RESTORATION
Image: WRI
POLITICAL MOMENTUM IS BUILDING
(Photo: Erland Howden/Flickr)
POPE FRANCIS: CLIMATE CHANGE A MORAL ISSUE
Image: Flickr/Catholic Church England and Wales
PUBLIC OPINION IN USA IS CHANGING
Source: UT Energy Poll, annotated by Bloomberg
Source: UT Energy Poll, annotated by Bloomberg
IN CONCLUSION: 2009 VS. 2015
THE POLITICAL AND ‘REAL ECONOMY’ HAVE CHANGED
41
BUT WE ARE NOT THERE YET …
Source: European Environmental Bureau Newsletter # 76, October 2015
BUILDING BRIDGES
• Ratchet mechanism
• Long term goal
• Transparency
• Climate Finance
WE ALL NEED A GOOD OUTCOME IN PARIS
HANG IN THERE !
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