KITTY VAN DER HEIJDEN, DIRECTOR EUROPE WRI

THE ROAD TO PARIS

ZERO EMISSIONS CONFERENCE

27 OCTOBER 2015

THINGS ARE HEATING UP

Source: NOAA

Source: NOAA

REASONS TO BE CHEERFUL

[Paris is not Copenhagen]

1. Global action - INDC

2. Major players play ball

3. Climate finance

4. Clean energy

5. Citizen / corporate voice

REASONS TO BE CHEERFUL

1. Global action - INDC

2. Major players play ball

3. Climate finance

4. Clean energy

5. Citizen / corporate voice

INDCS SUBMITTED TO DATE

126 INDCs (154 countries) ≈ 87% of Global Emissions

Source: WRI‘s CAIT Climate Data Explorer / OCN

DO INDCS ADD UP?

Source: WRI‘s CAIT Climate Data Explorer / OCN

INDCs: 90%+ GHG Reduction Targets (September 29th)

INDCS: GHG TARGET TYPE

AGGREGATE IMPACT OF INDCS

Source: Climate Action Tracker (CAT), Climate Analytics,/Ecofys/NewClimate/PIK

Pledges 2.5 - 2.7

INDCS: ADAPTATION

REASONS TO BE CHEERFUL

1. Global action - INDC

2. Major players play ball

3. Climate finance

4. Clean energy

5. Citizen / corporate voice

U.S. HAS A CLIMATE POLICY AT LAST

(Photo: Georgetown University)

US AND CHINA AGREEMENT

U.S. Embassy, The Hague/Flickr

• US and China

increase domestic

action

• Working towards a

strong Paris

Agreement

• Climate Finance

GERMAN-BRAZIL SUMMIT

DYNAMICS ARE CHANGING

REASONS TO BE CHEERFUL

1. Global action - INDC

2. Major players play ball

3. Climate finance

4. Clean energy

5. Citizen / corporate voice

CLIMATE FINANCE

- MDBs stepping up to the plate

- Bilateral announcements

- Shifting investment

Source: New Climate Economy

FROM BILLIONS TO TRILLIONS

$100 billionAnnual commitment of rich countries by 2020

$90 trillionGlobal investment in

energy, cities, and landscapes 2015-2030

“ TRAGEDY OF THE HORIZON ”

“Shifts in our climate bring potentially profound implications for insurers, financial stability and

the economy”– Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England,

Sept. 30 2015

Image: Wikimedia/World Economic Forum

SHIFTING THE TRILLIONS

REASONS TO BE CHEERFUL

1. Global action - INDC

2. Major players play ball

3. Climate finance

4. Clean energy

5. Citizen / corporate voice

COAL IS THE ‘NEW TOBACCO’

CHINA’S ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION

IS VERY COSTLY

0

2

4

6

8

10

Co

st

of

en

vir

on

me

nta

l d

eg

rad

ati

on

as

% o

f G

DP

eq

uiv

ale

nt

9.2% OF GDP

(World Bank reports, 2005-2012)

INNOVATION IN MITIGATION TECHNOLOGIES

(WRI chart using OECDstat data, 2013)

Pate

nts

ap

pli

cati

on

s

ind

exe

d to

20

00

le

ve

lsTotal renewable &

non-fossil technologies

Solar PV

Wind

Solar thermal

Hydro (excluding

conventional)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

All Patents

INDIA AS AN EXAMPLE:

REASONS TO BE CHEERFUL

1. Global action - INDC

2. Major players play ball

3. Climate finance

4. Clean energy

5. Citizen / corporate voice

Image: Flickr/Pettter Duvander

1000+ COMPANIES SUPPORT PRICE ON CARBON

60+ COMPANIES COMMIT TO SCIENCE BASED

TARGETS

Images: WRI; Wikimedia; Source: Science Based Targets Initiative

50% emissions reductions by

2020 (from 2007)

28% emissions reductions

by 2025 (from 2010)

30% emissions reductions by

2020 (from 2010)

COMPACT OF MAYORS: 200+ CITIES TAKING ACTION

Source: Compact of Mayors

HUGE OPPORTUNITY

75%of 2050 urban

infrastructure in

India not yet built

LANDSCAPE RESTORATION

Image: WRI

POLITICAL MOMENTUM IS BUILDING

(Photo: Erland Howden/Flickr)

POPE FRANCIS: CLIMATE CHANGE A MORAL ISSUE

Image: Flickr/Catholic Church England and Wales

PUBLIC OPINION IN USA IS CHANGING

Source: UT Energy Poll, annotated by Bloomberg

Source: UT Energy Poll, annotated by Bloomberg

IN CONCLUSION: 2009 VS. 2015

THE POLITICAL AND ‘REAL ECONOMY’ HAVE CHANGED

41

BUT WE ARE NOT THERE YET …

Source: European Environmental Bureau Newsletter # 76, October 2015

BUILDING BRIDGES

• Ratchet mechanism

• Long term goal

• Transparency

• Climate Finance

WE ALL NEED A GOOD OUTCOME IN PARIS

HANG IN THERE !