U.S. National Security
... AND THE RISING CHINESE THREAT
Elias Lopez
Economic Security
Rising Military Power
WMD Proliferation
Space and Counterspace
One China Policy
Rising Threats
OVERV IEW
Economic Security
• Measuring the Size of China’s Economy
• Purchasing Power & GDP Size
• Implications for China and U.S. – China Economic Ties
• U.S. – Chinese Economies: Will China overtake the U.S. Economy?
• Chinese Takeovers of U.S. Companies
The RED Army RISING
THE PEOPLES LIBERATION ARMY
•Modernization preparing for conflict in Taiwan Straight, including possibility of U.S. intervention
COMPREHENSIVE TRANSFORMATION
•Enhancing China’s Strategic Strike Capabilities
•Anti-access/Area Denial Capabilities
•Direct-ascent Anti-Satellite weapon
NUCLEAR FORCE MODERNIZATION
•Advanced Technology Acquisition
•Land attack, Supersonic – Anti-ship, & guided missile destroyers
BALLISTIC AND CRUISE
MISSILES
•PRC Computer Network Intrusions
•Gathering political, military, corporate-strategic & scientific information to close technological gaps
CYBERWARFARE CAPABILITIES
•ICE Initiated 400 + Investigations between 2000 – 2006 for illicit export of arms and technologies
•ICE Identified PRC as leading espionage threat
ADVANCED TECHNOLOGIES ACQUISITIONS
Video No Longer Functional
Weapons of Mass Destruction and Missile Proliferation
Nuclear and Missile Technology Sales
Chemical Sales to Iran
North Korea’s Missile and Nuclear Weapons Program
Space & Counterspace
Security Implications
Offensive Military Signals
American Policy Options
ANTI-SATELLITE WEAPONS TEST
11 JANUARY 2007: 5:25PM EST
Security Implications
PRC Intentional Satellite
Destruction
Increased Space Debris in LEO
Increase Risk to U.S. Satellites &
over 700 Spacecrafts
Capability to attack U.S. satellites
Tracking & Targeting
Capabilities by Military & Intel
Satellites
DoD Est. by 2010 ASAT production able to destroy
most U.S. satellites in LEO
Develop Stealth
Satellite Technology
Satellite Defense Systems
Unilateral Agreement to
Space Weaponization
Offensive Military Signals
POSSIBLE “SELF CONFIDENCE” TEST• Countering U.S. Forces in possible Taiwan dispute• Weapons challenge U.S. Space Dominance
2006 U.S. NATIONAL SPACE POLICY RESPONSE• Denial of space to adversaries “hostile” to U.S. Interests• Before U.S. Space Policy PRC conducted 3 ASAT test and ground based
laser to illuminate a U.S. satellite in “blinding” tests
PRODING THE UNITED STATES IN ARMS CONTROL?• Analysts cited PRC’s “peaceful motive was to prompt U.S. to engage in
space arms control• In Dec 2006, U.S. solely voted against UN Res. on “Prevention of Arms
Race In Outer Space” - PAROS
American Policy Options
“ONE – CHINA” POLICY
Sovereignty Over Taiwan
PRC Use of Force Against Taiwan
Democracy versus Independence
SUMMARY
Economic Security
WMD Proliferation
Rising Military Power
Anti-Satellite Weapons
China – U.S. Relations
One China Policy
Questions?QUESTIONS?
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