U.S. National Security

... AND THE RISING CHINESE THREAT

Elias Lopez

Economic Security

Rising Military Power

WMD Proliferation

Space and Counterspace

One China Policy

Rising Threats

OVERV IEW

Economic Security

• Measuring the Size of China’s Economy

• Purchasing Power & GDP Size

• Implications for China and U.S. – China Economic Ties

• U.S. – Chinese Economies: Will China overtake the U.S. Economy?

• Chinese Takeovers of U.S. Companies

The RED Army RISING

THE PEOPLES LIBERATION ARMY

•Modernization preparing for conflict in Taiwan Straight, including possibility of U.S. intervention

COMPREHENSIVE TRANSFORMATION

•Enhancing China’s Strategic Strike Capabilities

•Anti-access/Area Denial Capabilities

•Direct-ascent Anti-Satellite weapon

NUCLEAR FORCE MODERNIZATION

•Advanced Technology Acquisition

•Land attack, Supersonic – Anti-ship, & guided missile destroyers

BALLISTIC AND CRUISE

MISSILES

•PRC Computer Network Intrusions

•Gathering political, military, corporate-strategic & scientific information to close technological gaps

CYBERWARFARE CAPABILITIES

•ICE Initiated 400 + Investigations between 2000 – 2006 for illicit export of arms and technologies

•ICE Identified PRC as leading espionage threat

ADVANCED TECHNOLOGIES ACQUISITIONS

Video No Longer Functional

Weapons of Mass Destruction and Missile Proliferation

Nuclear and Missile Technology Sales

Chemical Sales to Iran

North Korea’s Missile and Nuclear Weapons Program

Space & Counterspace

Security Implications

Offensive Military Signals

American Policy Options

ANTI-SATELLITE WEAPONS TEST

11 JANUARY 2007: 5:25PM EST

Security Implications

PRC Intentional Satellite

Destruction

Increased Space Debris in LEO

Increase Risk to U.S. Satellites &

over 700 Spacecrafts

Capability to attack U.S. satellites

Tracking & Targeting

Capabilities by Military & Intel

Satellites

DoD Est. by 2010 ASAT production able to destroy

most U.S. satellites in LEO

Develop Stealth

Satellite Technology

Satellite Defense Systems

Unilateral Agreement to

Space Weaponization

Offensive Military Signals

POSSIBLE “SELF CONFIDENCE” TEST• Countering U.S. Forces in possible Taiwan dispute• Weapons challenge U.S. Space Dominance

2006 U.S. NATIONAL SPACE POLICY RESPONSE• Denial of space to adversaries “hostile” to U.S. Interests• Before U.S. Space Policy PRC conducted 3 ASAT test and ground based

laser to illuminate a U.S. satellite in “blinding” tests

PRODING THE UNITED STATES IN ARMS CONTROL?• Analysts cited PRC’s “peaceful motive was to prompt U.S. to engage in

space arms control• In Dec 2006, U.S. solely voted against UN Res. on “Prevention of Arms

Race In Outer Space” - PAROS

American Policy Options

“ONE – CHINA” POLICY

Sovereignty Over Taiwan

PRC Use of Force Against Taiwan

Democracy versus Independence

SUMMARY

Economic Security

WMD Proliferation

Rising Military Power

Anti-Satellite Weapons

China – U.S. Relations

One China Policy

Questions?QUESTIONS?