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The Energy Nexus
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Energy in History
• Domestic animals and slaves • Biomass and wind and water power supplement till 18th
century • Coal and the steam engine (ships and locomotives) –
late 18th century • Oil, gasoline and diesel (internal combustion followed by
turbines) – late 19th century • Nuclear – by 1950s • Wind, photovoltaic and batteries – known since early 20th
century, but not up-scaled until recently
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Primary Energy Sources Classification
• Coal • Oil • Gas • Nuclear • Combustionable renewables and waste • Hydro/Geothermal/Solar/Wind
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World total primary energy supply by fuel
International Energy Agency, available at: http://www.iea.org/statist/index.htm
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IEA “New policies Scenario”
• According to WEO-2017 of IEA, four large-scale shifts in the global energy system scene: – Rapid deployment and falling costs of clean
energy technologies – Growing electrification of energy – Shift to a more services-oriented economy
and a cleaner energy mix in China – Shale gas and tight (shale) oil in the United
States
• Global economics growth by 3.4%, world population reaching at 9 billion, very fast track urbanization: Global energy demand rising by 30%.
• Largest share in demand growth comes from India and Southeast Asian countries.
• Natural gas and renewables will be the leading components to meet the rising demand; the share of coal declines, oil stagnates.
• By 2030, China will be the largest nuclear energy producer, overtaking US.
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• Renewables capture two-thirds of global investment in power plants as they become, for many countries, the least-cost source of new generation.
• By 2040, total share of renewables will reach at 40%
• Electricity is the rising force among worldwide end-uses of energy, making up 40% of the rise in final consumption to 2040.
• To meet the rising demand, China needs to add the equivalent of today’s US power system to its electricity infrastructure by 2040, and India needs to add a power system the size of today’s European Union.
• China is entering a new phase in its development, with emphasis in energy policy now firmly on electricity, natural gas and cleaner, high efficiency and digital technologies.
• US, with the shale gas and tight oil revolution, is a net exporter of gas, and will become a net exporter of oil by late 2020s (accounting for 80% of the increase in oil supply by 2025).
• Till 2020s low oil prices, afterwards, declining reserves, more oil and higher prices.
• LNG (liquified natural gas) will account for the 90% percent of the increase in long distance gas trade to 2040.
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• China’s emissions plateau by 2030 and then start declining. The outcome of projections is far from enough to avoid severe impacts of climate change.
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Will there be a peak of oil?
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• Theoretically yes! But when and how? • Fundamentals behind Hubbert’s curve
– With increased cumulative production, production increases (the reinforcing production loop)
– With diminishing reserves, production declines (the balancing depletion loop).
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• All other factors influencing the scale and timing of the peak on the Hubbert’s curve: – Total reserve? How about unproven and emerging
reserves, ex. tight oil? – Development in alternative primary energy resources – Development in demand
• Pattern (increase peak and decline) robust but the timing and the scale of the peak, highly uncertain
• The constraint is not the reserve under the soil but the atmospheric sink
• Therefore “keep the oil under the soil”! Esc 307 - 2016
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Further discussion
• Can natural gas be a “transition” resource?
• Can nuclear energy be “transition” resource?
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Natural gas • Saves carbon compared to coal, at about 40% • There are abundant gas resources worldwide (proven
reserves increasing with the fracture –shale gas– technology
• Pipeline and LNG (liquified natural gas) shipments via sea freight is spreading
• 40% is not enough for global climate targets and the socio-technical lock-in in gas fueled infrastructure risks developments in genuine renewables, i.e. solar-wind and hydro
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Nuclear Power Today
• Worldwide, there are >441 nuclear power plants operating.
• About 70 under construction. • Last decade, nuclear based electric production
increased by 2.5% per year. • More than 30 countries own or install nuclear power
plants. • The nuclear power landscape once more changed after
the Fukushima accident in Japan in 2011. • Now, the developed nuclear nations are trying to
maintain their installed capacity. China and India are investing heavily. There are newcomers i.e. Turkey. Germany and Sweden are phasing out.
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A brief history of nuclear power • Research on the structure of elements and radioactivity
in early 20th century • The Manhattan Project, the acquisition of the “bomb” by
USA in 1945 and Hiroshima and Nagasaki massacers • Launching of the “peaceful nuclear” era after the second
world war • Signing of the NPT – Treaty on non-proliferation of
nuclear weapons • Rising of the global anti-nuclear concern in 70s,
deregulation of utilities in USA, 1979 Three Miles Island Accident
• The last power plant was ordered in US in 1978. By 2020 %27 of US nuclear capacity will be out of commission (if not rehabilitated).
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How Nuclear Power Works • Nuclear energy involves changes at the atomic
level through – Fission: a large atom is split into two smaller atoms of
different elements. – Fusion: two smaller atoms combine to form a larger
atom of a different element. • In both fission and fusion the mass of the
product is less than the mass of the starting material, the lost mass is converted to energy, according to – E=mc2
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• Fuel for nuclear power plants – All current plants use uranium-235 for fission.
• To make nuclear fuel, uranium ore is mined, purified into uranium dioxide, and enriched (U-235 separated from U-238).
• When U-235 is highly enriched, the spontaneous fission of an atom can trigger a chain reaction.
• A nuclear power plant reactor is designed to sustain a continous chain reaction but not allow it to amplify. This is achieved by modest enrichment, 4%U-235 and 96% U-238.
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Aspects of nuclear power assessment
– Uncertainty in geographic and temporal span of potential impacts;
• Problems of “safe radiation doses”; minor-major accidents; nuclear waste deposition.
– Eventual discounting of impacts on future generations.
• Problems of “safe radiation doses”; minor-major accidents; nuclear waste deposition.
– Military externalities (positive or negative?). – Climate change debate (see the
documentary, “climate of hope”.
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• Safe radiation doses! – Health screening studies show that the cancer
incidents are higher among the communities living around nuclear power plants
– Read famous medical doctor, Samuel Epstein and cell biologist John William Gofman (1918-2007)
– Time lags in cause and effect, slow gradual development of cancer confuses public discussions on safe radiation doses
• Major accidents – Three Miles Island, 28 March 1979,
Pennsylvania. – Chernobyl, 26 April 1986, Ukraine: estimated
long range cancer related deaths between 140000 and 475000.
– Fukushima, March 2011, Japan.
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• Nuclear wastes – Disposal of nuclear wastes
• Short term containment for short lived isotopes: in 10 years 97% radiation is lost.
• Long term containment for long lived isotopes: the real challenge, EPA recommends 10,000 year minimum containment; National Research Council of US 100,0000 years.
– Geological burial for long term containment is not practiced yet!
• Worldwide, nuclear waste is building 10,000 tons per year. All stored on site near nuclear power plants.
• While dismantling decommissioned plants, more nuclear wastes will be generated than produced during its entire lifetime.
• Storage of waste creates problems within developed nations, being transported to less developed countries.
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Nuclear Armement • NPT – Treaty on non-proliferation of nuclear weapons,
came in force in 1970. • 190 countries joined, five of them recognized as nuclear-
weapon states: USA, USSR, UK, France, China. • Elements of the treaty:
– Non-proliferation – Disarmement – Right to access to peaceful use of nuclear power.
• Current nuclear-weapon owners: Original five (grandfathering nuclear weapons) + “illegal” weapon bearers
Red colored – not signed the treaty. Other colors, with different accession dates.
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Nucelar weapons distribution Blue: NPT designated Red: Other states Dark blue: NATO nuclear weapons sharing Gree: States formerly possessing Yellow: Believed to have nuclear weapons.
Nuclear Power Controversy Summary
• Values matter. • Compensation is difficult, often not considered at all. • People’s rights (safety standards) are violated. • Rate of time discount, not applicable to economic
calculations, considering far reaching impacts. • Discontinuities are highly likely. • Uncertainties are not equal! • Therefore cannot be assessed on the basis of economic
rationality and “cost-benefit analysis” methodologies
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• A final note on “plutonium externality”! – Plutonium needs to be stored for 100.000
years. – Parsimoniously discount its influence on
future generations with a rate 0,01% – Mega cost of disposal discounted for over
100.000 years: • M/(1+0,0001)^100.000 = close to 0 That is, in economic calculation, present value of the
future cost is close to 0. Cost/benefit calculation does not care about generations far ahead.
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