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HUMBOLDT-UNIVERSITÄT ZU BERLININSTITUT FÜR INFORMATIK
TECHNICAL ENTREPRENEURSHIP
Vorlesung 2
BUSINESS PLAN
Wintersemester 1999
Leitung: Prof. Dr. Miroslaw MalekBetreuer: Peter K. Ibach
www.informatik.hu-berlin.de/~rok/entrepreneurship
TECHNISCHE UNIVERSITÄT BERLININSTITUT FÜR INFORMATIK
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OPPORTUNITY
• Types of startup firms:– 1) mom-and-pop business (marginal firm, life-style firm)– 2) high potential firm– 3) foundation firm
• Types 2) and 3) have at least $500,000 in sales and grow at a rate of minimum 10% per year.
• 2) and 3) have much bigger success potential than mom-and-pop businesses.
• 7 % of 7 million US companies grew over 20 % per year• Over 1 % of 7 million (80,000) grew over 50 % per year• Venture capital founded firms have a 60 % plus success rate
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THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
$1 billion
$500 million
$250 million
$100 million
Mar
ket s
ize
Window ofopportunity
5 10 20
Market
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THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN IDEAS AND OPPORTUNITIES
• 1 - 3 % of ideas are considered opportunities by VC's.• A good opportunity must be
– attractive– durable – timely
• Lemons (loosers) ripen in about 2 1/2 years.• Pearls (winners) take seven to eight years.
OPPORTUNITIES
SKY IS THE LIMIT
IDEAS
GETTING REAL
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SALES VOLUME OF U.S. COMPANIES
• 20% of businesses have sales over $ 1M
• 10 % of businesses have sales over $ 2M
• 1.25 % of businesses have sales over $ 10M
• 0.67 % of businesses have sales over $ 25 M
• (U. S. government data for 1980) In 1990 these figures have doubled
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ONE-YEAR SURVIVAL RATES BY FIRM SIZE
Firm size
(employees)
Survival percentage
0-9 77.8
10-19 85.5
20-99 95.3
100-249 95.2
250 and more 100.0
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FOUR-YEAR SURVIVAL RATES BY FIRM SIZE
Firm size
(employees)
D&B study
(1969-76)
California
study
(1976-80)
0-19 37.4 % 49.9 %
20-49 53.6 % 66.9 %
50-99 55.7 % 66.9 %
100-499 67.7 % 70.0 %
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SIX MOST IMPORTANT FACTORS (FROM VC'S PERSPECTIVE) FOR SUCCESSFUL COMPANY
• 1. the best entrepreneur and the quality of the team (people)
• 2. the best entrepreneur and the quality of the team (people)
• 3. the best entrepreneur and the quality of the team (people)
• 4. the best entrepreneur and the quality of the team (people)
• 5. Market potential and marketing
• 6. Idea
• The management team must have quality, depth and maturity.
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MARKET STRUCTURE
• Market structure is characterized by:– The number of sellers– The size distribution of sellers– The differentiation of products– The conditions of entry and exit– The number of buyers– The cost conditions– The sensitivity of demand to changes in price
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ENTRY STRATEGIES FOR ENTERING BUSINESS
• Developing a new product or service (innovation)
• Developing a similar product or service (imitation)• Buying a franchise• Exploiting an existing product or service• Sponsoring a startup enterprise• Acquiring a going company
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WAYS TO GENERATE IDEAS: WHAT IF ...?
1. WHAT IF it were longer? or smaller? inside out, different material, color, thinner, lighter, shorter, etc.
2. TURN PROBLEMS INTO PROFITS (eco industry, new civilization headaches)
3. VISUALIZE (mental pictures)
4. IDENTIIFY NEEDS
5. FORCED CONNECTIONS (e. g., clock radio and wrist watch)
6. KEEP A RECORD OF YOUR IDEAS ("creativity file")
7. CULTIVATE YOUR IDEAS
8. BE RECEPTIVE TO IDEAS
9. STOP BEING PRACTICAL
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WAYS TO GENERATE IDEAS: WHAT IF ...?
10. TRY SOMETHING NEW
11. BE PROGRESSIVE, NOT REGRESSIVE
12. BRAINSTORMING
13. IMPROVE EXISTING IDEAS
14. BRAINWRITING
15. SERENDIPITY TECHNIQUE ("BY CHANCE")
16. CREATIVE UNHAPPINESS
17. MIND MAPPING
18. SPEAK UP AND LISTEN
19. GAME STRATEGY METHOD (CHESS, JIGSAW, etc.)
20. JOIN BUSINESS OR ENTREPRENEURS ORGANIZATIONS
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MIND MAPPING
CHOOSING A BUSINESS
5-POINT SCALE ASSESSMENT
INSURANCE
SELF-
ASSESSMENT
STRATEGIC
PLANNING
PERMITS PATENTS/
TRADE
MARKS
BUSINESS
LOCATION MARKETING
LEGAL
ISSUES BUSINESS
IDEA BUSINESS
PLAN
TAXATION
LICENCES GENERATING
IDEAS
PERSONNEL FINANCING
PPC TECHNIQUE SWOT ANALYSIS
POSITIVES
POSSIBILITIES
CONCERNS
STRENGTHS
WEAKNESSES
OPPORTUNITIES
THREATS
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WRITING A SUCCESSFUL BUSINESS PLANDEFINING A BUSINESS PLAN
• A good definition: A business plan is a document that convincingly demonstrates the ability of your business to sell enough of its product or service to make a satisfactory profit and be attractive to potential backers.
• A better definition: A business plan is a selling document that conveys the excitement and promise of your business to any potential backers or stakeholders.
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EIGHT REASONS FOR WRITING A BUSINESS PLAN
1. To sell yourself on the business - "sanity check".
2. To obtain bank financing.
3. To obtain investment funds.
4. To arrange strategic alliances.
5. To obtain large contracts.
6. To attract key employees.
7. To complete mergers and acquistions.
8. To motivate and focus your management team.
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TYPES OF PLANS
• The Summary Business Plan - up to ten pages
• The Executive Summary - up to two pages
• The Full Business Plan - 10 - 50 pages
• The Operational Business Plan - 40 - 200 pages
GETTING STARTED TO WRITE
BRAINSTORMING
• Step 1 Posing the Right Questions or Subjects
• Step 2 Providing Bite-Size Answers
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WHAT SHOULD THE BUSINESS PLAN COVER
1. COVER PAGE
2. TABLE OF CONTENTS
3. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
4. THE COMPANY
5. THE MARKET
6. THE PRODUCT/SERVICE
7. SALES AND PROMOTION
8. FINANCES (CASH FLOW, INCOME/LOSS, BALANCE SHEET)
9. APPENDICES (e. g., EXECUTIVES PROFILES)
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ALTERNATIVE CONTENTS
1. COVER PAGE
2. SUMMARY
3. TABLE OF CONTENS
4. INTRODUCTION
5. DESCRIPTION OF VENTURE
6. MARKETING STRATEGY
7. FINANCIAL STRATEGY
8. FINANCIAL SCENARIOS
9. OPERATING STRATEGY
• APPENDICES
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BUSINESS PLAN TARGETING SUMMARYStakeholder Issues to
emphasizeIssues to
deemphasizeLength
Banker Cash flow, assets,
solid growth
Fast growth, hot
market
10-20 pp.
Investor Fast growth, potential
large market,
management team
Assets 20-40 pp.
Strategic partner Synergy, proprietary
products
Sales force, assets 20-40 pp.
Large customer Stability, service Fast growth,hot
market
20-40 pp.
Key employees Security, opportunity Technology 20-40 pp.
Merger &
acquisition
specialist
Past accomplishments Future outlook 20-40 pp
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CRITERIA FOR EVALUATING VENTURE OPPORTUNITIES (1)
Attractiveness
Criterion Higher Potential Lower Potential
Market Issues
Need Identified Unfocused
Customers Reachable; receptive Unreachable or loyal to others
Payback to user Less than one year Three years plus
Value added or created High Low
Product life Durable; beyond time to recover investment plus profit
Perishable; less than time to recover investment
Market structure Imperfect competition or emerging industry
Perfect competition or highly concentrated or mature industry or declining industry
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Attractiveness
Criterion Higher Potential Lower Potential
Market Issues (continued)
Market size $100 million sales Unknown or less than $10 million sales or multibillion
Market growth rate Growing at 30% to 50% or more
Contracting or less than 10%
Gross margins 40% to 50% or more; durable
Less than 20%; fragile
Market share attainable (year 5)
20% or more; leader Less than 5%
Cost structure Low cost provider Declining cost
CRITERIA FOR EVALUATING VENTURE OPPORTUNITIES (2)
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Attractiveness
Criterion Higher Potential Lower Potential
Economic/harvest issues
Profits after tax 10% to 15% or more; durable
Less than 20%; fragile
Time to:
Break even Under 2 years More than 3 years
Positive cash flow Under 2 years More than 3 years
ROI potential 25% or more/year; high value
15%-20% or less/ year; low value
Value High strategic value Low strategic value
Capital requirements Low to moderate; fundable Very high; unfundable
Exit mechanism Present or envisioned harvest options
Undefinded; illiquid investment
CRITERIA FOR EVALUATING VENTURE OPPORTUNITIES (3)
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Attractiveness
Criterion Higher Potential Lower Potential
Competitive advantages issues
Fixed and variable costs:
Production Lowest Highest
Marketing Lowest Highest
Distribution Lowest Highest
Degree of control:
Prices Moderate to strong Weak
Costs Moderate to strong Weak
Channels of supply/resources
Moderate to strong Weak
Channels of distribution Moderate to strong Weak
CRITERIA FOR EVALUATING VENTURE OPPORTUNITIES (4)
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Attractiveness
Criterion Higher Potential Lower Potential
Competitive advantages issues (continued)
Barrier to entry:
Proprietary protection/ regulation advantage
Have or can gain None
Response/lead time advantage in technology, product, market innovation, people, location, resources or capacity
Resilient and responsive; have or can gain
None
Legal contractual advantage
Proprietary or exclusive None
Contacts and networks Well developed; high-quality; accessible
Crude; limited inaccessible
CRITERIA FOR EVALUATING VENTURE OPPORTUNITIES (5)
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Attractiveness
Criterion Higher Potential Lower Potential
Management team issues
Team Existing, strong proven performance
Weak or solo entrepreneur
Competitor`s mind set and strategies
Competitive; few; not self-destructive
Dumb
Fatal flaw issue
Fatal flaws None One or more
CRITERIA FOR EVALUATING VENTURE OPPORTUNITIES (6)
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BUSINESS PLAN A MORE DETAILEDTABLE OF CONTENTS
Cover Page
Executive Summary 1
1. Introduction-Industry, the company and its products 2– The industry– The company– The products or services
2. Market research and analysis 3– A. Customers– B. Market Size and Trends– C. Competition– D. Estimated Market share and sales– E. Ongoing Market evaluation
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BUSINESS PLAN A MORE DETAILEDTABLE OF CONTENTS (continued)
3. Marketing plan 6– A. Overall marketing strategy
– B. Pricing
– C. Sales tactics
– D. Service and warranty policies
– E. Advertising and promotion
4. Design and development plans 8– A. Development status and tasks
– B. Difficulties and Risks
– C. Product improvement and New products
– D. Costs
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BUSINESS PLAN A MORE DETAILEDTABLE OF CONTENTS (continued)
5. Manufacturing and operations plan 9– A. Geographic Location
– B. Facilities and improvements
– C. Strategy and plans
– D. Labor Force
6. Management team 11– A. Organization
– B. Key management Personnel
– C. Management compensation and ownership
– d. Board of directors
– E. Management assistance and training needs
– F. Supporting professoinal services
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BUSINESS PLAN A MORE DETAILEDTABLE OF CONTENTS (continued)
7. Overall schedule 13
8. Critical risks and problems 15
9. Community benefits 16– A. Economic benefits
– B. Human development
– C. Community development
10. The financial plan 17– A. Profit and loss forecast
– B. Pro forma cash flows analysis
– C. Pro forma balance sheets
– D. Breakeven chart
– E. Cost control
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BUSINESS PLAN A MORE DETAILEDTABLE OF CONTENTS (continued)
PRO FORMA INCOME STATEMENTS
PRO FORMA CASH FLOWS STATEMENTS
PRO FORMA BALANCE SHEETS
BREAKEVEN CHART
11. PROPOSED COMPANY OFFERING 24– A. Desired financing
– B. Securities offering
– C. Capitalization
– D. Use of funds
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EXHIBIT 1
PRO FORMA INCOME STATEMENTS (1)
1st Year - Months 2nd Year - Quarters 3rd Year - Quarters1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Sales
Less: Discounts
Less: Bad Debt Provision
Less: Materials Used
Direct Labor
Manufacturing Overhead (2)
Other Manufacturing Expense (Leased Equip.)
Total Cost of Goods Sold
Gross Profit (or Loss)
Less: Sales Expense
Engineering ExpenseGeneral and Administrative
Expense (3)
Operating Profit (or Loss)
Less:Other Expense (e.g., interest, depreciation)
Profit Before Taxes (or Loss)
Income Tax Provision
Profit (Loss) After Taxes(1) See also the Financial Statement Guidelines you received at the workshop, to decide which is more appropriate for your venture.(2) Includes rent, utilities, fringe benefits, telephone.(3) Includes office supplies, accounting and legal services, management, etc.
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EXHIBIT 2PRO FORMA CASH FLOWS
1st Year - Months 2nd Year - Quarters 3rd Year - Quarters1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Cash Balance: Opening
Add: Cash Receipts
Collection of Accounts
Misc. Receipts
Bank Loan Proceeds
Sale of Stock
Total Receipts
Less: Disbursements
Trade Payables
Direct Labor
Manufacturing Overhead
Leased Equipment
Sales Expense
Warranty ExpenseGeneral and Administrative Expense
Fixed Asset Additions
Income Tax
Loan Interest @___%
Loan Repayments
Other Payments
Total Disbursements
Cash Increase (or Decrease)
Cash Balance: Closing
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EXHIBIT 3PRO FORMA BALANCE SHEET
1st Year - Quarters 2nd Year 3rd Year1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
ASSETS
Current
Marketable Securities
Accounts Receivable
Inventories
Raw Materials and Supplies
Work in Process
Finished Goods
Total Inventory
Prepaid Items
Total Current Assets
Plant and Equipment
Less: Accumulated
Depreciation
Net Plant and Equipment
Deferred Charges
Other Assets (Identify)
TOTAL ASSETS
LIABILITIES AND STOCKHOLDER'S EQUITY
Notes Payable to Banks
Accounts Payable
Accruals
Federal and State Taxes
Other
TOTAL CURRENT LIABILITIES
Long Term Notes
Other Liabilities
Common Stock
Capital Surplus
Retained Earnings
TOTAL LIABILITIES AND STOCKHOLDER'S EQUITY
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