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GovernmentinitiativesandSocio‐politicaldimensionsThecountriesdiscussedinthisstudyareatdifferentphasesofsolarenergydevelopment.Germanyleadsthenationsininstallationsofsolarpanels(PV)withroughlyhalftheworld’sinstallationsandisthethirdlargestproducerofsolarcellsandmodules,afterJapanandChina.GovernmentandpeopleareenthusiasticinusingsolarenergyandR&Disfuellingnewtechnologiesandnewcompanies.GovernmentandcitizensofUSAaretryingandtestingdifferenttechnologiestosuitthevastrequirementofenergy.USAisthebiggestconsumerofenergyintheworld.Incentivesandaggressiveprogramsinsomestates(especiallysouthernstateslikeNevada,Arizona,andCalifornia)arecreatingpossibilitiesforvarioustechnologiestogettested(recentlyNevadaOneforCSPdemonstration).VenturecapitalofaroundUSD3.4billionwasinvestedin2007aloneinsolarstartups.Governmentisunderpressurebyinterestgroupslikethesolarindustry,greengroupsandgreenpoliticianstogiveafullheartedsupport.Oilindustryhascreatedtwoprongedstrategyoflobbyingformoreexplorationopportunitiesinrestrictedareas(Alaska),andontheotherhandcreatingsolardivisionswithinthecompaniestoprojectagreenimageandtotakeadvantageofthegrowingsolarindustry.IndiaalongwithChinaisthefastestgrowingconsumerofenergyintheworld.Witharound8%GDPgrowthforlastdecadeandburgeoningmiddleclass,itissettobecomeoneofthelargestmarketforenergy,thegapbetweensupplyanddemandishuge,andtheIndianGovernmenthavingrealizedthathasrecentlypushedforsolarenergyprograms.TheIndianmarketisuntapped,itssolarindustryisnascent,andwithhighinsolationandanaverage250daysofsunlightitcanbecomethemostattractivetargetforsolarproductsincomingdecades.Germany:FactorsdrivingthegrowthofGermanSolarIndustry:

Energycrisis:Thefossilfuel(Oil)energycrisesof1973‐74and1979‐80withsevereeconomicimpactsledtotheemergenceofrenewableenergysourcesaspotentialriskreducers.

Internationalinitiatives: KyotoprotocolandcommitmentofGermanytoreduce

greenhousegasesby21%from1990emissionslevelswithin2008‐2012.

PromotionofRenewableenergytechnology:Startofgovernmentsupportin1974forR&DforwindturbinedevelopmentwithinitiativelikeGROWIAN(windplantproject).Thisbecameareferencepointforsupportforrenewableenergyprogramincludingsolarenergyprograms.

Feedintariffprograms:FederalElectricityFeedLaw(StrEG)adoptedin1991became

themostimportantinstrumentforthepromotionofrenewableenergyinGermany

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duringthe1990s.ThesuccessortoStrEG,EEGprogram,aimstofacilitateadoublingofrenewableenergy’s1997shareinthepowergenerationfuelmixby2010—toaminimumof12.5%.(see Appendix Government A).[ Feed-in tariff is an indirect subsidy to the producers of solar energy by spreading the cost of production over all the consumers ]

Politicaldevelopment:TheelectionofGermany’sRed‐Greencoalitiongovernmentin

1998broughtwithitadditionalpoliciesandlegislationpromotingthegrowthofrenewableenergy.Forexample,the1999EcologicalTaxReform(ETR)initiallyincreasedthetaxesonmotorfuels,fueloils,andnaturalgas,andalsoleviedanelectricitytaxacrossallsectors

Policies: Germanyhasreliedonacombinationoffiveprimarypolicyinstrumentsforthepromotionofrenewableenergy:

• DirectinvestmentinR&D;• Directsubsidies;• Government‐sponsoredloans;• Taxallowances;• Subsidiesforoperationalcosts/feed‐intariffs.

EEG:EEGwasadoptedinApril2000.TheEEGaimstofacilitateadoublingofrenewableenergy’s1997shareinthepowergenerationfuelmixby2010—toaminimumof12.5%.UnlikethatoftheStrEG,theEEG’sremunerationsystemisnotbasedonaverageutilityrevenueperkWhsold,butratheronafixed,regressivefeed‐intariffforrenewablesources.Low‐costrenewableenergyproducersarecompensatedatlowerratesthanhigher‐costproducers,providingstrongincentivesforthedevelopmentandoperationofrenewableenergyinstallationsonlower‐qualitysites.Also,undertheEEG,gridoperatorsareobligatedtopurchasepowerfromlocalproducers;anation‐wideequalizationschemehasbeenimplementedtoreducethecostdifferentialspaidbygridoperatorsindifferentpartsofthecountryforthepurchaseofrenewably‐generatedelectricity.Recentamendmentsfor2009andonwardshasbeenpassedas“slidingscalefordigression”(see Appendix Government B for major European countries).

Consumerpreferences

Increasingefficiency,hencelowercostperunit,ofdifferenttechnologiesisamajorattractionforswitchingtosolarenergy.Inadditiongridparityispredictedtobereachedbetween2012to2015[seefeed‐tariffsappendix]

Government’sincentivesandsubsidiesarepushfactorsfordemand;theydonotpullmoreconsumersasisgenerallythoughtof.So,consumer’sawarenessbecomescriticalforgrowthoftheindustry.

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Thehighlevelofpublicawarenessovergreenhouseeffectandglobalwarmingisimpactingthetrendofusageandsourceofenergy.Thiswillbeamajordriverofgrowthinrenewableenergysector.

USA:

FactorsdrivingthegrowthoftheAmericanSolarIndustry:

SoaringOilcosts:Theprohibitivecostofoil(reaching$4/gallon)inrecentyearsandtheimportbillofUSAarethepushfactorsfortheUSgovernmenttolookatalternativesourcesofenergy,seriously.Thoughwindandsolarprogramsandresearchstartedwaybackin1960’s,itwasmainlyconfinedtospaceapplicationanddemonstrationtechnologies.

Costlyalternativefuels:Bio‐fuelhasbeenanoptionbuttheconcernsaboutethanolasfuel(inparticular,whichwasfirstusedinBrazil)beingtoocostlyintermsofgrowingcost,costofland,lostnutritioninsoil(duetoextensivecornfarming)andsocio‐economiccostoflostopportunitiesindevelopingcountries(withlesslandarea),feedingUSA’srequirementhasbecomehighlycontroversialandhasforcedthegovernmenttolookatwindandsolarenergyasalternatives.

Oilfrombitumen,tar(Venezuela),Shale(propositionedbysomelikeIHS’sDanielYergin)isnotrecoverablepractically.Mr.Yerginonlypointstocapacityandnotrealrecoverableoil.Additionally,environmentalistsarelobbyingagainstexplorationofoilinunexplored/virginterritories(Alaska,Antarctica)andalsofromsourcessuchassandandtar.Oilfromcoalandcleancoaltechnologiesareinlaboratoryexperiments,unprovenforproduction.

Solarenergyincentivesandprograms: USAfederalgovernmentsandstatesgovernments(speciallysixsouthernstates)haveincentives,taxbreaks,loans,grantsandsubsidiesforsolarenergyinstallationsforcommercialandresidentialpurposes(seeappendix).AbillhasbeenintroducedinUScongressfor10millionsolarroofsby2018.

Politicalpressure:AlGoreandmanyotherpoliticianshavestartedacampaignforrenewableenergy.Themoveissupportedbytherenewableenergyindustryandenvironmentallyconsciouspublic(realizingthehighsocialandeconomiccostonthenation,nottomentiontheirownpersonalwoes).Thecreditcrunchandhousingcriseshavefurtheredthecloutofthesepoliticians.

(see Appendix Government C for Programs and incentives )

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Consumerpreferences

RateofreturnoninvestmentandnofuelrequirementthedrivingcostsforgeneralpopulationinUSA(evenMassachusettswhereaveragesunshineislessthan5hoursonayearlybasis).EspeciallyPVmodulewith25yearsofguaranteedserviceisamajorpull.

Socialconsciousnessand“green”image[beingseenas“forwardthinking”symbol]aremajorattractionsforconsumersbutthesehavealongwaytogo.

Tightgovernmentregulationsandfinesonindustriesareforcingindustriestoreducetheircarbonemissionburdenonenvironmentasaprecautionarymeasure.Inthelongrun,theindustriesaretryingtoreducetheirfuelbillandbuildagreenimageintheeyesoftheiremployeesandconsumers.ItisnotmerelyCSR.

India

IndiaBeckons:FactorsdrivinggrowthforsolarenergyinIndia

GovernmentPolicy:RecentannouncementsbytheprimeministerofIndiaforNAPCC(nationalactionplanforclimatechange)includeaNationalSolarmission.(See Appendix

government D for details).Thishasencouragedtheindustriestoinvestinsolarenergy.

Insolation:Highinsolation(sunlight’sintensity)onmajorityofIndia’sland,its400millionmiddleclassandanother500millionpeopleinruralareasmakeIndiaasanattractivesolarinvestmentdestination. Withanaverageof250daysofsunlightandanintensityof4to7kWh/m2itisoneofideallocationssuitedforsolarenergygrowth.

HighOilimportbill:Indiaisdependentonothercountriesforoil.ItslargepopulationandincreasingGDPpercapitahavefurthercontributedtoitshighconsumptionofoil.Thisyearitcost6%GDPofIndia,toimporttherequiredoil(around73Billion$estimatedfor2007‐08Fiscalyear1).

Cheaphumanresourcesandtechnicaltalent:TalentandcheaplabormakeIndiaaveryattractivedestinationforsolarenergy.

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FollowingrecentNAPCCannouncements,bigindustrialhouseslikeTATAPower,RelianceIndustries,andADAG(AnilDhirubhaiAm200abniGroup)haveannouncedinvestmentsworthUSD6billion.

ConsumerPreferences

Ruralcitizenswithlittleornoelectricityandfarmerscouldbethelargestsegmenttobetappedforoff‐gridapplications.Necessitieslikepoweringthewaterpump,lightbulbs,televisionscangeneratehugedemand

Solarwaterheatinghasthepotentialtopullinurbanpopulace’sdemand,whichcanbecomeastartingpointforusageofsolartechnologiesforhouseelectricityconsumption

Industriesthoughawaredon’twanttoinvestingreentechnologiesasthereisnosocialpressurenow.Buttheawarenessofpublicandmediaisincreasing,whichcanbeapushfactorforindustriestoadoptsolartechnology.Brandimageisanotherfactorwhichwillforcetheindustriestorethinktheirstrategy

Governmentitselfisverybigconsumerandbyadoptingthetechnologyitself,itcanpullthegeneralconsumersandpushtheindustries(indirectlybycreatingpressure)inadoptingthesolartechnology.

Conclusion

Solarenergyindustryisanascentindustrywithgreatpotentialtogrow.Thegrowthcanbepropelledbyinitiativesandprogramsbygovernments,whichcanprovidebothpullandpushfactorsfordemand.Feed‐intariffs,greenimageandsubsidiescandrivethegrowthininitialstagesbutlongtermsustainablegrowthispossibleonlywithmainstreamacceptanceofthetechnology.Acceptancewillcomefromsustainedgovernmenteffort(suchastaxbreaks/holidays),economicalcostforendusers,easeofuseandawarenessofecologicalcostamongstcitizensandindustries.Quotaallotmentandaggressivepushbythegovernmentcanworkfortheshortterm(asinSpain)butlongtermgrowthispossibleonlybyadoptionbycitizens(Germany).

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IssuesandChallengesforSolarenergyIndustryandPlayers1.Cost:Gridparityorcostofsolarenergyequivalenttocostofcurrentenergyresourcesisamajorchallenge.Inaugust2008,solarelectricitycostwasaround21.3centsKwh1,whichis5timesthenormalpriceofelectricitygeneratedbyfossilfuels.EvenpowergeneratedthroughCSP(proven)andCPV(unproveninthefield)technologiesisabove8cents/Kwh.ThismakesitunacceptableformostofthecitizensofdevelopingcountrieslikeIndiaandChina,wheremostofthedemandinfuturewouldbegenerated(IndiaandChinacombinedenergyneedswouldgrowby40%by2030,IEAEnergyOutlook2007).Germancitizensandindustrywouldfeelthepinchasthesubsidiesandfeed‐intariffarereducedandcostwillincrease.USAwillremainthe2ndlargestconsumerofenergyin2030.Soitbecomesimperativeforcostofsolarenergytobeequivalenttocostofenergygeneratedbyfossilfuels.Economiesofscale(increasedusage)andadvancementintechnologycanachievethatobjective.Balanceofsystemcomponents(BOS‐componentswhicharenotPVmodulesorTurbine/transmissionsysteminCSP/CPV)costbetween20‐70%dependingontechnologyandcountry.Efficiencyandeconomicalintegrationofcomponentslikeinverters,batteriesbecomecrucial.1.1EconomiesofScale:Thisisacomplexissueasit’sinter‐twinedwithcostofthesystemorelectricitygenerated.Increasingofthescalecanreducethecostandreducingofthecostwillincreasetheusage.Itisaviciouscircle.1.2DependencyonGovernmentincentives:Asitisanewindustryanditstartedgrowinginresponsetoincreasingcostofoil,moregreenhousegasemissionsandclimatechange,thegovernmentsupportissustainingtheindustrynow.Ifthecostofsolarenergydoesnotdecreaseorcostoftheoilgoesdown,theincentiveforgovernmentandpublicsupportmaygodown,leadingtolimitingthegrowthoftheindustry2.SunshineandInsolation:AccordingtoIEAareabetween30˚NorthandSouthofequator,isthebestforgenerationofsolarenergy.Insolationoramountandintensityofsunlightvaryacrosstheglobeandduringseasons,Localconditionsalsoareamajorinfluencefactor.Soeachcountryandareaneedstoadoptdifferenttechnologiesforgenerationoftechnology.Areasbeyond60˚N&Shavetodependonsummertimeforgenerationofelectricity.3.Installation:Installationandintegrationwithbuildings,structuresremainamajorchallenge.Technologycannotbefullycombinedwithoutsortingoutissueslikeaesthetics,area,degradationofcells/systemsovertime,trainedpersonnel.4.Integrationwithpowergrid:IntegrationwithpowergridisoneofthechallengesofPVorupcomingtechnologiesinrooftops/residentialsystems.Thisisbecausewhenpoweriswithdrawnorfedintothegridsystemfrequencyofthegridfluctuates,leadingtodestabilizationofthesystem.5.UnprovenTechnology:Manytechnologiesclaimedassuccessfulinlabhasnotyetbeenproveninthefield.Theresultsinthefiledcanbedifferentornotaspositiveasinlab.Integrationwithothertechnologiesandgridsupplyalsocanbechallengestotheindustry.1 www.solarbuzz.com, august 2008

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6.Weaksupplychain:Weaksupplychain(especiallyinCSP)duetocyclicalactivitydevelopmenthasledtodwindlingofequipmentvendors.Tomeettheprojecteddemand,manufacturingcapacityhastobeexpanded(forCSP).7.Lackofadequatelandclosetoloadcenters:Lackoflandforinstallationofsolarfarmsprojects(especiallyincountrieslikeIndia,wherelandiscostlyandunavailable)closetoconsumption/populationcentersaddtothecostofelectricity.Thisisamajorconstraintindevelopmentofsolarfarms,whichhasthepotentialtoreachgridparity.8.LackofspendingpowerandFinancingoptionsindevelopingcountriesisanimpedimenttothegrowthofthesolarindustryincountrieslikeIndiaandchina.

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StrategyChallengesforSolarEnergyPlayers“Globalenergysystemisonincreasinglyanincreasinglyunsustainablepath.Challengeforallcountriesistoachievetransitiontoamoresecure,lowcarbonenergysystem.”–WorldEnergyOutlook2007,IEA.Differentscenariospredictworld’sinstalledsolarenergygrowthto35Gwto40Gigawattby2015.In2007,worldinstalled3.5Gigawattofsolarenergy,47%ofinstallationwasinGermany,Spain23%,USA10%andrestoftheworld20%.India’stotalgrowthwasameager20Mwoutoftotalgenerationofcloseto100,000Mw.SupplyofPVsystemsintheworldespeciallypolysiliconPVwillbesignificantlymorethantheexpecteddemandforthreeorfouryearsbecauseofthreefactors.HugecapacityadditioninmanufactureofPVqualitysilicon(inresponsetoearliershortage)in2009,dropingrowthrateofSpain’sdemandduetoendofgovernment’senforcedPVenergyprogram(inSeptember2008)anduncertaintyinUSgovernment’ssolarenergypolicies.Theaboveinformationisnotacauseofconcernbutacauseforoptimismforsolarenergyindustryasmediumtermopportunitiesarehuge.Economic,socialandecologicalconsequencesofpastenergyusagepatternwouldforcethecountriesandtheirpopulacetochangetheirhabitsthusevenimpactingbigenergyplayers(companiesandconsortiumslikeOECD).Sowhatcouldbethestrategychallengesforpresentandfuturesolarenergyplayersinthisageofrapidchangeanduncertainties?CountriesGermany:Thegrowthrateofnearly25%isnotsustainableafter3‐5yearsduetotwofactors.AsGermanyhasbeenaleaderthehugegrowthinsolarinstallationmeansthatthedemandwillnotbeatthesamelevelaspreviously.25‐30%ofdemandby2015wouldbegeneratedbyGermany.USA:TheuncertaintiesofgovernmentpoliciesinUSAhavebeenadampenerinthegrowthofdifferentsolartechnologiesandgrowthofdemand.Yet,somepoliticalinitiativeslikeMillionsolarroofs“programcreateslongtermoptimism.TheincreasedinsecurityofUSAduetochanginggeopoliticsofOilwouldleadittosupportenergyselfreliantpolicies.Differentintensitiesofsunlightgeneratepossibilitiesofdeploymentofdifferenttechnologies,thusincreasingpowergeneratingpotential.RisingconcernoverCO2emissionsisanotherpushfactorfordevelopmentofdemandforcleanenergy.10‐15%shareofpotentialdemandwouldcomefromUSAby2015.India:Thecountry’srecentprogramof1Gigwatt/yearinstallationshowsthatthesecondlargestpopulatedcountryisacceptingthefactthatitsownresourcesofcoalandhydropowerisinsufficientforitspowerneeds,wherethereisademandsupplygapof14%atpeakloads.Secondly,amountofinsolationand“sun‐days”(average270days)arebignaturaldriversforgrowthoftechnologieslikeCPV,CSPandPV.Risingnumberoflitigationsoverhydropowerprojects,lowqualityofcoalhigh,airpollution,deforestationandincreasingoildependencyofthecountryarepushfactorsforgenerationofcleanenergy.Offgridusageinwaterpumpsforagriculture,ruralelectrification;demandforwaterheatinginurbanareasarepullfactorsin

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India.Indiahasthepotentialtoconsumearound7‐10%ofdemandifitstartsfulfillingitstargetofinstalling1Gigawattofsolarenergy,by2015.45%ofdemandwouldcomefromtherestoftheworld;sowhichwouldbetheotherpotentialconsumersofsolarenergy?Chinawithitshugeenergydemand,Francewithitsshifttowardsrenewableandmovingawayfromthelastcoal‐basedplants,GreeceandItaly(wsjaugust2008)2duetoabundantsunlight,Australiawithoppositeseasonsasnorthernhemisphereandgoodamountofsunlight(speciallyinsouthandwest),Japanwithcommitmenttogreenhousegaseswouldbeothermajorconsumers.StrategyScenariosofPlayersDuetorapidlyrisingdemand,differentusages,anduncertaintiesarisingduetogovernmentsupportandhighcost,solarenergyplayershavetoadoptstrategiessupportingtheirlongtermandshorttermgoals.Gridparitywillremainthemostimportantconcernforanytechnology.Nowwelookatstrategyscenariosofthreebroadsegmentsofsolartechnology.MonoandPolysiliconphotovoltaicplayersSilicontechnologieswillremainthebiggestplayersuntil2015,thoughtheirsharewoulddeclineduetoadvancementsinothertechnologies(likeCSP)andcostreduction.

1) Geographicalexpansion‐‐‐‐CostofPVmoduleshavealsobeenhighduetoloweconomiesofscale.GeographicalexpansionintonewmarketslikeAustralia,India,andGreeceetcwouldallowlowcostandpriceandthusfurtherpenetration.

2) Alliancesacrossthevaluechain‐‐Alliancesofcompaniesacrossthevaluechain(from

siliconingotstowaferstosystemstoinstallationsandservices)wouldbuildastrongsupplychainandcreatestabilityintheindustry.

3) Consolidation‐‐‐Consolidationoftheindustrywith1)mergersandacquisitions2)

meltingawayofdifferenttechnologiesandcompaniesduetoobsolescenceandloweconomiesofscale,wouldbenefitthemonoandpolysiliconmanufacturers.

4) Integrationwithplayersinconventionalandrenewableenergysegments:Combinationof

solartechnologywithotherrenewableenergysegment(likewind)or/andconventionalenergycompanieslikecoalandhydropowerwouldresultinmoreacceptabilityandgrowth.

5) Creatingnewopportunitieswithdifferentindustries:Poweringindustriesliketelecom

andseawaterpurificationcouldcreateapplicationsinawiderdimensionleadingtospread,imageandgrowth.

6) Takingdifferentsolartechnologiesintheirfold:BigsiliconPVplayercouldthinkoftaking

differenttechnologiesintothefoldofthecompanytocatertodifferentgeographiesandusages.

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ThinFilmplayersBesidesgeographicexpansionandallianceswithconventionalandnonconventionalenergyplayersthinfilmcouldconsideranyorcombinationofstrategies:

1) Targetsegmentfocus:Targetinganarrowsegment(likecommercialbuildingsorlessintensesunlightareaoftheworld)couldgivethethinfilmplayerstwoadvantages;a)AvoiddirectcompetitionwithestablishedtechnologieslikesiliconPV,b)Establishingtheindustryinanewfield.

2) Creatingnewproducts:Thinfilmshaveflexibility,thispropertycanbeusedtocreate

newproductsegmentsuchaslowpowerdevices,militaryapplicationsandintegrationwithmodeoftransportationsuchasships,planesandautomobiles.

3) CompetingwithSiliconbasedplayers:Thethirdscenariocouldbedirectcompetition

withsiliconplayersinthebigdomainslikeresidentialandcommercialspace.Specially,commercialuserswouldliketohavemoreenergy(Kwh)ratherthanhighcostofinstallation($/watt).

Concentratedsolarpower(CSP)andConcentratedPhotovoltaic(CPV)Thesetechnologiesarecentralizedpowerproductionsorientedandcanbeintegratedeasilywithcurrentpowerproductionelementsofthesystemsuchasturbine(Rankinecycle,suchasStirlingdishesforCSP)andexistingpowergrid.

1) Powerpurchaseagreements:OneofreasonsofhighcostofCSPandCPVtechnologiesaretheirhugeprojectdevelopmentcostsandafewinstallations,leadingtohighcomponentscost.Whenthesetechnologieswouldbeimplementedonalargerscale,theyhavethepotentialtoproduceelectricityatgridparity.Longtermpowerpurchaseagreementswouldpropelthesetechnologiestobecosteffectiveandalsoattractmorefinancingoptions.

2) Highsolarinsolationareasasmarkets:AsCSPandCPVdependuponhighintensityof

sunlight,thecompaniesshouldconcentrateongeographieswhichhavehighinsolationandhavelargeareasforinstallation.Infutureitcanbebuiltonlandearlierusedbyfossilfuelpowerplants.

EmergingTechnologiesEmergingtechnologieslikeNanofilms(Nanosolar),OrganicPV(KonarkaTech),XCPV,MicroCSPhavethepotentialtocreatenewstandardsinthefield.

1) Applicationsandintegration:Themainstrategyofnewemergingplayerswouldbetoplayondifferentapplicationsotherthanelectricitygenerationonlargescale.OrganicPVornanofimscannotgeneratelargescaleelectricitylikesolarfarms.Soapplicationslikeelectricitywindows,façade,etcandintegrationwiththestructuresorsubstratesbecomecriticalfactors.

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2) MicroCSPandX‐CPV:LowCostandintegrationwiththeexistingpowergenerating

systemwouldbemajorfactorsintheiracceptance.Itmaytake4‐5yearstodevelopthesetechnologiestobecompatiblewiththeexistinginfrastructure.

UtilitiesUtilitieshavethepotentialtobepartnersforbigscalepower(solarfarms)generatingplayersandtechnology(likeCSP,PVandCPV).UtilitiesbythevirtueoftheirexistinginfrastructurecouldbeveryactivepartnerswithSiliconPVandThinfilmplayers,byenteringintoinstallationandintegrationandutilizingtherelationshipwiththeendusers.

Playersshouldalsofocusonloweringbarriersofentrythrough1)developmentandtrainingoffuturesolarenergyprofessionals2)developanddisseminatestandardcodesandbestpracticestofacilitateinstallationofsolartechnologies.Partneringwithindustriesandcitiestopromoteinstallationcouldbeapotentstrategy,whichwouldalsoincreasevisibilityandeconomiesofscaleofdifferenttechnologies.ConclusionStrategychallengesintherapidlyevolvingmarketanduncleargovernmentsupportmakessolarindustryveryuncertainforatleast4‐5yearsbutalsoposesagreatexpansionopportunity,speciallyifthecostisbroughtdowntoconventionalfuelsandmethodsofproduction.EmergingtechnologiessuchasorganicPV,X‐CPVandMicroCSPhavethepotentialtotransformthewholeenergygamewithlowcost,flexibledesignandeaseofuse.Installationandruggednessofthesystemswouldbealwayscriticalfactorsingrowthofthesolarenergyindustry.Publicawarenessandhighcarbonemissionsarepushingthegovernmentandindustriestolookatalternativesbutlowcostofoil(comparativelywithsolarenergy,despitetherecentrisetounprecedentedlevel)easyavailability,establishedindustriescenteredontheproductionoffossilbasedfuel(likepowerplants,refineries),highinvestmentsaddtoinertiaagainstnewsourcesofenergy.Next4‐5yearswouldbeverycrucialforsolarenergyindustryasitwoulddecidewhatpathitchoosetobeanestablishedsourceofenergyfortheworldalongwithwindenergy(notincompetitionwith).Rightnowthequestioniswideopenandwehavetowaitandwatchtheoneofthegreatestturnsofhistoryafterinformationrevolution.Theenergyrevolution!