South Dakota PUC
Basin Electric Power CooperativeGroton Unit 2
December 19, 2006
Basin Electric Power CooperativeMEMBER SYSTEMS
Basin Electric Power CooperativeMEMBER SYSTEMS
Power Supply FacilitiesPower Supply Facilities
2006 Summer Capacity
Coal – 81%Coal – 81%
Purchases – 8%Purchases – 8%
Renewable – 1%Renewable – 1%
Oil – 4%Oil – 4%
Gas – 6%Gas – 6%
2006 Generation Additions
Groton 1 Timeline
Jul 2006: COD
Nov 2003: Justification
May 2004: PUC NOIMay 2004: PUC NOI
Dec 2004: PUC App. Sub
Aug 2005: Construction
Load ForecastLoad Forecast
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2002 LFHistorical
MW
Groton 1 Timeline
Jul 2006: COD
Nov 2003: Justification
May 2004: PUC NOIMay 2004: PUC NOI
Dec 2004: PUC App. Sub
Aug 2005: Construction
2004 Load Forecast2004 Load Forecast
Load ForecastLoad Forecast
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2002 LF2004 LFHistorical
MW
Groton 2 ?Groton 2 ?
2007 Load ForecastSchedule
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec Jan
Update Form 7
Forecast CBMForecast Coal
Forecast Oil
Judgmental Forms
Collect Electric Rates
Procure Data
Forecast Res ConsForecast Res Usage
Forecast SC Cons
Forecast SC Usage
Distribution BooksReview Meetings
Prepare G&T Books
Prepare BEPC Book
Present to BEPC Board
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
200720062005
EconometricEconometric
External Data Sources
n 250 Equations and Modelsn 550 Explanatory Variables or Driversn Membership Inputn Member’s Review and Approvaln Basin Approvaln RUS Approval
n 250 Equations and Modelsn 550 Explanatory Variables or Driversn Membership Inputn Member’s Review and Approvaln Basin Approvaln RUS Approval
Load Forecasting System
2007 Load ForecastScheduleSchedule
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec Jan
Update Form 7
Forecast CBMForecast Coal
Forecast Oil
Judgmental Forms
Collect Electric Rates
Procure Data
Forecast Res ConsForecast Res Usage
Forecast SC Cons
Forecast SC Usage
Distribution BooksReview Meetings
Prepare G&T Books
Prepare BEPC Book
Present to BEPC Board
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
200720062005
TodayToday
Member Discussions
2007 Load Forecast Results
Ethanol
Oil Coal
Residential
CBM
Natural Gas
Historical Natural Gas Prices
$0$2$4$6$8
$10$12$14$16
Nov
-93
Nov
-94
Nov
-95
Nov
-96
Nov
-97
Nov
-98
Nov
-99
Nov
-00
Nov
-01
Nov
-02
Nov
-03
Nov
-04
Nov
-05
Nov
-06
Nov
-07
Nov
-08
Nov
-09
Nov
-10
$/MMBtu
12/24/200412/24/2004
3/10/20043/10/2004
HistoricalHistorical
Historical Natural Gas Prices
$0$2$4$6$8
$10$12$14$16
Nov
-93
Nov
-94
Nov
-95
Nov
-96
Nov
-97
Nov
-98
Nov
-99
Nov
-00
Nov
-01
Nov
-02
Nov
-03
Nov
-04
Nov
-05
Nov
-06
Nov
-07
Nov
-08
Nov
-09
Nov
-10
$/MMBtu
9/19/20059/19/2005
12/24/200412/24/2004
3/10/20043/10/2004
HistoricalHistorical
12/15/200612/15/2006
Historical Oil Prices
$0$10$20$30$40$50$60$70$80
Jan-
46
Jan-
50
Jan-
54
Jan-
58
Jan-
62
Jan-
66
Jan-
70
Jan-
74
Jan-
78
Jan-
82
Jan-
86
Jan-
90
Jan-
94
Jan-
98
Jan-
02
Jan-
06
$/Barrel
Major Growth Areas
Major Growth Major Growth AreasAreas
East River
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2004 LF2007 LF - Preliminary
MWEast River
Total Summer PeakEast River
Total Summer Peak
•Keystone Pipeline – 40 MW
•Ethanol – 68 MW
•Grain/Poultry/Sugar – 20 MW
•Sioux Falls Area – 216 MW
•Keystone Pipeline – 40 MW
•Ethanol – 68 MW
•Grain/Poultry/Sugar – 20 MW
•Sioux Falls Area – 216 MW
Rushmore
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2004 LF2007 LF - Preliminary
MWRushmore
Total Summer PeakRushmore
Total Summer Peak
L & O
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2004 LF2007 LF - Preliminary
MWL&O
Total Summer PeakL&O
Total Summer Peak
•Ethanol – 3 MW
•Federated – 35 MW
•Ethanol – 3 MW
•Federated – 35 MW
NIPCO
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2004 LF2007 LF - Preliminary
MWNIPCO
Total Summer PeakNIPCO
Total Summer Peak
•Ethanol – 60 MW
•Methane Digester – 10 MW
•Bio-diesel/CO2/Mfg – 4 MW
•Ethanol – 60 MW
•Methane Digester – 10 MW
•Bio-diesel/CO2/Mfg – 4 MW
Upper Missouri
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2004 LF2007 LF - Preliminary
MWUpper Missouri
Total Summer PeakUpper Missouri
Total Summer Peak•Oil Field Activity – 170 MW
•Bakken – 35 MW
•Cedar Hills – 135 MW
•Ethanol Plant – 12 MW
•Enbridge Pipeline – 6 MW
•Oil Field Activity – 170 MW•Bakken – 35 MW
•Cedar Hills – 135 MW
•Ethanol Plant – 12 MW
•Enbridge Pipeline – 6 MW
Central Power
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2004 LF2007 LF - Preliminary
MWCentral Power
Total Summer PeakCentral Power
Total Summer Peak•Keystone Pipeline – 10 MW
•Enbridge Pipeline – 4 MW
•Ethanol / Bio-diesel – 16 MW
•Keystone Pipeline – 10 MW
•Enbridge Pipeline – 4 MW
•Ethanol / Bio-diesel – 16 MW
PRECorp
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2004 LF2007 LF - Preliminary
MWPRECorp
Total Summer PeakPRECorp
Total Summer Peak
•CBM
•Coal
•CBM
•Coal
Total ForecastTotal Forecast
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,00019
7119
7319
7519
7719
7919
8119
8319
8519
8719
8919
9119
9319
9519
97
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2004 LF2007 LF - Preliminary
MW
800800
1,6501,650
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,00019
7119
7319
7519
7719
7919
8119
8319
8519
8719
8919
9119
9319
9519
9719
9920
0120
0320
0520
0720
0920
1120
1320
1520
1720
1920
21
2004 LF2007 LF - Preliminary2007 LF - Potential
MW
700700
Potential Loads• Ethanol / Bio-diesel – 150 MW
• Large Gas Compression – 150 MW
• Data Center – 130 MW
• Oil Field Activity – 80 MW
• Coal Drying – 70 MW
• Manufacturing – 50 MW
• Metals Mining – 30 MW
• Water – 20 MW
• Railroad Hub – 20 MW
Potential Loads• Ethanol / Bio-diesel – 150 MW
• Large Gas Compression – 150 MW
• Data Center – 130 MW
• Oil Field Activity – 80 MW
• Coal Drying – 70 MW
• Manufacturing – 50 MW
• Metals Mining – 30 MW
• Water – 20 MW
• Railroad Hub – 20 MW
800800
1,6501,650
Total ForecastTotal Forecast
Groton 1 Operation
Transmission Operations
Transmission Operations
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Load Serving
Resource Development
New Resources• Committed New Resources
– Groton 2 (95 MW)– Dry Fork Station (352 MW)– Waste Heat (28 MW)– LRS Turbine Upgrades (16 MW)
• Committed New Resources– Groton 2 (95 MW)– Dry Fork Station (352 MW)– Waste Heat (28 MW)– LRS Turbine Upgrades (16 MW)
• Planned New Resources– NextGen – 700 MW (Dec 2013)– MRY III – 100 MW (Jun 2016)– Wind (10% Goal)
• 2009 – 100 MW• 2014 – 50 MW
• Planned New Resources– NextGen – 700 MW (Dec 2013)– MRY III – 100 MW (Jun 2016)– Wind (10% Goal)
• 2009 – 100 MW• 2014 – 50 MW
BEPC Summer SurplusNew Resources
BEPC Summer SurplusNew Resources
-1,600-1,400-1,200-1,000
-800-600-400-200
0200
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
MWMW
PlannedPlannedCommittedCommitted
Color GGS 2
Groton 2Groton 2
BEPC Summer SurplusBEPC Summer Surplus
-1,600-1,400-1,200-1,000
-800-600-400-200
0200
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
MWMW
Groton 2 Timeline
Sept. 2006: NOI
March 2007: App. Sub.March 2007: App. Sub.
Sept. 2007: ConstructionSept. 2007: Construction
Sept. 2008: COD
June 2008: COD
Jan. 2007: App. Sub.Jan. 2007: App. Sub.
June 2007: ConstructionJune 2007: Construction
Major Concerns
• Low Hydro
• Loss of generator
• Transmission constraints
• Ability to move power into the region
• Low Hydro
• Loss of generator
• Transmission constraints
• Ability to move power into the region
Request
Basin Electric requests the SD PUC to waive the remainder of the 6-month
waiting period to enable Basin Electric to submit their application in January
2007 instead of March 2007.
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