South Dakota PUC

Basin Electric Power CooperativeGroton Unit 2

December 19, 2006

Basin Electric Power CooperativeMEMBER SYSTEMS

Basin Electric Power CooperativeMEMBER SYSTEMS

Power Supply FacilitiesPower Supply Facilities

2006 Summer Capacity

Coal – 81%Coal – 81%

Purchases – 8%Purchases – 8%

Renewable – 1%Renewable – 1%

Oil – 4%Oil – 4%

Gas – 6%Gas – 6%

2006 Generation Additions

Groton 1 Timeline

Jul 2006: COD

Nov 2003: Justification

May 2004: PUC NOIMay 2004: PUC NOI

Dec 2004: PUC App. Sub

Aug 2005: Construction

Load ForecastLoad Forecast

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2002 LFHistorical

MW

Groton 1 Timeline

Jul 2006: COD

Nov 2003: Justification

May 2004: PUC NOIMay 2004: PUC NOI

Dec 2004: PUC App. Sub

Aug 2005: Construction

2004 Load Forecast2004 Load Forecast

Load ForecastLoad Forecast

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2002 LF2004 LFHistorical

MW

Groton 2 ?Groton 2 ?

2007 Load ForecastSchedule

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec Jan

Update Form 7

Forecast CBMForecast Coal

Forecast Oil

Judgmental Forms

Collect Electric Rates

Procure Data

Forecast Res ConsForecast Res Usage

Forecast SC Cons

Forecast SC Usage

Distribution BooksReview Meetings

Prepare G&T Books

Prepare BEPC Book

Present to BEPC Board

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

200720062005

EconometricEconometric

External Data Sources

n 250 Equations and Modelsn 550 Explanatory Variables or Driversn Membership Inputn Member’s Review and Approvaln Basin Approvaln RUS Approval

n 250 Equations and Modelsn 550 Explanatory Variables or Driversn Membership Inputn Member’s Review and Approvaln Basin Approvaln RUS Approval

Load Forecasting System

2007 Load ForecastScheduleSchedule

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec Jan

Update Form 7

Forecast CBMForecast Coal

Forecast Oil

Judgmental Forms

Collect Electric Rates

Procure Data

Forecast Res ConsForecast Res Usage

Forecast SC Cons

Forecast SC Usage

Distribution BooksReview Meetings

Prepare G&T Books

Prepare BEPC Book

Present to BEPC Board

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

200720062005

TodayToday

Member Discussions

2007 Load Forecast Results

Ethanol

Oil Coal

Residential

CBM

Natural Gas

Historical Natural Gas Prices

$0$2$4$6$8

$10$12$14$16

Nov

-93

Nov

-94

Nov

-95

Nov

-96

Nov

-97

Nov

-98

Nov

-99

Nov

-00

Nov

-01

Nov

-02

Nov

-03

Nov

-04

Nov

-05

Nov

-06

Nov

-07

Nov

-08

Nov

-09

Nov

-10

$/MMBtu

12/24/200412/24/2004

3/10/20043/10/2004

HistoricalHistorical

Historical Natural Gas Prices

$0$2$4$6$8

$10$12$14$16

Nov

-93

Nov

-94

Nov

-95

Nov

-96

Nov

-97

Nov

-98

Nov

-99

Nov

-00

Nov

-01

Nov

-02

Nov

-03

Nov

-04

Nov

-05

Nov

-06

Nov

-07

Nov

-08

Nov

-09

Nov

-10

$/MMBtu

9/19/20059/19/2005

12/24/200412/24/2004

3/10/20043/10/2004

HistoricalHistorical

12/15/200612/15/2006

Historical Oil Prices

$0$10$20$30$40$50$60$70$80

Jan-

46

Jan-

50

Jan-

54

Jan-

58

Jan-

62

Jan-

66

Jan-

70

Jan-

74

Jan-

78

Jan-

82

Jan-

86

Jan-

90

Jan-

94

Jan-

98

Jan-

02

Jan-

06

$/Barrel

Major Growth Areas

Major Growth Major Growth AreasAreas

East River

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2004 LF2007 LF - Preliminary

MWEast River

Total Summer PeakEast River

Total Summer Peak

•Keystone Pipeline – 40 MW

•Ethanol – 68 MW

•Grain/Poultry/Sugar – 20 MW

•Sioux Falls Area – 216 MW

•Keystone Pipeline – 40 MW

•Ethanol – 68 MW

•Grain/Poultry/Sugar – 20 MW

•Sioux Falls Area – 216 MW

Rushmore

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2004 LF2007 LF - Preliminary

MWRushmore

Total Summer PeakRushmore

Total Summer Peak

L & O

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2004 LF2007 LF - Preliminary

MWL&O

Total Summer PeakL&O

Total Summer Peak

•Ethanol – 3 MW

•Federated – 35 MW

•Ethanol – 3 MW

•Federated – 35 MW

NIPCO

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2004 LF2007 LF - Preliminary

MWNIPCO

Total Summer PeakNIPCO

Total Summer Peak

•Ethanol – 60 MW

•Methane Digester – 10 MW

•Bio-diesel/CO2/Mfg – 4 MW

•Ethanol – 60 MW

•Methane Digester – 10 MW

•Bio-diesel/CO2/Mfg – 4 MW

Upper Missouri

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2004 LF2007 LF - Preliminary

MWUpper Missouri

Total Summer PeakUpper Missouri

Total Summer Peak•Oil Field Activity – 170 MW

•Bakken – 35 MW

•Cedar Hills – 135 MW

•Ethanol Plant – 12 MW

•Enbridge Pipeline – 6 MW

•Oil Field Activity – 170 MW•Bakken – 35 MW

•Cedar Hills – 135 MW

•Ethanol Plant – 12 MW

•Enbridge Pipeline – 6 MW

Central Power

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2004 LF2007 LF - Preliminary

MWCentral Power

Total Summer PeakCentral Power

Total Summer Peak•Keystone Pipeline – 10 MW

•Enbridge Pipeline – 4 MW

•Ethanol / Bio-diesel – 16 MW

•Keystone Pipeline – 10 MW

•Enbridge Pipeline – 4 MW

•Ethanol / Bio-diesel – 16 MW

PRECorp

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2004 LF2007 LF - Preliminary

MWPRECorp

Total Summer PeakPRECorp

Total Summer Peak

•CBM

•Coal

•CBM

•Coal

Total ForecastTotal Forecast

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,00019

7119

7319

7519

7719

7919

8119

8319

8519

8719

8919

9119

9319

9519

97

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2004 LF2007 LF - Preliminary

MW

800800

1,6501,650

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,00019

7119

7319

7519

7719

7919

8119

8319

8519

8719

8919

9119

9319

9519

9719

9920

0120

0320

0520

0720

0920

1120

1320

1520

1720

1920

21

2004 LF2007 LF - Preliminary2007 LF - Potential

MW

700700

Potential Loads• Ethanol / Bio-diesel – 150 MW

• Large Gas Compression – 150 MW

• Data Center – 130 MW

• Oil Field Activity – 80 MW

• Coal Drying – 70 MW

• Manufacturing – 50 MW

• Metals Mining – 30 MW

• Water – 20 MW

• Railroad Hub – 20 MW

Potential Loads• Ethanol / Bio-diesel – 150 MW

• Large Gas Compression – 150 MW

• Data Center – 130 MW

• Oil Field Activity – 80 MW

• Coal Drying – 70 MW

• Manufacturing – 50 MW

• Metals Mining – 30 MW

• Water – 20 MW

• Railroad Hub – 20 MW

800800

1,6501,650

Total ForecastTotal Forecast

Groton 1 Operation

Transmission Operations

Transmission Operations

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Load Serving

Resource Development

New Resources• Committed New Resources

– Groton 2 (95 MW)– Dry Fork Station (352 MW)– Waste Heat (28 MW)– LRS Turbine Upgrades (16 MW)

• Committed New Resources– Groton 2 (95 MW)– Dry Fork Station (352 MW)– Waste Heat (28 MW)– LRS Turbine Upgrades (16 MW)

• Planned New Resources– NextGen – 700 MW (Dec 2013)– MRY III – 100 MW (Jun 2016)– Wind (10% Goal)

• 2009 – 100 MW• 2014 – 50 MW

• Planned New Resources– NextGen – 700 MW (Dec 2013)– MRY III – 100 MW (Jun 2016)– Wind (10% Goal)

• 2009 – 100 MW• 2014 – 50 MW

BEPC Summer SurplusNew Resources

BEPC Summer SurplusNew Resources

-1,600-1,400-1,200-1,000

-800-600-400-200

0200

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

MWMW

PlannedPlannedCommittedCommitted

Color GGS 2

Groton 2Groton 2

BEPC Summer SurplusBEPC Summer Surplus

-1,600-1,400-1,200-1,000

-800-600-400-200

0200

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

MWMW

Groton 2 Timeline

Sept. 2006: NOI

March 2007: App. Sub.March 2007: App. Sub.

Sept. 2007: ConstructionSept. 2007: Construction

Sept. 2008: COD

June 2008: COD

Jan. 2007: App. Sub.Jan. 2007: App. Sub.

June 2007: ConstructionJune 2007: Construction

Major Concerns

• Low Hydro

• Loss of generator

• Transmission constraints

• Ability to move power into the region

• Low Hydro

• Loss of generator

• Transmission constraints

• Ability to move power into the region

Request

Basin Electric requests the SD PUC to waive the remainder of the 6-month

waiting period to enable Basin Electric to submit their application in January

2007 instead of March 2007.