Source apportionment for Thessaloniki, Greecea PMF approach and a CAMx approach
Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece
Scientific Responsible: Prof. Melas D.
Poupkou A., Liora N., Karagiannidis A., Markakis K., Giannaros T.
APICE - Final Conference, 8th November 2012, Venice
University of Western Macedonia, Greece
Scientific Responsible: Prof. Bartzis J.
D. Saraga, E. Tolis, K. Filiou
Thessaloniki’s monitoring campaign
PMF results (UOWM)
CAMx results (AUTH)
Discussion
- Main conclusions
- Mitigation Measures in the Future
- Future Emissions
Presentation overview
sampling sites
Thessaloniki city
PORT CITY CENTER (TOWN HALL)
PM2.5 sampling at two sites in Thessaloniki
PORT
CITY CENTER (TOWN HALL)
Monitoring campaign schedule
SCHEDULLED
CANCELLED
NEW DATES
date1st PERIOD PER MONTH 1st PERIOD PER MONTH
6/11 7/118/11 9/11 10/1111/1
112/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12
12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
date1st PERIOD PER MONTH 1st PERIOD PER MONTH
6/11 7/118/11 9/11 10/1111/1
112/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12
12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
1st period: 14/6/2011-21/12/2011
2nd period: 14/2/2012-22/5/2012
322 samples in total
24-hour PM2.5 samples collected on quartz fiber filters using low volume samplers
PAH TRACE ELEMENTS
OC/ECIONIC SPECIES
Source apportionment study for Thessaloniki
PMF model application
results from 1st period
Source apportionment study for Thessaloniki PMF model application
Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) model
a widely used receptor model based on factor analysiswhich provides a flexible modeling approach using a set of data at a receptor site, to indentify the unknown sources and estimate their contribution
2 Selected sites: port & city center (Town hall)
period: selected days from June-July-August & November-December 2011
PMF model analysis for one- year data (June 2011 to May 2012) IN PROGRESS
?
?
?
Samples (n>50) at receptor site
Source 1 Source 2 Source n
Source apportionment by PMF model
Chemical species data used for PMF analysis:
7 (out of 27 measured) PAHs:, Benzo[b]fluoranthene, Benzo[k]fluoranthene, Benzo[e]pyrene, Benzo[a]pyrene, Indeno[cd]pyrene, Dibenzo[a,h]anthracene, Benzo[ghi]perylene. Lighter PAHS were excluded from the analysis because of their volatility
4 (out of 9 measured) ions: NO3-, SO4
2-, Na+, NH4+
Cl- and Na+ were excluded/ set as weak species respectively because of their large analytical errors. K+, Mg+, Ca2+ ions were excluded as their pair elemental species were used in the analysis (to avoid double counting mass)
13 Metals: Pb, Ni, Cu, V, Mn, Cr, Zn, Mg, K, Ti, Fe, Ca, Al
Organic & Elemental carbon: OC, EC.
experience obtained from the “Intercomparison source apportionment analysis on Marseille data " was used
PMF resultsSampling site: Thessaloniki’s port
0
20
40
60
80
100
Be
nzo
[b]fl
uor
anth
en
eB
en
zo[k
]flu
oran
the
ne
ben
zo[e
]pyr
en
eb
enzo
[a]p
yre
ne
ind
eno
[1,2
,3-
dib
enz
o[a
,h]a
nth
race
ben
zo[g
hi]p
ery
len
eio
n N
O3
-io
nS
O42
-io
nN
a+
ion
NH
4+
Pb Ni
Cu V
Mn
Cr
Zn
Mg
K
T
i F
e C
a
Al
OC
Ε
C
% c
on
trib
uti
on
0
20
40
60
80
100
Ben
zo[b
]fluo
rant
hene
Ben
zo[k
]fluo
rant
hene
benz
o[e]
pyre
nebe
nzo[
a]py
rene
inde
no[1
,2,3
-di
benz
o[a,
h]an
thra
cebe
nzo[
ghi]p
eryl
ene
ion
NO
3-io
nSO
42-
ionN
a+io
nNH
4+ Pb Ni
Cu V
Mn Cr
Zn
Mg K
T
i F
e C
a Al
OC
Ε
C
% c
on
trib
utio
n
0
20
40
60
80
100
Be
nzo
[b]fl
uo
ran
the
ne
Be
nzo
[k]fl
uo
ran
the
ne
be
nzo
[e]p
yre
ne
be
nzo
[a]p
yre
ne
ind
en
o[1
,2,3
-
dib
en
zo[a
,h]a
nth
race
be
nzo
[gh
i]pe
ryle
ne
ion
NO
3-
ion
SO
42
-
ion
Na
+io
nN
H4
+
Pb Ni
Cu V
Mn
Cr
Zn
Mg
K
Ti
Fe
C
a
Al
OC
Ε
C
% c
on
trib
uti
on
0
20
40
60
80
100
Ben
zo[b
]flu
oran
then
eB
enzo
[k]f
luor
anth
ene
benz
o[e]
pyre
nebe
nzo[
a]py
rene
inde
no[1
,2,3
-di
benz
o[a,
h]an
thra
cebe
nzo[
ghi]p
eryl
ene
ion
NO
3-io
nSO
42-
ionN
a+io
nNH
4+ Pb Ni
Cu V
Mn
Cr
Zn
Mg K
Ti
Fe
Ca Al
OC
Ε
C
% c
on
trib
uti
on
0
20
40
60
80
100
Be
nzo
[b]fl
uo
ran
the
ne
Be
nzo
[k]fl
uo
ran
the
ne
be
nzo
[e]p
yre
ne
be
nzo
[a]p
yre
ne
ind
en
o[1
,2,3
-
dib
en
zo[a
,h]a
nth
race
be
nzo
[gh
i]pe
ryle
ne
ion
NO
3-
ion
SO
42
-
ion
Na
+
ion
NH
4+
Pb Ni
Cu V
Mn
Cr
Zn
Mg
K
Ti
Fe
Ca
Al
OC
ΕC
% c
on
trib
uti
on
combustion /central heating
mixed: Vehicles/Anthropogenic
Nitrates/Sulphates
Mixed marine origin: sea
/fuel oil /ships emissions
mineral/industrial
mixed: Crustal/road dust/Incineration?
→ 5 groups of sources identified
PMF results
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
15 /
6/16
/6/2
011
4/7/
2011
5/7/
2011
6/7/
2011
7/7/
2011
8/7/
2011
9/7/
2011
10/7
/201
111
/7/2
011
12/7
/201
113
/7/2
011
14/7
/201
115
/7/2
011
16/7
/201
122
/8/2
011
23/8
/201
124
/8/2
011
1/11
/201
12/
11/2
011
3/11
/201
14/
11/2
011
5/11
/201
16/
11/2
011
7/11
/201
114
/12/
2011
15/1
2/20
1116
/12/
2011
17/1
2/20
1118
/12/
2011
co
ntr
ibu
tio
n Factor 5
Factor 4
Factor 3
Factor 2
Factor 1
Sampling site: Thessaloniki’s port
• combustions/central heating source: elevated during cold period
PMF results Sampling site: Thessaloniki’s city center (Town Hall)→ 4 groups of sources identified
0
20
40
60
80
100
Be
nzo
[b]fl
uo
ran
the
ne
Be
nzo
[k]fl
uo
ran
the
ne
be
nzo
[e]p
yre
ne
be
nzo
[a]p
yre
ne
ind
en
o[1
,2,3
-d
ibe
nzo
[a,h
]an
thra
ceb
en
zo[g
hi]p
ery
len
eio
n N
O3
-io
nS
O4
2-
ion
Na
+io
nN
H4
+P
b Ni
Cu V
Mn
Cr
Zn
M
g
K
Ti
Fe
C
a
Al
OC
Ε
C
% c
on
trib
uti
on
0
20
40
60
80
100
Be
nzo
[b]fl
uo
ran
the
ne
Be
nzo
[k]fl
uo
ran
the
ne
be
nzo
[e]p
yre
ne
be
nzo
[a]p
yre
ne
ind
en
o[1
,2,3
-
dib
en
zo[a
,h]a
nth
race
be
nzo
[gh
i]pe
ryle
ne
ion
NO
3-
ion
SO
42
-
ion
Na
+io
nN
H4
+
Pb Ni
Cu V
Mn
Cr
Zn
Mg
K
Ti
Fe
C
a
Al
OC
Ε
C
% c
on
trib
uti
on
0
20
40
60
80
Ben
zo[b
]fluo
rant
hene
Ben
zo[k
]fluo
rant
hene
benz
o[e]
pyre
nebe
nzo[
a]py
rene
inde
no[1
,2,3
-di
benz
o[a,
h]an
thra
cebe
nzo[
ghi]p
eryl
ene
ion
NO
3-io
nSO
42-
ionN
a+io
nNH
4+ Pb Ni
Cu V
Mn Cr
Zn
Mg K
T
i F
e C
a Al
OC
Ε
C
% c
on
trib
uti
on
0
20
40
60
80
100
Be
nzo
[b]fl
uo
ran
the
ne
Be
nzo
[k]fl
uo
ran
the
ne
be
nzo
[e]p
yre
ne
be
nzo
[a]p
yre
ne
ind
en
o[1
,2,3
-
dib
en
zo[a
,h]a
nth
race
be
nzo
[gh
i]pe
ryle
ne
ion
NO
3-
ion
SO
42
-io
nN
a+
ion
NH
4+
Pb Ni
Cu V
Mn
Cr
Zn
Mg
K
Ti
Fe
C
a
Al
OC
Ε
C
% c
on
trib
uti
on
combustion /central heating
mixed: Crustal/
road dust
mixed: nitrates /sulphates,
anthropogenicIndustrial
Mineral/Industrial
Possibly marine source included
PMF results Sampling site: Thessaloniki’s city center (Town Hall)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
15 /
6/16
/6/2
011
4/7/
2011
5/7/
2011
6/7/
2011
7/7/
2011
8/7/
2011
9/7/
2011
10/7
/201
111
/7/2
011
12/7
/201
113
/7/2
011
14/7
/201
115
/7/2
011
16/7
/201
122
/8/2
011
23/8
/201
124
/8/2
011
1/11
/201
12/
11/2
011
3/11
/201
14/
11/2
011
5/11
/201
16/
11/2
011
7/11
/201
114
/12/
2011
15/1
2/20
1116
/12/
2011
17/1
2/20
1118
/12/
2011
co
ntr
ibu
tio
n Factor 4
Factor 3
Factor 2
Factor 1
• combustions/central heating source: elevated during cold period
• mixed source: nitrates /sulphates, anthropogenic, Industrial/ ships emissions: elevated during warm season
PMF results
PM2.5
marine origin: sea + fuel oil
combustion/ships emissions
22%
mineral/industrial36%crustal/incineratio
n/other9%
combustion15%
mixed: secondary aerosols, vehicles,
anthropogenic18%
Sampling site: Thessaloniki’s port
Sampling site: Thessaloniki’s city center (Town Hall)
For the examined period:
crustal/road dust source + combustions/central heating source: similar contributions to PM2.5 for both sites (appr.30%)
secondary aerosol/vehicles/anthropogenic source contribution: elevated at city center area (51%)
mixed sea origin + fuel combustion/ships emissions
source contribute at the port area
PM2.5
mixed crustal, road dust
23%
mineral, industrial
19%
sulphate/nitrate, anthropogenic,
vehicles (possibly marine source
included)51%
combustion7%
Source apportionment study for Thessaloniki
CAMx model application
Modeling System Set-up
CAMx (version 5.3) simulates the Emission, Dispersion, Chemical reaction and Removal of pollutants in the troposphere on three-dimensional grid(s).
Meteorology from the application of the meteorological model WRF (version 3.2.1)
WRF-CAMx runs for the 2011 SUMMER PERIOD and the winter period 15 NOV TO 15 DEC 2011.
Chemical Boundary Conditions
Gaseous and Particulate Chemical BCs for the Balkan domain taken from the global modeling system IFS-MOZART (within FP7 EU project MACC).
Balkan domain
10km resolution
Thessaloniki domain
2km resolution
Emission Sources and PM Species Apportioned for Thessaloniki
i. Maritime/Harbor activities (e.g. ships, loading/unloading of goods, vehicles/machineries)
ii. Road transportiii. Industriesiv. Central heatingv. Windblown Dust vi. Biogenic NMVOCsvii. Left over sources (e.g. industrial and construction machineries, waste treatment,
agriculture, solvent use, distribution of fuels).Em
issi
on
So
urc
es
i. Sulfate (SO4)ii. Particulate nitrate (NO3)iii. Ammonium (NH4)iv. Secondary organic aerosol (SOA)v. Elemental carbon (EC)vi. Primary organic aerosol (POA)vii. Crustal PMviii. Other PM
PM
sp
ecie
s The pollution transported to Thessaloniki from emission sources OUTSIDE the study domain will NOT be examined in this presentation.
Emission Inventory for the Maritime and Harbor Activities
Emissions (tn/yr) CO NOx SOx NMVOCs NH3 PM10 PM2.5
Passenger ships 60.67 36.80 10.38 12.73 0.009 1.62 1.62
Cargo ships 881.02 7022.23 4537.84 113.92 0.904 220.79 220.79
Tugs 2.13 10.10 0.44 0.39 0.004 0.39 0.39
Inland waterways 26.78 72.87 - 9.58 0.011 7.59 7.15
Fishing Boats 315.75 3738.86 118.28 57.37 1.301 57.72 57.72
Harbor Operations (loading, unloading, pilling)
- - - - - 37.2 5.64
Vehicles operating in the port - - - - - 0.181 0.043
Total 1286.35 10880.86 4666.93 193.99 2.23 325.56 293.36
Most important activities in terms of emissions IN OR NEAR THE PORT:
PM2.5: Ship Hotelling (Cargo ships).
PM10: In-port Processes (loading, unloading and pilling of goods/materials).
SOx, NOx: Ship Maneuvering (Cargo ships); NOx ship hotelling emissions are comparable.
CO, NMVOCs: Ship Hotelling (Ferries) .
Emissions for the THESSALONIKI STUDY AREA (Reference year 2010)
Source Apportionment for PM10 / PM2.5 Port (Summer 2011)
Road transport: Highest contribution to PM10 and PM2.5 mean concentrations.
Maritime/Harbor activities:
Moderate contribution to PM10 (14%)Small contribution to PM2.5 (6%)
despite the emission contribution being ~35% for PM10 and ~15% for PM2.5.
Con
cent
ratio
ns
Source Apportionment for PM10 / PM2.5 Port (15 Nov – 15 Dec 2011)
Con
cent
ratio
ns
Road transport and Central heating: Equal contribution to PM10 levels (~30%).
Central heating: Highest contribution to PM2.5 levels.
Maritime/Harbor activities: Small contribution to PM10 and PM2.5.
~20% for PM10 emissions ~10% for PM2.5 emissions
Source Apportionment for PM10 / PM2.5 City Hall
The contribution of the Maritime and Harbor activities is very small.
Sum
mer
Win
ter
Maps of % Contribution to Mean PM2.5 Levels (Summer 2011)
BiogenicDustLeft Over
Maritime/Harbor IndustriesRoad Transport
Maritime/ harbor contribution over sea: PM10: up to 50% PM2.5: between 50% to 75%
Maps of % Contribution to Mean PM2.5 Levels (15 Nov - 15 Dec 2011)
Dust BiogenicCentral Heating
Road Transport Maritime Industries Left Over
Maritime/harbor contribution to PM10 and PM2.5 over sea: up to 20%
25
CO NOx SO2 NMVOCs NH3 PM10 PM2.5Passenger ships 35.22% 25.93% -49.42% 33.63% 19.21% -6.06% -6.06%
Cargo ships 29.37% 40.73% -66.56% 40.56% 37.72% -63.92% -63.92%
Inland Waterways 2168.66% 2142.43% - 2152.89% 2152.89% 2163.64% 2141.1%
Fishing boats -35%
Harbour operations (loading, unloading, pilling)
- - - - - 78.01% 77.82%
Total emissions 58.48% 28.80% -65.71% 122.20% 5.82% 9.42% -1.23%
% Difference between present time (2010) and future time (2020) emissions
Maritime/Harbor future emissions were calculated considering both the:
1. Port evolution (e.g. 6th pier extension, construction of a marina) (activity data provided by the Thessaloniki Port Authority SA)
2. Future normative framework according to which the sulfur content in ship fuels should be reduced to 0.50% m/m during cruising mode (sulfur content during maneuvering (in Greece) and hotelling mode is 0.1 % m/m).
With a View to the Future…..
26
Mitigation Measures in the Future
1. Cold ironing (zero ship hotelling emissions).
2. Use of chemical wetting agents to control the storage pile emissions (-90% of piling
emissions).
CO NOx SO2 NMVOCs NH3 PM10 PM2.5
-4.72% -1.46% -1.68% -4.64% 0.01% -23.19% -9.00%
% Changes in maritime/harbor future time emissions due to mitigation measures OVER THE WHOLE STUDY DOMAIN
CO NOx SO2 NMVOCs NH3 PM10 PM2.5
-79.72% -45.60% -15.46% -81.51% 0.00% -49.74% -52.28%
% Changes in maritime/harbor future time emissions due to mitigation measures NEAR and IN THE PORT
PORT CAMx: A) Moderate to small contribution to PM10 (~15%) and PM2.5 (~5%) in summer,
B) Small contribution to PM10 (8%) and PM2.5 (3%) in winter. PMF: contribution to PM2.5 (~22%)
CITY HALL PMF & CAMx: Very small contribution to PM2.5 (<5%) both during summer and winter .
• Existing discrepancies because of: • Two different approaches that identify emission sources that partly match • CAMx Maritime/Harbor sector = Ships + (un)Loading of goods + Vehicles/Machineries
(possible underestimation of emissions)• PMF Marine sector = Ships + Sea Salt (possible overestimation due to the identification
of contribution from sources other than ships) OVER THE SEA (CAMx results)
High contribution in summer: Up to 50% for PM10 and more than 50% (up to 75%) for PM2.5.
Moderate contribution in winter: Up to 20% for PM10 and PM2.5.27
Conclusions – Contribution to PM levels
1. In the year 2020, projected maritime/harbor emissions show:
Small increase in PM10 (~ +10%) Very small decrease in PM2.5 (~ -1.2%) Important decrease in SO2 (~ -65%) Moderate to important increases in CO, NOx, NMVOCs.
2. Mitigation measures like Cold Ironing and the use of Chemical Wetting agents to
control the storage pile emissions are expected to decrease by:
-50% PM10 and PM2.5 emissions in and near the port area
-23% PM10 and -9% PM2.5 over the whole Thessaloniki study domain.
28
Conclusions - Future Emissions
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