Friday, April 21, 2023

Asia’s Poorest and Hungry:Trends and Characteristics

Akhter Ahmed, Ruth Hill, Doris Wiesmann, and Lisa Smith

International Food Policy Research Institute

Policy Forum

Session C on “Poverty and Hunger in Rural Asia”

Manila

August 9-10, 2007

Page 2INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

Poverty in Asia: Where the poor livePoor living on less than $1 a day

937 million in 1990

Middle East1.3 million

Central Asia1.9 million

Southeast Asia

81.9 million (9%)

East Asia 374.9 million

(40%)South Asia479.2 million

(51%)

614 million in 2004

Middle East1.5 million

Central Asia3.5 million

(1%)

Southeast Asia33.7 million

(5%)

East Asia 128.6 million

(21%)

South Asia446.2 million

(73%)

Page 3INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

Where the poor, the poorer, and the poorest Live

Extreme poor(<$1 and $0.75):

372 million in 2004

Ultra poor(<$0.50):

29 million in 2004

Middle East1.0 million

Central Asia2.3 million

(1%)

Southeast Asia21.9 million

(6%)

East Asia83.1 million

(22%)

South Asia263.6 million

(71%)

Hardcore poor(<$0.75 and $0.50):213 million in 2004

Middle East0.41 million

Central Asia0.9 million

Southeast Asia8.2 million

(4%)

East Asia40.8 million

(19%)

South Asia162.9 million

(77%)

Middle East0.1 million

Central Asia0.4 million

(1%)

East Asia4.7 million

(16%)

Southeast Asia3.7 million

(13%)

South Asia19.7 million

(70%)

Page 4INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

Trends in Extreme, Hardcore, and Ultra poverty rates: 1990-2004

East Asia & Pacific

0

5

10

15

20

25

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2004

Per

cent

age

of p

opul

atio

n

South Asia

0

5

10

15

20

25

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2004P

erce

ntag

e of

pop

ulat

ion

Developing World

0

5

10

15

20

25

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2004

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of

po

pu

latio

n

Extreme Poverty

Hardcore Poverty

Ultra Poverty

Page 5INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

Overall, poverty in Asia declined more for those closer to poverty line

Developing World

-10.5

-1.9

-4.0

-5.7

-5.1

-2.9

-1.4

-12

-8

-4

0

Perce

ntage

point c

hange

Change in $1 poverty rate

Change that would have resultedfrom everyone’s incomeimproving by the same amountActual change in extreme povertyrate

Actual change in hardcorepoverty rate

Actual change in ultra povertyrate

Asia

-15.6

-5.0-5.8 -6.1

-7.4

-4.4

-2.4

-16

-13

-10

-7

-4

-1

2

Pe

rce

nta

ge

po

int c

ha

ng

e

Page 6INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

In rural India, poverty fell most for those living between 50 and 75 cents a day

Developing World

-10.5

-1.9

-4.0

-5.7

-5.1

-2.9

-1.4

-12

-8

-4

0

Perce

ntage

point c

hange

Change in $1 poverty rate

Change that would have resultedfrom everyone’s incomeimproving by the same amount

Actual change in extreme povertyrate

Actual change in hardcorepoverty rate

Actual change in ultra povertyrate

Rural India

-10.7

-2.0-1.0

-4.7

-6.7

-4.0-3.0

-15

-10

-5

0

5

Per

cent

age

poin

t cha

nge

Page 7INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

South Asia is a current hot spot of hunger,but hunger declined considerably

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

South Asia-1992 South Asia-2003 East Asia andPacific-1992

East Asia andPacific-2003

Hun

ger

Inde

x

Under-five mortality

Underweight children

Undernourished

Page 8INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

Global Hunger Index (2003):Ranking of Asian Countries

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

CambodiaTajikistan

BangladeshIndia

NepalLao PDR

Timor-LestePakistan

Korea, Dem. Rep.Vietnam

PhilippinesSri LankaMyanmarMongolia

UzbekistanArmenia

IndonesiaThailandGeorgia

TurkmenistanAzerbaijan

Kyrgyz Rep.China

KazakhstanMalaysia

IranTurkey

Saudi ArabiaSyrian Arab Rep.

KuwaitLebanon

Global Hunger Index

Page 9INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

Selected Findings from Country Case Studies:

Analysis of Nationally Representative Household Survey Data

Page 10INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

Poverty is predominantly rural (Poor living on less than $1 a day)

55

3735

15

7

46

31

20

13

5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Bangladesh India Vietnam Tajikistan Sri Lanka

Per

cent

Rural Urban

Page 11INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

Prevalence of hunger is higher in urban areas(Less than 2,200 kcal/person/day)

69

6360 58

5652

38

60 59

48

58

34

49

31

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Bangladesh Sri Lanka Pakistan India Laos Timor-Leste Tajikistan

Perc

ent

Urban Rural

Page 12INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

• South Asian rural landless are hard to reach—they benefit a little from agricultural development

• Lacking draft animals and farm implements, they can seldom work as sharecroppers, so most depend on daily wages for livelihood

Rural poor with no cultivable land

77

58

31

17

0

20

40

60

80

100

Pakistan Bangladesh Vietnam Tajikistan

Percen

t

Most Pakistani and Bangladeshi rural poor living on less than $1-a-day are landless