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SalesPlanning&Forecasting
Session
2
Sanjeev Varshney
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StrategicPlanningProcess
1. Define the business mission
2. Conduct a situation audit:
Market attractiveness analysisCompetitor analysisSelf-analysis
3. Identify strategic opportunities
5. Establish specific objectives and allocate resources
7. Evaluate performance and make adjustments
6. Develop a channel mix to implement strategy
4. Evaluate strategic alternatives
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MarketAnalysis
0
50
100
1 s t Q t r 2 n d Q t r 3 r d Q t r 4 t h Q t r
MARKET
FACTORS
COMPETITIVE
FACTORS
ENVIRONMENTAL
FACTORS
ANALYSIS OF
STRENGTHS &
WEAKNESSES
Barriers to entry
Bargaining power of
vendors
Competitive rivalry
Threat of superior
new formats
Technology
Economic
Regulatory
Social
Size
Growth
Seasonality
Business cycles
Management
capabilities
Financial resources
Locations
OperationsMerchandise
Store Management
Customer loyalty
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Decisionsfor
Channel
Strategy
TargetAudience
ChannelDesign
SustainableCompetitiveAdvantage
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MarketPotential
Vs Sales
Potential
Sales
Potential
Market
Potential
Universe
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EstimatingMarket
&
Sales
Potential
Customeranalysisisthestartingpoint
Whobuys
the
product
Whousestheproduct
Whatistheprofile(demographics,lifestyleetc.)
Whatarethebuyinghabits
IdentifytheMarketFactor
Surveyof
Buyer
Intention
Testmarkets
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ProductPossessionAnalysis/LifeStyle
analysis
Thiswillhelpyouinidentifyingpossible
marketsegments
in
absence
of
psychological
andbehavioraldata
Better
than
demographic
profiling Becomesabasisto dobetterdemand
planningandrunmarketingcampaignsand
launchschemes
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MarketFactor
Index
Example:
BuyingPower
Index
=(5I+2P+3R)/10
I:PercentageofDisposablepersonal
incomein
the
area
P:PercentageofUSpopulationinthearea
R:PercentageofUSretailsalesinthearea
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89
IndicesforAssessingSalesPotential
MarketPotentialIndex(MPI)
NumberofHouseholdsPurchasingaProductor
ServiceinaTradeArea
SpendingPotential
Index
(SPI)
AverageAmountSpentonaProductorService
byaHouseholdinaTradeArea
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BBDOMarket
MPV
Index
&
MII
Provides3indices:
MarketPotentialValue(MPV) Thisisameasureofaggregatepotential.
MarketIntensityIndex(MII) Thisisameasureofthequalityand
affluenceof
the
consumers
and
markets.
MediaExposureIndex(MEI) ThisisameasureofMassMediaavailabilitybyindividualmassmedia.
Datafor515districtsacross21statesand3unionterritories.Thesedistrictsareacombinationofbothurban(towns)andruralareas(villages).
Providesan
aggregateprosperitylevel,
measuresthequalityofthemarket
Itprovidesinsightsintomarkets
Ataggregate
level
Inpercapitaterms
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InformationYoucanGet
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EstimatingMarket
Potential:
Exercise
Inyourgroupsdiscussandcomeoutwith
method/sto
go
about
estimating
market
potentialforfollowingproducts:
ACs(window/split)inKolkata
Menformalandcasualwearinmidendcategory
(Rs.800Rs1500).
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Whatisthelinkbetween:
Workingmen
who
buy
Allen
Solly
shirts
also
buy
Barbiedolls
Menwhobuypremiumwhiskycanbeoffered:
Hotwheel
cars
as
gifts
13
ProductBasket
Analysis
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14
ClusteringExercise
Jim Tim Ram Shyam Seema
Goodday TigerBiscuit Tiger Biscuit Goodday Goodday
Kissan Jam Kissan Jam Kissan jam
Britannia
cheese
Britannia
cheese
Brownbread Whitebig
bread
White bread Brown bread Whitebread
smallpack
Diet Coke Coke DietCoke Coke
Lowfat
Margarine
Amul butter
familypack
Amul Butter Low fat
margarine
Amul butter
TropicanaMixedfruit
juice
Tropicanaorangejuice
Tropicanajuice
Tropicana
juice
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PatternGeneration
MarketPatterns
Category
patterns SeasonalPatterns
Discountpurchasepatterns
IndividualConsumerpatterns(trends,ProductBasketanalysis,Bill
Valueanalysis
etc.)
Whataretheybuying?
Whenaretheybuying?
Whoarethey?
Whereare
they
buying
from?
Whatelsearetheybuying?
SegmentationisdoneusingthispatternsandthenSalesprogramssuggested.
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Modelfor
Demand
Planning
CRMData
analysis(PBA)Lifestyleanalysis
Classifytheminto
categoriesfor
different
treatment forstocking
&supplychain
Lookforcurrentandfuture
patterns
Identifywhatsells
andwhatdoesnot
Identify
consumer
patterns
IdentifyLifestyle
patterns
Carryout
Market
Analysisand
establishSegment
strength
EstablishConsumerDemandfor
eachand
divide
them
between
regionsEstablish
Consumer
Demandforeachsegment
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SalesForecast
AtCorporatelevel
RegionalLevel
Territorylevel
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DevelopingSales
Forecast
TypesofsalesForecast
Productlevel
TimePeriod
Geographicarea
Channelwise
Accountwise
Matrixforecasts
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SalesForecasting
Methods
ExecutiveOpinion
Delphi
Salesforcecompositemethod
Surveyofbuyersintentionmethod
Testmarketingmethod
Movingaverage
Exponentialsmoothening
Decompositionmethod
Regressionanalysis
Econometric
analysis
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FactorsInfluencing
the
sales
Forecast
Marketingplans
Conditionswithin
the
Industry
MarketConditions
GeneralBusiness
Conditions
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Developsales
Budget
PercentageofSalesMethod
Objective&
Task
Method
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TheSales
Budget
TheSellingExpenseBudget
TheAdministrative
Budget
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StrategicPlanning
StrategicPlanningfortheTotalCompany
StrategicMarketing
Planning
SalesForceStrategy
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ExampleCompanyObjective Marketing Goal SalesForceGoal
Increasemarketshare
from8%to20%in
twoyears
Intensifymarketeffortsin
domesticmarketsto
increasesalesvolumeby
300 crore nextyear
a. Enternewgeographic
marketsandselltonew
customers
b. Cover existinggeographic
markets moreaggressively
MarketingStrategy
(Sales ForceGoal)Sales
force
strategySales
Force
Tactics
EnterNewmarkets Buildlongterm,
customer
relations
1. Stressmissionarysellinginsales
trainingandsupervision
2. Stresssalary elementin
compensationplan
Sellaggressivelyin
existingmarkets
Increasesales
force
motivation
1. Conduct moresalescontests
2. Stresscommissionfeatureinpay
plan
3. Increasefield
supervision
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Assignment1
InyourgroupscarryoutSalesForceplanningfor
thefollowing
problems:
1. Akzonobel (Dulux Paints)wantstoincreaseits
marketsharefrom8%to12%in2yearstime
2. Cocacola
India
wants
to
increase
its
overall
revenueby12%
3. Madura
fashion
&
Lifestyle
wants
to
become
a
6500crore companyfromcurrent2600crore
companyby2015.
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Mycontact
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