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PRESENTED BY
RAHUL CHANDIRAMANI SANDIP RAMANI SAMIR MARADIYA VIRAL PATEL JAIMIN PATEL SAYEED KRUSHID
PROMESH PATEL
SUBMITEDTO
GEETA MADAM
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INTRODUCTION MEANING TYPES FACTORS METHODS ADVANTAGES
DISADVANTAGES BASED ON STATASTICS CONCLUSION
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Forecasting is the estimation of the valueof a variable (or set of variables) at some
future point in time. In this note we willconsider some methods for forecasting.A forecasting exercise is usually carriedout in order to provide an aid to
decision-making and in planning thefuture
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Short term forecasts
(one hour to a week)
Medium forecasts
(a month up to a year)
Long term forecasts
(over one year)
Load Forecasts
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Long Term 5+ years into the future R&D, plant location, product planning Principally judgement-based
Medium Term 1 season to 2 years Aggregate planning, capacity planning, sales forecasts Mixture of quantitative methods and judgement
Short Term 1 day to 1 year, less than 1 season Demand forecasting, staffing levels, purchasing, inventory
levels Quantitative methods
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Weather influence
Time factors
Customer classes
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Electric load has an obvious correlation toweather. The most important variablesresponsible in load changes are:
Dry and wet bulb temperature Dew point Humidity
Wind Speed / Wind Direction Sky Cover Sunshine
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In the forecasting model, we should also
consider time factors such as:
The day of the week
The hour of the day
Holidays
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Electric utilities usually serve different
types of customers such as residential,commercial, and industrial.
It is nessary for the people to know proper
sources of resources which used inresidental and commercial forecasting
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INDEX NUMBER
EXTRAPOLATION
REGRESSION ANALYSIS ECONOMIC MODELS
OPINION POLL
GRAPHICAL METHOD METHOD OF LEAST SQUARE
EXPONENTIAL ANALYSIS
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ESTIMATE FUTURE
STUDY OF ECONOMICS VARIABLE
SHOW CURRENT PERFORMANCE
DECISION MAKING
USEFUL FOR BUDGET
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
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IT IS A LONG PROCESS
WRONG ESTIMATENOT CLEAR ASSUMPTION
UNCERTAIN FUTURE
MORE EXPANSIVE
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Year x Production
y
X=x-
1994
XY X2
1992 40 -2 -80 4
1993 50 -1 -50 1
1994 62 0 0 0
1995 58 1 58 1
1996
TOTAL
60
270
2
0
120
48
4
10
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E = SIGMA, N= no of year,x= year, y=production , find out results of 1998
Ey =na+bEx this is first equation
Exy =aEx+bEx2 this is second equation
270=5a+b{0} -----------[1]
48 =a{0}+b{10}--------[2]
5a =270
a=54
b =48/10 b = 4.8
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Putting the values a&b we find values
Y=54+4.8x X=X-1994
Y=54+4.8[x-1994]
Y=54+4.8 [1998-1994]
54+4.8 [4]
54+19.2
=73.2 thousand tons in year 1998
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Forecasting is the very basis ofbusiness planning. it is an
essential part ofthe processof planning. According to Henry fayol
first emphasized theimportant of forecasting. According to james redfiled
essential elements offorecasting.
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