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PRESENTED BY

RAHUL CHANDIRAMANI SANDIP RAMANI SAMIR MARADIYA VIRAL PATEL JAIMIN PATEL SAYEED KRUSHID

PROMESH PATEL

SUBMITEDTO

GEETA MADAM

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INTRODUCTION MEANING TYPES FACTORS METHODS ADVANTAGES

DISADVANTAGES BASED ON STATASTICS CONCLUSION

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Forecasting is the estimation of the valueof a variable (or set of variables) at some

future point in time. In this note we willconsider some methods for forecasting.A forecasting exercise is usually carriedout in order to provide an aid to

decision-making and in planning thefuture

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Short term forecasts

(one hour to a week)

Medium forecasts

(a month up to a year)

Long term forecasts

(over one year)

Load Forecasts

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Long Term 5+ years into the future R&D, plant location, product planning Principally judgement-based

Medium Term 1 season to 2 years Aggregate planning, capacity planning, sales forecasts Mixture of quantitative methods and judgement

Short Term 1 day to 1 year, less than 1 season Demand forecasting, staffing levels, purchasing, inventory

levels Quantitative methods

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Weather influence

Time factors

Customer classes

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Electric load has an obvious correlation toweather. The most important variablesresponsible in load changes are:

Dry and wet bulb temperature Dew point Humidity

Wind Speed / Wind Direction Sky Cover Sunshine

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In the forecasting model, we should also

consider time factors such as:

The day of the week

The hour of the day

Holidays

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Electric utilities usually serve different

types of customers such as residential,commercial, and industrial.

It is nessary for the people to know proper

sources of resources which used inresidental and commercial forecasting

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INDEX NUMBER

EXTRAPOLATION

REGRESSION ANALYSIS ECONOMIC MODELS

OPINION POLL

GRAPHICAL METHOD METHOD OF LEAST SQUARE

EXPONENTIAL ANALYSIS

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ESTIMATE FUTURE

STUDY OF ECONOMICS VARIABLE

SHOW CURRENT PERFORMANCE

DECISION MAKING

USEFUL FOR BUDGET

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

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IT IS A LONG PROCESS

WRONG ESTIMATENOT CLEAR ASSUMPTION

UNCERTAIN FUTURE

MORE EXPANSIVE

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Year x Production

y

X=x-

1994

XY X2

1992 40 -2 -80 4

1993 50 -1 -50 1

1994 62 0 0 0

1995 58 1 58 1

1996

TOTAL

60

270

2

0

120

48

4

10

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E = SIGMA, N= no of year,x= year, y=production , find out results of 1998

Ey =na+bEx this is first equation

Exy =aEx+bEx2 this is second equation

270=5a+b{0} -----------[1]

48 =a{0}+b{10}--------[2]

5a =270

a=54

b =48/10 b = 4.8

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Putting the values a&b we find values

Y=54+4.8x X=X-1994

Y=54+4.8[x-1994]

Y=54+4.8 [1998-1994]

54+4.8 [4]

54+19.2

=73.2 thousand tons in year 1998

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Forecasting is the very basis ofbusiness planning. it is an

essential part ofthe processof planning. According to Henry fayol

first emphasized theimportant of forecasting. According to james redfiled

essential elements offorecasting.

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