Overview of CEDM work on climate and weather
A1: Water and low carbon energy technologyA2: Hurricane impacts, and DA of modification
A3: Climate change and extreme events
A3.1: Drought
A3.2: Flooding (possibly including US/EU comparison)
A3.3 Implications of force majuere
A4: Economics and other consequences of ocean acidification
A5: Multiple stressors an coastal waters (also context for M2)
I1: CO2 emissions from filling in for variable and intermittent wind and PV
I2: Energy impacts of water desalination
I3: CC and air quality interaction
I4: AC in public spaces during heat waves
S1: Continued studies of the science and economics of SRM and its potential impacts
S2: Development of strategies for how best to manage knowledge about how to perform SRM
S3: Continued support and involvement in the broader public discourse on SRM
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A1: Water and low carbon energy technologyA2: Hurricane impacts, and DA of modification.
A3: Climate change and extreme events
A3.1: Drought
A3.2: Flooding (possibly including US/EU comparison)
A3.3 Implications of force majuere
A4: Economics and other consequences of ocean acidification
A5: Multiple stressors an coastal waters (also context for M2)
I1: CO2 emissions from filling in for variable and intermittent wind and PV
I2: Energy impacts of water desalination
I3: CC and air quality interaction
I4: AC in public spaces during heat waves
S1: Continued studies of the science and economics of SRM and its potential impacts.
S2: Development of strategies for how best to manage knowledge about how to perform SRM.
S3: Continued support and involvement in the broader public discourse on SRM.
I’ll say just a word about Iris’ work on this.
Then I will elaborate on this and say a bit more about our recent workshop.
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Southwest US drought variability: Cold vs warm Pacific
Polar Jet Stream
Wet
L Warm
Pacific Jet Stream
Warm East Pacific: El Niño or PDO+ phase
Blocking highpressure
HCold
Polar Jet Stream
Variable/weakerPacific Jet Stream
Wet
DryWarm
Cold East Pacific: La Niña or PDO- phase
To investigate variability in precipitation with the PDO, Iris has focused on Arizona and New Mexico.
• The impact of the PDO on precipitation varies with other climate patterns: ENSO, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the PNA.
• A clear distinction of the PDO signal in rainfall data may be hindered by the changing role of the PDO over the course of the year. Precipitation during winter and the Moonsoon season depend on very different processes that are differently impacted by the PDO.
Considering these factors, she has done a drought projection for the next two decades.
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The impacts for the current negative PDO phase are projected to be 1.6 times as large as the impacts of the A1B Scenario on P-E during 2020-2040 when evaluated according to the GPCC dataset, and about equal to the impacts of the A1B Scenario when evaluated according to the CRU dataset. This means that if future impacts of the PDO on precipitation are comparable to past impacts, the effect of the current negative PDO will at least double the expected impacts of global warming until 2030. The projected precipitation impacts of the combination of a negative PDO phase with a positive AMO phase are about twice as large as the impacts of the A1B Scenario on P-E during 2020-2040 when evaluated according to the GPCC dataset, and about equal to the impacts of the A1B Scenario when evaluated according to the CRU dataset. 6
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S3: Continued support and involvement in the broader public discourse on SRM
August 2011: Second multi-university summer study program for graduate students and other young investigators held at Banff
Jan 2011
January 2011: La Jolla IGBP workshop on ecosystem impacts of geoengineering
Paper now in press at AMBIO
June 2011: Lima IPCC expert meeting on geoengineering
October 2011: BPC report on U.S. research
March 2011:SRMGI Kavli Center
Jan 2012
SRMGI
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S2: Development of strategies for how best to manage knowledge about how to perform SRM
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