Overview of CEDM work on climate and weather

A1: Water and low carbon energy technologyA2: Hurricane impacts, and DA of modification

A3: Climate change and extreme events

A3.1: Drought

A3.2: Flooding (possibly including US/EU comparison)

A3.3 Implications of force majuere

A4: Economics and other consequences of ocean acidification

A5: Multiple stressors an coastal waters (also context for M2)

I1: CO2 emissions from filling in for variable and intermittent wind and PV

I2: Energy impacts of water desalination

I3: CC and air quality interaction

I4: AC in public spaces during heat waves

S1: Continued studies of the science and economics of SRM and its potential impacts

S2: Development of strategies for how best to manage knowledge about how to perform SRM

S3: Continued support and involvement in the broader public discourse on SRM

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A1: Water and low carbon energy technologyA2: Hurricane impacts, and DA of modification.

A3: Climate change and extreme events

A3.1: Drought

A3.2: Flooding (possibly including US/EU comparison)

A3.3 Implications of force majuere

A4: Economics and other consequences of ocean acidification

A5: Multiple stressors an coastal waters (also context for M2)

I1: CO2 emissions from filling in for variable and intermittent wind and PV

I2: Energy impacts of water desalination

I3: CC and air quality interaction

I4: AC in public spaces during heat waves

S1: Continued studies of the science and economics of SRM and its potential impacts.

S2: Development of strategies for how best to manage knowledge about how to perform SRM.

S3: Continued support and involvement in the broader public discourse on SRM.

I’ll say just a word about Iris’ work on this.

Then I will elaborate on this and say a bit more about our recent workshop.

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Southwest US drought variability: Cold vs warm Pacific

Polar Jet Stream

Wet

L Warm

Pacific Jet Stream

Warm East Pacific: El Niño or PDO+ phase

Blocking highpressure

HCold

Polar Jet Stream

Variable/weakerPacific Jet Stream

Wet

DryWarm

Cold East Pacific: La Niña or PDO- phase

To investigate variability in precipitation with the PDO, Iris has focused on Arizona and New Mexico.

• The impact of the PDO on precipitation varies with other climate patterns: ENSO, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the PNA.

• A clear distinction of the PDO signal in rainfall data may be hindered by the changing role of the PDO over the course of the year. Precipitation during winter and the Moonsoon season depend on very different processes that are differently impacted by the PDO.

Considering these factors, she has done a drought projection for the next two decades.

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The impacts for the current negative PDO phase are projected to be 1.6 times as large as the impacts of the A1B Scenario on P-E during 2020-2040 when evaluated according to the GPCC dataset, and about equal to the impacts of the A1B Scenario when evaluated according to the CRU dataset. This means that if future impacts of the PDO on precipitation are comparable to past impacts, the effect of the current negative PDO will at least double the expected impacts of global warming until 2030. The projected precipitation impacts of the combination of a negative PDO phase with a positive AMO phase are about twice as large as the impacts of the A1B Scenario on P-E during 2020-2040 when evaluated according to the GPCC dataset, and about equal to the impacts of the A1B Scenario when evaluated according to the CRU dataset. 6

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S3: Continued support and involvement in the broader public discourse on SRM

August 2011: Second multi-university summer study program for graduate students and other young investigators held at Banff

Jan 2011

January 2011: La Jolla IGBP workshop on ecosystem impacts of geoengineering

Paper now in press at AMBIO

June 2011: Lima IPCC expert meeting on geoengineering

October 2011: BPC report on U.S. research

March 2011:SRMGI Kavli Center

Jan 2012

SRMGI

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S2: Development of strategies for how best to manage knowledge about how to perform SRM

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