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Outer Banks, NC HMP Update: Hazard ID & Risk Assessment

Meeting 3 – Outer Banks HMPCJuly 24, 2019

Outer Banks Regional Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 July 24, 2019

• Where we are in the planning process– Step 4 & Step 5– Organization in the plan

• Hazard Identification– State plan & existing Albemarle Regional plan– Major Disaster Declarations

• Asset Inventory– Building Exposure– Critical Facilities

• Hazard Profiles: Risk & Vulnerability Assessment

• Discuss Objectives & Actions• Next Steps and Questions

Agenda

2 A presentation by Wood.


– Step 1: Organize to Prepare the Plan– Step 2: Involve the Public – ongoing– Step 3: Coordinate – ongoing– Step 4: Assess the Hazard– Step 5: Assess the Problem– Step 6: Set Goals– Step 7: Review Possible Activities– Step 8: Draft an Action Plan– Step 9: Adopt the Plan– Step 10: Implement, Evaluate, & Revise the Plan

Planning Process



– Step 4: Assess the Hazard– Step 5: Assess the Problem

Risk is a combination of hazard, vulnerability, and exposure; each is assessed to determine a hazard’s

potential impact and overall priority

Hazard Identification & Risk Assessment (HIRA)


1. Identify Hazards

2. Profile Hazard Events

3. Inventory Assets

4. Estimate Losses


Data collected through this process has been incorporated into the following sections of this plan: • Section 4.2: Hazard Identification identifies the natural and human-

caused hazards that threaten the planning area.• Section 4.3: Risk Assessment Methodology and Assumptions• Section 4.4: Asset Inventory details the population, buildings, and

critical facilities at risk within the planning area.• Section 4.5: Hazard Profiles, Analysis, and Vulnerability discusses

the threat to the planning area, describes previous occurrences of hazard events and the likelihood of future occurrences, and assesses the planning area’s exposure to each hazard profiled; considering assets at risk, critical facilities, and future development trends.

• Section 4.6: Conclusions on Hazard Risk summarizes the results of the Priority Risk Index and defines each hazard as a Low, Medium, or High Risk hazard.

HIRA Organization


Hazard Identification

6

12 Total Declarations• 9 hurricane events

• 3 severe weather events (including flooding and tornadoes)

Major Disaster Declarations (Outer Banks Region)


Disaster # Dec. Date Incident Type Event Title

4393 9/14/2018 Hurricane Hurricane Florence

4285 10/10/2016 Hurricane Hurricane Matthew

4019 8/31/2011 Hurricane Hurricane Irene

1969 4/19/2011 Severe Storm(s) Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding

1608 10/7/2005 Hurricane Hurricane Ophelia

1490 9/18/2003 Hurricane Hurricane Isabel

1292 9/16/1999 Hurricane Hurricane Floyd

1291 9/9/1999 Hurricane Hurricane Dennis1240 8/27/1998 Hurricane Hurricane Bonnie

1200 1/15/1998 Severe Storm(s) Severe Storms and Flooding

1003 9/10/1993 Hurricane Hurricane Emily

881 12/2/1988 Tornado Severe Storms & Tornadoes



Review of Hazards in Existing Plans


HazardIncluded in 2018 State

HMP?

Included in 2015 Albemarle Regional

HMP?

To be included inOuter Banks Regional HMP

Update?Flooding Yes Yes YesHurricanes and Coastal Hazards Yes Yes Yes (evaluated separately)Nor’easters No Yes NoSevere Winter Weather (Freezing Rain, Snowstorms, Blizzards, Wind Chill, Extreme Cold) Yes Yes Yes

Extreme Heat Yes Yes YesEarthquake Yes Yes YesWildfire Yes Yes YesDam Failure Yes Yes NoLevee Failure No Yes NoDrought Yes Yes YesSevere Thunderstorm (Tornado, Hailstorm, Torrential Rain, Thunderstorm Wind, High Wind, Lightning)

Yes Yes (Tornadoes evaluated as a separate hazard)

Yes (Tornado evaluated as separate hazard)

Landslide Yes Yes NoSinkholes Yes Yes NoErosion Yes Yes Yes (under Coastal Hazards)Rip Currents No Yes Yes (under Coastal Hazards)Sea Level Rise No No Yes (Under Coastal Hazards)Tsunami No Yes Yes (under Earthquake)Hazardous Materials Incident Yes No YesRadiological Emergency Yes No NoTerrorism Yes Yes Yes

Infectious Disease YesYes (as Public Health Events and Pandemic

Events)No

Cyber Threat Yes Yes YesElectromagnetic Pulse Yes No NoActive Shooter/Mass Casualty No Yes Yes (with Terrorism)Transportation Infrastructure Impacts No Yes Yes


• Dam Failure: NC Dam Inventory does not list dams in either county. • Levee Failure: USACE’s National Levee Database does not identify any

USACE or non-USACE levees in either county.• Landslide: The 2015 Albemarle plan and 2018 State plan addressed this

hazard, however the regional plan found minimal risk and the State plan notes risk is concentrated in the western portion of North Carolina.

• Sinkholes: The 2015 Albemarle plan and 2018 State plan addressed this hazard, however the regional plan found minimal risk. Per the State HMP, vulnerability to sinkhole is low in the region.

• Infectious Disease: State HMP reports the entire State is equally at risk, but vulnerability is low across all but one impact category. The 2015 Albemarle plan found this to be a low priority hazard.

• Electromagnetic Pulse: The region considers this hazard more appropriately addressed at the State level.

Hazard Identification

Hazards Not Included

A presentation by Wood.9


• Coastal Hazards (Erosion, Rip Current, and Sea Level Rise)• Drought• Earthquake• Extreme Heat• Flood• Hurricane and Tropical Storm• Severe Weather (Thunderstorm/Lightning/Hail)• Severe Winter Storm• Tornado• Wildfire• Hazardous Materials Incident• Radiological Incident• Cyber Threat• Terrorism• Transportation Infrastructure Failure

Hazards Profiled


Asset Inventory

11


Asset Inventory

Population


Jurisdiction2010 Census Population

Elderly(Age 65 and Over)

Children(Age 5 and Under)

CurrituckCurrituck County (Unincorporated)

23,540 3,041 1,329

DareDare County (Unincorporated) 16,893 2,574 916Town of Duck 369 56 20Town of Kill Devil Hills 6,635 1,011 360Town of Kitty Hawk 3,270 498 177Town of Manteo 1,258 192 68Town of Nags Head 2,786 425 151Town of Southern Shores 2,695 411 146Subtotal Dare 33,906 5,167 1,838Total 57,446 8,208 3,167


Asset Inventory

Building Exposure


Jurisdiction Building Count Building Value

CurrituckCurrituck County (Unincorporated) 17,069 $2,979,468,915

DareDare County (Unincorporated) 13,634 $2,386,317,125

Town of Duck 2,400 $736,869,444

Town of Kill Devil Hills 5,972 $974,106,060

Town of Kitty Hawk 2,803 $637,910,353

Town of Manteo 918 $282,189,726

Town of Nags Head 4,827 $1,094,947,456

Town of Southern Shores 2,496 $685,384,316

Subtotal Dare 33,050 $6,797,724,480

Total 310,483 $82,605,696,519


Asset Inventory

Critical Facilities


Sector Asset Count Value

Emergency ManagementEOC 2 $292,467.00

Fire 31 $23,196,301.49

Police 10 $4,675,679.25

Government School 80 $200,691,765.00

EnergyPower Plant 5 $90,852,743.00

Substation 4 $30,000,000.00

Water Treatment Plant 51 $97,575,640.50

Agriculture and Food Distribution Hog Farm 1 $12,148.43

Total 184 $447,296,744.67


Critical Facilities, Currituck



Critical Facilities, Dare


• Note: Critical facilities maps will be provided by community in each jurisdictional annex.

Hazard Profiles

17


Hazard Profile Summary


Hazard Probability ImpactSpatial Extent

Warning Time DurationPRI

ScoreCoastal Hazards: Erosion1 Likely Limited Moderate More than 24 hrs Less than 6 hrs 2.3Coastal Hazards: Rip Current1 Highly Likely Critical Small Less than 6 hrs Less than 24 hrs 3.1Coastal Hazards: Sea Level Rise1 Likely Critical Moderate More than 24 hrs More than 1 week 2.9Drought Possible Minor Large More than 24 hrs More than 1 week 2.2Earthquake Unlikely Minor Large Less than 6 hrs Less than 6 hrs 1.9

Extreme Heat Highly Likely Limited Large More than 24 hrs Less than 1 week 3.0

Flood Likely Critical Moderate 6 to 12 hours Less than 1 week 3.0

Hurricane & Tropical Storm Likely Catastrophic Large More than 24 hrs Less than 1 week 3.3

Severe Weather: Hail2 Highly Likely Minor Small Less than 6 hrs Less than 6 hrs 2.4

Severe Weather: Lightning2 Highly Likely Minor Negligible Less than 6 hrs Less than 6 hrs 2.2Severe Weather: Thunderstorm Winds2 Highly Likely Limited Large Less than 6 hrs Less than 6 hrs 3.1

Severe Winter Storm Highly Likely Minor Large More than 24 hrs Less than 1 week 2.7

Tornado Likely Critical Negligible Less than 6 hrs Less than 6 hrs 2.5

Wildfire Possible Limited Moderate Less than 6 hrs Less than 1 week 2.5

Hazardous Materials Incident Likely Minor Negligible Less than 6 hrs Less than 24 hrs 2.0

Radiological Emergency Unlikely Limited Small Less than 6 hrs More than 1 week 2.1

Cyber Attack Possible Minor Small Less than 6 hrs More than 1 week 2.1

Terrorism Unlikely Catastrophic Small Less than 6 hrs More than 1 week 2.7Transportation Infrastructure Failure

Possible Limited Small Less than 6 hrs More than 1 week 2.4


Coastal Hazard(Erosion)


Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time DurationLikely Limited Moderate More than 24 hrs Less than 6 hrs

• Erosion can be measured as a rate of change from a previous condition

• According to NCEI, 15 events (coastal flood, storm surge, tropical storm, hurricane) caused erosion between 1999-2018

• Coastal erosion is expected to increase as a result of rising seas

• May increase sediment loads and change riverine and coastal topography

Outer Banks Regional Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 July 24, 2019 A presentation by Wood.20


Coastal Hazard(Rip Current)


Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time DurationHighly Likely Critical Small Less than 6 hrs Less than 24 hrs

• Powerful, narrow channels of seaward flowing water along the coast.

• Three major types of Rip Currents: Bathymetrically controlled, structurally controlled, and hydrodynamically controlled

• NCEI Reports 25 rip current events causing 24 deaths between 1999-2018 (23 occurred in Dare)

• NWS Rip Current Risk provided for Corolla, Duck, Kitty Hawk, Kill Devil Hills, Nags Head, Rodanthe, Avon, Buxton, and Frisco


Coastal Hazard(Sea Level Rise)


Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time DurationLikely Critical Moderate More than 24 hrs More than 1 wk

• Global Sea Level rise can be attributed to two separate mechanics: global temperature increases and melting of ice over land

• USGS’s Coastal Vulnerability Index shows coast’s susceptibility to sea level rise

• Duck, NC gauge: 4.62 mm/yr• Oregon Inlet gauge: 4.69 mm/yr

1.5 ft in 100 years




Estimated Impact of 2 Foot SLR on Outer Banks Region

Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time DurationLikely Critical Moderate More than 24 hrs More than 1 wk




Example:SLR Impacts on Manteo

• All of the Outer Banks region is susceptible

• Most severe impacts are on agricultural and recreational industries

• Can impact public water supply if groundwater levels fall

• Can cause increased risk of wildfire

Drought

25 A presentation by Wood. Outer Banks Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 Mar. 4, 2019

Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time DurationPossible Minor Large More than 24 hrs More than 1 week

Drought


• Currituck County: U.S. Drought Monitor reported the County was in some level of drought for 668 (of 992) weeks between January 1, 2000 – December 31, 2018 (67% of time); 4 weeks in “extreme drought”

• Dare County: 309 (of 992) weeks reported between 1/1/2000 – 12/31/2018 (32%); 1 week in “extreme drought”

• Droughts may become more frequent and intense in the future

Outer Banks Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 Mar. 4, 2019

Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time DurationPossible Minor Large More than 24 hrs More than 1 week

Outer Banks Region averages $57,738 in crop

losses due to drought annually

according to USDA Crop

Insurance data(primarily in

Currituck County)

• Possibility for larger impacts from Charleston Fault, Central Virginia Seismic Zone, and Pembroke Faults

• Major ground shaking unlikely

Earthquake


Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time DurationUnlikely Minor Large Less than 6 hrs Less than 6 hrs

Outer Banks Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 Mar. 4, 2019


Earthquake


Estimated Building Damages from 500-Year Earthquake Event:

Jurisdiction

All Buildings

Total Buildings at Risk

Num Num % of Total Estimated Damages

Currituck

Currituck County 17,069 5,164 30.3% $78,529

Dare

Dare County Unincorporated Areas 13,634 855 6.30% $10,319

Town of Duck 2,400 29 1.20% $357

Town of Kill Devil Hills 5,972 142 2.40% $4,744

Town of Kitty Hawk 2,803 73 2.60% $1,608

Town of Manteo 918 85 9.30% $2,162

Town of Nags Head 4,827 125 2.60% $5,370

Town of Southern Shores 2,496 18 0.70% $405

Subtotal Dare 33,050 1,327 4.02% $24,965

Total 50,119 6,491 12.95% $103,494

Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time DurationUnlikely Minor Large Less than 6 hrs Less than 6 hrs


• Region averages between 79-88 hours per year with heat index temps >100°F

• Extreme temperatures likely to increase in severity and frequency

• NCEI reports two heat events in Currituck County, no injuries, fatalities, or property damage

• Vulnerable populations include: elderly, young children, isolated individuals

Extreme Heat


Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time DurationHighly Likely Limited Large More than 24 hrs Less than 1 week

Extreme heat can cause heat stroke and even loss of life.


• Flooding types: Coastal and Localized• Coastal Flooding: Storm Surge (Hurricane/Nor’easter

Winds); High Tides; Tidal Waves

Flood


Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time DurationLikely Critical Moderate 6 to 12 hours Less than 1 week

Structures located in a Special Flood Hazard Area Have a 26% Chance of Flooding During

the Life of a 30-Year Mortgage


Flood - Currituck


Flood Zone Acreage Percent ofTotal (%)

Zone A 4,294.32 1.51

Zone AE 123,599.50 43.44

Zone VE 70,531.84 24.79

Zone X (500-year)

15,108.54 5.31

Zone X (unshaded)

51,271.99 18.02

Open Water 19,716.44 6.93

SFHA Total 198,425.66 69.7


Flood - Dare


Flood Zone Acreage Percent ofTotal (%)

Zone A 25.20 0.00

Zone AE 268,267.60 34.13

Zone VE 126,595.90 16.11

Zone X (500-year)

20,904.54 2.66

Zone X (unshaded)

21,814.31 2.78

Open Water 348,447.40 44.33

SFHA Total 394,888.70 50.2


Flood

Historical Occurrences from NCEI


Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time DurationLikely Critical Moderate 6 to 12 hours Less than 1 week

TypeEvent Count

Deaths InjuriesProperty Damage

Crop Damage

CurrituckCoastal Flood 7 0 0 $5,935,000 $0Flash Flood 3 0 0 $0 $0Flood 8 0 0 $500,000 $0Heavy Rain 17 0 0 $0 $0

DareCoastal Flood 19 0 0 $12,900,000 $0Flash Flood 11 0 0 $0 $0Flood 5 0 0 $0 $0Heavy Rain 1 0 0 $0 $0

Total 71 0 0 $19,335,000 $0


Building loss estimate from 100-year flood: $234.7 Million

Flood


Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time DurationPossible Critical Small 6 to 12 hours Less than 1 week

JurisdictionAll Buildings Total Buildings at Risk

Num Num % of Total Estimated DamagesCurrituckUnincorporatedCurrituck

17,069 3,660 21.40% $49,731,852

DareUnincorporatedDare

13,634 6,132 45% $91,794,409

Duck 2,400 250 10.40% $9,291,300 Kill Devil Hills 5,972 1,514 25.40% $17,771,216 Kitty Hawk 2,803 911 32.50% $14,279,824 Manteo 918 598 65.10% $18,946,454 Nags Head 4,827 1,345 27.90% $29,229,159 SouthernShores

2,496 454 18.20% $3,625,897

Subtotal Dare 33,050 11,204 33.90% $184,938,259 Region Total 50,119 14,864 29.66% $234,670,111


Hurricane


Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time DurationLikely Catastrophic Large More than 24 hrs Less than 1 week


Hurricane


Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time DurationLikely Catastrophic Large More than 24 hrs Less than 24 hrs

• 96 hurricanes and tropical storms have passed within 50 miles of the Outer Banks since 1900, including a Category 4 storm and a Category 3 storm

• NCEI records 19 hurricanes and tropical storms causing $390,157,00 in property damages and $19,850,000 in crop damages due to hurricane wind between 1999-2018


Hurricane



Date Deaths/Injuries Property Damage3/6/2001 0/0 $0 4/10/2003 0/0 $0 3/10/2004 0/0 $10,000 4/3/2005 0/0 $0 4/15/2005 0/0 $50,000 5/6/2005 0/0 $0 9/9/2007 0/0 $0 7/20/2008 0/0 $0 10/19/2008 0/0 $10,000 9/2/2010 0/0 $380,000 8/26/2011 0/0 $1,000,000 8/26/2011 0/0 $40,000,000 10/28/2012 0/0 $13,000,000 6/6/2013 0/0 $0 7/3/2014 0/0 $1,500,000

Total 0/0 $55,950,000

Storm Surge Historical Occurrences (1999-2018)

*Note: this map does not accurately represent storm surge risk from sound side flooding


Building loss estimate from 50-Yr Hurricane Winds: $488m

Hurricane





17,069 16,621 97.4% $97,781,954


13,634 13,248 97.2% $136,288,672

Duck 2,400 2,162 90.1% $29,320,693Kill Devil Hills 5,972 5,707 95.6% $52,199,323Kitty Hawk 2,803 2,691 96% $15,013,853Manteo 918 917 99.9% $29,344,801Nags Head 4,827 4,591 95.1% $112,155,307SouthernShores

2,496 2,477 99.2% $15,981,527

Subtotal Dare 33,050 31,793 96.2% $390,304,176 Region Total 50,119 48,414 96.6% $488,086,130


Severe Weather (Thunderstorm Wind)


Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time DurationHighly Likely Limited Large Less than 6 hours Less than 6 hours

• Thunderstorm Wind – Winds, arising from convection (occurring within 30 minutes of lightning being observed or detected), with speeds of at least 58 mph, or winds of any speed (non-severe thunderstorm winds below 58 mph) producing a fatality, injury or damage.

• NCEI records 153 separate incidents of thunderstorm winds, causing 8 injuries and $1,225,000 in damages from thunderstorm winds


Severe Weather (Thunderstorm Wind)


Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time DurationHighly Likely Limited Large Less than 6 hours Less than 6 hours

Building loss estimate from 50-Yr Thunderstorm Winds: $292m



17,069 16,621 97.40% $110,222,060


13,634 13,248 97.20% $48,120,968

Duck 2,400 2,162 90.10% $29,320,693 Kill Devil Hills 5,972 5,707 95.60% $24,420,400 Kitty Hawk 2,803 2,691 96% $15,013,853 Manteo 918 917 99.90% $9,999,694 Nags Head 4,827 4,591 95.10% $39,091,878 SouthernShores

2,496 2,477 99.20% $15,981,527

Subtotal Dare 33,050 31,793 96.20% $181,949,013Region Total 50,119 48,414 96.60% $292,171,073


Severe Weather (Lightning)


Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time DurationHighly Likely Minor Negligible Less than 6 hours Less than 6 hours

• NCEI records 12 lightning incidents causing 3 fatalities, 6 injuries, and $84,000 in property damages

• Most damages recorded were due to structure fires

• NCEI only records lightning events with reported injuries or damages

Average Lightning Frequency per sq. mi.

Outer Banks Regional Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 July 24, 2019 A presentation by Wood.

• Average hailstone size in the Outer Banks Region is just under 1” in diameter

• Largest stone was 1.75” diameter, recorded on four separate occasions.

Severe Weather (Hail)

42

Location Number of Occurrences

Average Hail Diameter

Currituck 18 0.995”Dare 40 0.8755”

Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time DurationHighly Likely Minor Small Less than 6 hours Less than 6 hours

Average Diameter Corresponding Household Object.25 inch Pea.5 inch Marble/Mothball.75 inch Dime/Penny.875 inch Nickel1.0 inch Quarter1.5 inch Ping-pong ball1.75 inch Golf ball2.0 inch Hen egg2.5 inch Tennis ball2.75 inch Baseball3.00 inch Teacup4.00 inch Grapefruit4.5 inch Softball

Historic Hail Occurrences

Hailstone Measurement Comparison Chart


Major risks include:• icy roadways• cost of snow and debris

removal• power outages• indirect losses such as

lost productivity

Severe Winter Storm


Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time DurationHighly Likely Minor Large More than 24 hrs Less than 1 wk

Event Type Number of Recorded Incidents

Total Property Damage

CurrituckWinter Storm 15 $0Winter Weather 11 $0

Frost/Freeze 3 $0Blizzard 1 $0DareWinter Storm 9 $0Winter Weather 4 $0

Frost/Freeze 1 $0Heavy Snow 4 $0Total 48 $0

Disaster Number Date Disaster Type Incident Start Incident End

3110 1993 Severe Snow and Winter Storm 3/13/1993 3/17/1993

Past Occurrences, 1999-2018

Disaster Declarations for Winter Storm Events


• According to NCEI, the Outer Banks has had 16 tornados since 1999:– 5 injures– $1.34m in

property damage

Tornado


Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time DurationLikely Critical Negligible Less than 6 hrs Less than 6 hrs


Tornado



• NC Forest Service Reports 559 fires burning 1,094.76 acres from 2009-2018– Dare: 226 fires, 731 acres burned– Currituck: 333 fires, 364 acres burned

• Above count does not include fires managed by local departments; actual fire count and acreage burned is likely higher

Wildfire


Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time DurationPossible Limited Moderate Less than 6 hrs Less than 1 week

Housing Density WUI PopulationPercent of WUI Population WUI Acres

Percent of WUI Acres

LT 1hs/40ac 208 0.4 % 14,150 16.1 %

1hs/40ac to 1hs/20ac 310 0.6 % 8,519 9.7 %

1hs/20ac to 1hs/10ac 968 1.9 % 12,731 14.5 %

1hs/10ac to 1hs/5ac 2,016 3.9 % 12,669 14.4 %

1hs/5ac to 1hs/2ac 6,848 13.4 % 17,274 19.6 %

1hs/2ac to 3hs/1ac 29,030 56.8 % 20,332 23.1 %

GT 3hs/1ac 11,756 23.0 % 2,373 2.7 %

Total 51,136 100.0 % 88,048 100.0 %

Wildland Urban Interface


Wildfire


Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time DurationPossible Limited Moderate Less than 6 hrs Less than 1 week


• Four sites in the planning area identified by EPA’s Toxic Release Inventory

• First responders are most likely to be exposed

• People in close proximity to facilities and transportation routes face higher risk

• EPA Right to Know Network reports 619 hazardous material releases from 1989 – 2018 (Dare: 518; Currituck: 101)

Hazardous Materials


Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time DurationLikely Minor Negligible Less than 6 hours Less than 24 hrs


• Northern Currituck County falls within the IPZ from the Surry Power Station near Newport News, VA

• First responders may face heightened exposure

• An incident at the power station could contaminate fresh produce, water supplies, and other food products within the IPZ.

Radiological Incident


Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time DurationUnlikely Limited Small Less than 6 hours More than 1 week

The 2011 Earthquake in Central Virginia caused the operators of the Surry Power Plant (Dominion Energy) to issue a Notification of

Unusual Event which was exited later the same day.


• Cyber crime can refer to many types of cyber attacks: DDoS, Malware, Espionage, Major Data Breaches, etc.; most severe is cyber terrorism

• Can occur anywhere in the planning region • 6 data breaches in North Carolina between 2005-2019 –

none specifically targeted at the Outer Banks region

Cyber Attack


Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time DurationPossible Minor Small Less than 6 hrs More than 1 wk


• None of the hate groups active in North Carolina identified by the SPLC have a footprint in the Outer Banks; groups with a statewide footprint may have a presence

• Critical facilities and key infrastructure; cultural, historical, and symbolic locations; and highly populated events are more likely to be targeted

• First responders face heightened risk

Terrorism


Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time DurationUnlikely Catastrophic Negligible Less than 6 hrs Less than 6 hrs


• Region depends on several key bridges, roads, and ferry crossings for access and services – integral for the functioning of the planning area

• Loss of major highway or key bridge could cause significant disruption

• 1990 – Portion of Herbert Bonner Bridge Collapsed; left approximately 5,000 Hatteras residents along with tourists stranded

Failure


Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time DurationPossible Limited Small Less than 6 hrs More than 1 wk

Transportation Infrastructure


RISK ASSESSMENT CATEGORY

LEVEL DEGREE OF RISK CRITERIA INDEX WEIGHT

PROBABILITYWhat is the likelihood of a hazard event occurring in a

given year?

UNLIKELY LESS THAN 1% ANNUAL PROBABILITY 1

30%POSSIBLE BETWEEN 1 & 10% ANNUAL PROBABILITY 2

LIKELY BETWEEN 10 &100% ANNUAL PROBABILITY 3HIGHLY LIKELY 100% ANNUAL PROBABILTY 4

IMPACTIn terms of injuries, damage,

or death, would you anticipateimpacts to be minor, limited,

critical, or catastrophic when a significant hazard event

occurs?

MINORVERY FEW INJURIES, IF ANY. ONLY MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE & MINIMAL DISRUPTION ON QUALITY OF LIFE. TEMPORARY SHUTDOWN OF CRITICAL

FACILITIES.1

30%

LIMITEDMINOR INJURIES ONLY. MORE THAN 10% OF PROPERTY IN AFFECTED AREA DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. COMPLETE SHUTDOWN OF CRITICAL FACILITIES

FOR > 1 DAY2

CRITICALMULTIPLE DEATHS/INJURIES POSSIBLE.

MORE THAN 25% OF PROPERTY IN AFFECTED AREA DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. COMPLETE SHUTDOWN OF CRITICAL FACILITIES FOR > 1 WEEK.

3

CATASTROPHICHIGH NUMBER OF DEATHS/INJURIES POSSIBLE. MORE THAN 50% OF PROPERTY IN AFFECTED AREA DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. COMPLETE

SHUTDOWN OF CRITICAL FACILITIES > 30 DAYS.4

SPATIAL EXTENTHow large of an area could beimpacted by a hazard event?

Are impacts localized orregional?

NEGLIGIBLE LESS THAN 1% OF AREA AFFECTED 1

20%SMALL BETWEEN 1 & 10% OF AREA AFFECTED 2

MODERATE BETWEEN 10 & 50% OF AREA AFFECTED 3LARGE BETWEEN 50 & 100% OF AREA AFFECTED 4

WARNING TIMEIs there usually some lead time

associated with the hazardevent? Have warning

measures been implemented?

MORE THAN 24 HRS SELF DEFINED 1

10%12 TO 24 HRS SELF DEFINED 2

6 TO 12 HRS SELF DEFINED 3

LESS THAN 6 HRS SELF DEFINED 4

DURATIONHow long does the hazard

event usually last?

LESS THAN 6 HRS SELF DEFINED 1

10%LESS THAN 24 HRS SELF DEFINED 2

LESS THAN 1 WEEK SELF DEFINED 3

MORE THAN 1 WEEK SELF DEFINED 4

Priority Risk Index (PRI)



PRI Results


Hazard Probability ImpactSpatial Extent

Warning Time DurationPRI

ScoreCoastal Hazards: Erosion1 Likely Limited Moderate More than 24 hrs Less than 6 hrs 2.3Coastal Hazards: Rip Current1 Highly Likely Critical Small Less than 6 hrs Less than 24 hrs 3.1Coastal Hazards: Sea Level Rise1 Likely Critical Moderate More than 24 hrs More than 1 week 2.9Drought Possible Minor Large More than 24 hrs More than 1 week 2.2Earthquake Unlikely Minor Large Less than 6 hrs Less than 6 hrs 1.9

Extreme Heat Highly Likely Limited Large More than 24 hrs Less than 1 week 3.0

Flood Likely Critical Moderate 6 to 12 hours Less than 1 week 3.0

Hurricane & Tropical Storm Likely Catastrophic Large More than 24 hrs Less than 1 week 3.3

Severe Weather: Hail2 Highly Likely Minor Small Less than 6 hrs Less than 6 hrs 2.4

Severe Weather: Lightning2 Highly Likely Minor Negligible Less than 6 hrs Less than 6 hrs 2.2Severe Weather: Thunderstorm Winds2 Highly Likely Limited Large Less than 6 hrs Less than 6 hrs 3.1

Severe Winter Storm Highly Likely Minor Large More than 24 hrs Less than 1 week 2.7

Tornado Likely Critical Negligible Less than 6 hrs Less than 6 hrs 2.5

Wildfire Possible Limited Moderate Less than 6 hrs Less than 1 week 2.5

Hazardous Materials Incident Likely Minor Negligible Less than 6 hrs Less than 24 hrs 2.0

Radiological Emergency Unlikely Limited Small Less than 6 hrs More than 1 week 2.1

Cyber Attack Possible Minor Small Less than 6 hrs More than 1 week 2.1

Terrorism Unlikely Catastrophic Small Less than 6 hrs More than 1 week 2.7Transportation Infrastructure Failure

Possible Limited Small Less than 6 hrs More than 1 week 2.4


PRI Results


High Risk(> 2.4)

Hurricane & Tropical Storm

Extreme HeatFlood

Coastal Hazards

Severe Winter StormTerrorism

Severe WeatherTornadoWildfire

Moderate Risk(2.0 – 2.4)

Transportation Infrastructure FailureDrought

Radiological EmergencyCyber Attack

Hazardous Materials Incident

Low Risk(< 2.0)

Earthquake


Public SurveyResults


Hurricane, Flood, Severe Weather, and

Erosion are most significant to the public

Earthquake, Drought, Hazardous Materials Incident, and Wildfire are least significant

853 responses


• Planning Process– List of HMPC members

• Community Profile– Geography, population & demographics, asset

inventory, housing, economy• Risk Assessment

– Jurisdiction-specific maps, tables, and other data• Capability Assessment

– Self assessment results, floodplain management data• Mitigation Strategy

Annex Summary



• Goal 1: Reduce the risk of loss of life and personal injury from hazards.

• Goal 2: Maintain critical facilities and infrastructure and protect them from damage.

• Goal 3: Ensure that hazard mitigation practices, construction techniques, policies, and ordinances are integrated for both new development and post-disaster development to enhance resiliency and enable speedy recovery.

• Goal 4: Improve inter-jurisdictional cooperation and coordination, especially regarding the reduction of hazard impacts.

Goals



• Objective 1-1: Educate citizens to encourage individual responsibility to protect themselves and their families from hazards.

• Objective 1-2: Reduce the risk and impact of future hazards by mitigating risk of development in both known hazard areas and areas expected to face future hazard risk.

• Objective 2-1: Retrofit or otherwise protect critical facilities and infrastructure.

• Objective 2-2: Increase redundancy of critical systems and services.• Objective 3-1: Adopt protective development standards and establish

post-disaster redevelopment policies. • Objective 3-2: Preserve and protect natural and beneficial floodplain

functions and key natural resources. • Objective 3-3: Explore, develop, and implement new pre-disaster

opportunities that build community resilience.• Objective 4-1: Coordinate development standards across jurisdictions. • Objective 4-2: Encourage and enable inter-jurisdictional communication.

Objectives



• Must have two actions for every high and moderate priority hazard– All hazards actions count as

one project for each hazard– Emergency Services actions do

not count toward this requirement

• Must have at least one Structural Project

• Must have actions in 5 of the 6 FEMA mitigation categories

Mitigation Action Plan Requirements


FEMA Mitigation Categories:- Prevention- Property Protection- Natural Resource

Protection- Structural Projects- Emergency Services- Public Education &

Awareness


Mitigation Action Plan Requirements

Example: State Review of Wake County Mitigation Action Plan



• Develop New Mitigation Actions• Review Draft Plan

Submit comments on the draft HIRA by: Friday, August 9th

Submit new mitigation actions by: Friday, August 23rd

We will select final meeting dates in the coming weeks

Next Steps


Questions or Comments?

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