MDL’s ExtratropicalStorm Surge
An Introduction
Anne KramerScientific ProgrammerNOAA/NWS/OST/MDL & TCA
ETSS background• ETSS model is based on
SLOSH, but modified to use GFS winds on 1° grid
• Runs 4x daily in NCEP operations
• Basins updated at MDL’s discretion; updates:– Alaska, Bering Sea: 1996– Alaska, Arctic: 1998– Gulf of Alaska: 2008– East Coast: 1999, 2008– Gulf of Mexico: 1999, 2011– West Coast: 1998, 2011
ETSS background• Resolution varies
– Gulf of Mexico ~ 4km– East Coast ~ 9.4km– Alaska ~ 6.7km– West Coast ~ 6.5km
• Each run has a 2 day initialization and a 4 day forecast period, for a total of 6 days
• Results posted to the web – http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/ (text
& hydrographs)– http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/SL.us008001/
ST.expr/DF.gr2/DC.ndgd/GT.slosh/ (gridded data)
– http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/SURGE_GOM_EAST/SURGE_GOM_EAST_96_HR.shtml (gridded)
ETSS results for 3/4/2011
MDL’s website displaying total water level station status map, based on ETSS output
OPC’s website displayinggridded ETSS results
Forecast Total Water Level for Hurricane Ike, Based on ETSS
Forecast Total Water Level for Hurricane Ike, Based on ETSS
OPC’s website displayinggridded ETSS results for 3/4/11
Station total water level plot showing forecast for Ike storm surge event at Galveston, TX
MDL’s Participation in SURA Inundation Testbed Effort
• Completed– Uploaded to SURA server:
• archived forecast graphs and text files for north East Coast stations for the 3 periods of interest
• Projected– Reproduce gridded forecasts using archived
GFS wind data– Potentially create gridded hindcasts using
reanalysis GDAS winds
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