Mattias Höjer, Warsaw, November 5 2014 1
Images of the Future City
Smart Cities. Energy efficiency in Sustainable Urban DevelopmentSwedish-Polish Sustainable Energy Platform
Nov 5 2014
Mattias Höjer, [email protected]
Professor Environmental stragtegies and Futures studies
Director Centre for Sustainable Communications
KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm
Mattias Höjer, Warsaw November 5 2014
What could a future Stockholm, with a sustainable energy use, look like?
Images of the future describing
Stockholm 2050
with an energy use 60 % lower per capita than 2000 (~50 higher than latin-America 2004)
from a household perspective
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Mattias Höjer, Warsaw November 5 2014
Creating a starting point
Defining Household functions
Choosing building blocks
Choosing dimensions
Statistics Sweden
Data for energy use with consumtion perspective at a detailed level
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Mattias Höjer, Warsaw November 5 2014
Creating a basis for images of the future
For a number of ”building blocks”:
Historical development
Current situation
Trends
Potential in relation to target (energy reduction) and two dimensions
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Mattias Höjer, Warsaw November 5 2014
Household functions
Private – leisure activities
Housing – a place to live
Food – everything related to eating
Care – taking care of children, elderly, sick
Common – authorities, higher education, military
Support – earning your living
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Mattias Höjer, Warsaw November 5 2014
Energy use 2000 for inhabitants in Stockholm, %
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
PersonalResidence Food Care CommonSupport
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Mattias Höjer, Warsaw November 5 2014
Generating (target-fulfilling) scenarios
Building blocks
Household functions
Energy constraints
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Mattias Höjer, Warsaw November 5 2014
Space/Urban form
Suburban centres Urban cores Low-rise settlements
700 000 new inhabitants of Stockholm “drip” into the images of the future (increase by 40 % year 2000-2050) 8
Mattias Höjer, Warsaw November 5 2014
Time/Tempo
Fast Slow
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Mattias Höjer, Warsaw November 5 2014
Six images of the future:Space
Urban form
TimeLife style
Suburbannodes
Urbancores
Low-rise Settlements
Slow
Fast10
Mattias Höjer, Warsaw November 5 2014
Energy use in six images of the future
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Mattias Höjer, Warsaw November 5 2014
Technology fo
r reduce
d energy u
se
Smalle
r living are
a
E
atin
g le
ss m
eat
R
educ
ed c
omm
utin
g
L
ess
air tr
avel
Mattias Höjer, Warsaw November 5 2014
Backcasting
Höjer & Mattsson, 2000
1. Definition of target 3. Images of the future2. Target analysis 4. Analysis of images of the
future
images of the future
Target fulfilment ?
Timetoday
forecastsno
yes
in future
1
2
3
2
4
4 4
4
4
2
3
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Mattias Höjer, Warsaw November 5 2014
Some final notes on backcasting:
Useful when current trends not in line with important targets
Quantitative illustrations plus qualitative analysis
Challenges the trust in forecastsmental barriers for what is possible to changethe idea of consistency in scenarios
Highlights goal-conflicts and conflicts of interests
Eye-opener when it comes to see the need and opportunity for change
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Mattias Höjer, Warsaw, November 5 2014 15
Strategic Innovation Agenda for Smart Sustainable Cities
• KTH:• Energy Platform• ICT Platform• KTH-S• CESC - Centre for Sustainable
Communications
• ACCESS-Centre• Centre for Sustainable Built Environment• Electromagnetic Engineering• Energy Technology• Environmental Strategies Research• ECO2 Vehicle Design• Industrial Ecology• Industrial Information and Control
Systems• Land and Water Resources Engineering• Media Technology and Interaction Design
ABB ElectroluxEricsson Fortum HP IBM Intel NCCSiemens Sweco TeliaSoneraVasakronan
City of MalmöCity of Gothenburg
Skåne Regional CouncilCity of Stockholm
ITU – SSC (FN) Swedish National Grid
Swedish Transport Adm
ChalmersKTH Royal Institute of Technology
Lund University
SPSwedish ICT
Partners may be added
HS2020Swedish Union of Tenants
Mattias Höjer, Warsaw, November 5 2014 16
What is Smart Sustainable Cities?
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