Mattias Höjer, Warsaw, November 5 2014 1 Images of the Future City Smart Cities. Energy efficiency...

Mattias Höjer, Warsaw, November 5 2014 1

Images of the Future City

Smart Cities. Energy efficiency in Sustainable Urban DevelopmentSwedish-Polish Sustainable Energy Platform

Nov 5 2014

Mattias Höjer, [email protected]

Professor Environmental stragtegies and Futures studies

Director Centre for Sustainable Communications

KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm

Mattias Höjer, Warsaw November 5 2014

What could a future Stockholm, with a sustainable energy use, look like?

Images of the future describing

Stockholm 2050

with an energy use 60 % lower per capita than 2000 (~50 higher than latin-America 2004)

from a household perspective

2


Creating a starting point

Defining Household functions

Choosing building blocks

Choosing dimensions

Statistics Sweden

Data for energy use with consumtion perspective at a detailed level

3


Creating a basis for images of the future

For a number of ”building blocks”:

Historical development

Current situation

Trends

Potential in relation to target (energy reduction) and two dimensions

4


Household functions

Private – leisure activities

Housing – a place to live

Food – everything related to eating

Care – taking care of children, elderly, sick

Common – authorities, higher education, military

Support – earning your living

5


Energy use 2000 for inhabitants in Stockholm, %

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

PersonalResidence Food Care CommonSupport

6


Generating (target-fulfilling) scenarios

Building blocks

Household functions

Energy constraints

7


Space/Urban form

Suburban centres Urban cores Low-rise settlements

700 000 new inhabitants of Stockholm “drip” into the images of the future (increase by 40 % year 2000-2050) 8


Time/Tempo

Fast Slow

9


Six images of the future:Space

Urban form

TimeLife style

Suburbannodes

Urbancores

Low-rise Settlements

Slow

Fast10


Energy use in six images of the future

11


Technology fo

r reduce

d energy u

se

Smalle

r living are

a

E

atin

g le

ss m

eat

R

educ

ed c

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ess

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Backcasting

Höjer & Mattsson, 2000

1. Definition of target 3. Images of the future2. Target analysis 4. Analysis of images of the

future

images of the future

Target fulfilment ?

Timetoday

forecastsno

yes

in future

1

2

3

2

4

4 4

4

4

2

3

13


Some final notes on backcasting:

Useful when current trends not in line with important targets

Quantitative illustrations plus qualitative analysis

Challenges the trust in forecastsmental barriers for what is possible to changethe idea of consistency in scenarios

Highlights goal-conflicts and conflicts of interests

Eye-opener when it comes to see the need and opportunity for change

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Strategic Innovation Agenda for Smart Sustainable Cities

• KTH:• Energy Platform• ICT Platform• KTH-S• CESC - Centre for Sustainable

Communications

• ACCESS-Centre• Centre for Sustainable Built Environment• Electromagnetic Engineering• Energy Technology• Environmental Strategies Research• ECO2 Vehicle Design• Industrial Ecology• Industrial Information and Control

Systems• Land and Water Resources Engineering• Media Technology and Interaction Design

ABB ElectroluxEricsson Fortum HP IBM Intel NCCSiemens Sweco TeliaSoneraVasakronan

City of MalmöCity of Gothenburg

Skåne Regional CouncilCity of Stockholm

ITU – SSC (FN) Swedish National Grid

Swedish Transport Adm

ChalmersKTH Royal Institute of Technology

Lund University

SPSwedish ICT

Partners may be added

HS2020Swedish Union of Tenants


What is Smart Sustainable Cities?

Mattias Höjer, Warsaw, November 5 2014 1 Images of the Future City Smart Cities. Energy efficiency...

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