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Enhancing Public Policy Decision Making using Large-scale
Cell Phone Data
Vanessa Frias-MartinezTelefonica Research
Madrid, Spain
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Cell Phones as Sensors
May 19, 2011, 7:06 pm The Sensors Are Coming!By NICK BILTON
Telecom / WirelessNEWSCellphones for ScienceScientists want to put sensors into everyone's hands
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Cell Phone Data: Calling Records
Calling Records are saved by Telco Companies
Calling Records can be anonymized
Calling Records are saved for all feature and
smartphones (emerging economies)
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Can cell phone data be used to extract specific human
behaviors that might be useful from a policy perspective?
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CDRs
Call Detail Records
BEHAVIORAL VARIABLES
ConsumptionSocial
Mobility
Urban Planning
Tools
Crisis Management
Tools
Global Health Tools
TELEFONICA RESEARCH INSTITUTIONS & POLICY MAKERS
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Cell Phone Data
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Modeling Behaviors
Consumption• Number calls , duration, SMS/MMS/voice• Expenses• Handset Type and Features
Social• Degree of the social network • Weight of the contacts, frequency of communication
Mobility• Diameter of mobility and social network• Radius of gyration• Mobility Patterns
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Computing Cost-Effective Census Maps From Cell Phone Data
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Motivation: Census Maps
A/BC+CDE
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Motivation: Census Maps
A/BC+CDE
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Motivation: Census Maps
A/BC+CDE
Expensive
Specially for Emerging
Economies (every 10 years)
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Cell Phone Data as a proxy of SEL
Consumption
Social
Mobility
SEL PREDICTIVE MODELS
• Higher SELs are correlated to larger areas of mobility• Lower SELs are correlated to smaller social network degrees
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CenCell Tool For Policy Makers
Accuracies up to 80%
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Saving Budget
National Statistical Institutes carry out
surveys
Telcos build models to predict
SELs from Cell Phone Usage
Predict the PresentDetermine SELs for
non-surveyed regions
SAVE BUDGET
National Statistical Institutes carry out
surveys on a subset of regions
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Understanding the Impact of Health Alerts using Cell Phone Data
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H1N1 Mexico Timeline
Preflu
Alert17th April
Closed27th April
Shutdown1st May
Reopen6th May
Measure the impact that government alerts had on the population
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Epidemic Disease Model
Susceptible Exposed Infectious Recovered
Contact Rate
Transition Rate
Recovery Rate
All members within each compartment are assumed to be equal
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Agent-Based Model
Mobility Model
Social Network Model
Disease Model
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Discrete Event Simulator
Mobility ModelSocial Network
Model Disease Model
t₀ t₁ t₂ t₃ … t₉ (1 hour)
M1M2
M3S1
S2S3
D1D2
D3
Using Calling Records from 1st Jan. till 31st.May 2009
Measure the impact that government alerts had on the population’s mobility and on the disease’s spread
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Impact On Population’s Mobility
April 27th May 1st May 6th
Alert Closed Shutdown Reopen
Intervention
Mobility reduced between 10% and 30%
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Impact on Disease Propagation
Baseline (“preflu” behavior all weeks)Intervention (alert,closed,shutdown)
Epidemic peak postponed 40 hours
Reduced number of infected in peak agents by 10%
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CDRs
Call Detail Records
BEHAVIORAL VARIABLES
ConsumptionSocial
Mobility
Urban Planning
Tools
Crisis Management
Tools
Global Health Tools
TELEFONICA RESEARCH INSTITUTIONS & POLICY MAKERS
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Scientific Publications• Vanessa Frias-Martinez, Alberto Rubio and Enrique Frias-Martinez, "Measuring the
Impact of Epidemic Alerts on Human Mobility using Cell-Phone Network Data", Second Workshop on Pervasive Urban Applications @Pervasive 2012, Newcastle, UK
• Vanessa Frias-Martinez, Victor Soto, Jesus Virseda and Enrique Frias-Martinez, "Computing Cost-Effective Census Maps From Cell Phone Traces", Second Workshop on Pervasive Urban Applications @ Pervasive 2012, Newcastle, UK.
• Vanessa Frias-Martinez and Jesus Virseda and Enrique Frías-Martínez, "SocioEconomic Status and Physical Mobility",Journal of Information Technology for Development (ITD), Special Edition on "ICT and Human Mobility: Cases From Developing Countries and Beyond", February Issue, pages 1-16, 2012
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Scientific Publications• Vanessa Frias-Martinez and Jesus Virseda,"On The Relationship Between Socio-
Economic actors and Cell Phone Usage", 3rd International Conference on Information & Communication Technologies and Development, ICTD 2012, Atlanta, USA.
• Enrique Frias-Martinez, Graham Williamson and Vanessa Frias-Martinez, "An Agent-Based Model Of Epidemic Spread Using Human Mobility and Social Network Information", 3rd International Conference on Social Computing (SocialCom'11), Boston, USA, 2011
• Victor Soto and Vanessa Frias-Martinez and Jesus Virseda and Enrique Frias-Martinez, "Prediction of Socioeconomic Levels using Cell Phone Records", International Conference on User Modeling, Adaptation and Personalization (UMAP), Industrial Track, Girona, Spain, 2011.
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