MARTINEZ - Enhancing Public Policy Decision Making using Large-scale Cell Phone Data / Vanessa...
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Enhancing Public Policy Decision Making using Large-scale Cell Phone Data Vanessa Frias-Martinez Telefonica Research Madrid, Spain 1
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VANESSA FRIAS MARTINEZ - a Scientific Researcher in the Data Mining and User Modeling Group at Telefonica Research in Madrid, Spain – focuses on technologies for emerging markets. She took participants through her work to determine specific human behaviors from cell phone data to evaluate the effectiveness of policy decisions. In order to measure the impact of the Mexican government’s H1N1 response in 2009, Vanessa analyzed call records to determine changes in people’s mobility patterns in Mexico City. The results indicated that the government’s policy to issue warnings to stay away from public spaces was in fact heeded by the citizens and thus effective in limiting exposure to the virus. Vanessa’s presentation also introduced cell phone data as cost-effective method to conduct demographic research in emerging economies. Paper: "Measuring the Impact of Epidemic Alerts on Human Mobility using Cell-Phone Network Data"
Transcript of MARTINEZ - Enhancing Public Policy Decision Making using Large-scale Cell Phone Data / Vanessa...
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Enhancing Public Policy Decision Making using Large-scale
Cell Phone Data
Vanessa Frias-MartinezTelefonica Research
Madrid, Spain
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Cell Phones as Sensors
May 19, 2011, 7:06 pm The Sensors Are Coming!By NICK BILTON
Telecom / WirelessNEWSCellphones for ScienceScientists want to put sensors into everyone's hands
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Cell Phone Data: Calling Records
Calling Records are saved by Telco Companies
Calling Records can be anonymized
Calling Records are saved for all feature and
smartphones (emerging economies)
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Can cell phone data be used to extract specific human
behaviors that might be useful from a policy perspective?
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CDRs
Call Detail Records
BEHAVIORAL VARIABLES
ConsumptionSocial
Mobility
Urban Planning
Tools
Crisis Management
Tools
Global Health Tools
TELEFONICA RESEARCH INSTITUTIONS & POLICY MAKERS
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Cell Phone Data
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Modeling Behaviors
Consumption• Number calls , duration, SMS/MMS/voice• Expenses• Handset Type and Features
Social• Degree of the social network • Weight of the contacts, frequency of communication
Mobility• Diameter of mobility and social network• Radius of gyration• Mobility Patterns
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Computing Cost-Effective Census Maps From Cell Phone Data
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Motivation: Census Maps
A/BC+CDE
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Motivation: Census Maps
A/BC+CDE
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Motivation: Census Maps
A/BC+CDE
Expensive
Specially for Emerging
Economies (every 10 years)
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Cell Phone Data as a proxy of SEL
Consumption
Social
Mobility
SEL PREDICTIVE MODELS
• Higher SELs are correlated to larger areas of mobility• Lower SELs are correlated to smaller social network degrees
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CenCell Tool For Policy Makers
Accuracies up to 80%
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Saving Budget
National Statistical Institutes carry out
surveys
Telcos build models to predict
SELs from Cell Phone Usage
Predict the PresentDetermine SELs for
non-surveyed regions
SAVE BUDGET
National Statistical Institutes carry out
surveys on a subset of regions
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Understanding the Impact of Health Alerts using Cell Phone Data
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H1N1 Mexico Timeline
Preflu
Alert17th April
Closed27th April
Shutdown1st May
Reopen6th May
Measure the impact that government alerts had on the population
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Epidemic Disease Model
Susceptible Exposed Infectious Recovered
Contact Rate
Transition Rate
Recovery Rate
All members within each compartment are assumed to be equal
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Agent-Based Model
Mobility Model
Social Network Model
Disease Model
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Discrete Event Simulator
Mobility ModelSocial Network
Model Disease Model
t₀ t₁ t₂ t₃ … t₉ (1 hour)
M1M2
M3S1
S2S3
D1D2
D3
Using Calling Records from 1st Jan. till 31st.May 2009
Measure the impact that government alerts had on the population’s mobility and on the disease’s spread
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Impact On Population’s Mobility
April 27th May 1st May 6th
Alert Closed Shutdown Reopen
Intervention
Mobility reduced between 10% and 30%
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Impact on Disease Propagation
Baseline (“preflu” behavior all weeks)Intervention (alert,closed,shutdown)
Epidemic peak postponed 40 hours
Reduced number of infected in peak agents by 10%
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CDRs
Call Detail Records
BEHAVIORAL VARIABLES
ConsumptionSocial
Mobility
Urban Planning
Tools
Crisis Management
Tools
Global Health Tools
TELEFONICA RESEARCH INSTITUTIONS & POLICY MAKERS
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Scientific Publications• Vanessa Frias-Martinez, Alberto Rubio and Enrique Frias-Martinez, "Measuring the
Impact of Epidemic Alerts on Human Mobility using Cell-Phone Network Data", Second Workshop on Pervasive Urban Applications @Pervasive 2012, Newcastle, UK
• Vanessa Frias-Martinez, Victor Soto, Jesus Virseda and Enrique Frias-Martinez, "Computing Cost-Effective Census Maps From Cell Phone Traces", Second Workshop on Pervasive Urban Applications @ Pervasive 2012, Newcastle, UK.
• Vanessa Frias-Martinez and Jesus Virseda and Enrique Frías-Martínez, "SocioEconomic Status and Physical Mobility",Journal of Information Technology for Development (ITD), Special Edition on "ICT and Human Mobility: Cases From Developing Countries and Beyond", February Issue, pages 1-16, 2012
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Scientific Publications• Vanessa Frias-Martinez and Jesus Virseda,"On The Relationship Between Socio-
Economic actors and Cell Phone Usage", 3rd International Conference on Information & Communication Technologies and Development, ICTD 2012, Atlanta, USA.
• Enrique Frias-Martinez, Graham Williamson and Vanessa Frias-Martinez, "An Agent-Based Model Of Epidemic Spread Using Human Mobility and Social Network Information", 3rd International Conference on Social Computing (SocialCom'11), Boston, USA, 2011
• Victor Soto and Vanessa Frias-Martinez and Jesus Virseda and Enrique Frias-Martinez, "Prediction of Socioeconomic Levels using Cell Phone Records", International Conference on User Modeling, Adaptation and Personalization (UMAP), Industrial Track, Girona, Spain, 2011.
