Looking AheadThe Long Term Economic Impact of
3D Printing
Prof. Thierry RaynaProfessor of Economics
Department of Economics & Finance
Chair of Digital Business
ESG Management School, Paris
Email: [email protected]
Outline
Technological and adoption trends
Opportunities and challenges
Will 3D Printing change the economy?
Public policies
TECHNOLOGICAL & ADOPTION TRENDS
3D Sc
anne
r 3D Printer
Technology
Costs1980 … 2000 2010… …2020
$20K $1K $500
Polymers
$200K
Plastics Metal a!oys
Sugar
Chocolate
Ce!s
Ceramics
…
$100…
…
Many 3D Printing Technologies
Stereolithography (SLA)
Fused Deposition Modelling (FDM)
Laminated Object Manufacturing (LOM)
Selective Laser Sintering (SLS)
Laser Deposition Technology (LDT)
Electron Beam Freeform Fabrication (EBF3)
Tree vs. Forest
Technology
Tree vs. Forest
SLA FDM LOM SLS LDT EBF3
Many materialsPlastics
Metal alloys
Ceramics
Wood
Sugar
Chocolate
Salt
Cells
Molecules
…
WHAT CAN YOU DO WITH 3D PRINTING?
ANYTHING!
ToysSimple ones…
ToysComplex ones
Smartphone casessimple ones
Smartphone casesVery advanced ones
Household itemsSimple ones
Household itemsMore complex ones
DishesCreative ones
Silverware
Food
Tools
Cisors
Shoes
Shoes+Smartphone case
Clothes
JewelleryWorks with gold too…
Cars
Car parts
Car keys
Body parts
Organs
Drugs
The question is not what can you print…
The question is what CAN’T you print…
FDM Printer8 materials (1 at a time)
$1,000
$20,000
Object500 Connex100 materials (14 at a time)
$250,000$1,000?
Usage and adoption trends
Very few consumers own 3D printers
But:
3D printers have already left the factories
They have already reached offices
They will reach the homes tomorrow
Many, many ‘big names’ supporting 3D printing
‘Additive’ adoption
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Adoption
2050
Rapid prototyping
Rapid Tooling
Digital manufacturing
Home fabrication
OPPORTUNITIES & CHALLENGES
“3D Printing is the transformative technology of the 2015–2025 period”
Rich Karlgraad, 2011
“Desktop manufacturing revolution [. . . ] will change the world as much as the personal
computer did”
Chris Anderson, 2012
“3D printing that has the potential to revolutionize the way we make almost
everything.”
Barack Obama, 2013
OPPORTUNITIES
3D Printing – Opportunities
Creativity
Entrepreneurship
Innovation
Sustainability
Opportunity: Creativity
Costly to be creative
3D printing lowers costs
Rapid prototyping for everyone
‘Live objects’: incremental improvements
Meet the demand: know what customers want
Opportunity: Entrepreneurship
‘Kickstarter 2.0’
Anyone can be an entrepreneur
‘On-demand’ production
Virtually no pre-commitment on quantity
Venture capital obsolete?
Community-based entrepreneurship
Opportunity: Innovation
Creativity + Entrepreneurship = Innovation
Opportunity: Sustainability
Additive vs. subtractive
Actual demand vs. estimated demand
Local manufacturing vs remote manufacturing
Fewer resources needed
CHALLENGES
3D Printing – Challenges
Intellectual property rights
Prosumers
Incentives and rewards
Responsibilities and liability
Challenge: Intellectual Property Rights
Consumer piracy
Will happen
Will not be stopped by technology and law
Massive co-creation
What IPR for that?
$ 3,499
$ 3,500
Skills & knowledge embedded in:
the object
the builder
Challenge: Prosumers
Consumers producers = Prosumers
Consumers involved in
Design
Distribution
Manufacturing
Challenge: Incentives and Rewards
Standard contract: agreed output + deadline + predefined payment
Sign a contract with 1,000s of people?
How to define the output and its value?
What about rewards?
Money can be a disincentive
Consumers don’t do it for money, but what for then?
Challenge: Liability
Who is responsible when a 3D printed object does not meet expectations or fails?
Designer?
Hosting platform?
Printer manufacturer?
Consumables manufacturer?
Consumer?
LONG-TERM ECONOMIC IMPACT OF DIGITAL MANUFACTURING
Long-term economic effectsInnovation unleashed
Massive cost savings
Tooling
Transport
Storage
Waste
Return of manufacturing
Regional and global development
Competitiveness
Sustainable growth
Take risk in a risk-free environment
Growth requires to innovate
Innovating is risky and costly
Digital Manufacturing enables to take risks in an (almost) risk-free environment
Towards a third industrial revolution
Radical changes in the economy
Profound reorganisation of industrial sectors
Profound reorganisation of society?
Towards a 3rd Wave?
1st Wave 2nd Wave 3rd Wave
Type
Key resource
Key organisation
Family
Roles
Production
Economy
Agricultural Age Industrial Age Information Age
Land Non-renewable resources
Information*
Village Corporation Communities?
Extended Nuclear Diverse?
Integrated Consumer/producer split
Prosumers
Custom Mass Custom
Decentralised Concentrated ?
Will it be the end of mass production?
Probably not:
People may like the same things
Customisation is uneconomical for large quantities
But:
It might be the end of concentrated production
Will everyone have a 3D printer?
Probably not
after all some people still do not have TV!
probably uneconomical to have a multi-material printer in each home
WHAT ROLE FOR GOVERNMENTS?
The role of governments
Steer and grow the ecosystem
Trigger adoption
Help building a safe and trustworthy environment for digital manufacturing
Rethink IPRs and find new forms of incentives
Embrace 3D Printing
The cat is out of the bag:
3D Printing can’t be prevented, so embrace it!
Transformative effects as high as Personal Computing or even the Internet
Where would countries who had not embraced such technologies be now?
3D Printing
Big DataBiomimicry
Internet of Things
Building bridges...
Thank you
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