London 3DPrintShow 2013: Long-Term Economic Impact of 3D Printing
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Transcript of London 3DPrintShow 2013: Long-Term Economic Impact of 3D Printing
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Looking AheadThe Long Term Economic Impact of
3D Printing
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Prof. Thierry RaynaProfessor of Economics
Department of Economics & Finance
Chair of Digital Business
ESG Management School, Paris
Email: [email protected]
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Outline
Technological and adoption trends
Opportunities and challenges
Will 3D Printing change the economy?
Public policies
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TECHNOLOGICAL & ADOPTION TRENDS
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3D Sc
anne
r 3D Printer
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Technology
Costs1980 … 2000 2010… …2020
$20K $1K $500
Polymers
$200K
Plastics Metal a!oys
Sugar
Chocolate
Ce!s
Ceramics
…
$100…
…
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Many 3D Printing Technologies
Stereolithography (SLA)
Fused Deposition Modelling (FDM)
Laminated Object Manufacturing (LOM)
Selective Laser Sintering (SLS)
Laser Deposition Technology (LDT)
Electron Beam Freeform Fabrication (EBF3)
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Tree vs. Forest
Technology
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Tree vs. Forest
SLA FDM LOM SLS LDT EBF3
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Many materialsPlastics
Metal alloys
Ceramics
Wood
Sugar
Chocolate
Salt
Cells
Molecules
…
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WHAT CAN YOU DO WITH 3D PRINTING?
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ANYTHING!
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ToysSimple ones…
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ToysComplex ones
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Smartphone casessimple ones
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Smartphone casesVery advanced ones
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Household itemsSimple ones
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Household itemsMore complex ones
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DishesCreative ones
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Silverware
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Food
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Tools
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Cisors
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Shoes
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Shoes+Smartphone case
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Clothes
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JewelleryWorks with gold too…
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Cars
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Car parts
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Car keys
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Body parts
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Organs
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Drugs
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The question is not what can you print…
The question is what CAN’T you print…
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FDM Printer8 materials (1 at a time)
$1,000
$20,000
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Object500 Connex100 materials (14 at a time)
$250,000$1,000?
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Usage and adoption trends
Very few consumers own 3D printers
But:
3D printers have already left the factories
They have already reached offices
They will reach the homes tomorrow
Many, many ‘big names’ supporting 3D printing
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‘Additive’ adoption
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Adoption
2050
Rapid prototyping
Rapid Tooling
Digital manufacturing
Home fabrication
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OPPORTUNITIES & CHALLENGES
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“3D Printing is the transformative technology of the 2015–2025 period”
Rich Karlgraad, 2011
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“Desktop manufacturing revolution [. . . ] will change the world as much as the personal
computer did”
Chris Anderson, 2012
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“3D printing that has the potential to revolutionize the way we make almost
everything.”
Barack Obama, 2013
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OPPORTUNITIES
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3D Printing – Opportunities
Creativity
Entrepreneurship
Innovation
Sustainability
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Opportunity: Creativity
Costly to be creative
3D printing lowers costs
Rapid prototyping for everyone
‘Live objects’: incremental improvements
Meet the demand: know what customers want
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Opportunity: Entrepreneurship
‘Kickstarter 2.0’
Anyone can be an entrepreneur
‘On-demand’ production
Virtually no pre-commitment on quantity
Venture capital obsolete?
Community-based entrepreneurship
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Opportunity: Innovation
Creativity + Entrepreneurship = Innovation
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Opportunity: Sustainability
Additive vs. subtractive
Actual demand vs. estimated demand
Local manufacturing vs remote manufacturing
Fewer resources needed
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CHALLENGES
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3D Printing – Challenges
Intellectual property rights
Prosumers
Incentives and rewards
Responsibilities and liability
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Challenge: Intellectual Property Rights
Consumer piracy
Will happen
Will not be stopped by technology and law
Massive co-creation
What IPR for that?
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$ 3,499
$ 3,500
Skills & knowledge embedded in:
the object
the builder
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Challenge: Prosumers
Consumers producers = Prosumers
Consumers involved in
Design
Distribution
Manufacturing
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Challenge: Incentives and Rewards
Standard contract: agreed output + deadline + predefined payment
Sign a contract with 1,000s of people?
How to define the output and its value?
What about rewards?
Money can be a disincentive
Consumers don’t do it for money, but what for then?
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Challenge: Liability
Who is responsible when a 3D printed object does not meet expectations or fails?
Designer?
Hosting platform?
Printer manufacturer?
Consumables manufacturer?
Consumer?
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LONG-TERM ECONOMIC IMPACT OF DIGITAL MANUFACTURING
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Long-term economic effectsInnovation unleashed
Massive cost savings
Tooling
Transport
Storage
Waste
Return of manufacturing
Regional and global development
Competitiveness
Sustainable growth
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Take risk in a risk-free environment
Growth requires to innovate
Innovating is risky and costly
Digital Manufacturing enables to take risks in an (almost) risk-free environment
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Towards a third industrial revolution
Radical changes in the economy
Profound reorganisation of industrial sectors
Profound reorganisation of society?
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Towards a 3rd Wave?
1st Wave 2nd Wave 3rd Wave
Type
Key resource
Key organisation
Family
Roles
Production
Economy
Agricultural Age Industrial Age Information Age
Land Non-renewable resources
Information*
Village Corporation Communities?
Extended Nuclear Diverse?
Integrated Consumer/producer split
Prosumers
Custom Mass Custom
Decentralised Concentrated ?
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Will it be the end of mass production?
Probably not:
People may like the same things
Customisation is uneconomical for large quantities
But:
It might be the end of concentrated production
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Will everyone have a 3D printer?
Probably not
after all some people still do not have TV!
probably uneconomical to have a multi-material printer in each home
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WHAT ROLE FOR GOVERNMENTS?
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The role of governments
Steer and grow the ecosystem
Trigger adoption
Help building a safe and trustworthy environment for digital manufacturing
Rethink IPRs and find new forms of incentives
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Embrace 3D Printing
The cat is out of the bag:
3D Printing can’t be prevented, so embrace it!
Transformative effects as high as Personal Computing or even the Internet
Where would countries who had not embraced such technologies be now?
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3D Printing
Big DataBiomimicry
Internet of Things
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Building bridges...
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Thank you