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Climate Change: Basic Issues Earths climate varies naturally because of a variety of
cosmological and geological processes
Climate change refers to an additional, and relatively rapid, changeinduced by human actions
AGW Anthropogenic Global Warming
The additional change several degrees C within a century willdisrupt the foundations of life on Earth
Ecosystems and life in general have evolved within a narrow band ofclimatic-environmental conditions
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Today's major
environmental issues
Global Warming rise in average global temperature
Global Dimming reduction in amount of heat reaching the earth
Greenhouse Effect trapping of sun's rays, thereby heating uplower layers of the atmosphere
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Observed Climate Change Resulting primarily through:
Industrialization
Urbanization Deforestation
Land-use changes
Global mean temperature has increased by 0.740C
Global average sea level increased
At avg. rate of 1.8 mm/yr over 1961 to 2003
About 3.1 mm/yr over 1993 to 2003
Cold days, nights and frost are less frequent
Hot days, hot nights and heat waves are more frequent
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Climate Change: the debateGreenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations are increasingGHGs are CO2 9-26%
GWP 1; 278ppb 365ppbMethane (CH4) 4-9% GWP 72; 700ppb 1745ppb
Nitrous Oxide (N2O)
GWP 289; 270ppb 314ppb Ozone 3-7%
Water Vapour 36-72%
GHGs affect the climate systemWorld average temperature has risen relatively fast over the past 30
yearsSea-level rise is gradually accelerating
Many temperature-sensitive systems/processes have changed overthe past two decades
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Risks to Small Island-States
Coastal flooding
Amplified storm surges
Damaged coastal infrastructure
Roads
Salination of island fresh-water
Impaired crop production
Population displacement
Diverse health risks
Nutrition
Infection
Mental health
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GHG: Coming Decades
The International Energy Agency predicts that theincrease in greenhouse gas emissions from 2000 to 2030 in China
alone will almost equal the increase from the entire industrializedworld.
China is the world's second largest emitter of such gases, after the
United States even though China's per-person emissions are, forexample, still only one-eighth of those in the United States.
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Some Observations
Global-average surface temperature increased by about 0.6 C over 20th century
1990s warmest decade and 1998 warmest year in last 1000 years in NorthernHemisphere
Over last 50 years night-time minimum temperatures increased by about 0.2 Cper decade
10% reduction in snow cover/ ice since late 1960s
Reduction of about two weeks in annual duration of lake and river ice over 20th
centuryWidespread retreat of mountain glaciers during 20th century
Northern Hemisphere spring and summer sea-ice extent decreased by 10-15%since 1950s
40% decline in late summer Arctic sea-ice thickness in recent decadesGlobal-average sea level has increased by 10-20 cm during 20th century
0.5-1% per decade increase in Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude precipitationduring 20th century
2-4% increase in frequency of heavy precipitation events in Northern Hemispheremid- and high-latitudes over latter half of 20th century
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Future climate change projections
Very likely that hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy precipitation eventswill continue to become more frequent
Likely that future tropical cyclones will become
more intense
with larger peak wind speeds
more heavy precipitation
Extra-tropical storm tracks projected to move poleward with consequent
changes in wind, precipitation, and temperature patterns
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Mitigation until 2030
For stabilization of GHG concentration in the atmosphere, emissions wouldneed to peak and decline thereafter
The lower the stabilization level, the more quickly this peak and declinewould need to occur
Mitigation efforts over the next two to three decades will have a largeimpact on opportunities to achieve lower stabilization levels
Stabilization can be achieved by deployment of a portfolio of technologies
Appropriate and effective incentives required
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Potential mitigationtechnologies and practices
Sectors & Potential activities
Energy
Cleaner Fuel use, Alternative energy sources, Fuel switch Transport Vehicle efficiency, hybrid vehicles, biofuels, modal shift
Buildings
Efficient lighting, appliances, ACs, improved insulation, solarheating and cooling,alternatives of Fluorinated gases
Industry Heat & power recovery, recycling, emission control
Agriculture
Land mgmt, restoration of degraded lands, improved cultivation techniques,improved fertilizer applications
Forests Forest mgmt, reduced deforestation, Forestry
Waste
LF methane recovery, waste incineration and energy recovery, composting,recycling & waste minimization
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Carbon markets: Opportunities
Kyoto Protocol emission reduction
commitments for industrialized countries
Provided for flexibility mechanisms for emissions reduction
Evolution of carbon markets
Deployment, diffusion of clean technologies At sufficiently high price of carbon large shifts of
investments into low carbon technologies can be
expected
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Kyoto Protocol
Protocol of UNFCCC (UN Framework Convention on Climate Change)
Adopted on 11th Dec, 1997 at Kyoto
Ratified by 187 states US has not and accounts for 36% of emissions China, India and other developing nations not included
Aim
Stabilization of GHGs
At levels that will prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference
How?
Annex-1 countries (37 industrialized nations)
Reduce gas emissions by 5.2% over 1990 levels Flexible mechanisms
Emissions Trading
CDM (Clean Development mechanism)
Joint Implementation
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Copenhagen
UNFCCC meet in Copenhagen in Dec, 2009
Copenhagen Accord
India, China, US, Brazil, South Africa Temperature increase to be limited to 2 degrees
Most countries have indicated emission reduction targets
No binding agreement has been signed
India, China and US have indicated cuts in GHGs
1990 or 2005 levels
Purely Voluntary commitments
Non binding Danish Text
2 degree cap
Developing countries adverse reaction Collusion by Developed nations
Next session in Mexico in 2010
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Climate Change in Pictures &Graphs
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THE CLIMATESYSTEM
OCEAN
PrecipitationSea-ice
LAND
Ice- sheetssnow
Biomass
Clouds
Solarradiation
Terrestrialradiation
Greenhouse gases and aerosol
ATMOSPHEREThe Met.Office Hadley Centre
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Kilimanjaro 1970
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Kilimanjaro 2000
Ice on Kilimanjaro
0
5
10
15
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year
Area(km
2)
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1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
One Earth is available(The planets total bio-capacity = 1.0)
Number of Earthsused by humanity
Based on Wackernagel et al, 2002
Changes in environmental indicators, 1750 - 2000
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From: Steffen et al. In press 2004
Atmos CO2 conc
Domesticated landLoss of trop forest, woodland
Coastal shrimp farmsFully exploited fisheries
Climate disastersAv surface temp (NH)Atmos ozone loss
Atmos CH4 concAtmos N2O conc
Coastal N2 flux
Global biodiversity
g ,
F i di t
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From: Steffen et al. 2003
Populatio
n
Total real GDPForeign direct
investment
Damming of rivers Fertiliser consumption
Motor vehicles
Water use
MacDonalds RestaurantsUrban population
International tourism
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Band of historical
climatic variability
20
15
1900 21002000
14
16
17
18
13
19Average GlobalTemperature (OC)
Year205019501860
IPCC (2001) estimatesa 1.4-5.8 oC increase
Low
High
Central estimate = 2.5 oC
(plus increased variability)
This presents a rate-of-change
problem for many naturalsystems/processes
Sea-level rise over coming centuriesS L l Ri h i ill i
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Sea-level rise over coming centuriesfollowing 70 years of excess greenhouse gas emissions
200 400 600 800
Time from start (years)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
Sea-le
velrise(m) Total sea level rise
Ocean Expansion
Ice-melt
Greenhouse gas emissions (super-Kyoto action)
IPCC 2001IPCC, 2001
Sea-Level Rise, over the coming millennium
Peaking in 2050
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Health effects
Temperature -relatedillness and death
Extreme weather -
related health effects
Air pollution -related
health effects
Water and food -borne
diseases
Vector borne and
rodent borne diseases
Health Effects
Temperature-relatedillness and death
Extreme weather-
related (floods, storms,
etc.) health effects
Air pollution-related
health effects
Humanexposures
Regional weather
changes
Heat waves
Extreme weather
Temperature
Precipitation
Regional weather
changes
Heat waves
Extreme weather
Temperature
Sea-level rise
Contamination
pathways
Transmission
dynamics-
-
-
-rodent
Microbial changes:
Contamination paths
Transmission dynamics
Water and food-borne
diseases
Vector borne and
borne diseases
Climate
Change
Climate
Change
Changes in agro-
ecosystems, hydrology
Socioeconomic and
demographic disruption
Effects of food and
water shortages
Mental, nutritional,
infectious-disease and
other effects
Modulatinginfluences
Global average temperature (oC) over the past millennium
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g p p
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34Source: Pew Center on Global Climate Change
Milder Winters, Much HotterMilder Winters, Much Hotter
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35
Milder Winters, Much HotterMilder Winters, Much Hotter
SummersSummers
Source: Dr. Donald Boesch, University of Maryland
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The Skeptics
Their Fig 3: High Latitude Temperature and Solar VariabilityTheir Fig 3: High Latitude Temperature and Solar Variability
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(Mt/Ag/(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnStEnSc/EnSt 404/504404/504 -- Global Change)Global Change) SkepticsSkeptics
Their Fig. 3: High Latitude Temperature and Solar VariabilityTheir Fig. 3: High Latitude Temperature and Solar Variability
Uses outdatedUses outdated
estimate of solarestimate of solar
irradianceirradiance
(see AR4,WG1,Ch2)(see AR4,WG1,Ch2)
Ignores attribution toIgnores attribution to
solar forcing based onsolar forcing based on
physical computationsphysical computations
(see AR4,WG1,Ch 6,9)(see AR4,WG1,Ch 6,9)
Does not understandDoes not understand
(or misrepresents)(or misrepresents)relationship betweenrelationship between
COCO22 increase, forcingincrease, forcing
change, and Earthchange, and Earthss
responseresponse(see AR4,WG1,Ch 6, 8)(see AR4,WG1,Ch 6, 8)
Temperature Reconstruction?Temperature Reconstruction?
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(Mt/Ag/(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnStEnSc/EnSt 404/504404/504 -- Global Change)Global Change) SkepticsSkeptics
Temperature Reconstruction?Temperature Reconstruction?
How much warmer was it?How much warmer was it? Not 1995 reportNot 1995 report -- 1990 report: A1990 report: A schematicschematicsketch!sketch!
Other ContentionsOther Contentions
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(Mt/Ag/(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnStEnSc/EnSt 404/504404/504 -- Global Change)Global Change) SkepticsSkeptics
Other ContentionsOther Contentions
(IPCC AR4 Ch. 1)
ModelModels cans cant forecast weather beyond a few dayst forecast weather beyond a few days so they canso they cant show climate decades ahead.t show climate decades ahead.
Model projections ofglobal temperature
Other ContentionsOther Contentions
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(Mt/Ag/(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnStEnSc/EnSt 404/504404/504 -- Global Change)Global Change) SkepticsSkeptics
Other ContentionsOther Contentions
(IPCC AR4 Ch. 9)
Climate has changed without humans. ItClimate has changed without humans. Its all natural cycles.s all natural cycles.
Simulations
with naturalforcings only
Other ContentionsOther Contentions
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(Mt/Ag/(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnStEnSc/EnSt 404/504404/504 -- Global Change)Global Change) SkepticsSkeptics
Other ContentionsOther Contentions
(IPCC AR4 Ch. 6)
In the 1970s scientists said an ice age was coming. Now theyIn the 1970s scientists said an ice age was coming. Now theyve flipve flip--floppedflopped
Global Temperature Indicator from Ice Cores
Interglacial Periods New Ice Age Starting?
[Thousands of yr]
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(Mt/Ag/(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnStEnSc/EnSt 404/504404/504 -- Global Change)Global Change) SkepticsSkeptics
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(Mt/Ag/(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnStEnSc/EnSt 404/504404/504 -- Global Change)Global Change) SkepticsSkeptics
G
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Alternate Explanations for GW
Solar Irradiance
Sun is most active in the last 60 years of the last 1000 years
Cosmic rays
High Sun output Low Cosmic rays Low Cloud Cover HigherTemperatures
Land use
Solar Activity vs. Global
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Temperatures
S l I di
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Solar Irradiance
S l I di
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Solar Irradiance vs.
Temperatures
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