Kyoto to en

8/9/2019 Kyoto to en

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Climate Change: Basic Issues Earths climate varies naturally because of a variety of

cosmological and geological processes

Climate change refers to an additional, and relatively rapid, changeinduced by human actions

AGW Anthropogenic Global Warming

The additional change several degrees C within a century willdisrupt the foundations of life on Earth

Ecosystems and life in general have evolved within a narrow band ofclimatic-environmental conditions


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Today's major

environmental issues

Global Warming rise in average global temperature

Global Dimming reduction in amount of heat reaching the earth

Greenhouse Effect trapping of sun's rays, thereby heating uplower layers of the atmosphere


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Observed Climate Change Resulting primarily through:

Industrialization

Urbanization Deforestation

Land-use changes

Global mean temperature has increased by 0.740C

Global average sea level increased

At avg. rate of 1.8 mm/yr over 1961 to 2003

About 3.1 mm/yr over 1993 to 2003

Cold days, nights and frost are less frequent

Hot days, hot nights and heat waves are more frequent


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Climate Change: the debateGreenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations are increasingGHGs are CO2 9-26%

GWP 1; 278ppb 365ppbMethane (CH4) 4-9% GWP 72; 700ppb 1745ppb

Nitrous Oxide (N2O)

GWP 289; 270ppb 314ppb Ozone 3-7%

Water Vapour 36-72%

GHGs affect the climate systemWorld average temperature has risen relatively fast over the past 30

yearsSea-level rise is gradually accelerating

Many temperature-sensitive systems/processes have changed overthe past two decades


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Risks to Small Island-States

Coastal flooding

Amplified storm surges

Damaged coastal infrastructure

Roads

Salination of island fresh-water

Impaired crop production

Population displacement

Diverse health risks

Nutrition

Infection

Mental health


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GHG: Coming Decades

The International Energy Agency predicts that theincrease in greenhouse gas emissions from 2000 to 2030 in China

alone will almost equal the increase from the entire industrializedworld.

China is the world's second largest emitter of such gases, after the

United States even though China's per-person emissions are, forexample, still only one-eighth of those in the United States.


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Some Observations

Global-average surface temperature increased by about 0.6 C over 20th century

1990s warmest decade and 1998 warmest year in last 1000 years in NorthernHemisphere

Over last 50 years night-time minimum temperatures increased by about 0.2 Cper decade

10% reduction in snow cover/ ice since late 1960s

Reduction of about two weeks in annual duration of lake and river ice over 20th

centuryWidespread retreat of mountain glaciers during 20th century

Northern Hemisphere spring and summer sea-ice extent decreased by 10-15%since 1950s

40% decline in late summer Arctic sea-ice thickness in recent decadesGlobal-average sea level has increased by 10-20 cm during 20th century

0.5-1% per decade increase in Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude precipitationduring 20th century

2-4% increase in frequency of heavy precipitation events in Northern Hemispheremid- and high-latitudes over latter half of 20th century


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Future climate change projections

Very likely that hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy precipitation eventswill continue to become more frequent

Likely that future tropical cyclones will become

more intense

with larger peak wind speeds

more heavy precipitation

Extra-tropical storm tracks projected to move poleward with consequent

changes in wind, precipitation, and temperature patterns


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Mitigation until 2030

For stabilization of GHG concentration in the atmosphere, emissions wouldneed to peak and decline thereafter

The lower the stabilization level, the more quickly this peak and declinewould need to occur

Mitigation efforts over the next two to three decades will have a largeimpact on opportunities to achieve lower stabilization levels

Stabilization can be achieved by deployment of a portfolio of technologies

Appropriate and effective incentives required


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Potential mitigationtechnologies and practices

Sectors & Potential activities

Energy

Cleaner Fuel use, Alternative energy sources, Fuel switch Transport Vehicle efficiency, hybrid vehicles, biofuels, modal shift

Buildings

Efficient lighting, appliances, ACs, improved insulation, solarheating and cooling,alternatives of Fluorinated gases

Industry Heat & power recovery, recycling, emission control

Agriculture

Land mgmt, restoration of degraded lands, improved cultivation techniques,improved fertilizer applications

Forests Forest mgmt, reduced deforestation, Forestry

Waste

LF methane recovery, waste incineration and energy recovery, composting,recycling & waste minimization


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Carbon markets: Opportunities

Kyoto Protocol emission reduction

commitments for industrialized countries

Provided for flexibility mechanisms for emissions reduction

Evolution of carbon markets

Deployment, diffusion of clean technologies At sufficiently high price of carbon large shifts of

investments into low carbon technologies can be

expected


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Kyoto Protocol

Protocol of UNFCCC (UN Framework Convention on Climate Change)

Adopted on 11th Dec, 1997 at Kyoto

Ratified by 187 states US has not and accounts for 36% of emissions China, India and other developing nations not included

Aim

Stabilization of GHGs

At levels that will prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference

How?

Annex-1 countries (37 industrialized nations)

Reduce gas emissions by 5.2% over 1990 levels Flexible mechanisms

Emissions Trading

CDM (Clean Development mechanism)

Joint Implementation


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Copenhagen

UNFCCC meet in Copenhagen in Dec, 2009

Copenhagen Accord

India, China, US, Brazil, South Africa Temperature increase to be limited to 2 degrees

Most countries have indicated emission reduction targets

No binding agreement has been signed

India, China and US have indicated cuts in GHGs

1990 or 2005 levels

Purely Voluntary commitments

Non binding Danish Text

2 degree cap

Developing countries adverse reaction Collusion by Developed nations

Next session in Mexico in 2010


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Climate Change in Pictures &Graphs


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THE CLIMATESYSTEM

OCEAN

PrecipitationSea-ice

LAND

Ice- sheetssnow

Biomass

Clouds

Solarradiation

Terrestrialradiation

Greenhouse gases and aerosol

ATMOSPHEREThe Met.Office Hadley Centre


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Kilimanjaro 1970


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Kilimanjaro 2000

Ice on Kilimanjaro

0

5

10

15

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Year

Area(km

2)


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1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

One Earth is available(The planets total bio-capacity = 1.0)

Number of Earthsused by humanity

Based on Wackernagel et al, 2002

Changes in environmental indicators, 1750 - 2000


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From: Steffen et al. In press 2004

Atmos CO2 conc

Domesticated landLoss of trop forest, woodland

Coastal shrimp farmsFully exploited fisheries

Climate disastersAv surface temp (NH)Atmos ozone loss

Atmos CH4 concAtmos N2O conc

Coastal N2 flux

Global biodiversity

g ,

F i di t


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From: Steffen et al. 2003

Populatio

n

Total real GDPForeign direct

investment

Damming of rivers Fertiliser consumption

Motor vehicles

Water use

MacDonalds RestaurantsUrban population

International tourism


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Band of historical

climatic variability

20

15

1900 21002000

14

16

17

18

13

19Average GlobalTemperature (OC)

Year205019501860

IPCC (2001) estimatesa 1.4-5.8 oC increase

Low

High

Central estimate = 2.5 oC

(plus increased variability)

This presents a rate-of-change

problem for many naturalsystems/processes

Sea-level rise over coming centuriesS L l Ri h i ill i


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Sea-level rise over coming centuriesfollowing 70 years of excess greenhouse gas emissions

200 400 600 800

Time from start (years)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

Sea-le

velrise(m) Total sea level rise

Ocean Expansion

Ice-melt

Greenhouse gas emissions (super-Kyoto action)

IPCC 2001IPCC, 2001

Sea-Level Rise, over the coming millennium

Peaking in 2050


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Health effects

Temperature -relatedillness and death

Extreme weather -

related health effects

Air pollution -related

health effects

Water and food -borne

diseases

Vector borne and

rodent borne diseases

Health Effects

Temperature-relatedillness and death

Extreme weather-

related (floods, storms,

etc.) health effects

Air pollution-related

health effects

Humanexposures

Regional weather

changes

Heat waves

Extreme weather

Temperature

Precipitation

Regional weather

changes

Heat waves

Extreme weather

Temperature

Sea-level rise

Contamination

pathways

Transmission

dynamics-

-

-

-rodent

Microbial changes:

Contamination paths

Transmission dynamics

Water and food-borne

diseases

Vector borne and

borne diseases

Climate

Change

Climate

Change

Changes in agro-

ecosystems, hydrology

Socioeconomic and

demographic disruption

Effects of food and

water shortages

Mental, nutritional,

infectious-disease and

other effects

Modulatinginfluences

Global average temperature (oC) over the past millennium


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g p p


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34Source: Pew Center on Global Climate Change

Milder Winters, Much HotterMilder Winters, Much Hotter


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35

Milder Winters, Much HotterMilder Winters, Much Hotter

SummersSummers

Source: Dr. Donald Boesch, University of Maryland


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The Skeptics

Their Fig 3: High Latitude Temperature and Solar VariabilityTheir Fig 3: High Latitude Temperature and Solar Variability


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(Mt/Ag/(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnStEnSc/EnSt 404/504404/504 -- Global Change)Global Change) SkepticsSkeptics

Their Fig. 3: High Latitude Temperature and Solar VariabilityTheir Fig. 3: High Latitude Temperature and Solar Variability

Uses outdatedUses outdated

estimate of solarestimate of solar

irradianceirradiance

(see AR4,WG1,Ch2)(see AR4,WG1,Ch2)

Ignores attribution toIgnores attribution to

solar forcing based onsolar forcing based on

physical computationsphysical computations

(see AR4,WG1,Ch 6,9)(see AR4,WG1,Ch 6,9)

Does not understandDoes not understand

(or misrepresents)(or misrepresents)relationship betweenrelationship between

COCO22 increase, forcingincrease, forcing

change, and Earthchange, and Earthss

responseresponse(see AR4,WG1,Ch 6, 8)(see AR4,WG1,Ch 6, 8)

Temperature Reconstruction?Temperature Reconstruction?


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Temperature Reconstruction?Temperature Reconstruction?

How much warmer was it?How much warmer was it? Not 1995 reportNot 1995 report -- 1990 report: A1990 report: A schematicschematicsketch!sketch!

Other ContentionsOther Contentions


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(IPCC AR4 Ch. 1)

ModelModels cans cant forecast weather beyond a few dayst forecast weather beyond a few days so they canso they cant show climate decades ahead.t show climate decades ahead.

Model projections ofglobal temperature



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(IPCC AR4 Ch. 9)

Climate has changed without humans. ItClimate has changed without humans. Its all natural cycles.s all natural cycles.

Simulations

with naturalforcings only



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(IPCC AR4 Ch. 6)

In the 1970s scientists said an ice age was coming. Now theyIn the 1970s scientists said an ice age was coming. Now theyve flipve flip--floppedflopped

Global Temperature Indicator from Ice Cores

Interglacial Periods New Ice Age Starting?

[Thousands of yr]


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G


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Alternate Explanations for GW

Solar Irradiance

Sun is most active in the last 60 years of the last 1000 years

Cosmic rays

High Sun output Low Cosmic rays Low Cloud Cover HigherTemperatures

Land use

Solar Activity vs. Global


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Temperatures

S l I di


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Solar Irradiance

S l I di


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Solar Irradiance vs.

Temperatures

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