December 2019
KEY STATISTICS ON RWANDA
Rwanda in the heart of Africa
National Boundary
Province Boundary
District Boundary
National Park
Key facts
Capital Kigali
Population 12.4 million (2019)1
Nominal GDP FRW 8,189 billion (2018, approx. US$ 9.5 billion)2
GDP Growth 8.6 % (2018)3
Literacy Rate 73%4
External Debt (% of GDP)43.0% (End 2019)
5
Time to Start a Business 6 hours6
Credit Rating B+ (stable); B (Positive)7
Currency Rwandan Franc (892.27 FRW) = 1 US$ (07th
May 2019)8
1. National Institute of Statistics Rwanda (NISR)
2. NISR; NBR for exchange
3. NISR
4. NISR – EICV5 FY2016/17 (% of people ages 15 and above)
5. MINECOFIN (End June 2019)
6. World Bank Doing Business Report 2019
7. Fitch March 2019; Standard & Poor’s February 2019
8. BNR
Rwanda at a Glance
2
More than 1,000,000 million lives lost in the genocide against Tutsi;
Stagnating economy shrank by 50% (average growth of 2.2% between 1985 and
1993);
64% of inflation;
Poverty rate of 78% with rapid population growth rate of 3.4% (between 1985 –
1990);
Entire socio-economic fabric destroyed and dilapidated infrastructure;
Large number of displaced persons;
More than 140,000 genocide suspects in prisons;
Capacity gaps and inexistent institutional framework - 96% civil servants with no
higher education qualification;
Complete restart was required
1994 Genocide Against Tutsi
3
A series of Development Strategies Implementing the Vision 2020 have been developed
PRSP 1 (2002 – 2006)
• Recovery from post conflict situation;
• Major gains in social sectors e.g. health and education;
• Poverty reduced by 3% points (60% to 57%).
EDPRS 1 (2008 – 2012)
• Preparation for take off;
• High poverty reduction (12% points);
• Reduced inequality;
• High growth (average 8.2%);
• Strong contribution to achievement of MDGs.
EDPRS 2 (2013 – 2018)
• Rapid growth 11.5%;
• Fast poverty reduction (15% points) to less than 30%;
• Closing trade balance with rapid growth of exports (28%);
• Increased private sector investment.
1. Key Achievements over the last two decades
Rwanda’s Development Hat TrickGDP Per Per Capita (US$)
Sustained economic growth has lifted more than
1 million people out of poverty
Rapid economic growth and macroeconomic
stability: resilient to shocks;
Important poverty reduction;
Reduced inequality and increased access to
services: health, education, financial inclusion;
Rwanda’s development hat trick over last two
decades
5
374
146225
579
774 787
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1990 1994 2000 2010 2017 2018
Agriculture29%
Industry16%
Services48%
Taxes less Subsidies
7%
Agriculture37%
Industry13%
Services43%
Taxes less Subsidies
7%
2005
2018
Economic Transformation
60.4
57
44.939.1 38.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
GDP Growth (left) Poverty rate (right)
Linear (Poverty rate (right))
Self-financing and Financing of our Development
Increasing proportion of the budget
financed from domestic resources
and loans as opposed to grants.
30%
55.7%
86%
70%
44.3%
14%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1995 2005 2019/20
Domestic Resources & loans (% of total Budget)
External Ressources (% of total budget)
Total Budget (in billion Frw)
With prudent borrowing for investment, sustainable debt
levels have been maintained since Rwanda accessed debt
relief from IMF/WB and other creditors in 2006;
At end 2018, Rwanda’s total PPG debt was
estimated at US$ 4.9 billion, representing
53.6%of GDP, of with:
38.5% of GDP is external debt and mostly
concessional at 79% of total debt;
10.9% of GDP is domestic debt.
The Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) of Rwanda
indicates that Rwanda has a low risk of debt distress.
Total Public Debt (in % of GDP)National budget - Sources of Financing
13.1 10.9
87.5
58.4
16.315.8
38.5
100.6
92.8
68.0
24.9 24.5
53.6
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Domestic Debt External Debt Total Debt
Social Progress
Under 5 mortality per 1,000 : 50 (MDG Target:50.1)
Maternity Mortality per 100,000 : 210 (MDG target: 268)
Life expectancy : from 49 years in 2000 to 66 years by 2017;
Literacy rates (aged 15 to 24) : from 48% in 2000 to 86.5% in 2017;
Financial inclusion : from 48% in 2008 to 89% in 2016;
Mobile phones owners : from 6% in 2006 to 79.2% in 2016;
Pupils – qualified teacher ratio in Secondary : 28-1 in 2016;
Access to improved sanitation facilities (% of population): 87.3% in 2017;
Access to clean water (% of population) :88.5% in 2016;
A hub for rapidly integrating East Africa : located centrally bordering 3 countries in East
Africa, part of EAC Common Market and Customers Union with market potential of over 125 million
people
Market of over 12 million people with a rapidly growing middle class.
Social progress has accompanied economic progress
Social progress has been possible due to good governance
Kigali representative of this progress:
Clean and green city, with the lowest crime of any capital city in the region;
Winner of UN Habitat Award (2008) the highest award for an urban area;
Safe for women to walk alone (2nd Globally – Gallup report).
8
Rwanda on International Scene
Rwanda
3nd Country in Cyber Security
in Africa
2nd Easiest Place to do Business in
Sub-Saharan Africa
2nd most competitive in
Africa
1st safest place in Africa
9th Best Place to be a Woman
Globally
7th Global Most efficient Government
WB Report 2019
World Travel Guide
2018
Global Cyber Security
Index 2018
Gallup Global Report 2019
World Economic Forum
2015
Global
Competitiveness
report 2018/19
WEF:Global Gender
Gap Index 2020
2. The Vision
Vision 2050 Ambitions and Growth Requirements
10
$-
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
2017 Baseline 2020
Vision 2020
2024 NST1 2035 Upper Middle Income 2050 High Income
GD
P p
er
cap
ita (
in c
urr
en
t U
SD
)
Avg. growth of 12%
over 2025-2035
Avg. growth of >9%
over 2036-2050
Avg. growth of
9.1%
over NST1
NST1- Working Towards Building the Production Capacity of the Economy
• Needs to orient the economy towards:
– Higher Value added activities Growth in labor inputs, improvement in education,
Technology/Innovation
– More production of tradeable efforts in boosting private investment - savings – capital inflows),
scale, strengthened regional and global trade linkages etc.
1011
1589
3232
1923
2576
4348
-772-1117
-1588
1153
1791
3780
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
2017 2020 2024
X goods
M goods
Current Account
Gross official reserves
14.4%17.6%
21.2%
8.3%
8.6%
9.9%22.6%
26.1%
31.1%
2017 2020 2024
Public investment
Private Investment incl inventories
Total investment
12.1%
16.6%
23.9%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
2017 2020 2024
Domestic savings
NST1- Working Towards Building the Production Capacity of the Economy
(Ctd.)
• Structural Transformation Expected:
•Drivers: The services (exports of services - tourism, MICE) and Industry sector
(large improvement in mining production, infrastructure, industrial parks operational
boosting exports) accompanied by robust performance in the agriculture
sector (gains in land and agricultural efficiency labor movement towards higher
value sectors).
30.8 29.0% 28.0% 27.0% 26.0% 24.9% 24.0% 22.9%
15.8 16.2 18.2% 19.0% 19.7% 20.5% 21.1% 21.8%
46.4 47.8 47.4% 47.6% 47.7% 47.8% 48.0% 48.3%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Agriculture Industry Services
Key Prerequisites and drivers for future Growth in Rwanda
High Growth
Highly-developed
Humancapital Competitive
Private Sector
Well-managed
UrbanizationEfficient and Accountable institutions
Modern Agriculture/Food sector
Trade and regional
integration
Key Objectives/Targets of NST 1
Create 1,500,000 jobs (over
214,000 annually)
Grow exports (“Made in
Rwanda”) by 17% annually
and develop local industries
Double tourism revenues to
USD 800 million by 2024 from
USD 404 million in 2016
Ensure digital literacy for all
youth (16 to 30 years) and
60% of adults by 2024
Increase long term savings
and 100% financial inclusion
(from 89% in 2017)
Double agriculture productivity
on key crops (range from 30 to
100%)
Increase irrigation from 48,508
ha (2017) to 102,284 ha in
202414
Economic Transformation Social Transformation Transformational Governance
Promoting Kinyarwanda as a
language, values and culture
Promoting unity and
reconciliation
Promoting home grown
solutions
Safety and Security of
citizens and property
Contributing to peace and
security in Africa and globally
Fight corruption in all its
forms
Fight against genocide
ideology in Rwanda and
anywhere in the world
Increase districts revenue
capacity to finance their
development needs by
promoting local economic
development
Eradication of extreme poverty
100% access to water,
electricity and broadband
Universal access to Quality
health (health facilities 100%
access to basic infrastructure)
Reproductive health and family
planning to increase
contraceptive prevalence from
48% (2013/14) to 60% in 2024
Universal access to Quality
education (education facilities
100% access to basic
infrastructure)
100% access to basic
sanitation and hygiene
Promoting affordable housing
2. Recent Economic Developments and Projections
16
Growth has accelerated since 2018, supported by services and industry sectors with the
recovery of the construction sector and a broad-based growth in services.
Over the MT, Real GDP growth is projected to average 8%. Full implementation of our
structural reform agenda will further boost growth potential (Agriculture sector is expected to
perform well in food and export crops due to continuing investments to improve seeds and to
scale irrigation; current investment to establish a smelting plant to add value to our minerals will
boost the mining sector and revenues, completion of the Bugesera Airport to support further the
tourism sector etc.)
GDP Growth projections 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
GDP 6.2% 8.9% 6.0% 6.1% 8.6% 8.5% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0%
AGRICULTURE 7.0% 5.0% 4.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.6% 5.3% 5.4% 5.2%
Food crops 9.0% 4.0% 3.0% 7.0% 4.3% 3.6% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1%
INDUSTRY 3.0% 9.0% 7.0% 5.0% 10.0% 11.8% 11.9% 11.0% 12.3%
Mining & quarrying 25.0% -5.0% 10.0% 21.0% 2.0% 10.4% 14.9% 15.2% 18.4%
Manufacturing -13.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 11.0% 9.3% 7.2% 9.1% 8.8%
Construction 10.0% 15.0% 5.0% -3.0% 14.1% 15.1% 14.8% 11.0% 13.0%
SERVICES 7.0% 10.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 8.8% 8.3% 8.1% 7.7%
Real Sector
External Sector
Exports increased over the past years and more recently with the made in Rwanda policy;
Tourism receipts have experienced a very strong annual growth of 9.0% on average between 2009 and
2019. A continued focus on MICE (Meetings, Incentives, Conferences & Events) is expected to boost tourism
receipts in the future, aided by the construction of a new international airport.
Remittances recorded a 22.1% increase between 2017 and 2018, following a 24.1% increase between
2016 and 2017. Remittances tripled since 2009.
The current account deficit is projected to rise to 10.6 % of GDP in 2019 (from 7.9% in 2018) and decline
thereafter(7.3% in 2023), reflecting frontloaded public investment spending to meet some of the NST 1
priority investments.
Foreign inflows have been increasing steadily (in million USD)Current account balance improvement to continue over the
Medium Term
-18
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
-
500.0
1,000.0
1,500.0
2,000.0
2,500.0
3,000.0
3,500.0
4,000.0
4,500.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Perc
ent
of
GD
P
Valu
e in m
ln U
SD
Years
Export goods and services Import goods and services
Current account % GDP
-
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1,000.0
1,200.0
1,400.0
1,600.0
-
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1,000.0
1,200.0
1,400.0
1,600.0
Valu
e in m
ln U
SD
Valu
e
Years
Reserves (Right) Remittances(Credit)
Tourism(credit) Foreign Direct Investment
Exports receipts(credit)
Fiscal Policy
Domestic revenue mobilization, careful spending containment and strong debt
management have rendered fiscal and debt positions sustainable, while still allowing
for a growth-enhancing scaling up of public investment and social spending in the
Medium term.
Tax collections have consistently increased in recent years from less than 12% of GDP in
early 2010s to 16.5% of GDP in 2018/19, reflecting an improving level of efficiency in
revenue collection. The ratio is projected at 16.8% in 2021/22.
Debt Sustainability Indicators
Indicators 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Threshold
PV Debt/GDP 29.0 31.9 34.2 35.8 38.2 55
PV Debt/Exports 135.2 150.6 160.0 161.9 171.3 240
PV Debt service/
Exports 4.0 9.0 11.1 14.1 9.8 21
PV Debt service /
Revenues4.3 10.5 13.2 17.1 11.9 23
Monetary Policy
Monetary policy has kept inflation low while supporting macroeconomic stability and maintaining
broad exchange rate stability;
Inflation: In 2019, inflation increased on average by 2.0 (end November) and it is projected to
increase to 5% by end 2020 and to remain the same over the medium term.
Credit to private sector grew by 12.5% in November 2019 from 10.8% in 2018.
The Rwandan franc depreciated by 4.94% against the USD in 2019, while in 2018 it had
depreciated by 4.0%.
The medium term objective: maintain a low level of inflation and support credit to the
private sector growth.
EAC countries inflation rates
Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19
Uganda 2.7 3.0 3.0 3.5 3.3 3.4 2.6 2.1 1.9 2.5 3.0
Kenya 4.7 4.0 4.4 6.6 5.5 5.7 6.3 5.0 3.8 5.0 5.6
Tanzania 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.6 3.8
Rwanda 1.0 0.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.9 1.9 2.3 3.1 4.4 6.9
Burundi -3.8 -4.1 -2.9 -2.2 -2.4 -4.0 -2.6 -0.6 2.0 4.0 NA
3. The Development Impact
21
Poverty and Extreme poverty reduced
Poverty and Extreme Poverty has reduced considerably from 2000 to 2017.
78%
60.4%
44.9%
39.1% 38.2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
1994 2000 2011 2015 2017
Poverty
40%
24.1%
16.3% 16%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2000 2011 2015 2017
Extreme Poverty
Source: EICV 5
22
Health has improved: Life expectancy increased
2.9%
2.4%2.2%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
2000 2012 Vision 2020
Population Growth Rate (%)
46.4
29.1
51.2
64.5 66.6
1978 1991 2002 2012 2017
Life Expectancy
A national-wide rollout of healthcare, including health insurance coverage for over 80% of the
population contributed to the increase in life expectancy.
23
Health has improved for all- Mothers
6.1
4.6
4.2
4.9
3.4 3.6
6.3
4.8
4.3
2005 2010 2014/15
Fertility trends
Rwanda Urban Rural
1071
750
476
210
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
RDHS 2000 RDHS 2005 RDHS 2010 RDHS 2014-15
Maternal Mortality per 100,000
27% 28%
45%
69%
91%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
RDHS 2000 RDHS 2005 RDHS 2007-08
RDHS 2010 RDHS 2014-15
Percentage of delivery in a Heath facility
Source: Demographic and Health Survey 2014-15
24
Health has improved for all-Children
107
196
86
152
62
103
50
76
32
50
IMR U5MR
Infant and Under Five Mortality:Number of deaths per 1000 live births
RDHS 2000 RDHS 2005 RDHS 2007/8 RDHS 2010 RDHS 2014/15
MDG 2015 target: 35
MDG 2015 target: 50.1
25
Increased Education
1,845
2,909
941,012
2,503,705
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
1995 2000 2005 2010 2013 2016 2018
Primary Schools Students Primary
150
1,728
20,533
658,285
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2013 2016 2018Secondary Schools Students Secondary
Secondary Education Primary Education
Primary pupils in 2018 have increased more than
2.7 times and secondary students 32 times;
Tertiary institutions in 2018 have increased more
than 5.7 the number in 1995;
The number of students have increased 31.6 times
in the same period.7
40
2,821
89,160
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1995 2000 2005 2010 2013 2014 2016 2018
Tertiary Schools Student Tertiary
Tertiary Education
26
Jobs created & better access to financial services
48%
89% 90%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2008 2016 Vision 2020
% of Adult Population Accessing Financial Services
Non Farm81%
Farm based19%
Total Jobs: 206,190
Non Farm Jobs: 166,058
Farm Jobs: 40,132
Source: Labor force surveys 2017 - 2018
Net Jobs Created between 2017 and 2018
27
Increasing Access to Basic Infrastructure
59%
73.2%
85%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2000 2015 Vision 2020Target
% of Roads in Good Condition
58.5%
74.5%
84.8%87.1%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
2006 2011 2015 2017
Improved Water Source
70.3%74.2%
85.0%87.3%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
2006 2011 2015 2017
Improved Sanitation
Source: EICV 5
4. Country “Wealth” versus “GDP”
Wealth versus GDP
GDP is a measure of income, not wealth.
It values a flow of goods and services,
not a stock of assets.
– Figure1: With a GDP/capita of
US$764/year, or 2 US$/day, Rwanda
is considered a low-income country.
Wealth provides information about the
long-term health of an economy. A fall in
wealth indicates that a country is
depleting its assets and may not be able
to sustain its future GDP growth.
– Figure2: Based on the principles of
NCA, the total wealth for Rwanda is
estimated to be US$21 619/capita in
2014 terms . This is nearly 30 times
higher than the GDP/capita.
Wealth Accounting complements GDP
as it reflects the state of assets that
produce GDP
Figure 1 Rwanda: GDP per capita (constant 2010 US$)Source: World Bank 2019
Figure 2 Rwanda: Total wealth per capita: US$21 619/capita (2014)
Note that natural capital is sub-divided into its parts.Source: Lange et al. (2018)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
GDP Per capita
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
YR 1995 YR 2000 YR 2005 YR 2010 YR 2014
Co
nst
an
t 2
01
4 U
SD
Mill
ion
Components of Natural Resource Wealth over Time -Rwanda
Forests Prot Area Cropland Pasture Energy NR Mineral NR
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
YR 1995 YR 2000 YR 2005 YR 2010 YR 2014
Co
nsta
nt 2
01
4 U
SD
Components of Natural Resource Wealth / Capita over Time -Rwanda
Forests / cap Prot Area / cap Cropland / cap
Pasture /cap Energy NR / cap Mineral NR / cap
Most of the improvement is in Cropland
Forests and protected areas are a small component of the total
Mineral and Energy resources have quite small shares
Rwanda shows improvement even in Natural Resources Wealth
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
YR 1995 YR 2000 YR 2005 YR 2010 YR 2014
Cons
tant
201
4 U
SD M
illio
n
Changes in Levels of National Wealth over Time - Rwanda
Produced Capital Renewable Natural CapitalNon-Renewable Natural Capital Human CapitalNet Foreign Assets
Large increase evident in Human Capital
Renewable natural resources = 2nd largest positive change
Rwanda – Changes in National Wealth (relative to 1995)
6. Conclusion
33
Success Factors
Visionary Leadership
Good Governance and accountability –low corruption levels, citizen participation,
decentralization
Inclusive development model – gender equality, pro-poor policies, promoting unity and
solidarity
Home grown initiatives (e.g. Umuganda, Gacaca, Girinka etc.) and innovations built on
the positives from the Rwandan culture and identity e.g. Agaciro (dignity), Kwigira,
Ubudashyikirwa (excellence), etc.
Use of ICT
Investment in human capital – mainly capacity building
Results oriented institutional framework – performance contracts
34
Some useful links for economic data and reports
MINECOFIN
Annual Economic Reports FY: http://www.minecofin.gov.rw/index.php?id=124
Macroeconomic and Budget public data: http://www.minecofin.gov.rw/index.php?id=173
Budget Framework Paper/ Budget Speeches/ Budget Execution Reports : http://www.minecofin.gov.rw/index.php?id=231&L=588
This Presentation: http://www.minecofin.gov.rw/index.php?id=165
NISR
GDP: http://www.statistics.gov.rw/statistical-publications/subject/gross-domestic-product-%28gdp%29
EICV: http://www.statistics.gov.rw/datasource/integrated-household-living-conditions-survey-5-eicv-5
Labor Force Survey: http://www.statistics.gov.rw/datasource/labour-force-survey-0
Demographic and Health Survey: http://www.statistics.gov.rw/datasource/demographic-and-health-survey-dhs
BNR
Monetary Policy and Financial Statement: https://www.bnr.rw/news-publications/publications/monetary-policy-financial-stability-
statement/
Balance of Payments: https://www.bnr.rw/browse-in/statistics/external-sector-statistics/
THANK YOU
Contact for detailed information or for any question on the presentation: [email protected]
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