Is three a crowd? Chinese and Japanese resource strategy in the Russian Arctic.
Timothy MagnerMA Candidate, Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy
Arctic Frontiers January 23, 2015Tromsø, Norway Center for International Environment and Resource Policy
Overview
Russia’s shift to East Asia …
Development in the Russian far east …
Impact of low oil prices …
A land without a people, for a people without land?
Source: Satoshi Kambayashi, The Economist
Russian exports by country (2013)
Europe
Asia
Source: World Bank, MIT,
Japan (next in line? …)
Abe: First Japanese PM to visit Russia in 10 years (April ‘13) …
First ever Japan-Russia 2+2 talks (Nov ‘13) …
Russian Arctic Resources …
No Development
“Arctic Creep” continues
High-risk Chinese/Asia Arctic
investment
Western IOCs position …
But no Development
WesternSanctions
Crippling
Repealed
Oil Prices HighLow
Pre-Sanctions
1H 2014
Today
Risk increases as best-in-class, i.e.
Western, firms are unable to operate
Source: Rystad Energy 2014
Arctic
Project Name LocationBreak-Even Price
($/barrel)
BP Liberty Beaufort Sea $109
Amauligak Beaufort Sea $113
ENI Goliat Barents Sea $95
Johan Castberg Barents Sea $85
Bakken Field North Dakota $65
Sample Arctic Break-Even Development PricesBreak-Even Prices for Non-producing Assets
Thank you.
Center for International Environment and Resource Policy
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