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7 Technical Analysis 6
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Technical Analysis
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3.
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5.
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- (struggle of existence)
- (survival the fittest )
( )
5
2. Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI)
1. the average weekly hours worked by manufacturing workers 2. the
average number of initial applications for unemployment
insurance 3. the amount of manufacturers’ new orders for consumer
goods
sand materials 4. the speed of delivery of new merchandise to
vendors from
suppliers 5. the amount of new orders for capital goods unrelated
to
defense 6. the amount of new building permits for residential
buildings 7. the S&P 500 stock index 8. the inflation-adjusted
monetary supply (M2) 9. the spread between long and short interest
rates 10.consumer sentiment
LEI Conference Board
5
3. Trailing PE Ratio P/E
4. Market Breadth
Technical Analysis New
High New Low 1 New High New Low … Elliott Wave
Golden Cross & Dead Cross Divergence
5
5. ISM Index ?? ISM Institute for Supply Management
Business Sector Institute of Supply Management
Arizona 5 1. Production
levels 2. New orders placed 3. Inventory Levels 4. Supplier
deliveries 5. Employment environment
5 5
1. Treasury Yield Curve Market Fund Flow 2. Index of Leading
Economic Indicators (LEI) 3. Economic Fundamental 4.
Trailing PE Ratio Valuation 5. Market Breadth Technical Analysis 6.
ISM Index Market Sentiment
5 5 5
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? CEA 2040 35% GDP
Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited (DTTL) Global Life Sciences and
Health Care Industry Group analysis of United Nations data
statistics ( ) ( 60 )
1.9% 1.2% 60 3 50 2,000 ..
2050
3
(Healthcare) ? Mega Trend
Trend
1. (Pandemic) 2009-2011 H1N1 85 250,000 2.
2 3. Bypass 3% 10 1.5%
4. a) b) ()
Healthcare Sector
???? BGH, BH, BCH
Healthcare PE Healthcare (Biotech)
Master Fund JPMorgan Global Healthcare KF-HEALTHD .
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2-3
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25 .. .. 2534
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17 .. MH17 Grabove SA-11 "" (
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10% EU
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Euro Debt Crisis 2011
Action ECB FED Model
PIIGS
Lobby " EUR "
2 .. Currency War ( )
QE FED
1950
60
QE Model ECB QE
(ECB) % GDP
LTRO
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Policy Marker ECB Balance Sheet QE EUR GDP
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Occupy Central Occupy Wallstreet
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)
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Hang Seng 5%- 10%
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Hang Seng 9% PE Ratio 10.06 Dividend
Yield 3.57%
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FOMC 28-29 .. 9-1
QE3 QE QE 4 5 6 7 8 9 ... QE Infinity
1. QE1 QE3 S&P500 170% 6
2. QE MBS Bond Yield
USD USD
Dollar Index 2009 5
QE Money Supply USD Demand
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USD Demand ? Subprime
EURO ZONE
EURO ZONE ( . 50% ) Lost
Decade
Double Dips
QE ... Euro Zone QE
Recession
ECB Balance Sheet Fed QE 3 ECB
Balance Sheet ECB 2012 PIIGS LTRO ECB
2012
QE
?? " "
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QE 31 .. BOJ 5-4 QE
¥60-70 Trillion ¥80 Trillion
555+
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QQE (... 3 )
** QQE Quantitative and Qualitative Easing
QE **
BOJ ECB 2 "“
(NBS) (CPI) .. 1.6% 56 Euro Zone
Wealth Management Package Shadow Banking ( Shadow
Banking http://pantip.com/topic/30703160)
7.695 (1.2615 ) (Medium-term Lending
Facility : MLF) 2
QE
Euro Zone, Japan China 6 Enjoy ( )
PE New High , , (
QE )
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QE
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? 17% Ruble 50% 2
1.
2. ?
Asian financial crisis 1997 Fixed
Russian Financial Crisis $26 1997 $10
1998
Ruble 1998 Demand
16
Hedge Fund
( USD 2 )
Subset Shale Gas Shale Oil
Shale Gas Shale Oil Clean Energy ( The
White House )
...
OPEC
Side Effect Domino
Valuation
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1.
QE
1,300
?
2.
3.
.. –.. S&P500 10% SET Index 1,600 5%
- FOMC QE - “”
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Ebola - . 2015
1,600 () S&P500 All Time High
5
4.
15 .. 5
5.
Perfectionist ..
IMB COKE 6.5 2 (Tesco)
3% “ ” “ ”
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2015 Pantip.com 29 . 2557
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Pantip.com “Mr.Messenger” 10
MBA
() Account Analyst 2547 Securities Service
Order Management Officer
Mr.Messenger
Sell Side Wealth Management Officer
. () () (Selling Agent)
. 9 ()
Vice President Krungsri Exclusive ()