Integrating Energy Access
with other Energy and
Pollution Control Policies:
Implications for Air Quality
& Human Health
Shonali Pachauri
14 February 2014
CSIR, Pretoria, South Africa
Outline
• Current status of household access to modern
energy
• Consequences/ impacts of inadequate access
• Policy pathways to achieve universal access and
its implications
• Air quality and health implications of individual
versus combined policies to achieve WHO
guideline consistent PM 2.5 concentrations
Current Status of Modern Energy Access
>40% of the globe lacks access to clean cooking
>20% of the globe lacks access to any electricity
Source: Pachauri et al. 2012, Chapter 19 GEA
Status of Electricity Access for Regions
with Least Access
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Sub-SaharanAfrica
South Asia East Asia & China
Millions of People
Total Population Increase 1970-1990
Incremental Population Electrified 1970-1990
Total Population Increase 1990-2008
Incremental Population Electrified 1990-2008
• The pace of electrification
across time and regions has
been very uneven
• China electrified its entire
population over a few
decades. Thailand connected
over 0.4 million new
customers annually over a
period of 5 years
• In SSA the growth in
population, particularly in rural
areas, still outpaces the rate of
new connections
Source: Pachauri et al. 2012, Chapter 19 GEA
Dependence on Biomass for Cooking &
Heating
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2000 2009
Po
pu
lati
on
in
Mil
lio
ns
Dep
en
den
t o
n B
iom
as
s
Sub-Saharan Africa India
China Rest of Developing Asia
Indonesia Latin America & Caribbean
North Africa & Middle East
• The number of people dependent on biomass alone has declined from 2.8 billion in 2000 to 2.7 billion in 2009, largely due to reduced dependence in China
• However, in addition to these people continue to depend on coal and charcoal, so over 3 billion people still depend on solid fuels today
• In rural areas, dependence on solid fuels remains almost unchanged over the last decade in many developing countries
Source: Pachauri et al. 2012, Chapter 19 GEA
Major Issues Associated with a Lack
of Electricity Access
• Over 85% of those lacking electricity today live in rural Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. This lack of power impairs these populations ability to enjoy
Private Benefits:
-Household Lighting
-Communications & Entertainment
-Thermal Comfort
-Other Appliances
Enhanced Income Generation Options:
-Mechanical Power
-Microenterprises
Community Services:
-Public Lighting
-Health (refrigeration for vaccines)
-Education
Source: Pachauri et al. 2012, Chapter 19 GEA
Negative Consequences of Solid
Fuel Dependence • Social costs
– ~4 million premature deaths a year from household air pollution
– Between 1 to 5 billion women-hours lost annually in fuel collection
• Impacts on livelihood
– Limited productive hours in the day
– Limited work and business possibilities
• Environmental impacts
– Local forest, land and soil degradation
– CO2 emissions if biomass is unsustainably harvested
– Emissions of non-CO2 GHG and aerosols with higher GWP
– Growing evidence of strong climate impacts of black carbon (soot)
7
Source: Pachauri et al. 2012, Chapter 19 GEA
Without New Efforts Clean Cooking
Access will Worsen by 2030
Source: Pachauri et al. 2013
Population Dependent on Solid Fuels
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Base 2005 No new policies2030
50% FuelSubsidy 2030
Microfinance@15% only 2030
Microfinance@15% + 50%Fuel Subsidy
2030
Po
pu
lati
on
Dep
end
ent
on
So
lid F
uel
s in
Bill
ion
s
New Combinations of Policies
Needed for Modern Cooking Access Fuel subsidies coupled with grants or
microfinance schemes that make cheap credit
available for the purchase of new stoves are
most effective
Peo
ple
gain
ing
acce
ss to
mod
ern
ener
gy c
arrie
rs
An additional 200
million without
access by 2030
Subsidies alone
reduce dependence
by one-third
Microfinance
alone not very
effective
Source: Pachauri et al. 2013
9
Changes in GHG Emissions Due to
Access Policies by Region
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
South Asia Pacific Asia Sub-Saharan Africa
GH
G E
mis
sio
ns (
Gt
CO
2-e
q)
2005 2030 No New Policies 2030 Universal Access
Net Impacts on emissions are negligible
Source: Pachauri et al. 2013
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2005 2030
Mill
ion
s o
f d
eath
s
ALRI in children <5 COPD in women>30
COPD in men>30 Lung cancer in adults
Ischaemic heart disease in adults
Health Impacts of Access to Modern
Cooking in AFR, SAS & PAS
Over 1 million
lives can be
saved annually
Source: Riahi et al., 2012, Chapter 17, GEA.
Policies to Achieve WHO Guidelines
Consistent Particulate Emissions Levels
• WHO standards set to minimize health impacts
(10 mg/m3 for long-term PM2.5 concentration)
• Most recent GBD estimates for 2010 –
– 3.2 million premature deaths or 76 million
DALYs from outdoor air pollution
– 3.5 million premature deaths or 116 million
DALYs from household air pollution
• Traditional approaches have been insular i.e.
– Ambient air quality legislation
– Climate mitigation
– Energy access policies
Global PM2.5 concentrations ~30.4 µg/m3 Global PM2.5 concentrations ~50.3 µg/m3
(a)
Global PM2.5 concentrations ~34.0 µg/m3
(b)
Global PM2.5 concentrations ~26.0 µg/m3
(c)
Global PM2.5 concentrations ~15.7 µg/m3
(d)
Global PM2.5 concentrations ~12.3 µg/m3
(e)
Source: Rao et al, 2013
Global PM 2.5 concentations in 2005
GEA: PM2.5 concentrations (2005)
GEA approach:
Emissions inventories (GAINS)
Present and planned legislation (GAINS-MESSAGE)
Energy system changes and climate-pollution policies (MESSAGE)
Atmospheric concentrations and dispersion (TM5/JRC)
Global PM2.5 concentrations ~30.4 µg/m3 Global PM2.5 concentrations ~50.3 µg/m3
(a)
Global PM2.5 concentrations ~34.0 µg/m3
(b)
Global PM2.5 concentrations ~26.0 µg/m3
(c)
Global PM2.5 concentrations ~15.7 µg/m3
(d)
Global PM2.5 concentrations ~12.3 µg/m3
(e)
GEA: Baseline and CLE
PM2.5 concentrations (2030)
Global PM 2.5 concentations in 2030
Alternate Scenarios - Baseline
Source: Rao et al, 2013
Global PM2.5 concentrations ~30.4 µg/m3 Global PM2.5 concentrations ~50.3 µg/m3
(a)
Global PM2.5 concentrations ~34.0 µg/m3
(b)
Global PM2.5 concentrations ~26.0 µg/m3
(c)
Global PM2.5 concentrations ~15.7 µg/m3
(d)
Global PM2.5 concentrations ~12.3 µg/m3
(e)
GEA:
Stringent climate policy + CLE
PM2.5 concentrations (2030)
Source: Rao et al, 2013
Global PM 2.5 concentations in 2030
CLE + Stringent Climate Policy
Global PM2.5 concentrations ~30.4 µg/m3 Global PM2.5 concentrations ~50.3 µg/m3
(a)
Global PM2.5 concentrations ~34.0 µg/m3
(b)
Global PM2.5 concentrations ~26.0 µg/m3
(c)
Global PM2.5 concentrations ~15.7 µg/m3
(d)
Global PM2.5 concentrations ~12.3 µg/m3
(e)
GEA: Baseline and stringent air pollution legislation
PM2.5 concentrations (2030)
Source: Rao et al, 2013
Global PM 2.5 concentations in 2030
Stringent Air Pollution Policy
Global PM2.5 concentrations ~30.4 µg/m3 Global PM2.5 concentrations ~50.3 µg/m3
(a)
Global PM2.5 concentrations ~34.0 µg/m3
(b)
Global PM2.5 concentrations ~26.0 µg/m3
(c)
Global PM2.5 concentrations ~15.7 µg/m3
(d)
Global PM2.5 concentrations ~12.3 µg/m3
(e)
GEA: Stringent climate policy
+ stringent pollution policy
+ universal access
PM2.5 concentrations (2030)
Source: Rao et al, 2013
Global PM 2.5 concentations in 2030
Stringent Air Pollution & Climate Policy
+ Universal Household Access
Estimated Health Impacts in Sub-
Saharan Africa till 2030
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
FLE CLE Climate & CLE Climate & SLE &Access
2005 2030
Dis
abili
ty A
dju
sted
Lif
e Y
ears
(D
ALY
s) in
Mill
ion
s
Source: Rao et al, 2013
Takeaway Messages
• Combination of interventions/ policies required to
achieve even single goals
• Integration across multiple policy domains makes
for more effective policies
• Need for multi-criteria methodologies for
evaluating the costs and benefits of combined
policies
IIASA Energy-ENACT (Energy
Access Tool)
http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ene/ENACT/AccessTool.html
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