Integrating Energy Access with other Energy and …2014/02/14 · Source: Pachauri et al. 2013 9...

Integrating Energy Access

with other Energy and

Pollution Control Policies:

Implications for Air Quality

& Human Health

Shonali Pachauri

14 February 2014

CSIR, Pretoria, South Africa

Outline

• Current status of household access to modern

energy

• Consequences/ impacts of inadequate access

• Policy pathways to achieve universal access and

its implications

• Air quality and health implications of individual

versus combined policies to achieve WHO

guideline consistent PM 2.5 concentrations

Current Status of Modern Energy Access

>40% of the globe lacks access to clean cooking

>20% of the globe lacks access to any electricity

Source: Pachauri et al. 2012, Chapter 19 GEA

Status of Electricity Access for Regions

with Least Access

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Sub-SaharanAfrica

South Asia East Asia & China

Millions of People

Total Population Increase 1970-1990

Incremental Population Electrified 1970-1990

Total Population Increase 1990-2008

Incremental Population Electrified 1990-2008

• The pace of electrification

across time and regions has

been very uneven

• China electrified its entire

population over a few

decades. Thailand connected

over 0.4 million new

customers annually over a

period of 5 years

• In SSA the growth in

population, particularly in rural

areas, still outpaces the rate of

new connections


Dependence on Biomass for Cooking &

Heating

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2000 2009

Po

pu

lati

on

in

Mil

lio

ns

Dep

en

den

t o

n B

iom

as

s

Sub-Saharan Africa India

China Rest of Developing Asia

Indonesia Latin America & Caribbean

North Africa & Middle East

• The number of people dependent on biomass alone has declined from 2.8 billion in 2000 to 2.7 billion in 2009, largely due to reduced dependence in China

• However, in addition to these people continue to depend on coal and charcoal, so over 3 billion people still depend on solid fuels today

• In rural areas, dependence on solid fuels remains almost unchanged over the last decade in many developing countries


Major Issues Associated with a Lack

of Electricity Access

• Over 85% of those lacking electricity today live in rural Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. This lack of power impairs these populations ability to enjoy

Private Benefits:

-Household Lighting

-Communications & Entertainment

-Thermal Comfort

-Other Appliances

Enhanced Income Generation Options:

-Mechanical Power

-Microenterprises

Community Services:

-Public Lighting

-Health (refrigeration for vaccines)

-Education


Negative Consequences of Solid

Fuel Dependence • Social costs

– ~4 million premature deaths a year from household air pollution

– Between 1 to 5 billion women-hours lost annually in fuel collection

• Impacts on livelihood

– Limited productive hours in the day

– Limited work and business possibilities

• Environmental impacts

– Local forest, land and soil degradation

– CO2 emissions if biomass is unsustainably harvested

– Emissions of non-CO2 GHG and aerosols with higher GWP

– Growing evidence of strong climate impacts of black carbon (soot)

7


Without New Efforts Clean Cooking

Access will Worsen by 2030

Source: Pachauri et al. 2013

Population Dependent on Solid Fuels

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Base 2005 No new policies2030

50% FuelSubsidy 2030

Microfinance@15% only 2030

Microfinance@15% + 50%Fuel Subsidy

2030

Po

pu

lati

on

Dep

end

ent

on

So

lid F

uel

s in

Bill

ion

s

New Combinations of Policies

Needed for Modern Cooking Access Fuel subsidies coupled with grants or

microfinance schemes that make cheap credit

available for the purchase of new stoves are

most effective

Peo

ple

gain

ing

acce

ss to

mod

ern

ener

gy c

arrie

rs

An additional 200

million without

access by 2030

Subsidies alone

reduce dependence

by one-third

Microfinance

alone not very

effective


9

Changes in GHG Emissions Due to

Access Policies by Region

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

South Asia Pacific Asia Sub-Saharan Africa

GH

G E

mis

sio

ns (

Gt

CO

2-e

q)

2005 2030 No New Policies 2030 Universal Access

Net Impacts on emissions are negligible


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2005 2030

Mill

ion

s o

f d

eath

s

ALRI in children <5 COPD in women>30

COPD in men>30 Lung cancer in adults

Ischaemic heart disease in adults

Health Impacts of Access to Modern

Cooking in AFR, SAS & PAS

Over 1 million

lives can be

saved annually

Source: Riahi et al., 2012, Chapter 17, GEA.

Policies to Achieve WHO Guidelines

Consistent Particulate Emissions Levels

• WHO standards set to minimize health impacts

(10 mg/m3 for long-term PM2.5 concentration)

• Most recent GBD estimates for 2010 –

– 3.2 million premature deaths or 76 million

DALYs from outdoor air pollution

– 3.5 million premature deaths or 116 million

DALYs from household air pollution

• Traditional approaches have been insular i.e.

– Ambient air quality legislation

– Climate mitigation

– Energy access policies

Global PM2.5 concentrations ~30.4 µg/m3 Global PM2.5 concentrations ~50.3 µg/m3

(a)

Global PM2.5 concentrations ~34.0 µg/m3

(b)


(c)


(d)


(e)

Source: Rao et al, 2013

Global PM 2.5 concentations in 2005

GEA: PM2.5 concentrations (2005)

GEA approach:

Emissions inventories (GAINS)

Present and planned legislation (GAINS-MESSAGE)

Energy system changes and climate-pollution policies (MESSAGE)

Atmospheric concentrations and dispersion (TM5/JRC)


(a)


(b)


(c)


(d)


(e)

GEA: Baseline and CLE

PM2.5 concentrations (2030)


Alternate Scenarios - Baseline



(a)


(b)


(c)


(d)


(e)

GEA:

Stringent climate policy + CLE




CLE + Stringent Climate Policy


(a)


(b)


(c)


(d)


(e)

GEA: Baseline and stringent air pollution legislation




Stringent Air Pollution Policy


(a)


(b)


(c)


(d)


(e)

GEA: Stringent climate policy

+ stringent pollution policy

+ universal access




Stringent Air Pollution & Climate Policy

+ Universal Household Access

Estimated Health Impacts in Sub-

Saharan Africa till 2030

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

FLE CLE Climate & CLE Climate & SLE &Access

2005 2030

Dis

abili

ty A

dju

sted

Lif

e Y

ears

(D

ALY

s) in

Mill

ion

s


Takeaway Messages

• Combination of interventions/ policies required to

achieve even single goals

• Integration across multiple policy domains makes

for more effective policies

• Need for multi-criteria methodologies for

evaluating the costs and benefits of combined

policies

IIASA Energy-ENACT (Energy

Access Tool)

http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ene/ENACT/AccessTool.html




Integrating Energy Access with other Energy and …2014/02/14 · Source: Pachauri et al. 2013 9...

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