Agenda
Who are Mintel?
Free-from food – presentation, Q&A
Meat-reduction trends – presentation, Q&A
2
Mintel Food & Drink Intelligence
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Free-from food
Agenda
The market:
explosive growth
Competitive
landscape: duopoly in
dairy-/lactose-free,
fragmented gluten-free
The consumer:
health and variety,
not intolerances
What next?
Slowing growth
ahead
The market
6
Mintel definition:
Foods that are manufactured and
targeted specifically at consumers
who suffer from food intolerances
and/or food allergies or who are
following avoidance diets.
For example pasta and bread
tailored to cater for a gluten-free
diet.
Gluten-free loaf - Yes Gluten-free rice cakes - No
Gluten-free dairy yogurt - NoLactose-free dairy yogurt - Yes
Defining free-from
7 Source: Based on IRI/Mintel
Free-from sales enjoy explosive growth
UK RETAIL VALUE SALES OF FREE-FROM FOOD AND DRINK, 2012-17
8
- Celebrity support
- Awareness of intolerances
- Health halo
A virtuous circle of factors
9
- Celebrity support
- Awareness of intolerances
- Health halo
- More supermarket shelf-space
- Gain share of users’ baskets
- Lower barrier for non-users
A virtuous circle of factors
10
- Celebrity support
- Awareness of intolerances
- Health halo
- More supermarket shelf-space
- Gain share of users’ baskets
- Lower barrier for non-users
- Attracted new brands to market
A virtuous circle of factors
11
- Celebrity support
- Awareness of intolerances
- Health halo
- More supermarket shelf-space
- Gain share of users’ baskets
- Lower barrier for non-users
- Attracted new brands to market
- Brands forge a mainstream
proposition
A virtuous circle of factors
12 Source: Based on IRI/Mintel
Dairy-/lactose-free fuels growth
UK RETAIL VALUE SALES OF FREE-FROM FOOD AND DRINK, 2012-17
13 Source: Mintel GNPD
Allergen claims have shot ahead
SHARE OF NEW UK FOOD LAUNCHES BY CLAIM, 2012-17
14 Source: Mintel GNPD
…fuelled by gluten-free
SHARE OF NEW UK FOOD LAUNCHES BY CLAIM, 2012-17
15 Source: Mintel GNPD
Dairy-free lags noticeably
SHARE OF NEW UK FOOD LAUNCHES BY CLAIM, 2012-17
16 Source: Mintel GNPD
Lactose-claims remain rare
SHARE OF NEW UK FOOD LAUNCHES BY CLAIM, 2012-17
17 Source: Mintel GNPD
Gluten-free claims adopted widely
18 Source: Mintel GNPD
Oats lead, bread lags for gluten-free claims
SHARE OF GLUTEN-FREE OF TOTAL LAUNCHES IN THE CATEGORY, 2012 AND 2017
19
Dairy-free launches less common
SHARE OF DAIRY-FREE OF TOTAL LAUNCHES IN THE CATEGORY, 2017
20 Source: Mintel GNPD
Heavy plant-based NPD in milk
SHARE OF DAIRY-FREE OF TOTAL LAUNCHES IN THE CATEGORY, 2012 AND 2017
Competitive landscape
22
Danone completed the acquisition of WhiteWave Foods in April 2017
52 weeks ending 16 September 2017
Source: Based on IRI/Mintel
Alpro and Lactofree dominate dairy-/lactose-free
23
*Includes total sales of Nairn’s
52 weeks ending 16 September 2017
Source: Based on IRI/Mintel
Fragmented gluten-/wheat-free landscape
24
Nestlé Warburton’s Napolina Mr Kipling
Breakfast cereals Bread Pasta Cakes
Category leaders move into gluten-free
25
Tesco 60+ products
Incl. lactose-free dairy
and Finest
Asda
90+ products
Morrisons
70+ products
Sainsbury’s
100+ products
Co-op
40+ products
AldiWaitrose
20+ products
M&S
60+ products
Own-label has extensive free-from offering
The Consumer
27
Fieldwork period: September 2017
Base: 2,000 internet users aged 16+
Source: Lightspeed/Mintel
Dairy avoidance: 18%
“Which of these foods/ingredients do you or other members of your household avoid?”
28
Fieldwork period: September 2017
Base: 2,000 internet users aged 16+
Source: Lightspeed/Mintel
Avoidance is fuelled by healthy lifestyles
“Which of these foods/ingredients do you or other members of your household avoid?”
29
Fieldwork period: September 2017
Base: 2,000 internet users aged 16+
Source: Lightspeed/Mintel
Avoidance is fuelled by healthy lifestyles
“Which of these foods/ingredients do you or other members of your household avoid?”
British Nutrition Foundation
estimates 5% of UK
population suffer a degree of
lactose maldigestion
30
Fieldwork period: September 2017
Base: 2,000 internet users aged 16+
Source: Lightspeed/Mintel
Avoidance is fuelled by healthy lifestyles
“Which of these foods/ingredients do you or other members of your household avoid?”
31
Fieldwork period: September 2017
Base: 2,000 internet users aged 16+
Source: Lightspeed/Mintel
Gluten-free leads in usage
“Which of these types of free-from food and drink have you eaten/drunk or bought in the last 6 months?”
32
Fieldwork period: September 2017
Base: 2,000 internet users aged 16+
Source: Lightspeed/Mintel
Gluten-free core users/buyers
“Which of these types of free-from food and drink have you eaten/drunk or bought in the last 6 months?”
33
Fieldwork period: September 2017
Base: 2,000 internet users aged 16+
Source: Lightspeed/Mintel
Dairy substitutes core users/buyers
“Which of these types of free-from food and drink have you eaten/drunk or bought in the last 6 months?”
34
Fieldwork period: September 2017
Base: 2,000 internet users aged 16+
Source: Lightspeed/Mintel
Lactose-free dairy products core users/buyers
“Which of these types of free-from food and drink have you eaten/drunk or bought in the last 6 months?”
35
Most likely to say:
“Healthy eating is a way of life”
“Hearing about the latest health-boosting
foods in the media would encourage me to
try them”
“I’d describe myself as a foodie”
“Look for new foods/flavours to try all/most
of the time”
These groups are top foodies
36
Fieldwork period: September 2017
Base: 582 internet users aged 16+ who have eaten/drunk free-from food and drink in the last 6 months
Source: Lightspeed/Mintel
Health and taste fuel uptake
"Why do you eat/drink free-from food and drink?”
37
Fieldwork period: September 2017
Base: 582 internet users aged 16+ who have eaten/drunk free-from food and drink in the last 6 months
Source: Lightspeed/Mintel
Health and taste fuel uptake
"Why do you eat/drink free-from food and drink?”
38
Fieldwork period: September 2017
Base: 582 internet users aged 16+ who have eaten/drunk free-from food and drink in the last 6 months
Source: Lightspeed/Mintel
Health and taste fuel uptake
"Why do you eat/drink free-from food and drink?”
39
Fieldwork period: September 2017
Base: 582 internet users aged 16+ who have eaten/drunk free-from food and drink in the last 6 months
Source: Lightspeed/Mintel
Health and taste fuel uptake
"Why do you eat/drink free-from food and drink?”
40
Fieldwork period: September 2017
Base: 1,418 internet users aged 16+ who have not eaten/drunk free-from food and drink in the last 6 months
Source: Lightspeed/Mintel
Not needing free-from is main barrier
"Why don’t you eat/drink free-from food and drink?”
The good news is,
people don’t have
negative perceptions.
43
”Natural source of vitamin E
and manganese”“Carefully selected coconuts
- delicious rich taste and
creaminess”
“30% less sugars and
saturated fats than ice
cream”
“Five simple organic
ingredients”
“At least 70% less
saturated fat than the
leading dairy ice cream”
“A refreshing alternative to
milk”
“Creamy texture, nutrient
goodies”
Plenish Organic
Hazelnut M*lk
Alpro Coconut Ice
Cream
Booja-Booja Dairy
Free Ice Cream
Rude Health
Organic Coconut
Drink
A rounded proposition – health and taste
44
High in protein, source of fibre Buckwheat, teff, corn and
maize. 99 calories per
wrap, low in fat, high in
fibre
“Delectable chocolate
smothered rice crispies with a
layer of rich caramel topped
with smooth milk chocolate”
“All butter cookies with silky-
smooth milk, dark and white
Belgian chocolate for
intense taste and chunky
texture. Half coated in
Belgian chocolate”
Sainsbury's Red
Lentil Penne
Bfree Multigrain
Wraps
M&S Made Without
Wheat Extremely
Chocolatey
Millionaire's Caramel
Crispie Mini Bites
Tesco Finest Free
From Triple
Chocolate Cookies
A rounded proposition – health and taste
What next?
46
UK RETAIL VALUE SALES OF FREE-FROM FOOD AND DRINK, 2012-22
Market Size and Forecast
Source: Based on IRI/Mintel
(£m)
718
Best case (£m)1,002
Worst case (£m)796
Mintel forecast (£m)899
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Market
valu
e (
£m
)
95%
Confidence intervals
90%
70%
50%
Actual Forecast
Est.
0
47
- Income squeeze - 47% of buyers
spend less on FF when money is
tight
- Limited scope to grow in existing
users’ baskets. New entrants must
win sales from established players.
- Media visibility? Media backlash?
- Health concerns: 44% of people
put off FF products high in sugar,
37% by artificial ingredients =>
Need to be best in class
Threats
48
- Flexitarianism/ethical concerns –
but so far meat is the bad guy
- Income squeeze: 41% of FF users
deem a premium FF ready meal a
good alternative to eating out
- A proposition beyond free-from:
- flavour variety
- health – 54% of users deem
FF foods with additional health
claims more appealing than
those without
Opportunities
Summary
Explosive growth
fuelled by a
virtuous circle of
factors.
A fragmented
gluten-free market,
a near duopoly in
lactose-/dairy-free.
Both are hotly
competed.
Main motivations
for consumers:
perceived
healthiness and
variety.
Slowing but robust
growth projected.
A rounded
proposition is vital.
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The Meat Reduction TrendEmma Clifford
Associate Director – Food and Drink UK
Agenda
The consumer Meat-free foods The high-protein
trend
Conclusions
The consumer
53
Spending on meat and poultry
£12.3 billion in 2017 1.4% year on year
15% of total spend on in-home food
£19 per person per month
54
A nation of meat eaters
Meat eaters91%
Non-meat eaters
9%
55
A nation of meat eaters
19% of 16-24s
25% of female 16-24s
56
Reduced28%
Non-meat eaters
9%
A nation of meat eaters – but over one in four have cut back
57
Reduced28%
Interested in reducing
14%
Non-meat eaters
9%
…and one in seven are interested
58
Reduced28%
Interested in reducing
14%
NOT interested in
reducing 48%
Non-meat eaters
9%
Less than half have no interest in cutting back
59
The rise of the “flexitarian”
(AKA meat limiters/reducers)
The flexitarian consumer:
• Women
• 25-34s
• ABs
• High-earners
• People living in London
• Consumers most likely to buy into
free-from foods (eg gluten-free)
“Foodie” consumers
The “foodie” trend has boosted
interest in meat reduction
60
Healthy eating
7percentage points year on year
Try to eat healthily most
or all of the time
63%
61
Why are people cutting back?
49
29
24
24
19
16
16
15
11
11
10
It's better for your health
Weight management
Animal welfare concerns
Better for the environment
Concerns over antibiotics in meat
Improved meat-free options
It's cheaper
Food safety concerns over meat
Quicker to cook
More nutritious
Tastes better%
%
62
Why are people cutting back?
49
29
24
24
19
16
16
15
11
11
10
It's better for your health
Weight management
Animal welfare concerns
Better for the environment
Concerns over antibiotics in meat
Improved meat-free options
It's cheaper
Food safety concerns over meat
Quicker to cook
More nutritious
Tastes better%
“
“
“
”
”
”
%
63
Why are people cutting back?
49
29
24
24
19
16
16
15
11
11
10
It's better for your health
Weight management
Animal welfare concerns
Better for the environment
Concerns over antibiotics in meat
Improved meat-free options
It's cheaper
Food safety concerns over meat
Quicker to cook
More nutritious
Tastes better%
%
64
Why are people cutting back?
49
29
24
24
19
16
16
15
11
11
10
It's better for your health
Weight management
Animal welfare concerns
Better for the environment
Concerns over antibiotics in meat
Improved meat-free options
It's cheaper
Food safety concerns over meat
Quicker to cook
More nutritious
Tastes better%
%
65
Why are people cutting back?
49
29
24
24
19
16
16
15
11
11
10
It's better for your health
Weight management
Animal welfare concerns
Better for the environment
Concerns over antibiotics in meat
Improved meat-free options
It's cheaper
Food safety concerns over meat
Quicker to cook
More nutritious
Tastes better%
%
66
Why are people cutting back?
49
29
24
24
19
16
16
15
11
11
10
It's better for your health
Weight management
Animal welfare concerns
Better for the environment
Concerns over antibiotics in meat
Improved meat-free options
It's cheaper
Food safety concerns over meat
Quicker to cook
More nutritious
Tastes better%
%
67
Why are people cutting back?
49
29
24
24
19
16
16
15
11
11
10
It's better for your health
Weight management
Animal welfare concerns
Better for the environment
Concerns over antibiotics in meat
Improved meat-free options
It's cheaper
Food safety concerns over meat
Quicker to cook
More nutritious
Tastes better%
%
68
Why are people cutting back?
49
29
24
24
19
16
16
15
11
11
10
It's better for your health
Weight management
Animal welfare concerns
Better for the environment
Concerns over antibiotics in meat
Improved meat-free options
It's cheaper
Food safety concerns over meat
Quicker to cook
More nutritious
Tastes better%
%
69
The impact of the media
29%“Advice from healthy eating
bloggers/vloggers is encouraging me
to reduce the amount of meat I eat.”
39%“Meat reduction campaigns have
made me more aware of the benefits
of eating less meat.”
Among meat reducers:
70
Veganism remains very niche
36% of meat reducers
“Plant-based vegetarian products are
more appealing than vegetarian
products made with eggs/dairy.”
1% of adults are vegan
360% increase in numbers over the
past 10 years (Vegan Society).
20% of under-35s
Have tried to follow a vegan diet
Strong appeal of vegan food
71
Consumers are seeking out more plant-based foods
➢ Naturalness
➢ Positive nutritionA feelgood factor
Meat-free foods
73
Definition
Products designed specifically as a substitute for meat
➢ includes ready meals, sausages, burgers, shaped
products, deli, ingredients pastry products and snacks.
➢ often made from textured vegetable protein such as soy
that imitate the texture, flavour and appearance of certain
types of meat.
➢ they can also be made within plant-based ingredients
which do not try to imitate meat (eg vegetable or bean
burgers)
74
600 591567
539559
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
£m
10%
The meat-free foods market was in decline
75
600 591567
539559
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
£m
10% 4%
The meat-free foods market was in decline➢ Meat reduction trend
➢ An innovation push
➢ High-profile marketing
76
The meat-free foods market was in decline
559572
589608
635658
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
£m
18%
Ongoing growth forecast
77
Ongoing growth forecast – the virtuous circle
Growth
Moreinvestment
from companies
Improved ranges, more shelf space
and visibility
Improved perceptions
from consumers
New users and more repeat
purchase
78
Quorn 25%
Linda McCartney
5%
Cauldron Foods
4%Other brands
19%
Own-label47%
Retail market value share
79
Quorn 25%
Linda McCartney
5%
Cauldron Foods
4%Other brands
19%
Own-label47%
Retail market value share ➢ Almost 90 products
➢ £8 million on adspend
➢ Olympic brand ambassadors
80 Source: Based on IRI/Mintel *i52 weeks ending 28 Jan 2017
Meat-free brands enjoy rapid annual growth in value sales*
6%
28%
22%
33%
81
Overall usage of meat-free foods
50
38
35
32
26
25
22
Any
Vegetable-based
Quorn-based
Bean-based
Nut-based
Other soya-based
Tofu-based
%
82
Frequency of usage remains low
50
15
17
12
10
10
9
Any
Vegetable-based
Quorn-based
Bean-based
Nut-based
Other soya-based
Tofu-based
%
Consumers eating meat-free foods at least once a week
➢ Lots of growth
potential
➢ The market is still
being held back
➢ Challenges to
overcome
83 Mintel GNPD
A bland, unexciting image
50% of adults
“There is a lack of exciting flavours in meat
substitutes”
The Tofoo Co. Indian
Spiced Organic Tofu. Cauldron Falafel Burgers
inspired by an authentic
Middle Eastern recipe
Asda Katsu Curry Melts
A focus on exciting, “foodie”
recipes is needed
84
Brands should look to foodservice for inspiration
Sweet Potato, Falafel and
Smashed Beets Veggie
Box
Healthy fast food Indulgent fast food
Deep-fried seitan ‘chicken’
burger
High-end Restaurants
Hakkasan's truffle caviar
and jade tofu with morel
bamboo and gingko nut
85 Mintel GNPD
A need for transparency to build trust
35% of adults
“The ingredients in meat
substitutes concern me”
➢ Short ingredients lists
➢ Natural, “kitchen
cupboard” ingredients
➢ Recipes that could be
made at home
A more natural,
trustworthy
image
86
Positive nutrition needs to take centre stage in innovation
Gosh! Beetroot, Kale
and Quinoa BurgersHeck Super Greens
Veggie Balls:
Quinoa, Spinach,
Kale and Ginger
Biona Organic
Sweet Potato
Buckwheat Burgers
with Pumpkin Seeds
87
Brands should be more vocal about their benefits
41% of meat reducers
“Meat-free brands that provide information about the
benefits of reducing meat consumption appeal to me.”
The Fry Family Food
Co. Quinoa & Brown
Rice Protein Burgers
Brands should
look to
“storytelling”
88
Flexitarianism being harnessed in processed meat
53%“Meat products with less meat and more
vegetables/beans/pulses appeal to me.”
Debbie & Andrew's
Beef Flexilicious
Super Sausages
Kerry Foods’ The
Crafty Carnivore
#Funky Flexitarian
Smokey Pork n'
Bombay Beet Bangers
The high-protein trend
90
Reduces importance for meat to deliver protein
47% of under-35s
“It's getting easier to get the protein I need from snacks (eg yogurt and cereal)”
(compared to 39% average)
91
Multiple benefits tap into consumers’ holistic approach to health
Supports
a healthy
lifestyle
Provides
sustained
energy
Keeps you
fuller for
longer
Supports
muscle
growth
Gives an
energy
boost
Increases
stamina
Supports
bone
health
Helps in
managing
weightPerceived benefits of
high-protein
food/drink
92
Usage is heavily skewed towards the younger generation
29% of adults have eaten/drunk high-protein products
rises to 50% of under-35s
93
4.3
2.1
3.54.2
2.8
9.79.0
8.5 8.7
5.8
Snacks Breakfastcereals
Dairy Soup Meals
%
2014 2017
A surge in high-protein innovation
Share of new UK food launches carrying a high-protein claim, by category
94
4.3
2.1
3.54.2
2.8
9.79.0
8.5 8.7
5.8
Snacks Breakfastcereals
Dairy Soup Meals
%
2014 2017
A surge in high-protein innovation
Share of new UK food launches carrying a high-protein claim, by category
95
Brands shouting about their protein content
Arla Protein
Greens
Eatlean Protein
Cheese
The Collective
Great Dairy Pro-
Yo High Protein
Strawberry
Yogurt
W! Wheyhey
Vanilla Protein
Ice Cream
96
More activity in high-protein bread
37% are interested in high-protein bread
rises to 45% of under-35s
Warburtons Thin Seeded
Protein BagelsHovis Lower Carb
breadMorrisons Protein
Rolls
97
Brands embracing plants proteins
High-protein food launches which were vegan:
11% in 2013
16% in 2017
➢ Still creates a lot of standout
➢ Lots of room for potential development
Power of plants + high-protein = winning formula
98
Brands embracing plants proteins
Graze
Protein Kick
Alpro Go On Glorious! Super
SoupsNairn's Organic
Super Seeded
Oatcakes
Conclusions
100
Not only here to
stay, but likely to
gain momentum,
as awareness of
the benefits
builds amid high
levels of media
exposure.
Meat reduction Meat-free foods High-protein
Final thoughts….
A trend not losing
momentum, but
the market is
becoming more
saturated. But still
ripe opportunities
for more plant
proteins – just the
tip of the iceberg!
A very positive
turnaround for a
struggling market.
But innovation is
needed to
overcome barriers
and reach its full
potential. Now is
a great time for
action.
mintel.com
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THE WORLD’S LEADING
MARKET INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Our expert analysis of the highest quality data and
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Anders Mogensen
Account Director
E-mail: [email protected]
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Kiti Soininen
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Associate Director – UK Food &
Drink Research
E-mail: [email protected]
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