I Am a Front Cover · 2018-02-09 · Mintel Reports Quantitative & qualitative market data +...

Agenda

Who are Mintel?

Free-from food – presentation, Q&A

Meat-reduction trends – presentation, Q&A

2

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Free-from food

Agenda

The market:

explosive growth

Competitive

landscape: duopoly in

dairy-/lactose-free,

fragmented gluten-free

The consumer:

health and variety,

not intolerances

What next?

Slowing growth

ahead

The market

6

Mintel definition:

Foods that are manufactured and

targeted specifically at consumers

who suffer from food intolerances

and/or food allergies or who are

following avoidance diets.

For example pasta and bread

tailored to cater for a gluten-free

diet.

Gluten-free loaf - Yes Gluten-free rice cakes - No

Gluten-free dairy yogurt - NoLactose-free dairy yogurt - Yes

Defining free-from

7 Source: Based on IRI/Mintel

Free-from sales enjoy explosive growth

UK RETAIL VALUE SALES OF FREE-FROM FOOD AND DRINK, 2012-17

8

- Celebrity support

- Awareness of intolerances

- Health halo

A virtuous circle of factors

9

- Celebrity support


- Health halo

- More supermarket shelf-space

- Gain share of users’ baskets

- Lower barrier for non-users


10

- Celebrity support


- Health halo




- Attracted new brands to market


11

- Celebrity support


- Health halo




- Attracted new brands to market

- Brands forge a mainstream

proposition


12 Source: Based on IRI/Mintel

Dairy-/lactose-free fuels growth


13 Source: Mintel GNPD

Allergen claims have shot ahead

SHARE OF NEW UK FOOD LAUNCHES BY CLAIM, 2012-17


…fuelled by gluten-free



Dairy-free lags noticeably



Lactose-claims remain rare



Gluten-free claims adopted widely


Oats lead, bread lags for gluten-free claims

SHARE OF GLUTEN-FREE OF TOTAL LAUNCHES IN THE CATEGORY, 2012 AND 2017

19

Dairy-free launches less common

SHARE OF DAIRY-FREE OF TOTAL LAUNCHES IN THE CATEGORY, 2017


Heavy plant-based NPD in milk

SHARE OF DAIRY-FREE OF TOTAL LAUNCHES IN THE CATEGORY, 2012 AND 2017

Competitive landscape

22

Danone completed the acquisition of WhiteWave Foods in April 2017

52 weeks ending 16 September 2017

Source: Based on IRI/Mintel

Alpro and Lactofree dominate dairy-/lactose-free

23

*Includes total sales of Nairn’s

52 weeks ending 16 September 2017


Fragmented gluten-/wheat-free landscape

24

Nestlé Warburton’s Napolina Mr Kipling

Breakfast cereals Bread Pasta Cakes

Category leaders move into gluten-free

25

Tesco 60+ products

Incl. lactose-free dairy

and Finest

Asda

90+ products

Morrisons

70+ products

Sainsbury’s

100+ products

Co-op

40+ products

AldiWaitrose

20+ products

M&S

60+ products

Own-label has extensive free-from offering

The Consumer

27

Fieldwork period: September 2017

Base: 2,000 internet users aged 16+

Source: Lightspeed/Mintel

Dairy avoidance: 18%

“Which of these foods/ingredients do you or other members of your household avoid?”

28




Avoidance is fuelled by healthy lifestyles


29






British Nutrition Foundation

estimates 5% of UK

population suffer a degree of

lactose maldigestion

30






31




Gluten-free leads in usage

“Which of these types of free-from food and drink have you eaten/drunk or bought in the last 6 months?”

32




Gluten-free core users/buyers


33




Dairy substitutes core users/buyers


34




Lactose-free dairy products core users/buyers


35

Most likely to say:

“Healthy eating is a way of life”

“Hearing about the latest health-boosting

foods in the media would encourage me to

try them”

“I’d describe myself as a foodie”

“Look for new foods/flavours to try all/most

of the time”

These groups are top foodies

36


Base: 582 internet users aged 16+ who have eaten/drunk free-from food and drink in the last 6 months


Health and taste fuel uptake

"Why do you eat/drink free-from food and drink?”

37






38






39






40


Base: 1,418 internet users aged 16+ who have not eaten/drunk free-from food and drink in the last 6 months


Not needing free-from is main barrier

"Why don’t you eat/drink free-from food and drink?”

The good news is,

people don’t have

negative perceptions.

41

Top brands don’t focus on allergens - Alpro

https://youtu.be/yW-aj7HWzXE

42

Top brands don’t focus on allergens - Genius

https://youtu.be/gjVI_6fHJ4Q

43

”Natural source of vitamin E

and manganese”“Carefully selected coconuts

- delicious rich taste and

creaminess”

“30% less sugars and

saturated fats than ice

cream”

“Five simple organic

ingredients”

“At least 70% less

saturated fat than the

leading dairy ice cream”

“A refreshing alternative to

milk”

“Creamy texture, nutrient

goodies”

Plenish Organic

Hazelnut M*lk

Alpro Coconut Ice

Cream

Booja-Booja Dairy

Free Ice Cream

Rude Health

Organic Coconut

Drink

A rounded proposition – health and taste

44

High in protein, source of fibre Buckwheat, teff, corn and

maize. 99 calories per

wrap, low in fat, high in

fibre

“Delectable chocolate

smothered rice crispies with a

layer of rich caramel topped

with smooth milk chocolate”

“All butter cookies with silky-

smooth milk, dark and white

Belgian chocolate for

intense taste and chunky

texture. Half coated in

Belgian chocolate”

Sainsbury's Red

Lentil Penne

Bfree Multigrain

Wraps

M&S Made Without

Wheat Extremely

Chocolatey

Millionaire's Caramel

Crispie Mini Bites

Tesco Finest Free

From Triple

Chocolate Cookies

A rounded proposition – health and taste

What next?

46


Market Size and Forecast


(£m)

718

Best case (£m)1,002

Worst case (£m)796

Mintel forecast (£m)899

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Market

valu

e (

£m

)

95%

Confidence intervals

90%

70%

50%

Actual Forecast

Est.

0

47

- Income squeeze - 47% of buyers

spend less on FF when money is

tight

- Limited scope to grow in existing

users’ baskets. New entrants must

win sales from established players.

- Media visibility? Media backlash?

- Health concerns: 44% of people

put off FF products high in sugar,

37% by artificial ingredients =>

Need to be best in class

Threats

48

- Flexitarianism/ethical concerns –

but so far meat is the bad guy

- Income squeeze: 41% of FF users

deem a premium FF ready meal a

good alternative to eating out

- A proposition beyond free-from:

- flavour variety

- health – 54% of users deem

FF foods with additional health

claims more appealing than

those without

Opportunities

Summary

Explosive growth

fuelled by a

virtuous circle of

factors.

A fragmented

gluten-free market,

a near duopoly in

lactose-/dairy-free.

Both are hotly

competed.

Main motivations

for consumers:

perceived

healthiness and

variety.

Slowing but robust

growth projected.

A rounded

proposition is vital.

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The Meat Reduction TrendEmma Clifford

Associate Director – Food and Drink UK

Agenda

The consumer Meat-free foods The high-protein

trend

Conclusions

The consumer

53

Spending on meat and poultry

£12.3 billion in 2017 1.4% year on year

15% of total spend on in-home food

£19 per person per month

54

A nation of meat eaters

Meat eaters91%

Non-meat eaters

9%

55

A nation of meat eaters

19% of 16-24s

25% of female 16-24s

56

Reduced28%

Non-meat eaters

9%

A nation of meat eaters – but over one in four have cut back

57

Reduced28%

Interested in reducing

14%

Non-meat eaters

9%

…and one in seven are interested

58

Reduced28%

Interested in reducing

14%

NOT interested in

reducing 48%

Non-meat eaters

9%

Less than half have no interest in cutting back

59

The rise of the “flexitarian”

(AKA meat limiters/reducers)

The flexitarian consumer:

• Women

• 25-34s

• ABs

• High-earners

• People living in London

• Consumers most likely to buy into

free-from foods (eg gluten-free)

“Foodie” consumers

The “foodie” trend has boosted

interest in meat reduction

60

Healthy eating

7percentage points year on year

Try to eat healthily most

or all of the time

63%

61

Why are people cutting back?

49

29

24

24

19

16

16

15

11

11

10

It's better for your health

Weight management

Animal welfare concerns

Better for the environment

Concerns over antibiotics in meat

Improved meat-free options

It's cheaper

Food safety concerns over meat

Quicker to cook

More nutritious

Tastes better%

%

62


49

29

24

24

19

16

16

15

11

11

10


Weight management





It's cheaper


Quicker to cook

More nutritious

Tastes better%

“

“

“

”

”

”

%

63


49

29

24

24

19

16

16

15

11

11

10


Weight management





It's cheaper


Quicker to cook

More nutritious

Tastes better%

%

64


49

29

24

24

19

16

16

15

11

11

10


Weight management





It's cheaper


Quicker to cook

More nutritious

Tastes better%

%

65


49

29

24

24

19

16

16

15

11

11

10


Weight management





It's cheaper


Quicker to cook

More nutritious

Tastes better%

%

66


49

29

24

24

19

16

16

15

11

11

10


Weight management





It's cheaper


Quicker to cook

More nutritious

Tastes better%

%

67


49

29

24

24

19

16

16

15

11

11

10


Weight management





It's cheaper


Quicker to cook

More nutritious

Tastes better%

%

68


49

29

24

24

19

16

16

15

11

11

10


Weight management





It's cheaper


Quicker to cook

More nutritious

Tastes better%

%

69

The impact of the media

29%“Advice from healthy eating

bloggers/vloggers is encouraging me

to reduce the amount of meat I eat.”

39%“Meat reduction campaigns have

made me more aware of the benefits

of eating less meat.”

Among meat reducers:

70

Veganism remains very niche

36% of meat reducers

“Plant-based vegetarian products are

more appealing than vegetarian

products made with eggs/dairy.”

1% of adults are vegan

360% increase in numbers over the

past 10 years (Vegan Society).

20% of under-35s

Have tried to follow a vegan diet

Strong appeal of vegan food

71

Consumers are seeking out more plant-based foods

➢ Naturalness

➢ Positive nutritionA feelgood factor

Meat-free foods

73

Definition

Products designed specifically as a substitute for meat

➢ includes ready meals, sausages, burgers, shaped

products, deli, ingredients pastry products and snacks.

➢ often made from textured vegetable protein such as soy

that imitate the texture, flavour and appearance of certain

types of meat.

➢ they can also be made within plant-based ingredients

which do not try to imitate meat (eg vegetable or bean

burgers)

74

600 591567

539559

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

£m

10%

The meat-free foods market was in decline

75

600 591567

539559

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

£m

10% 4%

The meat-free foods market was in decline➢ Meat reduction trend

➢ An innovation push

➢ High-profile marketing

76

The meat-free foods market was in decline

559572

589608

635658

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

£m

18%

Ongoing growth forecast

77

Ongoing growth forecast – the virtuous circle

Growth

Moreinvestment

from companies

Improved ranges, more shelf space

and visibility

Improved perceptions

from consumers

New users and more repeat

purchase

78

Quorn 25%

Linda McCartney

5%

Cauldron Foods

4%Other brands

19%

Own-label47%

Retail market value share

79

Quorn 25%

Linda McCartney

5%

Cauldron Foods

4%Other brands

19%

Own-label47%

Retail market value share ➢ Almost 90 products

➢ £8 million on adspend

➢ Olympic brand ambassadors

80 Source: Based on IRI/Mintel *i52 weeks ending 28 Jan 2017

Meat-free brands enjoy rapid annual growth in value sales*

6%

28%

22%

33%

81

Overall usage of meat-free foods

50

38

35

32

26

25

22

Any

Vegetable-based

Quorn-based

Bean-based

Nut-based

Other soya-based

Tofu-based

%

82

Frequency of usage remains low

50

15

17

12

10

10

9

Any

Vegetable-based

Quorn-based

Bean-based

Nut-based

Other soya-based

Tofu-based

%

Consumers eating meat-free foods at least once a week

➢ Lots of growth

potential

➢ The market is still

being held back

➢ Challenges to

overcome

83 Mintel GNPD

A bland, unexciting image

50% of adults

“There is a lack of exciting flavours in meat

substitutes”

The Tofoo Co. Indian

Spiced Organic Tofu. Cauldron Falafel Burgers

inspired by an authentic

Middle Eastern recipe

Asda Katsu Curry Melts

A focus on exciting, “foodie”

recipes is needed

84

Brands should look to foodservice for inspiration

Sweet Potato, Falafel and

Smashed Beets Veggie

Box

Healthy fast food Indulgent fast food

Deep-fried seitan ‘chicken’

burger

High-end Restaurants

Hakkasan's truffle caviar

and jade tofu with morel

bamboo and gingko nut

85 Mintel GNPD

A need for transparency to build trust

35% of adults

“The ingredients in meat

substitutes concern me”

➢ Short ingredients lists

➢ Natural, “kitchen

cupboard” ingredients

➢ Recipes that could be

made at home

A more natural,

trustworthy

image

86

Positive nutrition needs to take centre stage in innovation

Gosh! Beetroot, Kale

and Quinoa BurgersHeck Super Greens

Veggie Balls:

Quinoa, Spinach,

Kale and Ginger

Biona Organic

Sweet Potato

Buckwheat Burgers

with Pumpkin Seeds

87

Brands should be more vocal about their benefits

41% of meat reducers

“Meat-free brands that provide information about the

benefits of reducing meat consumption appeal to me.”

The Fry Family Food

Co. Quinoa & Brown

Rice Protein Burgers

Brands should

look to

“storytelling”

88

Flexitarianism being harnessed in processed meat

53%“Meat products with less meat and more

vegetables/beans/pulses appeal to me.”

Debbie & Andrew's

Beef Flexilicious

Super Sausages

Kerry Foods’ The

Crafty Carnivore

#Funky Flexitarian

Smokey Pork n'

Bombay Beet Bangers

The high-protein trend

90

Reduces importance for meat to deliver protein

47% of under-35s

“It's getting easier to get the protein I need from snacks (eg yogurt and cereal)”

(compared to 39% average)

91

Multiple benefits tap into consumers’ holistic approach to health

Supports

a healthy

lifestyle

Provides

sustained

energy

Keeps you

fuller for

longer

Supports

muscle

growth

Gives an

energy

boost

Increases

stamina

Supports

bone

health

Helps in

managing

weightPerceived benefits of

high-protein

food/drink

92

Usage is heavily skewed towards the younger generation

29% of adults have eaten/drunk high-protein products

rises to 50% of under-35s

93

4.3

2.1

3.54.2

2.8

9.79.0

8.5 8.7

5.8

Snacks Breakfastcereals

Dairy Soup Meals

%

2014 2017

A surge in high-protein innovation

Share of new UK food launches carrying a high-protein claim, by category

94

4.3

2.1

3.54.2

2.8

9.79.0

8.5 8.7

5.8

Snacks Breakfastcereals

Dairy Soup Meals

%

2014 2017

A surge in high-protein innovation

Share of new UK food launches carrying a high-protein claim, by category

95

Brands shouting about their protein content

Arla Protein

Greens

Eatlean Protein

Cheese

The Collective

Great Dairy Pro-

Yo High Protein

Strawberry

Yogurt

W! Wheyhey

Vanilla Protein

Ice Cream

96

More activity in high-protein bread

37% are interested in high-protein bread

rises to 45% of under-35s

Warburtons Thin Seeded

Protein BagelsHovis Lower Carb

breadMorrisons Protein

Rolls

97

Brands embracing plants proteins

High-protein food launches which were vegan:

11% in 2013

16% in 2017

➢ Still creates a lot of standout

➢ Lots of room for potential development

Power of plants + high-protein = winning formula

98

Brands embracing plants proteins

Graze

Protein Kick

Alpro Go On Glorious! Super

SoupsNairn's Organic

Super Seeded

Oatcakes

Conclusions

100

Not only here to

stay, but likely to

gain momentum,

as awareness of

the benefits

builds amid high

levels of media

exposure.

Meat reduction Meat-free foods High-protein

Final thoughts….

A trend not losing

momentum, but

the market is

becoming more

saturated. But still

ripe opportunities

for more plant

proteins – just the

tip of the iceberg!

A very positive

turnaround for a

struggling market.

But innovation is

needed to

overcome barriers

and reach its full

potential. Now is

a great time for

action.

mintel.com

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I Am a Front Cover · 2018-02-09 · Mintel Reports Quantitative & qualitative market data +...

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Transcript of I Am a Front Cover · 2018-02-09 · Mintel Reports Quantitative & qualitative market data +...