Human Development and Climate Change
Basic needs emissions for China as a developing country
Ying Chen
CASS/RCSD
South Africa National climate change conference Oct.17-20
Contents
Introduction & review
Stocks vs. flow: methodology of quantification
Preliminary results for buildings sectors
Potentials for low carbon economy
Commitment based on basic needs emissions
Conclusions
Introduction and review
The concept of human development Human development ≠GDP per capita
UNDP-HDI
Human development and emissions
Industrialization
The nature of emissions Basic needs emissions
Luxurious emissions
Industrialization as a measure of development
Industrialization process urbanization infrastructure : physical infrastructure and
institutional infrastructure Industrial process : labor intensive (energy
intensity low)== 》 capital intensive (energy intensity high) == 》 knowledge intensive (energy intensity low)
Industrial status De-industrializing countries (decoupling energy) Industrialized (stable and high level of energy
consumption) newly industrialized (slow growth of energy
consumption) rapidly industrializing (rapidly increasing consumption of
energy)
2. Methodology for Quantification
A decent living standard would require
The following basics
necessary calories for survival
basic health care
education
access to clean water
Shelter
Carbon emission: Infrastructure
Roads
Railways
Undergrounds
Airport
Water Supply & Treatment Facilities
Flood Control & Drainage Systems
Steel
CementChemicals
Carbon
Infr
astr
uct
ure
Others
Classification of basic needs
Food, clothes, shelter, transport, others
Individual vs. collective
Stock vs. flow
Direct vs. indirect energy/emissions implication
Stocks vs. Flows
Stocks: all the build-up infrastructure, buildings and durables stock carbons physical infrastructure buildings (public & private) durable consumption goods (cars, electric appliances)
Flows: daily/regular need for carbon depreciation maintenance household/service
Description and Selection of indicators
clothes : warm, comfortable, decent Fiber requirement ;
food : nutrition, health Calories intake ;
shelter : space, quality M2/c ; room
temperature,water supply and drainage, etc.
transport : convenient, comfortable Cars/c? ;
Other materials : Electric appliances ;
Other services Safety, security, health ;
Urban infrastructure Water, electricity, road, water
water treatment, municipal waste ;
Regional infrastructure Road, railway, airport, etc Energy, communication ;
Rural infrastructure Water, electricity, road, etc. ;
Public services Government, education,
science & technology, culture, health care, commerce, etc.
Adaptation infrastructure Dykes, dams ;
Basic needs: individual Basic needs: collective
quantification
Fully developed
Dtotal
Cflow
Iflow
Istock
Cstock
Energy/emissions demand
timeTiming for achievement of full development is dependent on variety of conditions
?
Due to physical expansion of stocks and flows, demand of
energy and emissions will increase before stabilization
3. Basic needs: the buildings sectorkey assumptions and parameters for calculation
Population current number is used: 1.3 billion for China (2003) Urban-rural structure: 80% urban, 20% rural
Stock: Per capita area of buildings Shelter (private house): 25m2/c Public buildings: 15m2/c
Flows Cooling degree days (CDDs): 16ºC Heating degree days (HDDs): 26ºC Electric appliances (incl. Cooking): Depreciation of stock: buildings-1/50; cars-1/15; electric appl:
1/10Assumptions
No luxurious/wasteful consumption Current technologies Basic needs satisfied
Buildings: stock
Areas of buildings:
Existing stock : private + collective = 154.94 + 91.65 = 246.59 (*108)m2
Shortage of stock : private + collective = 196.11 + 103.35 = 299.46 (*108)m2
Total : private + collective = 351.05 + 195.00 = 546.05 (*108)m2
Steel:
Required for new stock: 299.46 (*108)m2 * 67.46kg/m2 = 20.201 (*108)t 。
in existing stock : 246.59 (*108)m2 * 67.46kg/m2 = 16.635 (*108)t 。
Total: 20.201 + 16.635 = 36.836 (*108)t 。
Buildings: flow – heating, cooling, appliances
Buildings: flows (100 million tce)
Private house Collective
100milliion tce.
% 亿吨标煤 %
Heating & cooling
6.1 54Urban
heating &cooling
2.9 51
lighting 0.6 5.3Urban lightin
g and eqq.2.2 38
Electric appliance
3.0 27 Rural heating
& cooling0.5 8
cooking 1.4 12Rural lighting
and eqq.0.1 1.8
Water supply 0.2 1.7
Sub-total 11.3 100 Sub-total 5.7 100
total 17.0
4. Potentials for Low Carbon Economy: what should and can we do now?
Non climate but climate friendly policies: can be effective and should be encouraged
Poverty alleviation: the absolute poor disregard energy efficiency and waste emissions due to lack of capacity: e.g. cooking
Population control: basic needs are for people. If the number of people are brought under control, increase in demand for emissions should also be controllable
Energy efficiency: Shanghai outdoor lighting: save 75% electricity using green lighting
Energy security: substitute of fossil energy; hydro power, nuclear, other renewables
Environmental pollution control: replacement of dirty coal by natural gas in cities in China
Potentials of Buildings sectors
A new building in China
A New building in China
A old building in UK
5. Commitment of Emissions Reductions:
what should and can we do now? Obligatory
satisfaction of human basic needs and
restrictions of excessive / wasteful emissions.
Basic commitment Voluntary
technological progress and
institutional innovation
Further commitment: Conditional on
transfer of technologies or financial assistance by the developed country
not compromise human development goals nor encourage luxurious / wasteful emissions
no credits of emissions reductions will be counted if no progress
Conclusions
Human development has clear emissions implications.
Basic needs emissions is a useful concept which can be
quantified under some assumption with parameters.
Basic needs emissions of China is huge while great potentials
do exist for low carbon economy.
Understanding on basic needs emissions is important not only
for domestic policy makers but also helpful for designing a
more fair and effective international climate regime.
Top Related