Human Development and Climate Change

Basic needs emissions for China as a developing country

Ying Chen

CASS/RCSD

South Africa National climate change conference Oct.17-20

Contents

Introduction & review

Stocks vs. flow: methodology of quantification

Preliminary results for buildings sectors

Potentials for low carbon economy

Commitment based on basic needs emissions

Conclusions

Introduction and review

The concept of human development Human development ≠GDP per capita

UNDP-HDI

Human development and emissions

Industrialization

The nature of emissions Basic needs emissions

Luxurious emissions

Industrialization as a measure of development

Industrialization process urbanization infrastructure ： physical infrastructure and

institutional infrastructure Industrial process ： labor intensive (energy

intensity low)== 》 capital intensive (energy intensity high) == 》 knowledge intensive (energy intensity low)

Industrial status De-industrializing countries (decoupling energy) Industrialized (stable and high level of energy

consumption) newly industrialized (slow growth of energy

consumption) rapidly industrializing (rapidly increasing consumption of

energy)

2. Methodology for Quantification

A decent living standard would require

The following basics

necessary calories for survival

basic health care

education

access to clean water

Shelter

Carbon emission: Infrastructure

Roads

Railways

Undergrounds

Airport

Water Supply & Treatment Facilities

Flood Control & Drainage Systems

Steel

CementChemicals

Carbon

Infr

astr

uct

ure

Others

Classification of basic needs

Food, clothes, shelter, transport, others

Individual vs. collective

Stock vs. flow

Direct vs. indirect energy/emissions implication

Stocks vs. Flows

Stocks: all the build-up infrastructure, buildings and durables stock carbons physical infrastructure buildings (public & private) durable consumption goods (cars, electric appliances)

Flows: daily/regular need for carbon depreciation maintenance household/service

Description and Selection of indicators

clothes ： warm, comfortable, decent Fiber requirement ；

food ： nutrition, health Calories intake ；

shelter ： space, quality M2/c ； room

temperature,water supply and drainage, etc.

transport ： convenient, comfortable Cars/c? ；

Other materials ： Electric appliances ；

Other services Safety, security, health ；

Urban infrastructure Water, electricity, road, water

water treatment, municipal waste ；

Regional infrastructure Road, railway, airport, etc Energy, communication ；

Rural infrastructure Water, electricity, road, etc. ；

Public services Government, education,

science & technology, culture, health care, commerce, etc.

Adaptation infrastructure Dykes, dams ；

Basic needs: individual Basic needs: collective

quantification

Fully developed

Dtotal

Cflow

Iflow

Istock

Cstock

Energy/emissions demand

timeTiming for achievement of full development is dependent on variety of conditions

？

Due to physical expansion of stocks and flows, demand of

energy and emissions will increase before stabilization

3. Basic needs: the buildings sectorkey assumptions and parameters for calculation

Population current number is used: 1.3 billion for China (2003) Urban-rural structure: 80% urban, 20% rural

Stock: Per capita area of buildings Shelter (private house): 25m2/c Public buildings: 15m2/c

Flows Cooling degree days (CDDs): 16ºC Heating degree days (HDDs): 26ºC Electric appliances (incl. Cooking): Depreciation of stock: buildings-1/50; cars-1/15; electric appl:

1/10Assumptions

No luxurious/wasteful consumption Current technologies Basic needs satisfied

Buildings: stock

Areas of buildings:

Existing stock ： private + collective = 154.94 + 91.65 = 246.59 (*108)m2

Shortage of stock ： private + collective = 196.11 + 103.35 = 299.46 (*108)m2

Total ： private + collective = 351.05 + 195.00 = 546.05 (*108)m2

Steel:

Required for new stock: 299.46 (*108)m2 * 67.46kg/m2 = 20.201 (*108)t 。

in existing stock ： 246.59 (*108)m2 * 67.46kg/m2 = 16.635 (*108)t 。

Total: 20.201 + 16.635 = 36.836 (*108)t 。

Buildings: flow – heating, cooling, appliances

Buildings: flows (100 million tce)

Private house Collective

100milliion tce.

％ 亿吨标煤 ％

Heating & cooling

6.1 54Urban

heating &cooling

2.9 51

lighting 0.6 5.3Urban lightin

g and eqq.2.2 38

Electric appliance

3.0 27 Rural heating

& cooling0.5 8

cooking 1.4 12Rural lighting

and eqq.0.1 1.8

Water supply 0.2 1.7

Sub-total 11.3 100 Sub-total 5.7 100

total 17.0

4. Potentials for Low Carbon Economy: what should and can we do now?

Non climate but climate friendly policies: can be effective and should be encouraged

Poverty alleviation: the absolute poor disregard energy efficiency and waste emissions due to lack of capacity: e.g. cooking

Population control: basic needs are for people. If the number of people are brought under control, increase in demand for emissions should also be controllable

Energy efficiency: Shanghai outdoor lighting: save 75% electricity using green lighting

Energy security: substitute of fossil energy; hydro power, nuclear, other renewables

Environmental pollution control: replacement of dirty coal by natural gas in cities in China

Potentials of Buildings sectors

A new building in China

A New building in China

A old building in UK

5. Commitment of Emissions Reductions:

what should and can we do now? Obligatory

satisfaction of human basic needs and

restrictions of excessive / wasteful emissions.

Basic commitment Voluntary

technological progress and

institutional innovation

Further commitment: Conditional on

transfer of technologies or financial assistance by the developed country

not compromise human development goals nor encourage luxurious / wasteful emissions

no credits of emissions reductions will be counted if no progress

Conclusions

Human development has clear emissions implications.

Basic needs emissions is a useful concept which can be

quantified under some assumption with parameters.

Basic needs emissions of China is huge while great potentials

do exist for low carbon economy.

Understanding on basic needs emissions is important not only

for domestic policy makers but also helpful for designing a

more fair and effective international climate regime.