GVW 2060
A Sustainable Urban Water Future
Water Supply Demand Strategy
2012-2060
March 2012
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 2
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 3
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Executive Summary ................................................................................................................... 7
1. Introduction................................................................................................................ 15
2. Framework for the Strategy Development ................................................................ 15
2.1 Policy Framework for Water Supply-Demand Strategies ............................................... 15
2.2 Regulatory Requirements for Water Sources ................................................................ 16
2.2.1 Bulk Entitlements ......................................................................................................... 16
2.2.2 River Basin Caps and Sustainable Diversion Limits .................................................. 17
2.2.3 Murray Darling Basin Plan ........................................................................................... 17
2.2.4 Streamflow Management Plans .................................................................................. 17
2.2.5 Heritage Rivers ............................................................................................................. 18
2.2.6 Victorian River Health Strategy ................................................................................... 18
2.2.7 Groundwater Supplies ................................................................................................. 19
2.2.8 Recycled Water ............................................................................................................ 19
2.3 Other Legislative and Regulatory Requirements ........................................................... 19
2.3.1 Permanent Water Conservation Rules ....................................................................... 19
2.3.2 Water Efficiency Labelling and Standards ................................................................. 20
2.3.3 Statement of Obligations ............................................................................................. 20
2.4 Recent Drought Experience ............................................................................................ 21
2.5 Objectives of the WSDS ................................................................................................... 22
2.6 GVW 2055 Outcomes ...................................................................................................... 23
3. Goulburn Valley Water Systems ................................................................................ 24
4. Strategy Development Process ................................................................................. 28
4.1 General ............................................................................................................................. 28
4.2 Community Engagement ................................................................................................. 28
4.3 Levels of Service .............................................................................................................. 29
4.4 Demand Forecasts .......................................................................................................... 30
4.4.1 Residential Demand Model ......................................................................................... 30
4.4.2 Commercial Demand Forecast ................................................................................... 30
4.4.3 Major Customer Demand Forecast ............................................................................. 31
4.4.4 Distribution System Non-Revenue Water Forecast.................................................... 31
4.4.5 Headworks Non-Revenue Water Forecast ................................................................. 31
4.4.6 Baseline Demand Forecast Summary ........................................................................ 32
4.4.7 Demand Scenarios ...................................................................................................... 32
4.5 Supply Forecasts.............................................................................................................. 33
4.5.1 Supply Scenarios ......................................................................................................... 33
4.5.2 Climate Change Scenarios .......................................................................................... 35
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 4
4.6 Demand and Supply Forecast Summary ........................................................................ 35
4.7 Alternative Water Atlas .................................................................................................... 37
4.8 Options Assessment ........................................................................................................ 38
5. Action Plans ............................................................................................................... 38
5.1 General ............................................................................................................................. 38
5.2 Brewery Creek System – Woods Point ........................................................................... 38
5.2.1 Overview of Supply-Demand Balance ......................................................................... 38
5.2.2 Demand and Supply Options....................................................................................... 39
5.2.3 Action Plan for the Brewery Creek System ................................................................. 40
5.3 Delatite River System – Mansfield ................................................................................. 40
5.3.1 Overview of Supply-Demand Balance ......................................................................... 40
5.3.2 Community Consultation ............................................................................................. 42
5.3.3 Demand and Supply Options....................................................................................... 42
5.3.4 Action Plan for the Delatite River System .................................................................. 44
5.4 Upper Delatite River System – Merrijig and Sawmill Settlement ................................. 46
5.4.1 Overview of Supply-Demand Balance ......................................................................... 46
5.4.2 Demand and Supply Options....................................................................................... 47
5.4.3 Action Plan for the Upper Delatite River System ....................................................... 47
5.5 Regulated Goulburn System ........................................................................................... 48
5.5.1 Overview of Supply-Demand Balance ......................................................................... 48
5.5.2 Demand and Supply Options....................................................................................... 50
5.5.3 Action Plan for the Regulated Goulburn System ....................................................... 51
5.6 Katunga Groundwater System – Katunga ..................................................................... 52
5.6.1 Overview of Supply-Demand Balance ......................................................................... 52
5.6.2 Demand and Supply Options....................................................................................... 53
5.6.3 Action Plan for the Katunga System ........................................................................... 53
5.7 Mollisons Creek System – Pyalong ................................................................................. 54
5.7.1 Overview of Supply-Demand Balance ......................................................................... 54
5.7.2 Community Consultation ............................................................................................. 55
5.7.3 Demand and Supply Options....................................................................................... 55
5.7.4 Action Plan for the Mollisons Creek System............................................................... 57
5.8 Regulated Murray System ............................................................................................... 58
5.8.1 Overview of Supply-Demand Balance ......................................................................... 58
5.8.2 Demand and Supply Options....................................................................................... 59
5.8.3 Action Plan for the Regulated Murray System ........................................................... 60
5.9 Nine Mile Creek System – Longwood ............................................................................. 60
5.9.1 Overview of Supply-Demand Balance ......................................................................... 60
5.9.2 Demand and Supply Options....................................................................................... 61
5.9.3 Action Plan for the Nine Mile Creek System ............................................................... 62
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 5
5.10 Seven Creeks and Mt Hut Creek System – Euroa and Violet Town.............................. 62
5.10.1 Overview of Supply-Demand Balance ......................................................................... 62
5.10.2 Community Consultation ............................................................................................. 64
5.10.3 Demand and Supply Options....................................................................................... 65
5.10.4 Action Plan for the Seven Creeks and Mt Hut Creek System .................................... 68
5.11 Seven Creeks System – Strathbogie .............................................................................. 69
5.11.1 Overview of Supply-Demand Balance ......................................................................... 69
5.11.2 Demand and Supply Options....................................................................................... 70
5.11.3 Action Plan for the Strathbogie System ...................................................................... 71
5.12 Steavenson River System – Marysville and Buxton ...................................................... 71
5.12.1 Overview of Supply-Demand Balance ......................................................................... 71
5.12.2 Demand and Supply Options....................................................................................... 72
5.12.3 Action Plan for the Steavenson River System ............................................................ 72
5.13 Sunday Creek System – Broadford and Kilmore ........................................................... 73
5.13.1 Overview of Supply-Demand Balance ......................................................................... 73
5.13.2 Community Consultation ............................................................................................. 75
5.13.3 Demand and Supply Options....................................................................................... 76
5.13.4 Integrated Water Management Option ....................................................................... 78
5.13.5 Action Plan for the Sunday Creek System .................................................................. 80
5.14 Yea River System - Yea .................................................................................................... 81
5.14.1 Overview of Supply-Demand Balance ......................................................................... 81
5.14.2 Demand and Supply Options....................................................................................... 82
5.14.3 Action Plan for the Yea System ................................................................................... 82
6. Alternative Level of Service Assessment ................................................................... 83
6.1 Stage 3 Water Restrictions as Minimum Standard ....................................................... 83
6.2 Unrestricted Supply to Critical Public Assets ................................................................. 83
7. Water Security Outlook .............................................................................................. 84
8. Recommendations ..................................................................................................... 85
9. References ................................................................................................................. 87
APPENDIX 1 – Community Engagement Plan ......................................................................... 89
APPENDIX 2 – Alternative Water Atlas ................................................................................. 103
APPENDIX 3 – Water Security Outlooks ............................................................................... 105
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 6
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 7
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Goulburn Valley Water Background
Goulburn Valley Water (GVW) supplies water to 54 towns utilising 13 water supply systems
as shown in Table 1.
Table 1: Goulburn Valley Water Supply Systems
Towns Supplied Source of Water
Woods Point Brewery Creek and Goulburn
River
Mansfield Delatite River
Merrijig and Sawmill Settlement Delatite River
Alexandra, Avenel, Bonnie Doon, Congupna, Corop, Colbinabbin,
Dookie, Eildon, Girgarre, Goulburn Weir, Katandra West, Kirwan’s
Bridge, Kyabram, Merrigum, Molesworth, Mooroopna, Murchison,
Nagambie, Rushworth, Seymour, Shepparton, Stanhope, Tallarook,
Tallygaroopna, Tatura, Thornton, Tongala, Toolamba
Goulburn River
Katunga Groundwater
Pyalong Mollisons Creek
Barmah, Cobram, Katamatite, Nathalia, Numurkah, Picola,
Strathmerton, Wunghnu, Yarroweyah
Murray System
Longwood Nine Mile Creek
Euroa and Violet Town Seven Creeks, Mt Hut Creek
Strathbogie Seven Creeks
Marysville and Buxton Steavenson River
Broadford, Clonbinane, Heathcote Junction, Kilmore, Wandong,
Waterford Park
Sunday Creek and Goulburn
River
Yea Yea River
Purpose of the Water Supply Demand Strategy
Water Supply-Demand Strategies (WSDS) are developed to identify the best mix of measures
to maintain a balance between the demand for water and the available supply now and into
the future. The balance between supply and demand is to be achieved taking into
consideration:
A long-term outlook of 50 years;
The total water cycle, consistent with the principles of integrated water management;
Social, environmental and economic costs and benefits; and
Risks and uncertainty, such as population growth.
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 8
GVW previously completed a WSDS in 2007 titled ‘GVW 2055 A Sustainable Urban Water
Future’.
The WSDS is to be prepared by 31 March 2012, and within each five yearly period
thereafter, in accordance with Clause 6.1 of the Draft Statement of Obligations (DSE,
2011b).
This document represents the five-yearly update of the WSDS for GVW.
Strategy Development Process
The scope for the development of the WSDS was based on the Guidelines for the
Development of a WSDS (DSE, 2011a) produced by the Department of Sustainability and
Environment.
The strategy development process has involved the following actions:
Undertaking community engagement;
Establishing levels of service;
Developing a demand forecast;
Assessing demand scenarios;
Updating water resource models;
Assessing supply scenarios which include climate change;
Developing an Alternative Water Atlas;
Developing Action Plans for each water supply system to maintain the supply-demand
balance.
Community Engagement
A community engagement plan was developed for the WSDS. A copy of the community
engagement plan is located in Appendix 1.
The community engagement plan was presented to a meeting of GVW’s Corporate Customer
Reference Committee (CCRC) in June 2011 for feedback prior to adoption of the plan.
Key aspects of the plan are summarised as follows:
Formation of a project steering committee representing key stakeholders;
Engagement with the CCRC and steering committee on levels of service targets,
minimum service levels, planning assumptions, level of risk and initiatives to address
future imbalances in supply and demand;
Engagement directly with communities that are supplied from systems with a predicted
shortfall in the supply-demand balance in the short to medium term.
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 9
Levels of Service
GVW’s current level of service objectives for maintaining an adequate supply to customers
are specified as follows:
Moderate water restrictions (Stages 1 and 2) are not desired more frequently on
average than 1 year in 10; and
More severe water restrictions (Stages 3 and 4) are not desired more frequently on
average than 1 year in 20.
The level of service objectives are applied equally across all GVW supply systems
The current level of service objectives were discussed with both the CCRC and the Steering
Committee. Alternative approaches to expressing levels of service such as a minimum
volume or percentage of water available were presented to the CCRC.
The following outcomes were adopted based on discussions in relation to levels of service:
The existing level of service targets will be retained for the development of the WSDS;
Stage 4 water restrictions will be assessed as the minimum service standard;
An alternative minimum service standard of Stage 3 restrictions will also be assessed;
The impact of providing unrestricted supply to critical public assets will be assessed.
Demand Forecast
A baseline demand forecast was developed for the WSDS to cover the period from 2011 –
2060.
Water demand was categorised into the following components:
Residential customer demand;
Commercial and minor industrial customer demand;
Major customer demand;
Distribution system non revenue water; and
Headworks non-revenue water.
A building block approach was adopted to aggregate forecasts for each demand category in
predicting future total demand for each system.
The baseline demand forecast is summarised in Table 2 by the different components of
demand.
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 10
Table 2: Baseline Demand Forecast
Demand Component
2011 Demand
(ML)
2060 Demand
(ML)
Residential Demand 13,634 23,158
Commercial Demand 3,836 5,125
Major Customer Demand 6,479 6,479
Distribution System Non-Revenue Water 2,392 3,563
Headworks Non-Revenue Water 2,941 4,056
Total 29,281 42,380
Demand and Supply Scenarios
A range of demand and supply scenarios were developed. The scenarios were used to
produce demand and supply envelopes for each system. Examples of the scenarios
considered for development of the demand and supply envelopes are shown in Figure 1 and
2.
Figure 1: Demand Forecast Envelope for the Goulburn System (Source: GHD, 2011b)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
An
nu
al D
em
an
d (
ML
)
Year
Baseline 20% over-estimate
20%under-estimate 10% over-estimate
10% under-estimate 5% over-estimate
5% under-estimate Low Demand
High Demand
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 11
Figure 2: Supply Forecast Envelope Example (Source: GHD, 2011b)
Demand and Supply Forecast Summary
A summary of the demand and supply (yield) forecasts based on water resource modelling
for a range of scenarios is shown in Table 3.
A number of systems will require action to be undertaken in future to improve the supply-
demand balance.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Sys
tem
Yie
ld (
ML
)
Baseline
Dry CC
Historic
Median -10yrs
Median +10yrs
Wetter Conditions
Return to Dry Conditions
Modelling Uncertainty -
10%
Modelling Uncertainty
+10%
High Supply Forecast
Low Supply Forecast
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 12
Table 3: Demand and Supply Forecast Summary (Source: GHD, 2011c)
System 2012 WSDS Demand (ML/year) 2012 WSDS Yield (ML/year)
Historical
Climate
Median Climate
Change
Dry Climate Change Return to Dry
Conditions
(1997 – 2009) 2011 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060
Regulated Goulburn 20,449 22,956 28,301 33,490 33,490 33,490 33,490 33,490 33,490
Regulated Murray 5,108 5,508 6,317 5,593 5,593 5,593 5,593 5,593 5,593
Sunday Creek (Broadford &
Kilmore) System 1,446 2,054 4,146 2,086 1,818 1,693 1,736 1,326 1,374
Nine Mile Creek (Longwood)
System 53 54 57 72 70 63 63 63 65
Mollisons Creek (Pyalong) System 41 48 63 37 35 35 32 32 35
Brewery Creek (Woods Point)
System 29 29 28 30 30 30 30 30 30
Yea River (Yea) System 244 290 405 438 438 438 438 438 438
Steavenson River (Marysville &
Buxton) System 135 219 262 462 462 462 462 462 462
Seven Creeks (Strathbogie) System 18 17 17 23 23 23 23 23 23
Seven Creeks (Euroa & Violet
Town) System 775 843 988 710 630 560 567 504 540
Delatite River (Mansfield) System 560 710 1,083 830 750 680 680 530 510
Delatite River (Merrijig & Sawmill
Settlement) System 68 87 136 235 235 235 235 235 235
Katunga 53 58 68 77 77 77 77 77 77
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 13
Recommendations
Recommendations have been developed to undertake actions to improve the
supply-demand balance based on three separate timeframes (short term, medium term,
long term).
The short term period covers the remainder of the Water Plan 2 period and the Water Plan 3
period.
The medium and long term recommendations have the flexibility to be brought forward or
deferred depending on the demand and supply scenarios which eventuate in future.
The following recommendations are made as a result of the GVW Water Supply Demand
Strategy 2011–2060:
Short Term (2012-2018)
Non revenue water losses should be verified for a number of systems and programs
implemented to reduce losses if economically justified (benefits outweigh costs);
Assess opportunities from the Alternative Water Atlas;
Implement demand management initiatives if they are economically justified (benefits
outweigh costs);
Continue existing streamflow monitoring programs to reduce uncertainty in water
resource modelling;
Monitor demands at Woods Point following the installation of customer metering;
Recognise the need to transfer entitlement from the Goulburn system to mitigate
shortfalls in other towns in future planning;
Adopt water cartage as an infrequent (expected one in twenty years for short
durations) measure to supplement supply for the Upper Delatite Diver system if
streamflows fall below diversion limits;
Transfer of groundwater entitlement from Strathmerton to Katunga to protect against
low allocation years;
Adopt water cartage as a measure to supplement supply for the Mollisons Creek
(Pyalong) system in dry years;
Implement dam safety works at Longwood to return Nine Mile Creek Reservoir to full
design capacity of 27ML;
Recycle Water Treatment Plant sludge supernatant water at Euroa;
Construct a new 300ML off stream storage and a permanent pump station on Seven
Creeks for the Seven Creeks (Euroa and Violet Town) system;
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 14
Construct pre-treatment works at the Broadford Water Treatment Plant to provide
capacity for increased usage of Goulburn River water;
Connection of the drought contingency pump station which transfers Goulburn River
water from Broadford to Sunday Creek Reservoir to a permanent power supply;
Purchase land for a future tank site at Kilmore;
Review the feasibility of an integrated water management option for Kilmore as part of
the next update of the WSDS;
Undertake additional community consultation on adopting Stage 3 water restrictions
and unrestricted supply to critical public assets as alternative service standards. This
should be undertaken as part of the Water Plan 3 consultation.
Medium Term (2018-2030)
Construction of a pipeline from Tooborac to Pyalong to supplement supply for the
Mollisons Creek system;
Construction of an additional 20ML off stream storage for the Mollisons Creek system;
Reconstruct Abbinga Reservoir at Euroa and increase capacity to 700ML;
Construction of an interconnection pipeline between Broadford and Kilmore;
Review strategy for water cartage at Upper Delatite during low flow periods.
Long Term (2030-2060)
Increase raw water diversion pipeline capacity and construct additional off stream
storage for the Delatite River (Mansfield) system;
Consider purchasing additional entitlement from the Goulburn system to maintain a
desirable buffer to protect against risk and uncertainty;
Consider purchasing additional entitlement from the Murray system to reduce the
reliance on annual transfers from Goulburn system bulk entitlements.
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 15
1. INTRODUCTION
Water Supply-Demand Strategies (WSDS) are developed to identify the best mix of
measures to maintain a balance between the demand for water and the available
supply now and into the future. The balance between supply and demand is to be
achieved taking into consideration:
A long-term outlook of 50 years;
The total water cycle, consistent with the principles of integrated water
management;
Social, environmental and economic costs and benefits; and
Risks and uncertainty, such as population growth.
Goulburn Valley Water (GVW) previously completed a WSDS in 2007 titled ‘GVW
2055 A Sustainable Urban Water Future’. The WSDS is to be prepared by 31 March
2012, and within each five yearly period thereafter, in accordance with Clause 6.1
of the Draft Statement of Obligations (DSE, 2011b). This document represents the
five-yearly update of the WSDS for GVW.
2. FRAMEWORK FOR THE STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT
2.1 Policy Framework for Water Supply-Demand Strategies
The policy framework for Water Supply Demand Strategies is outlined in the
Guidelines for the Development of a Water Supply Demand Strategy (DSE,
2011a). Key points from the guidelines are as follows:
Water corporations manage water resources and provide water supply
and sewerage services to customers. The actions of water
corporations are guided by long-term and short-term planning tools
that set out plans for action over the next 50 years as well as plans
for action in the immediate to short-term, including what to do in
response to problems if and when they arise;
Long term planning tools include Water Supply Demand Strategies,
which aim to balance supply and demand over the next 50 years, and
regional Sustainable Water Strategies, which identify threats and
opportunities for water supply over a similar time scale.
The Northern Region Sustainable Water Strategy (NRSWS) was completed
in 2009 and covers an area of northern Victoria which includes the entire
GVW service region. The NRSWS introduced a number of policies that
directly impact on the water resource management actions available to
GVW. These policies included the introduction of system reserve for the
Regulated Goulburn and Regulated Murray systems and carryover rules.
The policies introduced as a result of the NRSWS have been incorporated
into the water resource modelling used in the development of this WSDS.
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 16
2.2 Regulatory Requirements for Water Sources
There are a number of legislative and regulatory controls which need to be
considered in developing the WSDS. This section outlines these controls
and how they influence the decisions that GVW may make in future in
relation to maintaining a balance between the demand for water and
available supply.
2.2.1 Bulk Entitlements
GVW has been issued with Bulk Entitlements for extraction of
water from rivers and storages for the majority of towns that it
supplies. The Bulk Entitlements specify a number of conditions
including maximum annual volume of extraction, and in many
cases there are restrictions on the daily rate of extraction. The Bulk
Entitlements are in the form of a Ministerial Order issued under the
provisions of the Water Act (1989). GVW also has a licence to
extract groundwater to supply Katunga.
Existing Bulk Entitlements are listed below in Table 2-1.
Table 2-1: Bulk Entitlements held by Goulburn Valley Water
Water Source Water Supply System / Towns Maximum Annual Entitlement
Volume (ML/Year)
Brewery Creek Woods Point 30
Delatite River Mansfield 1,300
(2,600ML in any 2 year period)
Upper Delatite River Merrijig & Sawmill Settlement 235
Goulburn River Regulated Goulburn 33,490
Mollisons Creek Pyalong 75
Murray System Regulated Murray 5,593
Nine Mile Creek Longwood 120
Seven Creeks & Mt Hut Creek Euroa & Violet Town 1,990
Seven Creeks Strathbogie Future BE likely to be 23ML
Steavenson River Marysville & Buxton 462
Sunday Creek Broadford & Kilmore 2,875
Yea River Yea 438
A number of the Bulk Entitlements are subject to minimum passing
flow rates which limit diversions by GVW. There are no additional
environmental obligations identified in the current Bulk
Entitlements.
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 17
2.2.2 River Basin Caps and Sustainable Diversion Limits
The water supply systems operated by GVW are within the Murray
Darling basin where there is a Cap on diversions. The Cap limits
water extractions to the volume of water that would have been
delivered under 1993/94 levels of development and no new
allocation of entitlements is permitted within the Murray Darling
Basin system. While the Cap for Victoria has provision for climate
adjusted volumes, the Bulk Entitlements held by GVW state an
upper limit for annual extraction in any one year. For the purpose
of the WSDS it has been assumed that any additional future
sources of water will need to be acquired by the purchase of
entitlements.
2.2.3 Murray Darling Basin Plan
A draft Basin Plan has been released by the Murray Darling Basin
Authority and is currently at a consultation stage.
The draft Basin Plan identifies that water resource plans will be
prepared to achieve sustainable diversion limits in future. The
sustainable diversion limits will not apply until 2019, however a
review of progress towards achieving the sustainable diversion
limits will be undertaken in 2015.
The draft Basin Plan has established sustainable diversion limits
for the Victorian Murray and Goulburn water resource plan areas
which may impact on GVW. The sustainable diversion limits are
identified as less than the current baseline diversion limit for both
the Victorian Murray and Goulburn.
The impact on GVW from the draft Basin Plan is currently not clear
and for the purpose of the WSDS it has been assumed that GVW
bulk water entitlements are not impacted by the Basin Plan. The
draft Basin Plan currently identifies that critical human needs
water is the highest priority water user.
Given that the sustainable diversion limit targets will not apply until
2019, future updates of the WSDS will consider any impacts on
GVW from the Basin Plan.
2.2.4 Streamflow Management Plans
Streamflow Management Plans define the rules for sharing
between different water users in unregulated rivers. Streamflow
Management Plans are only developed in priority streams across
Victoria where there are competing uses for water.
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 18
GVW aims to maintain the health of all streams when developing
options. There are likely to be opportunities in future to reduce
extractions during low flows in the summer period by increasing
winter and spring diversions and utilising off stream storages. This
would lead to an improvement in river health.
2.2.5 Heritage Rivers
The purpose of the Heritage Rivers Act 1992 is to provide
protection of public land. This applies particularly to parts of rivers
and river catchment areas in Victoria that have significant nature
conservation, recreation, scenic or cultural heritage attributes. The
Act specifies whether impoundments or artificial barriers can be
constructed and the degree to which new water diversions are
permitted.
The Goulburn River (from Lake Eildon to the River Murray), the
Howqua River (from the junction of the north and south branches
to Lake Eildon), and the Big River (from the junction of Spring and
Oaks Creeks to the junction of Fryer Creek and Big River Arm at
Lake Eildon), have been listed as Heritage River Areas.
The heritage river and natural catchment areas have been taken
into account when considering future water supply options for
GVW’s water supply systems.
2.2.6 Victorian River Health Strategy
The Victorian River Health Strategy outlines the long-term direction
for the management of Victoria's rivers. It provides a vision for the
management of rivers in Victoria, policy direction on issues
affecting river health and a blueprint for integrating efforts on
rivers and ensuring that the most effective river health benefits are
achieved for the effort and resources invested.
The intent of a Regional River Health Strategy is to:
Establish objectives for river systems and river reaches, and
to set priorities to achieve these;
Engage communities in both the development and
implementation of the strategy;
Articulate the priorities for all relevant river health activities
across an entire Catchment Management Authority region;
Build an evidence-based and robust case for government
investment in river health.
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 19
High priority rivers have been identified through Regional River
Health Strategies. The Murray River (including the Goulburn River
as a Murray tributary) has been identified as one of a number of
high priority rivers for improving flows.
On high priority rivers, Catchment Management Authorities will
integrate river restoration with the management of the
Environmental Water Reserve (EWR) to:
Reinstate and/or protect critical river and riparian habitat;
Ensure effective delivery of the EWR, such as refurbishment
of weirs or infrastructure that inhibits the release of the EWR
or improving floodplain connections;
Demonstrate the benefits of protecting and restoring the
health of rivers to catchment communities through
information, education and involvement;
Monitor and assess the health of the rivers and to determine
future actions.
2.2.7 Groundwater Supplies
GVW currently holds two groundwater licences for supply to
Katunga and Strathmerton. The Strathmerton licence is currently
not used for supply to Strathmerton. The Katunga and
Strathmerton bores are located in a Groundwater Supply
Protection Area that is subject to a Groundwater Management
Plan.
2.2.8 Recycled Water
Recycled water produced from wastewater management facilities
is governed under the Environment Protection Act 1970 with
supporting Guidelines for Environmental Management: Use of
Reclaimed Water EPA Publication No, 464.2 prepared in 2003.
This legislation places limits on the quality of recycled water
required for specific uses.
2.3 Other Legislative and Regulatory Requirements
2.3.1 Permanent Water Conservation Rules
A Permanent Water Conservation By-law was introduced in January
2004 and was aimed at encouraging customers to conserve water
particularly in outside use. The By-Law limited times of watering
and prohibited some inefficient watering practices.
In March 2011, the Victorian Government announced that a
comprehensive review of Drought Response Plans (including water
restrictions) and Permanent Water Saving Plans (including
permanent water saving rules) would be conducted across Victoria.
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 20
The review has been completed and a new Permanent Water
Saving Plan was approved in November 2011. For GVW customers
the major change is that the permitted period for the use of fixed
sprinklers will now be between 6pm and 10am. Previously the
period was between 5pm and 10am. Hand-held hoses fitted with a
trigger nozzle can be used at any time. Public gardens, lawns and
playing surfaces using watering systems are limited to the same
hours, but are now be required to have a rain or soil moisture
sensor installed to control the system. Many of the other changes
relate to the granting of exemptions, including an exemption for
the establishment of warm season grass, and for eliminating the
need for the preparation of a waterMAP by large water users.
A model water restriction by-law has also been developed as part
the review which can now be used by water corporations to create
their own by-law. The model water restriction by-law includes four
levels of water restrictions which is consistent with past by-laws in
place at GVW.
2.3.2 Water Efficiency Labelling and Standards
The Water Efficiency Labelling and Standards Scheme (WELS)
requires certain water-using products to be labelled for water
efficiency.
The scheme was established on 1 July 2006 as a co-operative
Commonwealth/state and territory regulatory system to help
reduce domestic water consumption. Under the scheme, product
suppliers are required to provide water efficiency information, and
star-ratings, to consumers - clothes washers, dishwashers,
showers, taps, toilets, urinals and flow controllers. Industry must
register these products with the WELS Regulator.
The scheme is funded from industry registration fees and
contributions from federal, state and territory governments. The
WELS scheme has its own Act, The Water Efficiency Labelling and
Standards Act 2005, and is underpinned by Australian Standard
AS/NZS 6400.
The WELS scheme will contribute to reduced in-house demand in
the GVW region through the increased use of water efficient
products.
2.3.3 Statement of Obligations
Section 7.2 of the Draft Statement of Obligations (DSE, 2011b)
outlines the following requirements for GVW in relation to river
health:
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 21
The Corporation must, where waterways and wetlands are
used for the supply of water, develop and implement plans
and programs consistent with any guidelines issued by the
Secretary to:
(a) Seek to enhance ecological benefits where service
standards to customers are not compromised;
(b) work cooperatively with the Victorian Environmental
Water Holder and relevant agencies;
(c) have regard to any guidelines issued by the Minister for
that purpose; and
(d) make available to the public information on its activities
to enhance ecological benefits.
2.4 Recent Drought Experience
Drought conditions were experienced for extended periods from 1997 to
2009 across the GVW region.
A number of GVW towns experienced high level water restrictions (Stage 4)
for extended periods. Drought response plans were updated a number of
times during this period and actions from the plans were successfully
implemented to manage water supplies through the drought.
The Regulated Goulburn system Bulk Entitlement proved to be reliable
during the drought period and provides a highly secure supply to a large
number of GVW towns.
The completion of the first WSDS in 2007 highlighted the impact of the
extended period of drought on level of service targets and system yield
forecasts. A number of systems which reliably achieved level of service
targets under historical conditions were not as secure under the drought
conditions which eventuated.
Key learnings from the recent drought for GVW have been:
The benefits from maintaining updated drought response plans.
The impact on level of service targets and system yield from climate
which varies substantially from historical conditions.
The reliability of the Regulated Goulburn system Bulk Entitlement and
the opportunities that it provides to secure supplies for additional
towns through interconnections and transfers.
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 22
2.5 Objectives of the WSDS
The objectives of Water Supply-Demand Strategies from the Guidelines
(DSE, 2011) are to facilitate efficient and effective urban water planning
and investment to ensure:
Safe, secure, reliable and affordable water supplies that meet
society’s needs;
Customers have access to desired water products and services, and
can choose to use water for activities they value highly;
All water resources – including rainwater, stormwater and recycled
water – are utilised in ways that are efficient and fit-for-purpose,
whilst ensuring that public and environmental health are protected;
Water projects also aim to enhance the liveability, productivity,
prosperity and environment of our cities and towns – wherever
possible;
Water needs of environmental assets are transparently considered
and delivered;
Water planning is subject to a transparent and rigorous decision-
making process, with clear roles and responsibilities and
accountabilities, which can adapt to the changing environment.
The key principles for the development of the WSDS for GVW are:
Water supply systems should be designed to provide an agreed
minimum level of service;
Planning should be based on the best available information on
current and future water resources;
Planning should be scenario based, incorporating uncertainty in
supply and demand.
All water supply and demand options should be assessed on a robust
and transparent basis, examining the social, environmental and
economic costs and benefits;
Pricing and markets should be used to help balance the supply and
demand for water, where it is efficient and feasible to do so;
Plans and strategies should be able to be adapted as necessary to
reflect additional information and knowledge;
The value of individual options to the overall supply-demand balance
portfolio should recognise supply characteristics as well as changing
circumstances.
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 23
2.6 GVW 2055 Outcomes
The Delatite River system (Mansfield) and the Sunday Creek System
(Broadford and Kilmore) were identified as having immediate shortfalls in
the supply-demand balance in GVW 2055.
The Upper Delatite system (Merrijig and Sawmill Settlement) and the Nine
Mile Creek System (Longwood) were identified as having a shortfall in the
supply-demand balance in the short term. For both systems an extended
period of stream flow monitoring was recommended to address uncertainty
in the modelling undertaken to predict supply availability.
Since the completion of GVW2055 the following actions have been
implemented to address the identified shortfalls:
A new 350ML raw water storage has been constructed at Mansfield;
A pipeline has been constructed from the Goulburn River to
Broadford;
A stream flow monitoring site has been installed on the Upper Delatite
River to obtain monitoring data for water resource model calibration.
The calibration of the water resource model using stream flow data
has resulted in a prediction of increased supply availability in
comparison to the previous WSDS.
A stream flow monitoring site has been installed on the Nine Mile
Creek to obtain monitoring data for water resource model calibration.
The calibration of the water resource model using stream flow data
has resulted in a prediction of increased supply availability in
comparison to the previous WSDS.
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 24
3. GOULBURN VALLEY WATER SYSTEMS
The area serviced by Goulburn Valley Water is shown in Figure 3.1.
Figure 3.1: Goulburn Valley Water Region
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 25
Goulburn Valley Water supplies water to 54 towns utilising 13 water supply systems
as shown in Table 3-1.
Table 3-1: Goulburn Valley Water supply systems
Towns Supplied Source of Water
Woods Point
Brewery Creek and Goulburn
River
Mansfield Delatite River
Merrijig and Sawmill Settlement Delatite River
Alexandra, Avenel, Bonnie Doon, Congupna, Corop,
Colbinabbin, Dookie, Eildon, Girgarre, Goulburn
Weir, Katandra West, Kirwan’s Bridge, Kyabram,
Merrigum, Molesworth, Mooroopna, Murchison,
Nagambie, Rushworth, Seymour, Shepparton,
Stanhope, Tallarook, Tallygaroopna, Tatura,
Thornton, Tongala, Toolamba
Goulburn River
Katunga Groundwater
Pyalong Mollisons Creek
Barmah, Cobram, Katamatite, Nathalia,
Numurkah, Picola, Strathmerton, Wunghnu,
Yarroweyah
Murray System
Longwood Nine Mile Creek
Euroa and Violet Town Seven Creeks, Mt Hut Creek
Strathbogie Seven Creeks
Marysville and Buxton Steavenson River
Broadford, Clonbinane, Heathcote Junction,
Kilmore, Wandong, Waterford Park
Sunday Creek and Goulburn
River
Yea Yea River
Water usage over the past five years and the current baseline demand forecast is
shown in Table 3-2.
The current baseline demand forecast represents expected water demand in each
water supply system under existing conditions. Further detail in relation to the
preparation of the baseline demand forecast is provided in Section 4.4.
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 26
Table 3-2: Raw Water Demand 2006 - 2011
Water Source Water Supply
System / Towns
Raw Water Demand (ML)
06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 Current
Baseline
Brewery Creek Woods Point 25 25 34 17 13 29
Delatite River Mansfield 512 591 839 584 456 560
Upper Delatite
River
Merrijig &
Sawmill
Settlement
75 60 71 62 63 68
Goulburn
River
Regulated
Goulburn 21,381 18,942 20,032 19,583 16,579 20,448
Katunga
Groundwater
Katunga 47 57 53 46 39 53
Mollisons
Creek
Pyalong 67 51 39 40 55 52
Murray
System
Regulated
Murray 4,554 3,798 4,324 4,681 4,016 5,109
Nine Mile
Creek
Longwood 57 52 50 49 41 53
Seven Creeks
& Mt Hut
Creek
Euroa & Violet
Town 618 662 801 681 525 775
Seven Creeks Strathbogie NA 14 17 16 16 18
Steavenson
River
Marysville &
Buxton 264 330 271 184 157 221
Sunday Creek Broadford &
Kilmore 1,236 440 620 2,339 680 1,652
Yea River Yea 226 227 259 233 175 244
Total 29,062 25,249 27,410 28,515 22,815 29,281
The following should be noted for Table 3-2:
Historical raw water demands for the Regulated Murray and Sunday Creek
systems do not include transfers from the Regulated Goulburn system;
Transfers from the Regulated Goulburn system to other systems are included
in the historical demand for the Regulated Goulburn system.
Raw water demand for 2008/2009 at Mansfield includes filling of a new
storage.
Raw water demand for the Sunday Creek system for 2009/2010 includes
filling of Sunday Creek Reservoir.
High raw water demand for Woods Point in 2008/2009 was due to system
leakage.
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 27
A comparison between Bulk Entitlements and the current baseline demand forecast
is shown in Table 3-3.
Table 3-3: Bulk Entitlement Comparison to Baseline Demand Forecast
Water Source Water Supply
System / Towns
Maximum Annual
Entitlement Volume
(ML/Year)
Current
Baseline
Demand
(ML/year)
Brewery Creek Woods Point 30 29
Delatite River Mansfield
1,300
(2,600ML in any two year
period)
560
Upper Delatite
River
Merrijig &
Sawmill
Settlement
235 68
Goulburn River Regulated
Goulburn 33,490 20,448
Katunga
Groundwater Katunga
77
(maximum permissible
allocation of 70% from
110ML licence)
53
Mollisons Creek Pyalong 75 52
Murray System Regulated
Murray 5,593 5,109
Nine Mile Creek Longwood 120 53
Seven Creeks &
Mt Hut Creek
Euroa & Violet
Town 1,990 775
Seven Creeks Strathbogie Future BE likely to be
23ML 18
Steavenson
River
Marysville &
Buxton 462 221
Sunday Creek Broadford &
Kilmore 2,875 1,652
Yea River Yea 438 244
Total 46,702 29,281
Further details for each water supply source are provided in Section 5 of this
strategy.
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 28
4. STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT PROCESS
4.1 General
The scope for the development of the WSDS was based on the Guidelines
for the Development of a WSDS (DSE, 2011) produced by the Department
of Sustainability and Environment.
The following section outlines the process that was followed to develop the
WSDS.
4.2 Community Engagement
A community engagement plan was developed for the WSDS. A copy of the
community engagement plan is located in Appendix 1.
The community engagement plan was presented to a meeting of GVW’s
Corporate Customer Reference Committee (CCRC) in June 2011 for
feedback prior to adoption of the plan.
Key aspects of the plan are summarised as follows:
Formation of a project steering committee representing key
stakeholders;
Engagement with the CCRC and steering committee on levels of
service targets, minimum service levels, planning assumptions, level
of risk and initiatives to address future imbalances in supply and
demand;
Engagement directly with communities that are supplied from
systems with a predicted shortfall in the supply-demand balance in
the short to medium term. Details of engagement with individual
communities is located in Section 5 of this document.
Placement of the draft WSDS and fact sheets on the GVW website.
The project steering committee which was formed for the project included
representatives from:
Campaspe Shire Council;
Department of Sustainability and Environment;
Goulburn-Murray Water;
Greater Shepparton City Council;
Mitchell Shire Council;
Moira Shire Council;
Murray Goulburn Co-Operative Company Limited (Major Customer);
Strathbogie Shire Council;
Tatura Milk Industries Limited (Major Customer).
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 29
4.3 Levels of Service
GVW’s current level of service objectives for maintaining an adequate
supply to customers are specified as follows:
Moderate water restrictions (Stages 1 and 2) are not desired more
frequently on average than 1 year in 10; and
More severe water restrictions (Stages 3 and 4) are not desired more
frequently on average than 1 year in 20.
The level of service objectives are applied equally across all GVW supply
systems
The current level of service objectives were discussed with both the CCRC
and the Steering Committee. Alternative approaches to expressing levels of
service such as a minimum volume or percentage of water available were
presented to the CCRC.
Key points from discussions with both the CCRC and Steering Committee
were as follows:
Expressing levels of service in terms of frequency of water restrictions
is the clearest method for communicating service levels to customers;
Retaining the current level of service objectives was supported;
Adopting Stage 4 water restrictions as the minimum service level was
supported;
The Steering Committee supported GVW assessing the impact of
adopting Stage 3 restrictions as the minimum service standard;
The Steering Committee also supported assessing the impact of
providing unrestricted supply to critical public assets.
The following outcomes were adopted based on discussions in relation to
levels of service:
The existing level of service targets have been retained for the
development of the WSDS;
Stage 4 water restrictions were assessed as the minimum service
standard;
An alternative minimum service standard of Stage 3 restrictions was
also assessed;
The impact of providing unrestricted supply to critical public assets
was also assessed.
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 30
4.4 Demand Forecasts
A baseline demand forecast was developed for the WSDS to cover the
period from 2011 – 2060.
Water demand was categorised into the following components:
Residential customer demand;
Commercial and minor industrial customer demand;
Major customer demand;
Distribution system non revenue water; and
Headworks non-revenue water.
A building block approach was adopted to aggregate forecasts for each
demand category in predicting future total demand for each system
4.4.1 Residential Demand Model
Two multi-variate regression models have been developed to
forecast residential demand. The models have been developed
based on the aggregated demand for all water supply systems
managed by GVW and include climatic variables and restrictions on
use variables.
Separate models are used for the northern and southern areas of
GVW’s region to improve forecast accuracy and recognise differing
demand patterns and water usage.
Water consumption can be categorised as discretionary and non-
discretionary. Non-discretionary water consumption essentially
consists of in-house use. Discretionary consumption is all other
water usage, dominated by outside house use and is the major
contributor to variability of demand. The major demand modifiers
are temperature, rainfall, usage restrictions and water
conservation initiatives.
Projections for population growth and subsequent changes in
water connection numbers were derived from Victoria in Future
data available from the Department of Planning and Community
Development website.
4.4.2 Commercial Demand Forecast
Commercial and minor industrial water demand per assessment is
relatively static. This lack of variability does not warrant the
development of separate complex forecasting models.
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 31
For each town an average demand per customer has been
adopted for forecasting taking into account the predicted increase
in customers. Growth rates for new commercial customers have
been developed based on consideration of residential growth rates
and historic growth in customer numbers.
4.4.3 Major Customer Demand Forecast
Major customers were contacted by GVW and provided with the
opportunity to submit future projections for water usage.
Major customer demand is sensitive to factors such as climatic
variations, changes in technology and economic conditions. It is
often difficult for major customers to provide future projections for
water usage due to these factors.
Where a major customer has provided future projections for water
usage, this information has been used to inform the demand
forecast.
Where a major customer has not provided future projections for
water usage, GVW has reviewed historical water usage data for the
customer and adopted an average level of demand based on this
review.
For the majority of major customers, future projections have not
been provided beyond the next five years. Major customer demand
is assumed to remain constant beyond the next five years.
4.4.4 Distribution System Non-Revenue Water Forecast
Distribution system non-revenue water comprises water main
cleaning, fire fighting, unmetered consumption and leakage.
The adopted volume of distribution system non-revenue water for
each town has been selected based on a review of historical
volumes of non-revenue water.
4.4.5 Headworks Non-Revenue Water Forecast
Headworks non-revenue water comprises water treatment plant
production water usage, evaporation from off-stream storages
where applicable, unmetered water usage and leakage on bulk
water supply mains.
The adopted volume of headworks non-revenue water for each
town has been selected based on a review of historical volumes of
non-revenue water.
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 32
4.4.6 Baseline Demand Forecast Summary
The baseline demand forecast for each category of demand for
2011 and 2060 is summarised in Table 4-1.
Table 4-1: Baseline Demand Forecast
Demand Component
2011
Demand (ML)
2060
Demand
(ML)
Residential Demand 13,634 23,158
Commercial Demand 3,836 5,125
Major Customer Demand 6,479 6,479
Distribution System Non-
Revenue Water 2,392 3,563
Headworks Non-Revenue
Water 2,941 4,056
Total 29,281 42,380
4.4.7 Demand Scenarios
Consultant GHD was engaged by GVW to develop demand and
supply scenarios which are documented in a report titled ‘Water
Supply Demand Strategy 2011-2060 Water Resources Modelling
Part B, baseline Yield and Reliability Scenario Modelling’ (GHD,
2011b).
The baseline demand forecast is intended to represent the most
likely of plausible demand scenarios. Sensitivity analysis was
undertaken to assess the impact of changes to components of the
demand forecast. Demand components which were varied in the
sensitivity analysis included population forecasts, new residential
connection consumption rates and non-revenue water.
A demand forecast envelope was produced as a result of the
sensitivity analysis. The demand forecast envelope for the
Goulburn system is shown in Figure 4.1.
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 33
Figure 4.1: Demand Forecast Envelope for the Goulburn System (Source: GHD, 2011b)
4.5 Supply Forecasts
Consultant GHD was engaged by GVW to update yield and reliability
estimates for water supply systems.
There are ten water supply systems operated by GVW which source water
from unregulated river systems. The ten systems are represented by nine
REALM models (Delatite River and Upper Delatite River are a single model).
REALM is a computer based water supply system simulation package.
Yield forecasts for the Regulated Goulburn and Regulated Murray systems
have been based on the bulk entitlements and the yield forecast for
Katunga has been based on the groundwater extraction licence.
The updating of REALM models is documented in a report titled ‘Water
Supply Demand Strategy 2011-2060 Water Resource Modelling Part A,
Update of System REALM Models and Hydrologic Datasets’ (GHD, 2011a).
4.5.1 Supply Scenarios
A number of scenarios were assessed to develop a supply forecast
envelope for each water supply system. The scenarios which were
considered included:
Historic streamflow conditions;
Climate change impacted streamflow at 2030 and 2060.
Separate scenarios were developed for Dry, Median, Wet and
Return to Dry conditions.
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
An
nu
al D
em
an
d (
ML
)
Year
Baseline 20% over-estimate
20%under-estimate 10% over-estimate
10% under-estimate 5% over-estimate
5% under-estimate Low Demand
High Demand
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 34
Climate change impacted streamflow occurring earlier or
later than currently estimated;
Modelling error and uncertainty. Models used to derive yield
estimates have been assessed as having high moderate or
low level accuracy with error bands of +/-5%, +/- 10% and
+/- 15% being adopted to reflect accuracy.
Figure 4.2 illustrates the method used to define the supply
forecast envelope, detailing the baseline, high supply and low
supply forecasts. The median climate change scenario has been
adopted as the primary baseline forecast. Sensitivity analysis has
shown that the high supply forecast is generally defined by the
degree of model uncertainty (at 2011) and the yield under historic
climate conditions (at 2060). The low supply forecast is generally
defined by the degree of model uncertainty (at 2011) and the dry
climate change condition at 2060.
Figure 4.2: Supply Forecast Envelope Example (Source: GHD, 2011b)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Sys
tem
Yie
ld (
ML
)
Baseline
Dry CC
Historic
Median -10yrs
Median +10yrs
Wetter Conditions
Return to Dry Conditions
Modelling Uncertainty -
10%
Modelling Uncertainty
+10%
High Supply Forecast
Low Supply Forecast
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 35
4.5.2 Climate Change Scenarios
The Guidelines for the Development of a Water Supply-Demand
Strategy (DSE, 2011a) provide guidance for assessing the impacts
of potential impacts of climate change on rainfall, evaporation and
runoff. The impacts for the Goulburn-Broken and Upper Murray
River Basins are described in Table 4-2 for Wet, Median and Dry
condition scenarios.
Table 4-2: Impacts on Runoff, Rainfall and Evaporation at 2030 and 2060 (Source: GHD,
2011b)
Scenario 2030 2060
Goulburn –
Broken Basin
Upper Murray
Basin
Goulburn –
Broken Basin
Upper Murray
Basin
Runoff
Wet -3% 0 -5% 0%
Median -12% -38% -21% -38%
Dry -21% -85% -38% -85%
Rainfall
Wet 0% 2% 0% 2%
Median -5% -10% -11% -10%
Dry -7% -16% -14% -16%
Evaporation
Wet 3% 7% 6% 7%
Median 2% 1% 4% 1%
Dry 2% 5% 3% 5%
The presentation of climate change scenarios in Section 5 of this
document represents the wet, median and dry scenarios from the
WSDS Guidelines as high yield, median climate change (median
cc) and low yield respectively.
For a number of water supply systems, the Bulk Entitlement is the
limiting factor for system yield rather than the climate change
scenarios. Further details are provided in Section 5 for individual
water supply systems where this applies.
4.6 Demand and Supply Forecast Summary
A summary of the demand and supply (yield) forecasts based on water
resource modelling for a range of scenarios is shown in Table 4-3.
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 36
Table 4-3: Demand and Supply Forecast Summary (Source: GHD, 2011b)
System 2012 WSDS Demand (ML/year) 2012 WSDS Yield (ML/year)
Historical
Climate
Median Climate Change Dry Climate Change Return to Dry
Conditions
(1997 – 2009) 2011 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060
Regulated Goulburn 20,449 22,956 28,301 33,490 33,490 33,490 33,490 33,490 33,490
Regulated Murray 5,108 5,508 6,317 5,593 5,593 5,593 5,593 5,593 5,593
Sunday Creek (Broadford & Kilmore)
System
1,446 2,054 4,146 2,086 1,818 1,693 1,736 1,326 1,374
Nine Mile Creek (Longwood) System 53 54 57 72 70 63 63 63 65
Mollisons Creek (Pyalong) System 41 48 63 37 35 35 32 32 35
Brewery Creek (Woods Point) System 29 29 28 30 30 30 30 30 30
Yea River (Yea) System 244 290 405 438 438 438 438 438 438
Steavenson River (Marysville & Buxton)
System
135 219 262 462 462 462 462 462 462
Seven Creeks (Strathbogie) System 18 17 17 23 23 23 23 23 23
Seven Creeks (Euroa & Violet Town)
System
775 843 988 710 630 560 567 504 540
Delatite River (Mansfield) System 560 710 1,083 830 750 680 680 530 510
Delatite River (Merrijig & Sawmill
Settlement) System
68 87 136 235 235 235 235 235 235
Katunga 53 58 68 77 77 77 77 77 77
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 37
4.7 Alternative Water Atlas
An Alternative Water Atlas has been developed to identify potential sources
of alternative water that may form part of the future supply-demand
balance.
The objectives of the Alternative Water Atlas from the Water Supply
Demand Strategy Guidelines (DSE, 2011a) are to:
Identify the volumes of stormwater, recycled water and other
alternative water sources available within the works of the
Corporation (including wetlands and retardation basins) and/or local
council;
Help to inform future opportunities for the use of treated stormwater,
recycled water and other alternative water sources in the control of
either a water corporation or local council;
Be presented in any way that is considered appropriate for the
relevant water system, from a sophisticated computer model to a
simple graphical representation.
The Alternative Water Atlas is located in Appendix 2.
Towns included in the Alternative Water Atlas in the draft WSDS fall into the
following categories:
Towns with a predicted shortfall in the supply-demand balance in the
short to medium term (Broadford, Euroa, Kilmore, Mansfield, Pyalong
and Violet Town);
GVW’s largest towns (Shepparton and Mooroopna);
Towns with major redevelopment (Marysville).
For the final WSDS, an additional category of towns has been included. The
additional category is growth towns and it includes:
Alexandra
Avenel
Cobram
Kyabram
Nagambie
Numurkah
Seymour
Tatura
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 38
4.8 Options Assessment
The future supply-demand balance for each water supply system has been
considered under a range of supply and demand scenarios.
Options to address shortfalls either in the current or future supply-demand
balance are outlined in Section 5 of this document.
5. ACTION PLANS
5.1 General
The assessment of options and development of an action plan to address
any current or future shortfalls in the supply-demand balance for each
water supply system was undertaken by Consultant GHD. The outcomes are
documented in a report titled ‘Report for Water Supply Demand Strategy
2011-2060, Supply and Demand Options Assessment’ (GHD, 2011c).
A summary of the supply-demand balance, options considered and an
action plan for each water supply system is included in this section of the
Water Supply Demand Strategy.
5.2 Brewery Creek System – Woods Point
5.2.1 Overview of Supply-Demand Balance
The town of Woods Point is supplied from a gravity diversion weir
on Brewery Creek. A supplementary supply is available from the
Goulburn River downstream of Brewery Creek. Supply is from
Brewery Creek provided that a passing flow of 0.2ML/day is met. If
the passing flow is not achieved, supply is from the Goulburn River.
There is no passing flow limit on supply from the Goulburn River.
The current Bulk Entitlement for Woods Point is 30ML per year.
There is currently no passing flow limitation on diversions from the
Goulburn River and the full Bulk Entitlement is expected to be
available from the Goulburn River in all climate scenarios. This
results in the yield currently equalling the bulk entitlement for all
supply scenarios (represented as baseline – median cc in Figure
5.1). Baseline demand is currently similar to the Bulk Entitlement.
The supply-demand balance for the Brewery Creek system is
shown in Figure 5.1.
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 39
Figure 5.1: Supply-Demand Balance for the Brewery Creek System
Note: The line shown in Figure 5.1 titled ‘Baseline – Median CC’ represents yield under a medium
climate change scenario. This term is used in all supply-demand balance figures in this
section.
For Woods Point there is no difference between a low yield, median
climate change or high yield scenario, as the Bulk Entitlement is
the limiting factor in all scenarios.
5.2.2 Demand and Supply Options
The baseline demand for Woods Point is currently similar to the
available supply. There is no growth currently forecast for Woods
Point. Customers in Woods Point currently do not have individual
meters and the level of non revenue water is currently estimated. A
total of 15ML per annum of non revenue water is currently
included in the baseline demand forecast.
Future actions to improve the supply-demand balance would
involve:
Verifying the level of non revenue water through customer
metering; and
Implementing actions to reduce non revenue water.
The installation of customer metering is scheduled to be
undertaken during 2012. This will potentially result in a reduction
in demand which should be monitored.
Given that there is currently no shortfall in supply at Woods Point,
non-revenue water reduction should only be undertaken if it is
economically justified.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Sys
tem
Yie
ld (
ML/a
)
Year
BASELINE - MEDIAN CC
BASELINE DEMAND
HIGH DEMAND
LOW DEMAND
SUPPLY DEMAND BALANCE
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 40
5.2.3 Action Plan for the Brewery Creek System
Table 5-1 provides a summary of recommended actions for the
Brewery Creek system.
Table 5-1: Summary of Actions for the Brewery Creek System
Actions Timeframe Estimated
Cost
Short Term (2012-2018)
Monitor demand levels following the
installation of customer metering 2012 -
2018
Verify distribution system non-revenue
losses and if real and economically
justified implement programs to reduce
losses.
2012 -
2018 $5,000
Medium Term (2018-2030)
No specific actions
Long Term (2030-2060)
No specific actions
5.3 Delatite River System – Mansfield
5.3.1 Overview of Supply-Demand Balance
Mansfield has a gravity diversion from the Delatite River to Ritchie
Reservoir No.1 and Ritchie Reservoir No.2 which have a combined
storage capacity of 530ML. The construction of Ritchie Reservoir
No.2 was a recommendation from the previous WSDS (GVW
2055).
Water is transferred from the first two Reservoirs to the 45ML
capacity No.3 Reservoir at Mansfield Water Treatment Plant.
The Bulk Entitlement is 2,600ML over a two year period. The
allowable diversion is zero when streamflow is below 18ML/day
and has a stepped scale up to 4.4ML/day of diversion for River
flows greater than 32.2ML/day.
A schematic of the Mansfield supply system is shown in Figure 5.2.
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 41
Figure 5.2: Schematic of Mansfield Supply System (Source: SKM,
2009a)
The current baseline demand for Mansfield is 560ML per year. The
supply-demand balance for the Delatite River system is shown in
Figure 5.3.
Figure 5.3: Supply-Demand Balance for the Delatite River System
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Sys
tem
Yie
ld (
ML/a
)
Year
BASELINE - MEDIAN CC
HIGH YIELD
LOW YIELD
BASELINE DEMAND
HIGH DEMAND
LOW DEMAND
SUPPLY DEMAND BALANCE
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 42
5.3.2 Community Consultation
A shortfall in the supply-demand balance is predicted for Mansfield
within the medium to long term.
The following community consultation was undertaken to obtain
feedback on future demand and supply options for Mansfield:
A fact sheet was prepared and placed on the GVW website;
The fact sheet and the location of a community information
booth were advertised in the local newspaper;
An information booth was setup outside of a local
supermarket on 24 November 2011.
Feedback received from consultation can be summarised as
follows:
A number of customers indicated that additional storage to
provide improved water supply security would be supported.
A number of customers supported demand side initiatives
such as reducing leakage, rainwater harvesting and third
pipe systems.
General feedback was that GVW should consider a range of
demand and supply side options. No strong preferences were
provided for demand or supply side options.
5.3.3 Demand and Supply Options
A shortfall in the supply demand balance is currently predicted in
the medium to long term. Based on baseline demand and a
medium climate change supply scenario, actions would need to be
undertaken by 2033. Actions may need to be brought forward if
higher demand or increased climate change scenarios occur. The
demand side options shown in Table 5-2 have been considered for
Mansfield.
It should be noted that there are no major customers, which limits
opportunities for any significant stormwater harvesting or recycling
schemes. GVW currently supplies recycled water to the Mansfield
Golf Course.
A feasibility study for a third pipe recycled water scheme for new
development was completed in the last five years. The outcome of
the study was that the scale of new development in Mansfield is
not large enough for a third pipe scheme to be economically viable.
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 43
Table 5-2: Assessment of Demand Side Options
Option Adopted
Saving (ML
per year)
Likely Impact on
Future Supply
Side Works
(years deferral)
Basis
Capital assistance for
stormwater harvesting for
Council park / garden
irrigation
2 0.1 Based on substituting
50% of Council depot and
median strip demand.
Leak reduction in the
distribution system
18 1.2 Based on a reduction of
non revenue water from
12% to 8%.
Free water audits with water
efficiency recommendations
for rural/residential customers
with use >1ML per year
3.5 0.2 Based on a 30% saving
for 50% of audited
customers.
Promotion of water efficient
appliances and rebates to the
Public
8.0 0.5 Based on 1.5% demand
reduction.
The demand side options will have minimal impact on deferral of
future supply side actions. Leak reduction in the distribution
system is the supply side option that is likely to achieve most
benefit for the supply-demand balance.
Supply side options can be implemented in three stages. The first
stage would involve the construction of a booster pump station to
enable the full Bulk Entitlement diversion rate to be accessed. The
current diversion rate is limited by the capacity of existing gravity
pipelines. The first stage would defer major capital works costs by
over five years.
The second stage of supply side options is shown in Table 5-3.
Note that options which include additional storage will have new
200ML storages constructed in two separate stages.
Table 5-3: Assessment of Long Term Supply Side Improvement Options
Option A Option B Option C Option D
Description New gravity
pipeline and
additional storage
New pumped
pipeline and
additional storage
Raw water from
Lake Eildon
Pump from Delatite
River and additional
storage
Capacity
(ML/d)
7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5
Capital Cost $10.3M $10M $8.6M $7.7M
Net Present
Cost
$2.2M $2.2M $2.2M $1.7M
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 44
Option A Option B Option C Option D
Advantages No pumping costs
Retain existing
pipe easements
and operating rules
Retain existing
pipe easements
and operating
rules
No storage
required
Additional security
as not reliant on
stream flow
Shorter pipeline
required then
Options A and B
Disadvantages Longer pipeline
required than
Option C and D
Risk that existing
pipeline needs to
be replaced earlier
increasing cost
Longer pipeline
required than
Option C and D
Pumping costs
Risk that existing
pipeline needs to
be replaced
earlier increasing
cost
Various approvals
required for new
extraction point
Pumping costs
Various approvals
required for new
extraction point
Pumping costs
TBL Rank =1 =1 4 3
Conclusion Likely to be more
expensive than
Option B although
preference should
be confirmed
following options
assessment
Potential saving
over Option A
although
preference should
be confirmed
following options
assessment
Not preferred as
all costs upfront
Potential savings
over Options A and
B, additional
investigations
required to confirm
if feasible
The long term options considered will require a change to the Bulk
Entitlement diversion rate from 4.4ML/day to 7.5ML/day.
Diversions could however move to a winter fill arrangement where
diversions would only be undertaken during months with highest
flows in the Delatite River.
5.3.4 Action Plan for the Delatite River System
Table 5-4 provides a summary of recommended actions for the
Delatite River system. The impact of implementing the action plan
on the supply-demand balance is shown in Figure 5.4.
Table 5-4: Summary of Actions for the Delatite River (Mansfield) System
Actions Timeframe Estimated Cost
Short Term (2012-2018)
Verify distribution system non-revenue losses and if real and
economically justified implement program to reduce losses 2012-2018 $16,000
Medium Term (2018-2030)
No specific actions
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 45
Actions Timeframe Estimated Cost
Long Term (2030-2060)
Construct pipeline booster pump station 2033 $0.3 m
Design and construct replacement pipeline and pump station 2039 $4.8 m
Design and construct 200 ML storage 2039 $2.7 m
Increase Delatite River Weir daily extraction limit to 7.5 ML/d 2039
Design and construct 200 ML storage expansion 2053 $2.1 m
Figure 5.4: Future Supply-Demand Balance for the Delatite River System
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Sys
tem
Yie
ld (
ML/a
)
Year
BASELINE -
MEDIAN CC
BASELINE DEMAND
HIGH DEMAND
LOW DEMAND
AUGMENTED
SUPPLY
SUPPLY DEMAND BALANCE: PROPOSED AUGMENTATION
Additional 200 ML storage
Replace pipeline and pump
station
Increased BE diversion rate
Booster pump
station
Additional 200ML storage
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 46
5.4 Upper Delatite River System – Merrijig and Sawmill Settlement
5.4.1 Overview of Supply-Demand Balance
The Upper Delatite River system supplies the townships of Merrijig
and Sawmill Settlement. Water is diverted from the Delatite River
by pumping. The Bulk Entitlement is 235ML with allowable
diversion commencing at a minimum River flow of 5ML/day,
scaling up to a maximum of 2.8ML/day when the River flow is
greater than 7.8ML/day.
The baseline demand is estimated to be 68ML per year.
The yield of the system is defined as the bulk entitlement diversion
limit of 235ML. For the Upper Delatite River system there is no
difference between a low yield, median climate change or high
yield scenario, as the Bulk Entitlement is the limiting factor in all
scenarios.
The supply system has limited off stream storage and streamflow
needs to be sustained above the minimum threshold for
diversions. Analysis has shown that streamflows are predicted to
fall below the diversion threshold in the order of once every twenty
years for a duration of several weeks.
The most practical and economical method of addressing this
potential risk of shortfall is through water cartage. This is possible
due to the relatively small demand within the system and predicted
low frequency of the need for water cartage.
The supply-demand balance for the Upper Delatite River system is
shown in Figure 5.5. Note that supply scenarios are represented by
a single line (baseline – median cc), as the Bulk Entitlement is the
limiting factor for system yield.
Figure 5.5: Supply-Demand Balance for the Upper Delatite River System
0
50
100
150
200
250
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Sys
tem
Yie
ld (M
L/a
)
Year
BASELINE - MEDIAN CC
BASELINE DEMAND
HIGH DEMAND
LOW DEMAND
SUPPLY DEMAND BALANCE
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 47
5.4.2 Demand and Supply Options
There is currently no predicted shortfall in the supply-demand
balance under any future scenarios.
A total of 16ML per annum of non revenue water is currently
included in the baseline demand forecast. Future actions to
improve the supply-demand balance would involve:
Verifying the level of non revenue water; and
Implementing actions to reduce non revenue water.
Given that there is currently no shortfall in supply at Upper Delatite,
non revenue water reduction should only be undertaken if it is
economically justified.
In the event that streamflows were to reduce below minimum
diversion levels, water cartage could be used as a short term
measure in extreme low flow years (estimated one year in twenty
from water resource modelling) due to the low supply volumes
required.
5.4.3 Action Plan for the Upper Delatite River System
Table 5-5 provides a summary of recommended actions for the
Upper Delatite River system.
Table 5-5: Summary of Actions for the Upper Delatite River System
Actions Timeframe Estimated Cost
Short Term (2012-2018)
Verify distribution system non-revenue losses and if
real and economically justified implement program to
reduce losses.
2012 - 2018 $5,000
Water cartage during low flow periods.
2012 - 2018
Will only be
required if extreme
low flows occur
Continued monitoring of streamflows to reduce
uncertainty in modelling of low River flows. 2012-2018
Medium Term (2018-2030)
Review strategy for water cartage during low flow
periods.
Long Term (2030-2060)
No specific actions.
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 48
5.5 Regulated Goulburn System
5.5.1 Overview of Supply-Demand Balance
The Regulated Goulburn system includes supply to 24 towns with a
combined Bulk Entitlement of 33,490ML. The supplies are secured
by the large storages of Lake Eildon, Lake Nagambie and Waranga
Basin. The supply arrangements to each of the towns supplied
from the Goulburn system are outlined below.
Alexandra/Eildon/Thornton – Water is pumped from the
Goulburn River to a water treatment plant and supplied to
Alexandra, Eildon and Thornton. The Alexandra Bulk
Entitlement is 916ML with a maximum diversion rate of
7.4ML/day. A separate 471ML Bulk Entitlement is also
available at Eildon.
Bonnie Doon – Water is pumped from Lake Eildon to a 55ML
earthen storage. The Bulk Entitlement is 112ML, with a
maximum diversion rate of 2.0ML/day.
Colbinabbin – Water is pumped from the Waranga Western
Main Channel into an earthen storage. The Bulk Entitlement
is 89ML, with a maximum diversion rate of 1.0ML/day.
Corop – Water is pumped from the Waranga Western Main
Channel into an earthen storage. The Bulk Entitlement is
44ML, with a maximum diversion rate of 1.0ML/day.
Dookie – Water is pumped from the east Goulburn main
Channel into an earthen storage. The Bulk Entitlement is
160ML with a maximum diversion rate of 2.0ML/day.
Girgarre – Water is diverted from Goulburn-Murray Water’s
12/9 channel. The Bulk Entitlement is 100ML with a
maximum diversion rate of 2.0ML/day.
Katandra West – Water is diverted from Goulburn-Murray
Water’s 2/24 channel. The Bulk Entitlement is 64ML with a
maximum diversion rate of 6.0ML/day.
Kyabram – Water is diverted from a Goulburn-Murray Water
channel. The Bulk Entitlement is 2,000ML with a maximum
diversion rate of 12.0ML/day.
Molesworth – A Bulk Entitlement has recently been
developed which grants a 15ML Bulk Entitlement per year at
a diversion rate not exceeding 0.25ML/day. The diversion
point and entitlement has been included under the existing
Alexandra Bulk Entitlement.
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 49
Murchison – Water is pumped from the Goulburn River. The
Bulk Entitlement is 350ML with a maximum diversion rate of
4.0ML/day.
Nagambie - Water is pumped from Lake Nagambie. The Bulk
Entitlement is 825ML with a maximum diversion rate of
9.0ML/day.
Rushworth - Water is pumped from the outlet channel of
Waranga Basin. The Bulk Entitlement is 530ML with a
maximum diversion rate of 4.0ML/day.
Shepparton/Mooroopna/Congupna/Tallygaroopna/Toolamba
– Water is pumped from the Goulburn River at Shepparton.
The combined Bulk Entitlement is 18,270ML.
Stanhope – Water is diverted from Goulburn-Murray Water’s
1/12/9 channel. The Bulk Entitlement is 200ML with a
maximum diversion rate of 6.0ML/day.
Tatura – Water is diverted from Goulburn-Murray Water’s 3/5
channel. The Bulk Entitlement is 2,600ML with a maximum
diversion rate of 29.0ML/day via two outlets.
Tongala – Water is diverted from Goulburn-Murray Water’s
28/9 and 16/28/9 channels. The Bulk Entitlement is
1,404ML with a maximum diversion rate of 22.0ML/day.
Seymour/Avenel/Tallarook – Water is pumped from the
Goulburn River at Seymour. The Bulk Entitlement is 5,340ML,
with a maximum diversion rate of 30ML/day.
The current baseline demand for the Regulated Goulburn system is
20,448ML per year.
Analysis of consumption data for new residential connections since
2008 indicates that new connections are using 15% less water on
average than existing connections. The baseline demand forecast
assumes that this reduction in water usage for new connections
continues in future. The demand reduction achieved by new
residential connections is likely to be related to changes in dwelling
type, increased usage of water efficient appliances, reduced
external garden/lawn areas and changes to customer behaviour.
The annual Regulated Goulburn system allocation is a direct ratio
of current inflows relative to the 99th percentile historic inflows. By
definition the bulk entitlement volume has an annual reliability of
99% as the reference 99th percentile inflow is adjusted periodically
in line with the long term trend in climate and inflows.
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 50
The 99% reliability is assumed to be retained under climate
change scenarios. A 100% allocation in at least 99% of years
achieves the required level of service target for moderate level
restrictions no more frequently on average than 1 year in 10.
The yield from bulk entitlements held in the Regulated Goulburn
system is therefore defined by the bulk entitlement which can be
supplied at 99% reliability under all supply scenarios. A low yield
scenario has been established based on transfer of Regulated
Goulburn system water to the Regulated Murray system and the
Sunday Creek system in dry years. The supply-demand balance for
the Goulburn system is shown in Figure 5.6.
Figure 5.6: Supply-Demand Balance for the Regulated Goulburn System
5.5.2 Demand and Supply Options
A shortfall in the supply-demand balance is predicted in the long
term under a low yield scenario which includes transfers to the
Regulated Murray and Sunday Creek systems.
Carryover rules have been implemented in the Regulated Goulburn
System which enables GVW to retain unused entitlement in any
given year for potential use in subsequent years (subject to
carryover rules). Carryover will provide a means to mitigate the
risks associated with the gradual reduction of the buffer between
demand and available supply.
In the long term, purchase of additional bulk entitlement may also
need to be considered.
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Sys
tem
Yie
ld (
ML/a
)
Year
BASELINE - MEDIAN CC
LOW YIELD
BASELINE DEMAND
HIGH DEMAND
LOW DEMAND
SUPPLY DEMAND BALANCE
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 51
A number of demand management opportunities will be
considered in the short term and implemented if they are
economically justified. The likely opportunities include:
Increased promotion of water efficiency;
Free water audits for high demand users;
Minimisation of distribution losses; and
Free water audits for major industrial customers.
The Alternative Water Atlas will also be used to assess
opportunities for substitution of demand, particularly at public
facilities.
5.5.3 Action Plan for the Regulated Goulburn System
The action plan for the Regulated Goulburn system is outlined in
Table 5-6.
Table 5-6: Summary of Actions for the Regulated Goulburn System
Actions Timeframe Estimated
Cost
Short Term (2012-2018)
Recognise the reduction in entitlement when substituting water to
mitigate shortfalls in other towns (Regulated Murray and Sunday
Creek System).
2012
Monitor the implementation of carryover rules, and adjust GVW
internal allocation process as the understanding of risks improves. 2012
Assess preferred opportunities for demand management and
opportunities from the Alternative Water Atlas. 2012
Monitor consumption rates in new residential connections. 2012
Verify distribution system non-revenue losses and if real and
economically justified implement program to reduce losses. 2012 - 2018 $0.2M
Medium Term (2018-2030)
No specific actions.
Long Term (2030-2060)
Consider purchasing additional entitlement from the Regulated
Goulburn System to maintain a desirable buffer to protect against
future risk and uncertainty.
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 52
5.6 Katunga Groundwater System – Katunga
5.6.1 Overview of Supply-Demand Balance
The Katunga water supply is sourced from the Katunga Deep Lead
by two groundwater bores. The annual licensed volume is 110ML
and the supply is located within the Katunga Groundwater Supply
Protection Area.
A management plan for the Katunga Groundwater Supply
Protection Area is in place which has established resource
management rules. The GVW licence is currently limited to a
maximum of 70% (77ML) and can be reduced to 50% (55ML),
depending on total groundwater use, groundwater levels and
allocations within the Goundwater Supply Protection Area.
The maximum licence allocation (70%) has been assessed as the
median climate change scenario. The minimum licence allocation
(50%) has been assessed as the low yield scenario.
The current baseline demand for Katunga is 53ML.
The supply-demand balance for the Katunga system is shown in
Figure 5.7.
Figure 5.7: Supply-Demand Balance for the Katunga System
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Sys
tem
Yie
ld (
ML/a
)
Year
BASELINE - MEDIAN CC
BASELINE DEMAND
HIGH DEMAND
LOW DEMAND
LOW YIELD
SUPPLY DEMAND BALANCE
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 53
5.6.2 Demand and Supply Options
The baseline demand for Katunga (53ML) is currently similar to the
low yield scenario (55ML).
The baseline demand currently includes 19ML of non revenue
water in the distribution system. This is based on long term
averages. A leak detection program was undertaken during
2009/2010 which identified a number of potential sources of non
revenue water. Non revenue water for 2010/2011 reduced
significantly. If the reduction in non revenue water achieved in
2010/2011 is retained, a shortfall in the supply-demand balance
under the low yield scenario would be avoided in the long term.
Water trading is permitted within the Katunga Groundwater Supply
Protection Area. GVW currently holds a 730ML entitlement for the
nearby town of Strathmerton which is currently not used.
Supply to Katunga can be increased in future through either
temporary or permanent transfer of entitlement from
Strathmerton.
5.6.3 Action Plan for the Katunga System
The action plan for the Katunga system is outlined in Table 5-7.
Table 5-7: Summary of Actions for the Katunga System
Actions Timeframe Estimated
Cost
Short Term (2012-2018)
Verify distribution system non-revenue losses and if real and
economically justified implement program to reduce losses. 2012 - 2018 $2,000
Transfer of entitlement from Strathmerton to protect against low
allocation years. 2012 - 2018
Medium Term (2018-2030)
No specific actions.
Long Term (2030-2060)
No specific actions.
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 54
5.7 Mollisons Creek System – Pyalong
5.7.1 Overview of Supply-Demand Balance
The Mollisons Creek system supplies water to Pyalong. Water is
pumped from a weir pool on Mollisons Creek into a 40ML raw
water storage basin. The Bulk Entitlement is 75ML, with a
maximum diversion rate of 0.72ML/day.
The available yield is less than the baseline demand under all
supply scenarios considered.
The supply-demand balance for the Mollisons Creek system is
shown in Figure 5.8.
Figure 5.8: Supply-Demand Balance for the Mollisons Creek System
It should be noted that the demand curves exclude raw water
storage evaporation which is taken into account in the yield curves.
Total raw water usage (including evaporation) is currently 52ML
per year.
The quality of streamflow is extremely variable with a large
increase in salinity occurring immediately after rainfall periods as
salt which has accumulated within pools is transported down the
Creek.
For the 2013-2018 Water Plan period, GVW is planning to monitor
salinity levels in Mollisons Creek and determine if future works to
improve water quality are required.
Options to improve the supply-demand balance for Pyalong should
consider their potential to improve water quality (reduce salinity)
supplied to Pyalong customers.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Sys
tem
Yie
ld (
ML/a
)
Year
BASELINE - MEDIAN CC HIGH YIELD
LOW YIELD BASELINE DEMAND
HIGH DEMAND LOW DEMAND
SUPPLY DEMAND BALANCE
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 55
5.7.2 Community Consultation
A shortfall in the supply-demand balance is predicted for Pyalong in
the short term. The following community consultation was
undertaken to obtain feedback on future demand and supply
options for Pyalong:
A fact sheet was prepared and placed on the GVW website;
A community representative was contacted to obtain
feedback on the best method to engage with the community.
The suggested method was to mail the fact sheet and a
feedback form to all customers.
The fact sheet and feedback form were mailed to all Pyalong
customers.
The draft WSDS was discussed at a meeting of the Corporate
Community Reference Committee (CCRC) on 22 February
2011. A member of the Pyalong community was present at
the CCRC meeting and the action plan for Pyalong was
discussed in detail. Commencing engagement on water
quality issues and ensuring that GVW plans for future growth
were identified as key issues for Pyalong.
5.7.3 Demand and Supply Options
A shortfall in the supply demand balance is currently predicted in
the short term.
The demand side options shown in Table 5-8 have been
considered for Pyalong. It should be noted that there are no major
customers, which limits opportunities for any significant
stormwater harvesting or recycling schemes. There is currently no
reticulated wastewater in Pyalong and therefore no opportunity for
wastewater recycling.
Table 5-8: Assessment of Demand Side Options
Option Adopted
Saving (ML
per year)
Likely Impact on
Future Supply Side
Works (years deferral)
Basis
Evaporation reduction
from the 40ML raw water
storage
6 10 Based on historical
rainfall and evaporation
data.
Leak reduction in the
distribution system
0.5 0.8 Based on a reduction of
non revenue water from
14% to 8%.
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 56
Option Adopted
Saving (ML
per year)
Likely Impact on
Future Supply Side
Works (years deferral)
Basis
Free water audits with
water efficiency
recommendations for
rural/residential
customers with use >1ML
per year
0.3 0.4 Based on a 30% saving
for 50% of audited
customers.
Promotion of water
efficient appliances and
rebates to the Public
0.5 0.8 Based on 1.5% demand
reduction.
Evaporation reduction from the raw water storage could potentially
delay supply side works for up to ten years. A fixed cover over the
raw water storage would cost approximately $1.5M or $0.25M per
ML of water saved. This is approximately double the cost of
proposed supply side augmentation options.
The supply side options which have been considered are outlined
in Table 5-9.
Table 5-9: Assessment of Supply Side Improvement Options
Option A Option B Option C Option D
Description Pipeline from
Kilmore
Pipeline from
Tooborac and
additional 20ML
storage
Additional 30ML
storage
Water Cartage in
Dry Years
Net Present Value
(over 50 years)
($3.5M) ($3.2M) ($2.4M) ($1.7M)
Advantages Existing WTP is not
required –
reduced operating
costs
Improved water
quality
Pipeline to be used to
supplement supply
only
Improved water quality
Lower capital cost
than Option A or B
Low capital cost
Disadvantages Sunday Creek
system
augmentation
would need to be
brought forward by
1 year
Feasibility needs to be
discussed with Coliban
Water
Requires additional
storage in addition to
the pipeline
No improvement in
water quality.
Lower supply
security than options
which have dual
supply sources.
Potentially long
periods of water
cartage if a return
to dry scenario
eventuated.
TBL Rank 4 3 2 1
Conclusion Lower risk than
Option B but a
longer pipeline is
required
Higher risk than
Option A but lower
costs.
Addresses supply
security but does not
improve water
quality
Lowest cost option
provided that
water quality is not
a concern
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 57
The preferred option in the short term is to implement water
cartage in dry years. This strategy is currently achievable due to the
small volumes of water that are likely to be required. In the
medium term an augmentation option should be considered
further, particularly if water quality monitoring indicates that works
are required to address salinity. The preferred augmentation option
at this stage which can address water quality is Option B to
supplement supply with a pipeline from Tooborac.
5.7.4 Action Plan for the Mollisons Creek System
The action plan for the Mollisons Creek system is outlined in
Table 5-10.
Table 5-10: Summary of Actions for the Pyalong System
Actions Timeframe Estimated Cost
Short Term (2012 -2018)
Water cartage during dry years. 2012 – 2018
Consult community on water quality and monitor salinity. 2012 – 2018
Verify distribution system non-revenue losses and if real and
economically justified implement program to reduce losses. 2012 - 2018 $3,000
Implement demand management initiatives if they are
economically justified. 2012 - 2018
Medium Term (2018-2030)
Tooborac pipeline and booster pump station. 2025 $3.00M
20 ML offstream storage. 2030 $0.60M
Long Term (2030-2060)
Pyalong WTP refurbishment. 2040 $0.40M
The impact of implementing the action plan on the supply-demand
balance is shown in Figure 5.9.
Figure 5.9: Future Supply-Demand Balance for the Mollisons Creek System
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 58
5.8 Regulated Murray System
5.8.1 Overview of Supply-Demand Balance
The Regulated Murray System supplies eight towns with a
combined Bulk Entitlement of 5,593ML. The supply arrangement
for each of these towns is described below:
Barmah – Water is pumped from the River Murray. The
nominal Bulk Entitlement is 82ML with a maximum diversion
rate of 1.2ML/day.
Cobram/Strathmerton/Yarroweyah – Water is pumped from
the River Murray at Cobram. The nominal Bulk Entitlement is
3,525ML, with a maximum diversion rate of 18ML/day.
Katamatite – Water is diverted from Goulburn-Murray Water’s
7/3 channel. The nominal Bulk Entitlement is 84ML, with a
maximum diversion rate of 1.0ML/day.
Nathalia – Water is pumped from the Broken Creek. The
nominal Bulk Entitlement is 652ML, with a maximum
diversion rate of 5.1ML/day.
Numurkah/Wunghnu – Water is pumped from the Broken
Creek at Numurkah. The nominal Bulk Entitlement is
1,206ML, with a maximum diversion rate of 8.5ML/day. The
raw water supply for Numurkah will change to a Goulburn-
Murray Water channel (within the Murray system) in the next
12 months.
Picola – Water is diverted from Goulburn-Murray Water’s
9/9/9 channel. The nominal Bulk Entitlement is 44ML, with a
maximum diversion rate of 2.0ML/day.
The annual Bulk Entitlement allocation for the Regulated Murray
system is related to the general allocation for holders of high
reliability water shares. Demand in the Regulated Murray system is
approaching full utilisation of the Bulk Entitlement volume.
Shortfalls in supply have occurred in recent years due to low
allocations and have been addressed by trading Regulated
Goulburn system Bulk Entitlement.
The yield from Bulk Entitlements in the Regulated Murray system is
currently defined by the bulk entitlement volumetric limit.
Sensitivity analysis has shown that a 100% allocation can be made
in at least 90% of years under median climate change conditions
at 2030 and 2060. A 100% allocation in at least 90% of years
achieves the required level of service target for moderate level
restrictions no more frequently on average than 1 year in 10.
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 59
The supply-demand balance for the Murray system is shown in
Figure 5.10. The system yield shown for the median climate
change scenario is the yield at which the level of service target can
be met.
Figure 5.10: Supply-Demand Balance for the Regulated Murray System
5.8.2 Demand and Supply Options
Given the relatively secure position of the Regulated Goulburn
system, future shortfalls in the supply-demand balance for the
Regulated Murray system will be met through transfers from the
Regulated Goulburn system. These transfers have been accounted
for in the long term planning for the Regulated Goulburn system in
Section 5.5.
In the long term, GVW may need to consider purchasing additional
Bulk Entitlement for the Murray system to reduce reliance on
transfers from the Regulated Goulburn system.
Industrial demand currently represents 42% of demand in the
Regulated Murray system and is a potential area of uncertainty in
demand forecasting.
A number of demand management opportunities will be
considered in the short term and implemented if they are
economically justified. The likely opportunities include:
Increased promotion of water efficiency;
Free water audits for high demand users;
Minimisation of distribution losses; and
Free water audits for major industrial customers.
The Alternative Water Atlas will also be used to assess
opportunities for substitution of demand, particularly at public
facilities.
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Sys
tem
Yie
ld (
ML/a
)
Year
BASELINE - MEDIAN CC
BASELINE DEMAND
HIGH DEMAND
LOW DEMAND
SUPPLY DEMAND BALANCE
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 60
5.8.3 Action Plan for the Regulated Murray System
The action plan for the Regulated Murray system is outlined in
Table 5-11.
Table 5-11: Summary of Actions for the Regulated Murray System
Actions Timeframe Estimated
Cost
Short Term (2012-2018)
Monitor changes in industrial use as it represents a large proportion
of total demand. Ongoing
Assess preferred opportunities for demand management and
opportunities from the Alternative Water Atlas. 2012
Verify distribution system non-revenue losses and if real and
economically justified implement program to reduce losses. 2012 - 2018 $35,000
Medium Term (2018-2030)
No specific actions.
Long Term (2030-2060)
Consider the purchase of additional entitlement from the Regulated
Murray System to reduce the reliance on annual transfers from
Regulated Goulburn System bulk entitlements.
2040
5.9 Nine Mile Creek System – Longwood
5.9.1 Overview of Supply-Demand Balance
The Nine Mile Creek system supplies Longwood. Water is diverted
from a 27ML on stream storage (Nine Mile Creek Reservoir). The
Bulk Entitlement is 120ML, with a maximum daily diversion rate of
1.0ML/day.
Following a dam safety review in 2005, the Nine Mile Creek
Reservoir has been operated at a reduced capacity of 22ML. Dam
safety works are planned to be undertaken to restore the full
capacity of 27ML.
A recommendation from the previous WSDS was to install
permanent stream flow monitoring at Longwood. A stream flow
monitor has been installed and is recording data that will reduce
the uncertainty in water resource modelling for Longwood.
The current baseline demand for Longwood is 53ML per year.
The supply-demand balance for the Nine Mile Creek system is
shown in Figure 5.11.
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 61
Figure 5.11: Supply-Demand Balance for the Nine Mile Creek System
5.9.2 Demand and Supply Options
There are no major customers in Longwood, which limits
opportunities for any significant stormwater harvesting or recycling
schemes. There is currently no reticulated wastewater in Longwood
and therefore no opportunity for wastewater recycling.
Non revenue water in the distribution system currently accounts for
14ML of demand in the baseline forecast. Leak detection
programs have been undertaken in recent years which have
reduced non revenue water from significantly higher levels. Leak
detections programs should be continued in future if economically
justified.
The dam safety improvement works which will return the Nine Mile
Creek Reservoir to 27ML capacity are expected to provide
adequate supply security for the forecast period.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Sys
tem
Yie
ld (
ML/a
)
Year
BASELINE - MEDIAN CC HIGH YIELD
LOW YIELD BASELINE DEMAND
HIGH DEMAND LOW DEMAND
SUPPLY DEMAND BALANCE
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 62
5.9.3 Action Plan for the Nine Mile Creek System
The action plan for the Nine Mile Creek system is outlined in
Table 5-12.
Table 5-12 : Summary of Actions for the Nine Mile Creek System
Actions Timeframe Estimated
Cost
Short Term (2012 - 2018)
Verify distribution system non-revenue losses and if real and
economically justified implement program to reduce losses 2012 - 2018 $3,000
Dam safety works to rebuild dam to provide original design capacity
of 27 ML. 2013 $3.2M
Continued gauging of storage inflows to reduce uncertainty in current
yield estimates. 2012 - 2018
Medium Term (2018-2030)
No specific actions.
Long Term (2030-2060)
No specific actions.
5.10 Seven Creeks and Mt Hut Creek System – Euroa and Violet Town
5.10.1 Overview of Supply-Demand Balance
A group of storages on the Seven Creeks and Mt Hut Creek,
including Mountain Hut Creek Reservoir, Waterhouse Reservoir,
Polly McQuinns Reservoir and Abbinga Reservoir harvest water
which is then supplied to Euroa by gravity or through pumping.
Treated water is transferred to Violet Town from Euroa. A
schematic of the Euroa and Violet Town system is illustrated in
Figure 5.12.
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 63
Figure 5.12: Schematic of the Euroa and Violet Town Water Supply System
The Bulk Entitlement for Euroa and Violet Town is 1,990ML, with a
maximum extraction rate of 12ML/day. The current baseline
demand is 775ML per year.
The current yield (at 90% reliability) is estimated to be less than
the baseline demand. The supply-demand balance for the Seven
Creeks and Mt Hut Creek system is shown in Figure 5.13.
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 64
Figure 5.13: Supply-Demand Balance for the Seven Creeks and Mt Hut Creek System
5.10.2 Community Consultation
A shortfall in the supply-demand balance is predicted for Euroa and
Violet Town in the short term. The following community
consultation was undertaken to obtain feedback on future demand
and supply options for Euroa and Violet Town:
A fact sheet was prepared and placed on the GVW website;
The fact sheet and the location of a community information
booth were advertised in the local newspaper;
An information booth was setup outside of local
supermarkets in Euroa and Violet Town on 11 November
2011.
The draft WSDS was presented to the Euroa Rotary Club on
19 January 2012.
The draft WSDS was presented to the Violet Town Action
Group on 07 March 2012.
Feedback received from consultation can be summarised as
follows:
A number of customers indicated that additional storage to
provide improved water supply security would be supported.
Customers provided various suggestions for the location of
the storage.
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Sys
tem
Yie
ld (
ML/a
)
Year
BASELINE - MEDIAN CC
HIGH YIELD
LOW YIELD
BASELINE DEMAND
HIGH DEMAND
LOW DEMAND
SUPPLY DEMAND BALANCE
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 65
A number of customers supported demand side initiatives
such as reducing leakage, and rainwater harvesting.
General feedback from the information booth was that GVW
should consider a range of demand and supply side options.
No strong preferences were provided for demand or supply
side options.
A number of Euroa Rotary Club members support the
construction of additional storage. Proposals for large
irrigation storages on Seven Creeks which were investigated
in the past (30+ years ago) were suggested by Rotary Club
members as potential storage options.
The large irrigation storages suggested are however a
significantly greater size than required for GVW, not
economically viable for GVW and may not be feasible due to
environmental impacts. The large irrigation storage options
suggested have not been considered further in this WSDS.
The Violet Town Action Group endorsed the actions from the
draft WSDS.
A public submission endorsed the actions from the draft
WSDS and suggested that GVW should continue to maintain
a focus on water conservation.
5.10.3 Demand and Supply Options
A shortfall in the supply demand balance is currently predicted in
the short term. The demand side options shown in Table 5-13 have
been considered for Euroa and Violet Town.
It should be noted that there are no major customers, which limits
opportunities for any significant stormwater harvesting or recycling
schemes. GVW currently supplies recycled water to the Euroa Golf
Course.
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 66
Table 5-13: Assessment of Demand Side Options
Option Adopted
Saving
(ML per year)
Likely Impact on
Future Supply Side
Works (years deferral)
Basis
Capital assistance for evaporation
and backwash reduction at Council
pool
2.3 0.3 Based on 50%
demand reduction.
Leak reduction in the distribution
system
5.0 0.7 Based on a
reduction of non
revenue water from
14% to 8%.
Free water audits with water
efficiency recommendations for
rural/residential customers with use
>1ML per year
1.4 0.2 Based on a 30%
saving for 50% of
audited customers.
Promotion of water efficient
appliances and rebates to the Public
9.0 1.3 Based on 1.5%
demand reduction.
Recycling of Water Treatment Plant
sludge supernatant
30.0 4.3 Based on existing
volumes that are
not recycled.
The demand side options which will have the most impact on
deferring future supply side works are recycling of sludge
supernatant at the Water Treatment Plant, promotion of water
efficient appliances and leak reduction in the distribution system.
Demand side options on their own cannot address the medium to
long term shortfall in the supply-demand balance. A number of
supply side options were considered from which a shortlist of five
has been developed.
The shortlisted supply side options are detailed in Table 5-14.
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 67
Table 5-14 Assessment of Shortlisted Euroa and Violet Town Supply Options (Source: GHD 2011c)
Criteria A: Expand Abbinga Reservoir to
1000 ML (300 ML new storage+
upgrade existing storage to 700
ML)
B: New 400 ML storage at
site near Koorana and
upgrade Abbinga Reservoir to
600 ML
C: New 1000 ML
storage at site
near Koorana
D: New 1000 ML
storage at site near
Seven Creeks Estate
E: Supplement supply with
Goulburn system water from
the East Goulburn Main
Channel
Capital Cost $12 M $18 M $14 M $16 M $19 M
Net Present Value ($6.4M) ($10.8 M) ($10.0M) ($11.0M) ($13.6M)
Land ? ? ?
Approvals ?
Environmental/Trees ? ? ? ?
Energy
Security
TBL Rank 1 5 2 4 3
Advantage Less land acquisition and new
pipe/pump infrastructure
required
Added security by having
independent storages.
Retain Abbinga until new storage is constructed to maintain supply security.
Could sell Abbinga land to offset cost of new land.
Disadvantage
Requires land acquisition at
two sites
Requires new site and all associated
approvals and infrastructure
Highest cost option
Conclusion Preferred subject to detailed
costing and construction
planning
Not preferred Preferred only if reconstruction of Abbinga
to 1000 ML is not technically feasible or
significantly more expensive
Not preferred
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 68
The preferred supply side option is to expand storage capacity at
the existing Abbinga Reservoir site to 1,000ML. This would be
achieved in two stages.
The first stage would involve the construction of a new 300ML
storage. The second stage would involve reconstruction of the
existing Abbinga Reservoir to a capacity of 700ML.
5.10.4 Action Plan for the Seven Creeks and Mt Hut Creek System
The action plan for the Seven Creeks and Mt Hut Creek system is
shown in Table 5-15.
Table 5-15 :Summary of Actions for the Seven Creeks and Mt Hut Creek System
Actions Timeframe Estimated Cost
Short Term (2012-2018)
Recycle WTP sludge supernatant 2014 $0.4 M
Promote water efficiency 2013 - 2018
Verify distribution system non-revenue losses and
if real and economically justified implement
program to reduce losses
2013 -2018
$26,000
Purchase land for future 300ML storage 2016 $0.4 M
Construct new 300 ML storage and
interconnecting pipework 2018
$3.7 M
Construct new offtake pump station on Seven
Creeks (10 ML/d) 2018 $0.3 M
Medium Term (2018-2030)
Replace 3 km of Gooram pipeline (3 km x DN300) 2020 $1.6 M
Repair Abbinga and increase to 700 ML 2030 $6.0 M
Long Term (2030-2060)
No specific actions
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 69
The impact of implementing the action plan on the supply-demand
balance is shown in Figure 5.14.
Figure 5.14: Future Supply-Demand Balance for the Seven Creeks and Mt Hut Creek
System
5.11 Seven Creeks System – Strathbogie
5.11.1 Overview of Supply-Demand Balance
The Seven Creeks (Strathbogie) system supplies the township of
Strathbogie. Water is diverted from Seven Creeks by pumping.
There is currently no Bulk Entitlement for this system. A draft Bulk
Entitlement has recently been prepared which is based on a yearly
Bulk Entitlement of 23ML at a diversion rate not exceeding
0.5ML/day.
The baseline demand is estimated to be 18ML per year.
Historically streamflow has been sufficient to maintain supply to
the town, including the recent drought period. The yield of the
system has been defined as the proposed Bulk Entitlement of
23ML per year. There is currently no passing flow limitation in the
proposed Bulk Entitlement. This results in the yield currently
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Sys
tem
Yie
ld (
ML/a
)
Year
BASELINE - MEDIAN CC BASELINE DEMAND
HIGH DEMAND LOW DEMAND
AUGMENTED SUPPLY AUGMENTED DEMAND
SUPPLY DEMAND BALANCE: PROPOSED AUGMENTATION
Additional 300
ML storage
Reconstruct
Abbinga Reservoir
to 700 ML
Recycle WTP
sludge
supernatant
water
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 70
equalling the bulk entitlement for all supply scenarios (represented
as baseline – median cc in Figure 5.15)
The supply-demand balance for the Seven Creeks (Strathbogie)
system is shown in Figure 5.15.
Figure 5.15: Supply-Demand Balance for the Seven Creeks (Strathbogie) System
For Strathbogie there is no difference between a low yield, median
climate change or high yield scenario, as the proposed Bulk
Entitlement will be the limiting factor in all scenarios.
5.11.2 Demand and Supply Options
There is currently no predicted shortfall in the supply-demand
balance under any future scenarios.
A total of 14ML per annum of non revenue water is currently
included in the baseline demand forecast. Future actions to
improve the supply-demand balance would involve:
Verifying the level of non revenue water; and
Implementing actions to reduce non revenue water.
Given that there is currently no shortfall in supply at Strathbogie,
non revenue water reduction should only be undertaken if it is
economically justified.
In the event that streamflows were to reduce below historical lows,
water cartage could be used as a short term measure in dry years
due to the low supply volumes required.
0
5
10
15
20
25
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Sys
tem
Yie
ld (
ML/a
)
Year
BASELINE - MEDIAN CC
BASELINE DEMAND
HIGH DEMAND
LOW DEMAND
SUPPLY DEMAND BALANCE
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 71
5.11.3 Action Plan for the Strathbogie System
Table 5-16 displays an action plan for the Strathbogie system.
Table 5-16 Summary of Actions for the Strathbogie System
Actions Timeframe Estimated
Cost
Short Term (2012-2018)
Verify distribution system non-revenue losses and if real and
economically justified implement program to reduce losses 2012 - 2018 $1,000
Water carting in dry years if required
Medium Term (2018-2030)
No specific actions
Long Term (2030-2060)
No specific actions
5.12 Steavenson River System – Marysville and Buxton
5.12.1 Overview of Supply-Demand Balance
The Steavenson River system supplies Marysville and Buxton from
a diversion point on the Steavenson River. Water diversions are
transferred by a gravity pipeline to the 100ML Aub Cuzens
Reservoir. The Bulk Entitlement is 462ML per year with a
maximum diversion rate of 2.0ML/day when river flows exceed
4.0ML/day.
Bushfires in 2009 resulted in the loss of a significant number of
properties supplied by this system. The current baseline demand is
significantly below pre bushfire demand levels. It is currently
assumed that properties will be re-established over the next 5-10
years.
An analysis of the impacts of the bushfires on stream hydrology
(SKM, 2009) estimates a 30% reduction in runoff in years of peak
reduction. Water resource modelling of a scenario involving a 30%
reduction in streamflow has shown that the Bulk Entitlement of
462ML per year can continue to be accessed at the required level
of service. For the Steavenson River system there is no difference
between a low yield, median climate change or high yield scenario,
as the Bulk Entitlement is the limiting factor in all scenarios.
The supply-demand balance for the Steavenson River system is
shown in Figure 5.16. Note that supply scenarios are represented
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 72
by a single line (baseline – median cc), as the Bulk Entitlement is
the limiting factor for system yield.
Figure 5.16: Supply-Demand Balance for the Steavenson River System
5.12.2 Demand and Supply Options
There are no major customers in Marysville, which limits
opportunities for any significant stormwater harvesting or recycling
schemes. There may however be opportunities if any large scale
developments are undertaken to rebuild properties. The Alternative
Water Atlas should reflect any opportunities for alternative water
supplies as part of the redevelopment of Marysville.
Recycled water from the Marysville Wastewater Management
Facility is currently supplied to the Marysville Golf Club.
Non revenue water in the distribution system currently accounts for
79ML of demand in the baseline forecast. Leak detection
programs should be undertaken in future if economically justified.
5.12.3 Action Plan for the Steavenson River System
Table 5-17 displays an action plan for the Steavenson River
system.
Table 5-17 Summary of Actions for the Steavenson River System
Actions Timeframe
Estimated
Cost
Short Term (2012-2018)
Assess opportunities from the Alternative Water Atlas. 2012
Verify distribution system non-revenue losses and implement program 2012 - 2018 $10,000
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Sys
tem
Yie
ld (
ML/a
)
Year
BASELINE - MEDIAN CC
BASELINE DEMAND
HIGH DEMAND
LOW DEMAND
SUPPLY DEMAND BALANCE
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 73
Actions Timeframe
Estimated
Cost
to reduce losses if economically justified (Note that loss reduction
has been assumed in the demand forecast).
Continued gauging of streamflow and assessment to monitor the
progressive impacts from bushfires. 2012 - 2018
Medium Term (2018-2030)
Monitor and respond to growth and long term impact of bushfires on
streamflow.
Long Term (2030-2060)
Monitor and respond to growth and long term impact of bushfires on
streamflow.
5.13 Sunday Creek System – Broadford and Kilmore
5.13.1 Overview of Supply-Demand Balance
The towns of Broadford, Clonbinane, Heathcote Junction, Kilmore,
Wandong and Waterford Park are supplied from the Sunday Creek
system. Water is harvested and stored in the on stream Sunday
Creek Reservoir which has a capacity of 1,700ML. Water may also
be harvested from diversion weirs on Hazels and Harpers Creeks to
Hollowback Reservoir. The bulk entitlement is 2,875ML in any one
year with a ten year average to not exceed 22,380ML. A flow of
4.3ML/day can be taken from the diversion weirs and 16.3ML/day
from the storage.
The Broadford Water Treatment Plant (WTP) supplies Broadford,
Waterford Park and Clonbinane. The Broadford WTP receives water
from either Sunday Creek Reservoir by gravity or a pumped supply
from the Goulburn River.
The Kilmore WTP supplies Kilmore, Heathcote Junction and
Wandong. The Kilmore WTP receives water from Sunday Creek
Reservoir and Hazel and Harpers Creeks via Hollowback Reservoir.
A drought relief pump station can currently transfer 3ML/day of
Goulburn River water from Broadford to Kilmore via Sunday Creek
and Hollowback Reservoirs.
Bushfires in 2009 resulted in large parts of the Sunday Creek
supply catchment being burnt. Analysis of the impacts of the
bushfires on stream hydrology (SKM, 2009b) estimated a 21%
reduction in runoff in years of peak reduction.
Reductions in streamflows from bushfire impacts or climate
change in the Sunday Creek catchment will increase the volume of
water required to be transferred from the Goulburn system.
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 74
A recommendation from the previous WSDS (GVW 2055) was to
construct a pump station and pipeline from the Goulburn River to
Broadford to improve supply security for this system. This pipeline
has been constructed and can provide a flow of up to 12ML/day to
Broadford from the Goulburn system bulk entitlement for Seymour.
A schematic of the Sunday Creek supply system is shown in
Figure 5.17.
Figure 5.17: Schematic of Sunday Creek Supply System
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 75
The current baseline demand for the Sunday Creek system is
1,500ML per year. A high growth rate, particularly at Kilmore, is
currently being experienced and is expected to continue in future
due to the proximity of towns in this system to Melbourne.
The current yield for this system is based on Broadford being
supplied from the Goulburn River when Sunday Creek Reservoir
falls below 80% of capacity. Future shortfalls in the supply-demand
balance can be addressed through diversion of additional water
from the Goulburn River.
The supply-demand balance for the Sunday Creek system is shown
in Figure 5.18.
Figure 5.18: Supply-Demand Balance for the Sunday Creek System
5.13.2 Community Consultation
A shortfall in the supply-demand balance is predicted for the
Sunday Creek system in the medium term.
The following community consultation was undertaken to obtain
feedback on future demand and supply options from communities
supplied from the Sunday Creek system:
A fact sheet was prepared and placed on the GVW website;
The fact sheet and the location of a community information
booth were advertised in the local newspaper;
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Sys
tem
Yie
ld (
ML/a
)
Year
BASELINE - MEDIAN CC
HIGH YIELD
LOW YIELD
BASELINE DEMAND
HIGH DEMAND
LOW DEMAND
SUPPLY DEMAND BALANCE
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 76
A community representative was contacted to determine the
most appropriate location for an information booth;
An information booth was setup outside of local newsagents
in Kilmore and Broadford on 17 November 2011.
The draft WSDS was presented to a meeting of the Kilmore
Rotary Club on 21 February 2012.
Feedback received from consultation can be summarised as
follows:
A number of customers indicated that additional usage of
Goulburn system water would be supported.
A number of customers supported demand side initiatives
such as reducing leakage, and rainwater harvesting for new
properties.
A number of customers in Broadford highlighted the
environmental values of Sunday Creek and were supportive
of options that provide alternative supply sources to Sunday
Creek.
It was suggested at the Kilmore Rotary Club meeting that if
an integrated water management option becomes preferred
in future (for example recycled water in new developments),
GVW should seek to influence the planning of new
development areas.
General feedback was that GVW should consider a range of
demand and supply side options. No strong preferences were
provided for demand or supply side options.
5.13.3 Demand and Supply Options
A shortfall in the supply demand balance is currently predicted in
the medium term.
The demand side options shown in Table 5-18 have been
considered for the Sunday Creek system. There is currently one
major customer in the Sunday Creek system.
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 77
Table 5-18: Assessment of Demand Side Options
Option Adopted
Saving (ML
per year)
Likely Impact on
Future Supply Side
Works (years deferral)
Basis
Capital assistance for
water recycling at
major customer
3.0 0.1 Based on 6% demand
reduction which has been
achieved for industry in
Melbourne.
Leak reduction in the
distribution system
25.0 0.5 Based on a reduction of
non revenue water from
14% to 8%.
Free water audits with
water efficiency
recommendations for
rural/residential
customers with use
>1ML per year
6.0 0.1 Based on a 30% saving
for 50% of audited
customers.
Promotion of water
efficient appliances
and rebates to the
Public
17.0 0.3 Based on 1.5% demand
reduction.
The demand side options which will have the most impact on
deferring future supply side works are promotion of water efficient
appliances and leak reduction in the distribution system. There
may be opportunities from the Alternative Water Atlas that should
be considered in the short term.
Demand side options on their own cannot address the medium to
long term shortfall in the supply-demand balance.
Development of new operating rules for this system were
considered as part of the supply side options. A new set of
operating rules which maximise the use of Goulburn system water
in dry years with existing infrastructure can defer the need for any
augmentation until approximately 2030.
Short term works (pre treatment) will be required at the Broadford
Water Treatment Plant to enable increased usage of Goulburn
system water. The timing for these works will depend on actual
peak day water demands. There is currently a large degree of
uncertainty in peak day demand forecasts due to previous periods
of water restrictions, changes to behaviour and recent above
average rainfall years.
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 78
The long term supply side option to address future shortfalls is to
construct infrastructure which can enable additional transfer of
water from the Goulburn system. The long term supply side
augmentation will involve:
Construction of a tank, pump station and interconnecting
pipeline between Broadford and Kilmore. Purchase of land
for the future tank at Kilmore should be undertaken in the
short term to secure an appropriate site;
Further augmentation of the capacity of the Broadford Water
Treatment Plant to supply treated water to Kilmore.
5.13.4 Integrated Water Management Option
An integrated water management option has been considered for
Kilmore as a possible measure to defer or avoid the next supply
side augmentation. The integrated water management option is
documented in a report titled ‘Kilmore Recycled Water Option’
(GHD, 2011d).
The integrated water management option involves reducing the
demand for potable water for new residential developments
through the construction of a third pipe system. The third pipe
system would be supplied with recycled water from the Kilmore
Wastewater Management Facility (WMF), treated to a Class A
standard. The Kilmore WMF will have additional volumes of
recycled water available in future that can either be used for
irrigation or potable water substitution.
A sensitivity analysis for the reduction in total demand achieved by
a third pipe system is shown in Table 5-19.
Table 5-19: Integrated Water Management Option Sensitivity Analysis
New
Developments
Connected
(%)
Reduction
in
Household
Usage (%)
Reduction in
Additional Future
Kilmore Demand
(%)
Potential Reduction in Total Potable Water Demand
2030 2040
ML/year % ML/year %
30% 30% 10% 40 2% 70 3%
50% 50% 25% 100 6% 170 9%
75% 30% 25% 100 6% 170 9%
75% 50% 38% 140 9% 250 13%
100% 50% 50% 185 12% 340 17%
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 79
For the purpose of assessing this option it has been assumed that
up to 75% of new developments can be connected to a third pipe
network and that up to 50% of household water usage can be
substituted with recycled water.
The reduction in potable water demand achieved by this option can
potentially defer the next supply side augmentation
(interconnecting pipeline between Broadford and Kilmore) by ten
years from 2030 to 2040.
The estimated costs associated with an integrated water
management option are shown in Table 5-20.
Table 5-20: Integrated Water Management Option Costs
Supply Side Augmentation
Only
Integrated Water
Management Option
Interconnection Pipeline $6 – $8 M (2030) $5 – 6 M (2040)
Third Pipe Reticulation Network - $3 – $8 M (2015-2030)
Class A Plant 2.5 ML/d
2.5 ML/d
- $3 – $4 M (2015)
$3 – $4 M (2030)
WMF Augmentation
(incl. irrigation)
$5 M (2015)
$5 M (2030)
$4 M (2015)
$4 M (2030)
Total Capital Cost $16 – $18 M $22 – $30 M
Net Present Cost $8 – $9 M $11 – $16 M
Both the capital cost and net present cost of the integrated water
management option are higher than supply side augmentation
only.
The integrated water management option is currently not preferred
on the following basis:
Higher cost than supply side augmentation only;
It is based on the assumption that 75% of new properties can
connect. This will be dependent on the location of new
properties relative to the source of recycled water;
The integrated water management option does not avoid the
need for future supply side augmentation.
The feasibility of the integrated water management option should
be reviewed for any future updates to the WSDS.
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 80
5.13.5 Action Plan for the Sunday Creek System
The action plan for the Sunday Creek system is shown in
Table 5-21.
Table 5-21: Summary of Actions for the Sunday Creek System
Actions Timeframe Estimated Cost
Short Term (2012 - 2018)
Monitor demands Ongoing
Assess opportunities from the Alternative Water Atlas. 2012
Verify distribution system non-revenue losses and implement program to
reduce losses if economically justified (Note that loss reduction has been
assumed in the demand forecast).
2012-2018 $50,000
Continued gauging of streamflow and assessment to monitor the
progressive impacts from bushfires. Ongoing
Review the feasibility of an integrated water management option as part of
the next WSDS update 2016
Broadford WTP Pre-Treatment Works (timing will depend on actual peak day
demand experienced).
Connection of the Drought Contingency pump station which transfers
Goulburn River water from Broadford to Sunday Creek Reservoir to a
permanent power supply.
2013-2020 $7M
Purchase land for a future tank site at Kilmore 2013 -
2018 $0.3M
Medium Term (2018-2030)
Broadford-Kilmore Interconnection pipeline, pump station and Kilmore Tank 2028-2034 $11M
Long Term (2030-2060)
Broadford WTP Augmentation 2040 $14M
The impact of implementing the action plan on the supply-demand
balance is shown in Figure 5.19.
Figure 5.19: Future Supply-Demand Balance for the Sunday Creek System
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Sys
tem
Yie
ld (
ML/
a)
Year
BASELINE - MEDIAN CC HIGH YIELD
LOW YIELD BASELINE DEMAND
HIGH DEMAND LOW DEMAND
AUGMENTED SUPPLY
SUPPLY DEMAND BALANCE : PROPOSED AUGMENTATION
Change to
operational rules
Pipeline connection
between Broadford and
Kilmore
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 81
5.14 Yea River System - Yea
5.14.1 Overview of Supply-Demand Balance
Water for the township of Yea is diverted from the Yea River by
pumping. The Bulk Entitlement is 438ML per year, with a
maximum diversion rate of 3.6ML/day depending on River flow.
The baseline demand is estimated to be 244ML per year.
Streamflow analysis has shown that flows in the Yea River have
historically been well above the minimum flow threshold at which
GVW can divert water. The yield of the system is defined as the
bulk entitlement diversion limit which is 438ML. For the Yea River
system there is no difference between a low yield, median climate
change or high yield scenario, as the Bulk Entitlement is the
limiting factor in all scenarios.
Bushfires in 2009 resulted in parts of the supply catchment
upstream of the GVW offtake being burnt. Analysis of the impacts
of the bushfires on stream hydrology (SKM, 2009) estimated a 5%
reduction in runoff in years of peak reduction.
Reductions in streamflows from bushfire impacts or climate
change would need to be in the order of 20%-30% for supply
reliability to be at risk in the short to medium term.
The supply-demand balance for the Yea system is shown in Figure
5.20. Note that supply scenarios are represented by a single line
(baseline – median cc), as the Bulk Entitlement is the limiting
factor for system yield.
Figure 5.20: Supply-Demand Balance for the Yea System
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Sys
tem
Yie
ld (
ML/a
)
Year
BASELINE - MEDIAN CC
BASELINE DEMAND
HIGH DEMAND
LOW DEMAND
SUPPLY DEMAND BALANCE
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 82
5.14.2 Demand and Supply Options
There is currently no predicted shortfall in the supply-demand
balance under any future scenarios.
A total of 41ML per annum of non revenue water is currently
included in the baseline demand forecast. Future actions to
improve the supply-demand balance would involve:
Verifying the level of non revenue water; and
Implementing actions to reduce non revenue water.
Given that there is currently no shortfall in supply at Yea, non
revenue water reduction should only be undertaken if it is
economically justified.
5.14.3 Action Plan for the Yea System
The action plan for the Yea River system is shown in Table 5-22.
Table 5-22: Summary of Actions for the Yea River System
Actions Timeframe Estimated
Cost
Short Term (2012-2018)
Monitoring of streamflow and demand for departures from the
baseline forecasts and for progressive impacts from bushfires. Ongoing
Verify distribution system non-revenue losses and if real and
economically justified implement program to reduce losses
2012 -
2018 $5,000
Medium Term (2018-2030)
No specific actions
Long Term (2030-2060)
No specific actions
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 83
6. ALTERNATIVE LEVEL OF SERVICE ASSESSMENT
6.1 Stage 3 Water Restrictions as Minimum Standard
A scenario involving the adoption of Stage 3 water restrictions as the
minimum standard was modelled for each water supply system. This
scenario was created based on feedback received from the WSDS Steering
Committee.
The outcomes of this scenario were as follows:
Stage 3 water restrictions could currently be adopted as the minimum
standard for the Brewery Creek, Goulburn, Katunga, Longwood, Seven
Creeks (Strathbogie), Steavenson River and Yea River systems with
no impacts in the short to medium term;
Stage 3 water restrictions could currently be adopted as the minimum
standard for the River Murray and Sunday Creeks systems provided
that transfers are made from the Goulburn system;
Stage 3 water restrictions as the minimum standard currently cannot
be achieved for the Delatite River (Mansfield) and Seven Creeks
(Euroa and Violet Town) systems. Future supply side augmentations
would need to be brought forward to achieve this change to the
minimum standard;
Stage 3 water restrictions as the minimum standard currently cannot
be achieved for the Mollisons Creek system without increased
volumes of water cartage or implementing a future supply side
augmentation;
Stage 3 water restrictions as the minimum standard will require
additional water cartage for the Upper Delatite River system in dry
years.
The adoption of Stage 3 water restrictions as the minimum standard would
currently result in the need to bring forward supply side augmentations or
increase water cartage in dry years for a small number of systems.
Further community consultation should be undertaken on this alternative
service level as part of Water Plan 3 consultation.
6.2 Unrestricted Supply to Critical Public Assets
A scenario involving the adoption of unrestricted supply to critical public
assets was modelled for each water supply system. This scenario was
created based on feedback received from the WSDS Steering Committee.
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 84
The outcomes of this scenario were as follows:
Unrestricted supply to critical public assets can currently be achieved
for the Brewery Creek, Goulburn, Katunga, Longwood, Seven Creeks
(Strathbogie), Steavenson River and Yea River systems without any
impact on levels of service in the short to medium term;
Unrestricted supply to the River Murray and Sunday Creek systems
can currently be achieved provided that transfers are made in dry
years from the Goulburn system;
Unrestricted supply to critical public assets currently for the Delatite
River (Mansfield) and Seven Creeks (Euroa and Violet Town) systems
will potentially prolong periods of restrictions without supply side
augmentations being brought forward;
There is minimal supply to public assets in the Upper Delatite River
and Mollisons Creek systems and unrestricted supply to critical public
assets is unlikely to impact on service levels.
The adoption of unrestricted supply to critical public assets would
potentially prolong periods of restrictions for two systems.
Further community consultation should be undertaken on this alternative
service level as part of Water Plan 3 consultation.
7. WATER SECURITY OUTLOOK
A water security outlook for each water supply system has been prepared to inform
the future review and updating of the action plans developed in the WSDS. The
water security outlook for each water supply system is located in Appendix 3.
The water security outlook and action plans will be reviewed and updated on a
regular basis and will be submitted as part of the Corporate Plan half-yearly
performance report during the five-year implementation period of the WSDS.
In addition to the development of the water security outlook for each water supply
system, Drought Response Plans (DRP’s) for each water supply system are currently
being updated. It is expected that an updated DRP for each water supply system will
be submitted to DSE in May 2012.
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 85
8. RECOMMENDATIONS
Recommendations have been developed to undertake actions to improve the
supply-demand balance based on three separate timeframes (short term, medium
term, long term).
The short term period covers the remainder of the Water Plan 2 period and the
Water Plan 3 period. The medium and long term recommendations have the
flexibility to be brought forward or deferred depending on the demand and supply
scenarios which eventuate in future.
The following recommendations are made as a result of the GVW Water Supply
Demand Strategy 2011 – 2060:
Short Term (2012-2018)
Non revenue water losses should be verified for a number of systems and
programs implemented to reduce losses if economically justified (benefits
outweigh costs);
Assess opportunities from the Alternative Water Atlas;
Implement demand management initiatives if they are economically justified
(benefits outweigh costs);
Continue existing streamflow monitoring programs to reduce uncertainty in
water resource modelling;
Monitor demands at Woods Point following the installation of customer
metering;
Recognise the need to transfer entitlement from the Goulburn system to
mitigate shortfalls in other towns in future planning;
Adopt water cartage as an infrequent (expected 1 in 20 years for short
durations) measure to supplement supply for the Upper Delatite Diver system
if streamflows fall below diversion limits;
Transfer of groundwater entitlement from Strathmerton to Katunga to protect
against low allocation years;
Adopt water cartage as a measure to supplement supply for the Mollisons
Creek (Pyalong) system in dry years;
Implement dam safety works at Longwood to return Nine Mile Creek Reservoir
to full design capacity of 27ML;
Recycle Water Treatment Plant sludge supernatant water at Euroa;
Construct a new 300ML off stream storage and a permanent pump station on
Seven Creeks for the Seven Creeks (Euroa and Violet Town) system;
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 86
Construct pre treatment works at the Broadford Water Treatment Plant to
provide capacity for increased usage of Goulburn River water;
Connection of the drought contingency pump station which transfers Goulburn River
water from Broadford to Sunday Creek Reservoir to a permanent power supply;
Purchase land for a future tank site at Kilmore;
Review the feasibility of an integrated water management option for Kilmore
as part of the next update of the WSDS;
Undertake additional community consultation on adopting Stage 3 water
restrictions and unrestricted supply to critical public assets as alternative
service standards. This should be undertaken as part of the Water Plan 3
consultation.
Medium Term (2018-2030)
Construction of a pipeline from Tooborac to Pyalong to supplement supply for
the Mollisons Creek system;
Construction of an additional 20ML off stream storage for the Mollisons Creek
system;
Reconstruct Abbinga Reservoir at Euroa and increase capacity to 700ML;
Construction of an interconnection pipeline between Broadford and Kilmore.
Review strategy for water cartage at Upper Delatite during low flow periods.
Long Term (2030-2060)
Increase raw water diversion pipeline capacity and construct additional off
stream storage for the Delatite River (Mansfield) system;
Consider purchasing additional entitlement from the Goulburn system to
maintain a desirable buffer to protect against risk and uncertainty;
Consider purchasing additional entitlement from the Murray system to reduce
the reliance on annual transfers from Goulburn system bulk entitlements.
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 87
9. REFERENCES
DSE, (2011a) Guidelines for the Development of a Water Supply Demand Strategy,
August 2011
DSE, (2011b) Draft Generic Statement of Obligations, August 2011
GHD, (2011a) Water Supply Demand Strategy 2011-2060 Water Resources
Modelling PART A Update of System REALM Models and Hydrologic Datasets,
October 2011
GHD, (2011b) Water Supply Demand Strategy 2011-2060 Water Resource
Modelling PART B Baseline Yield and Reliability Scenario Modelling, October 2011
GHD, (2011c) Report for Water Supply Demand Strategy 2011-2060 Supply and
Demand Options Assessment, October 2011
GHD, (2011d) Kilmore Recycled Water Option Memorandum, December 2011
SKM (2009a) Goulburn Valley Water Drought Response Plan Update, Water
Resource Modelling, Final, July 2009
SKM (2009b) Goulburn Valley Water Drought Response Plan Update Preliminary
Analysis of 2009 Bushfire Impacts, Final, July 2009
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 88
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 89
APPENDIX 1 –
COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT PLAN
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 90
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 91
COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT PLAN FOR THE
WATER SUPPLY DEMAND STRATEGY
June 2011
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 92
1.0 Background
Goulburn Valley Water (GVW) prepared a fifty year water supply and demand
strategy (WSDS) in 2006. The strategy was titled GVW2055 – A Sustainable Urban
Water Future.
The WSDS outlines predicted water supply availability and water demand for a fifty
year period, identifies any imbalances between supply and demand and identifies
options to address future imbalances between supply and demand.
An updated WSDS is to be prepared by the end of November 2011. GVW will be
seeking community involvement in the development of the WSDS update.
A community engagement plan has been developed to outline how the community
will be involved in the WSDS update and the actions that are required to undertake
the engagement.
2.0 Objectives
The objectives of the community engagement plan are to:
Provide community input to key questions to be addressed in the WSDS
update.
Involve a range of community stakeholders in the development of the WSDS
update.
Identify the level of engagement that will be achieved for different aspects of
the WSDS update.
Outline an engagement plan which will identify actions and timeframes to
deliver the engagement.
Meet the community engagement obligations outlined in the DSE guidelines
for the WSDS update. A copy of the DSE guidelines for community
engagement for the WSDS update are included as Attachment 1 to this plan.
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 93
3.0 Key Stakeholders
The key stakeholder groups to be engaged for the WSDS update are as follows:
Water Users – This stakeholder group includes both residential and
non residential customers
Local Government
Indigenous Community
Others – For GVW other key stakeholders include Goulburn-Murray Water,
Goulburn Broken Catchment Management Authority and the Department of
Sustainability and Environment.
The proposed engagement with each stakeholder group is outlined in the following
table.
Key Stakeholder Engagement approach Engagement Method Engagement
Level
Water Users Residential and non-residential
customers will be engaged on key
questions through the Corporate
Community Reference Committee
(CCRC).
CCRC Meetings Consult
Any specific communities that have an
identified imbalance between supply
and demand within the next ten years
will be engaged in the development of
options to address the imbalance
An imbalance timeframe of ten years
has been set on the basis that any
imbalances within the next ten years
will need to be addressed in detail in
the WSDS. Imbalances in the longer
term would only be addressed at a
concept level in the WSDS as they will
be addressed in detail in future five
yearly updates of the WSDS.
GVW will seek local community input
into the best method of engaging with
each community
Public workshops in
identified communities
Involve
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 94
Key Stakeholder Engagement approach Engagement method Engagement
Level
Water Users The outcomes of the WSDS update will
be presented to the public for each
individual water supply
For the previous WSDS update this
approach was adopted. There was not
significant public interest in engaging
at a higher level than inform as an
imbalance in supply and demand in
most water supply systems is not
expected in the short term.
Public Open Days
Fact Sheets
Inform
The draft WSDS will be advertised for
public comment
Public Advertisement
GVW Website
Presentation to
Community Groups
Consult
Local Government Each local government organisation
will be briefed on the growth forecasts
used for the WSDS update and the
process for the update.
The opportunity will be given for local
government to provide feedback on
any aspects of the WSDS.
Meetings Involve
Each local government organisation
within the GVW Region will be invited
to provide a representative for a
steering committee that will provide
input to the WSDS update
Steering Committee
meetings
Involve
Local government organisations will be
sent a copy of the draft WSDS for
comment
Mail / E-mail Consult
Indigenous
Community
A representative of the indigenous
community is currently a member of
the CCRC
CCRC Meetings Consult
Others Key stakeholders such as Goulburn-
Murray Water, Goulburn Broken
Catchment Management Authority and
the Department of Sustainability and
Environment will be invited to form
part of the WSDS Steering Committee
Steering Committee
Meetings
Involve
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 95
The engagement levels identified in the table above can be broadly defined as
follows.
Inform – to give the community knowledge of the project or issue;
Consult – to seek an opinion/feedback from the community;
Involve – to include the community in certain aspects of the decision making
process.
4.0 Key Engagement Questions
A number of key questions will need to be addressed as part of the community
engagement process. The key questions are outlined in the following table.
Key Question Stakeholders to be
engaged
Proposed engagement Engagement
Level
Level of Service
Targets
CCRC and Steering
Committee
Proposed level of service targets to be
presented to the CCRC and Steering
Committee for feedback.
The existing common level of service
target for all communities is proposed
to be retained.
Consult
Individual
communities
For communities that have an
identified imbalance between supply
and demand within the next ten years,
varying the minimum service level may
be an option to consider.
Involve
Minimum Service
Level
CCRC and Steering
Committee
Proposed minimum service level target
to be presented to the CCRC and
Steering Committee for feedback.
The existing common minimum service
level target for all communities is
proposed to be retained.
Consult
Individual
communities
For communities that have an
identified imbalance between supply
and demand within the next ten years,
varying the minimum service level may
be an option to consider.
Involve
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 96
Key Question Stakeholders to be
engaged
Proposed engagement Engagement
Level
Planning
Assumptions and
level of risk
CCRC and Steering
Committee
Supply and demand balances for a
range of scenarios will be presented to
the CCRC and Steering Committee for
feedback.
The CCRC will be given the opportunity
to provide feedback to GVW on the
planning assumptions and level of risk
presented by the scenarios
Consult
Individual
communities
For communities that have an
identified imbalance between supply
and demand within the next 10 years,
consultation on planning assumptions
and level of risk will form part of the
public workshops.
Involve
Initiatives to
address future
imbalances in
supply and
demand
CCRC and Steering
Committee
The initiatives that GVW will consider
to address future imbalances in supply
and demand will be presented to a
CCRC meeting for feedback.
Consult
Individual
communities
For communities that have an
identified imbalance between supply
and demand within the next ten years,
the opportunity will be provided at
public workshops to identify initiatives
that GVW should consider to address
the imbalance.
Involve
Costs and benefits
of initiatives to
address
imbalances
Steering Committee The costs and benefits of initiatives to
address imbalances will be presented
to the steering committee for feedback
in the draft WSDS.
Consult
Individual
communities
For communities that have an
identified imbalance between supply
and demand within the next ten years,
costs and benefits of initiatives to
address imbalances will be presented
for feedback in the draft WSDS.
Involve
Level of
Engagement
CCRC Proposed levels of engagement (draft
engagement plan) to be presented to
a CCRC meeting for feedback
Consult
Stakeholders to
be Consulted
CCRC CCRC to provide feedback on any
other stakeholder group that may
require specific engagement.
Consult
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 97
5.0 Engagement Measures
The success of this community engagement plan will be measured based on:
Feedback on key engagement questions being successfully obtained at CCRC
meetings.
Public attendance at open days.
Feedback forms completed by the public.
Attendance of steering committee members at meetings.
Public comments on the draft WSDS.
6.0 Engagement Plan
The actions required to undertake the WSDS community engagement are outlined
in the following table.
Date Action Comments
June 2011 CCRC Meeting Feedback to be sought from the CCRC on
level of service targets and minimum service
level.
Draft community engagement plan to be
presented to the CCRC for comment
June 2011 Letters to be sent to Local
Government organisations, G-
MW, GBCMA and DSE to seek
representatives for the Steering
Group
June 2011 Meetings to be held with local
government organisations to
brief them on growth forecasts
and the WSDS process
July 2011 Steering Committee Meeting Meeting focus is likely to be demand
forecasts and water resource model updates.
August 2011 Steering Committee Meeting Meeting focus is likely to be predicted supply
demand balance for each water supply.
August 2011 Communities with a supply and
demand imbalance within the
next ten years are to be
identified
August 2011 Local government is to be
consulted on the best method
for engaging individual
communities with a supply and
demand imbalance
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 98
Date Action Comments
August 2011 CCRC Meeting Feedback to be sought from the CCRC on
planning assumptions and level of risk.
September
2011
Steering Committee Meeting Meeting focus is likely to be planning
assumptions and level of risk.
October 2011 Steering Committee Meeting Meeting focus is likely to be on initiatives to
address supply and demand imbalances
November 2011 Feedback on initiatives to
address supply-demand
imbalances to be sought at
public open days
Public open days are likely to be required for:
Broadford and Kilmore
Euroa and Violet Town
Pyalong
Mansfield
November 2011 Fact sheets to be developed for
each water supply
Fact sheets to be available at public open
days and on the GVW website.
Similar fact sheets were produced for the
previous WSDS.
December 2011 Steering Committee Meeting Meeting focus is likely to be on the Draft
WSDS
December 2011 Draft WSDS to be issued to DSE.
Draft WSDS update to be
publically advertised and placed
on GVW website
Draft WSDS to be sent to local
government organisations and
any other stakeholders
identified through the
community engagement
process.
December 2011
– February 2012
Presentation of draft WSDS to
interested community groups for
feedback
GVW to contact community groups directly to
offer presentations
February 2012 CCRC Meeting Proposed final WSDS is to be presented to the
CCRC for feedback
March 2012 Final Water Plan placed on GVW
website
Final WSDS to consider feedback received on
the Draft WSDS from any stakeholders
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 99
Attachment 1
DSE Guidelines for Community Engagement for the WSDS
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 100
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 101
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 102
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 103
APPENDIX 2 –
ALTERNATIVE WATER ATLAS
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 104
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 105
APPENDIX 3 –
WATER SECURITY OUTLOOKS
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 106
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 107
Water Security Outlook - November 2011 Brewery Creek (Woods Point) System
Streamflow Analysis (July 2011-June 2012) Monitoring Areas of Uncertainty
Water Consumption
Forecast Assumptions Non Revenue Water
Current Year The year to date in rainfall and streamflow
Dry Conditions The streamflow and rainfall from 2006/07
Seasonal Outlook
WSDS Action Plan
Overview of System Status Actions Timing
6 month Outlook Short Term (2012-2018)
Monitor demand levels fol lowing the insta l lation of customer metering 2012 - 2018
Veri fy dis tribution system non-revenue losses and i f rea l and economica l ly justi fied implement programs to reduce losses . 2012 -2018
Medium Term (2018-2030)
12 Month Outlook No speci fic actions
Long Term (2030-2060)
No speci fic actions
2 Year Outlook
La Niña conditions strengthened across the tropical Pacific Basin during November and
is likely to peak in the next month, lasting until the end of summer. La Niña periods are usually, but not always, associated with above normal rainfall. There is a 40% to 45% chance that above average rainfall will be experienced in the next 6 months (right).
References:http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/rain.seaus.shtml http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/http://www.bom.gov.au/water/ssf/index.shtml#map=vic http://www.bom.gov.au/water/ssf/#map=vic
The Streamflow monitoring (Goulburn River near the Woods Point offtake) indicates that streamflow is well above 2006/07 levels and demands
will be met over the coming summer months with La Nina still expected to bring above average rainfall in early 2012.
1
10
100
1000
10000
06/11 07/11 09/11 11/11 12/11 02/12 04/12 05/12 07/12 08/12
Dai
ly S
tre
amfl
ow
(ML)
Streamflow Monitoring
Current Yr Streamflow
2006/07 Streamflow
20.9%
35.8%
43.3%
Given the above average rainfall and La Nina conditions strengthening this summer and into the next year, currently there is no indication that
restrictions will need to be implemented for the next 12 months if rainfall and streamflow continue to be relatively high.
Demand at Woods Point has varied considerably during
recent years. Customer metering is to be installed during 2012 which will enable improved quantification of non revenue water.
0
500
1000
1500
06/11 07/11 09/11 11/11 12/11 02/12 04/12 05/12 07/12 08/12
Cu
mu
lati
ve R
ain
fall
(mm
)
Rainfall Monitoring
Current Yr Cumulative Rainfall
2006/07 Cumulative Rainfall
The BoM streamflow forecast suggests that in the next 3 months there is a 43.3% chance that there will be low flow (orange region on the "Streamflow Monitoring"
chart), 35.8% of near median flow (blue region) and 20.9% of high flow (green region). This analysis is based Goulburn River streamflows in close poximity to Woods Point.
With the end of La Nina coming in the next 12 months there is a good chance that rainfall and streamflow will reduce. By how much is extremely hard to predict and therefore the Bureau's seasonal outlooks need to be monitored.
0102030405060708090100
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2005/06 2007/08 2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/16 2017/18 2019/20
Nu
mb
er
of
Co
nn
ect
ion
s
An
nu
al D
em
and
(M
L)
Total Demand vs Forecast
Historic Demand Baseline Demand High Demand
Low Demand Number of Connections
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13
No
n R
eve
nu
e W
ate
r
Co
nsu
mp
tio
n (
ML/
yr)
Non Revenue Water
Raw Water Consumption Estimated customer consumption Non Revenue Water %
Non revenue water has historically been estimated as there are currently no customer meters. Customer metering is to be installed during 2012 which will enable improved quantification of non revenue water.
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 108
Water Security Outlook - November 2011 Delatite River (Mansfield) System
Storage Forecast (November 2011 - November 2013) Monitoring Areas of Uncertainty
Water Consumption
Forecast Assumptions
Average Conditions: Average inflows (2000-2002), average demand (662 ML/a)
Dry Conditions: Repeat of 2006-2008, dry year annual demand (698 ML/a)
Seasonal Outlook
WSDS Action Plan
Actions TimingShort Term (2012-2018)
Verify distribution system non-revenue losses and if real and economically justified implement program to reduce losses 2012-2018
Overview of System Status Medium Term (2018-2030)
6 month Outlook No specific actions
Long Term (2030-2060)
Construct pipeline booster pump station 2033
Design and construct replacement pipeline and pump station 2039
12 Month Outlook Design and construct 200 ML storage 2039
Increase Delatite River Weir daily extraction limit to 7.5 ML/d 2039
Design and construct 200 ML storage expansion 2053
2 Year Outlook
La Niña conditions strengthened across the tropical Pacific Basin during November. Climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest the La Niña is likely to peak during the
next month and last at least until the end of summer. La Niña periods are usually, but not always, associated with above normal rainfall during the second half of the year
and summer across large parts of Australia, particularly the eastern and northern regions.
There is a 40% to 45% chance that above average rainfall will be experienced in the
next 6 months, therefore the average conditions trace is more likely to be experienced.
References:http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/rain.seaus.shtmlhttp://www.bom.gov.au/water/ssf/index.shtml#map=vichttp://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
With average or above rainfall expected throughout Summer 2011/12, demand is expected to remain around the long term average, and it is
expected that storage levels will remain above restriction levels.
Given the above average rainfall and La Nina conditions strengthening this summer and into the next year, currently there is no indication that
water restrictions will need to be implemented within the next 12 months.
The 2010/2011 demand of
456ML was at the lower end of predicted annual demands. This can be attributed to the wet and
cool conditions for the year.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13
Sto
rage
Le
vel (
ML)
Two Year Water Outlook Average Conditions Trace
Dry Conditions Trace
Recorded Storage Level
Drought Response Trigger Level 1
Drought Response Trigger Level 2
Drought Response Trigger Level 3
Drought Response Trigger Level 4
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
2200
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Nu
mb
er
of
Co
nn
ecti
on
s
An
nu
al D
em
and
(ML)
Total Demand vs Forecast
Historic Demand Baseline Demand High Demand
Low Demand Number of Connections
Based on continuation of average climate conditions, water restrictions would not be predicted within the next 2 years. A repeat of dry inflow
conditions from 2006-2008 would trigger water restrictions within 18 months.
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 109
Water Security Outlook - November 2011 Upper Delatite River (Merrijig & Sawmill Settlement) System
Streamflow Analysis (July 2011-June 2012) Monitoring Areas of Uncertainty
Water Consumption
Forecast Assumptions
Current Year The year to date in rainfall and streamflow
Dry Conditions The streamflow and rainfall from 2006/07
Seasonal Outlook
Overview of System Status WSDS Action Plan
6 Month Outlook Actions Timing
Veri fy dis tribution system non-revenue losses and i f rea l and economica l ly justi fied implement program to reduce losses .2012 - 2018
Water cartage during low flow periods . 2012 - 2018
Continued monitoring of s treamflows to reduce uncerta inty in model l ing of low River flows. 2012-2018
Medium Term (2018-2030)
12 Month Outlook Review strategy for water cartage during low flow periods .
Long Term (2030-2060)
No speci fic actions .
2 Year Outlook
La Niña conditions strengthened across the tropical Pacific Basin during November and
is likely to peak in the next month, lasting until the end of summer. La Niña periods are usually, but not always, associated with above normal rainfall. There is a 40% to 45% chance that above average rainfall will be experienced in the next 6 months (right).
References:http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/rain.seaus.shtml http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/http://www.bom.gov.au/water/ssf/index.shtml#map=vic http://www.bom.gov.au/water/ssf/#map=vic
Climate and streamflow forecast indicates high likelihood of above average flow conditions will be achieved over the next 3 to 6 months. The risk
of flow falling below the passing flow thresholdfor diversions is considered to be low. The recession curve indicates that under a return to dry scenario, streamflows could fall below the diversion limit within a 4 month period.
1
10
100
1000
06/11 07/11 09/11 11/11 12/11 02/12 04/12 05/12 07/12 08/12Dai
ly S
tre
amfl
ow
(M
L)
Streamflow MonitoringCurrent Yr Streamflow
2006/07 Streamflow
Recession Curve
Passing Flow Threshold
21.1%
46.5%
32.5%
Given the above average rainfall and La Nina conditions strengthening this summer and into the next year, currently there is no indication
restrictions will need to be implemented for the next 12 months if rainfall and streamflow continue to be relatively high.
The reliability of the Delatite River Supply System is dependent on
streamflows remaining above the passing flow threshold for diversions.
Demand forecasts are well below the Bullk Entitlement limit of 235ML per year. Demand in recent years is tracking within the predicted band,
suggesting that assumptions associated with demand forecasts
have been made appropriately.
0
200
400
600
800
06/11 07/11 09/11 11/11 12/11 02/12 04/12 05/12 07/12 08/12
Cu
mu
lati
ve R
ain
fall
(mm
)
Rainfall Monitoring
Current Yr Cumulative Rainfall
2006/07 Cumulative Rainfall
The Bureau streamflow forecast suggests that in the next 3 months there is a 32.5% chance that there will be low flow (orange region on the "Streamflow Monitoring"
chart, 0-38 ML/day), 46.5% of near median flow (blue region, 38-122 ML/day) and 21.1% of high flow (green region, 122 ML/day and above). The Bureau analysis is based
on streamflows in the Delatite River at Tonga Bridge, which is downstream of the offtake for this system.
With the end of La Nina coming in the next 12 months there is a good chance that rainfall and streamflow will reduce. By how much is extremely hard to predict and therefore the Bureau's seasonal outlooks need to be monitored.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Nu
mb
er
of
Co
nn
ect
ion
s
An
nu
al D
em
and
(M
L)
Total Demand vs Forecast
Historic Demand Baseline Demand High Demand
Low Demand Number of Connections
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 110
Water Security Outlook - November 2011 Regulated Goulburn System
Forecasts of Inlows and Use of Allocation Monitoring Areas of Uncertainty
Industrial Demands
Water Consumption/Connections
Available Water - 2011/12
\
Volumes Transferred to Murray/Broadford/Kilmore
Forecast Assumptions: Forecast 1 = Average demand (21,050 ML/a), 100% Allocation
Forecast 2 = High demand (24,207 ML/a), 100% Allocation
Forecast 3 =
Overview of System Status WSDS Action Plan
6 month Outlook Actions Timing
Short Term (2012-2018)
Recognise the reduction in enti tlement when substi tuting water to mitigate shortfa l l s in other towns. 2012
Monitor the implementation of carryover rules , and adjust GVW internal a l location process as the understanding of ri sks improves . 2012
Assess preferred opportunities for demand management and opportunities from the Alternative Water Atlas . 2012
12 Month Outlook Monitor consumption rates in new res identia l connections . 2012
Veri fy dis tribution system non-revenue losses and i f rea l and economica l ly justi fied implement program to reduce losses . 2012 - 2018
Medium Term (2018-2030)
No speci fic actions .
Long Term (2030-2060)
2 Year Outlook
High demand (24,207 ML/a), 100% Allocation,
Incl vol transfered to Murray and Broadford/Kilmore
Cons ider purchas ing additional enti tlement from the Regulated Goulburn System to mainta in a des i rable buffer to
protect aga inst future ri sk and uncerta inty.
Forecast Assumptions:The forecast for Eildon Inflows assumes that over the next 12 months the inflows into Eildon will be average or above meaning that the 99%ile flow is not approached and allocations can be expected to be 100%.
4800
4850
4900
4950
5000
An
nu
al In
du
stri
al D
em
and
(ML) Total Demand vs Forecast
Historic Industrial Demand Forecast Industrial Demand
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Nu
mb
er
of
Co
nn
ecti
on
s
An
nu
al D
em
and
(ML)
Total Demand vs Forecast
Historic Demand Baseline Demand High Demand
Low Demand Number of Connections
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Jul/11 Aug/11 Oct/11 Dec/11 Mar/12 May/12
All
oca
tio
n A
vaila
ble
(ML)
Allocation Outlook Drought Response Trigger Level 1
Drought Response Trigger Level 2
Drought Response Trigger Level 3
Drought Response Trigger Level 4
Forecast 1
Forecast 2
Forecast 3
Recorded Use inc. B/K and Murray Use
Recorded Use of Allocation
The 2010/2011 demand was significantly lower than expected due
to high rainfall and low summer temperatures.
Industrial demand is currently
assumed to remain consistent with recent averages.
The volume of Goulburn Allocation
transferred to other towns has decreased over the past two years due to full allocation on the Murray system and Sunday Creek Reservoir
filling.
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14
Vo
lum
e T
ran
sfe
rre
d
(ML)
Murray System Broadford/Kilmore System
The next 6 months are secure for 100% water allocations. Inflows into Eildon will have to completely dry up in order for there to be any
prospect of reduced allocations.
The allocation is expected to be 100% if Lake Eildon levels continue to be well above 2008 and 2009 levels. Carry over is expected to be available for next water year.
*Dummy Recorded Use of Allocation
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
24
Mo
nth
Eild
on
In
flo
w T
ota
l (G
L)
24 Month Eildon Inflow Forecast
99th %ile 24 Month Inflow
Recorded 24 Month Inflows
Forecast 24 Month Inflow
2010 / 11 2011 / 12
The allocation is expected to be 100% with Lake Eildon inflow predicted to continue to be well above 2008 and 2009 levels.
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 111
Water Security Outlook Katunga Groundwater System
Aquifer Level Analysis Monitoring Areas of Uncertainty
Water Consumption
Overall Demand vs Groundwater
Seasonal Outlook
5 Year Rolling Average
Overview of System Status
6 month Outlook
WSDS Action Plan
12 Month Outlook Actions Timing
Short Term (2012-2018)
Veri fy dis tribution system non-revenue losses and i f rea l and economica l ly justi fied implement program to reduce losses . 2012 - 2018
Transfer of enti tlement from Strathmerton to protect aga inst low a l location years . 2012 - 2018
2 Year Outlook Medium Term (2018-2030)
No speci fic actions .
Long Term (2030-2060)
No speci fic actions .
The Katunga area has experienced significantly higher than average rainfall over the past 24 months. The rainfall from this period has enabled some level of recharge
already and in the short term more high rainfall weather is predicted.
La Niña conditions strengthened across the tropical Pacific Basin during November and December. Climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest the La Niña is likely to peak during the next month and last at least until the end of summer. La Niña generally but not always is associated with higher rainfall.
References:http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/rain.seaus.shtmlhttp://www.bom.gov.au/water/ssf/index.shtml#map=vichttp://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain
Higher rainfall in the past 3-6 months means that recharge will generally be significant in the next 6 months and aquifer recovery should
continue.
0
10
20
30
40
06/11 08/11 10/11 12/11 02/12 04/12 06/12
Gro
un
dw
ate
r D
ep
th
Be
low
Nat
ura
l Su
rfac
e
(m)
Groundwater Depth Monitoring
Current Year Groundwater Levels
2006/07 Groundwater Levels
Allocations for the next water year depend on recharge/recovery and 5 year rolling average. With a reduction in 5 year average in 2011 and recharge it is anticipated that the next water year will bring an allocation of 70%.
The last 2 years of wetter than average
conditions have brought down irrigation demand and in turn reduced the 5 year rolling average. Recent bore recovery and reductions in demand make larger
allocations going forward more likely.
The 2010/2011 demand of 36ML was
below the predicted range for demand. This can be attributed to the wet and cool conditions for the year.
0
100
200
300
400
06/11 08/11 10/11 12/11 02/12 04/12 06/12
Cu
mu
lati
ve R
ain
fall
(mm
)
Rainfall MonitoringCurrent Year Cumulative Rainfall
2006/07 Cumulative Rainfall
Groundwater systems recover and draw
down over long periods. The 1997-2009 drought had significant impacts on recharge amounts. Aquifer recovery has commenced over the 2008-2011 period.
Note that Annual Demand referred to in this graph represents total groundwater
usage in the Katunga area.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
350
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Gro
un
dw
ate
r D
ep
th
Be
low
Su
rfac
e (
m)
An
nu
al D
em
and
(M
L)
Groundwater Level vs System Demand
Historic Demand Katunga Groundwater Level
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
An
nu
al D
em
and
(M
L)
5 Year Rolling Average Demand
5 Year Rolling Average Demand
Allocations in future will depend on recharge/recovery and the 5 year rolling average. GVW currently has a large groundwater licence at Strathmerton which can be transferred to Katuunga if required in a low allocation year.
0
50
100
150
200
250
010203040506070
Nu
mb
er
of
Co
nn
ect
ion
s
An
nu
al D
em
and
(M
L)
Total Demand vs Forecast
Historic Demand Baseline Demand High Demand
Low Demand Number of Connections
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 112
Water Security Outlook - November 2011 Mollisons Creek (Pyalong) System
Storage Forecast (November 2011 - November 2013) Monitoring Areas of Uncertainty
Water Consumption
Forecast Assumptions
Average Conditions: Average inflows (2004-2006), average demand (41 ML/a) Water Quality
Dry Conditions: Repeat of 2007-2009, dry year annual demand (44 ML/a)
Seasonal Outlook
WSDS Action Plan
Actions Timing
Short Term (2012 -2018)
Water cartage during dry years . 2012 – 2018
Overview of System Status Consult community on water qual i ty and monitor sa l ini ty. 2012 – 2018
6 month Outlook Veri fy dis tribution system non-revenue losses and i f rea l and economica l ly justi fied implement program to reduce losses . 2012 - 2018
Implement demand management ini tiatives i f they are economica l ly justi fied. 2012 - 2018
Medium Term (2018-2030)
Tooborac pipel ine and booster pump station. 2025
12 Month Outlook 20 ML offs tream storage. 2030
Long Term (2030-2060)
Pyalong WTP refurbishment. 2040
2 Year Outlook
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
De
c-0
9
Jan
-10
Feb
-10
Mar
-10
Ap
r-1
0
May
-10
Jun
-10
Jul-
10
Au
g-1
0
Sep
-10
Oct
-10
No
v-1
0
De
c-1
0
Jan
-11
Feb
-11
Mar
-11
Ap
r-1
1
May
-11
Jun
-11
Jul-
11
Au
g-1
1
Sep
-11
Oct
-11
No
v-1
1
Stre
amfl
ow
(ML/
mth
)
Ele
ctri
cal C
on
duct
ivit
y (u
S/cm
)
Average Electronic Conductivity vs Streamflow in Mollison Creek
Electrical Conductivity Mollison Creek Streamflow
La Niña conditions strengthened across the tropical Pacific Basin during November.
Climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest the La Niña is likely to peak during the next month and last at least until the end of summer. La Niña periods are usually, but not always, associated with above normal rainfall during the second half of the year and summer across large parts of Australia, particularly the eastern and northern
regions.
There is a 40% to 45% chance that above average rainfall will be experienced in the next 6 months, therefore the average conditions trace is more likely to be experienced.
References:http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/rain.seaus.shtmlhttp://www.bom.gov.au/water/ssf/index.shtml#map=vichttp://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
With average or above rainfall expected throughout Summer 2011/12, demand is expected to remain around the long term average and it is
expected that storage levels will remain
Given the above average rainfall and La Nina conditions strengthening this summer and into the next year, currently there is no indication restrictions will need to be implemented for the next 12 months.
There is some uncertainty in regards to water quality in Mollison Creek,
particularly issues with high salinity. There is a clear relationship between
inflow and EC, with EC increasing when flow is low. The need for water quality improvement at Pyalong needs to be monitored.
The 2010/2011 demand of 27ML was
low due to high rainfall and low summer temperature.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14
Sto
rage
Le
vel (
ML)
Two Year Water OutlookAverage Conditions Trace
Dry Conditions Trace
Recorded Storage Level
Drought Response Trigger Level 1
Drought Response Trigger Level 2
Drought Response Trigger Level 3
Drought Response Trigger Level 4
120130140150160170180190200210220
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Nu
mb
er
of
Co
nn
ecti
on
s
An
nu
al D
em
and
(ML)
Total Demand vs Forecast
Baseline Demand Historic Demand High Demand
Low Demand Number of Connections
Based on continuation of average climate conditions, water restrictions would not be predicted within the next 2 years. A repeat of dry inflow conditions from 2006-2008 would potentially trigger Stage 1 water restrictions within 15 months.
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 113
Water Security Outlook - November 2011 Regulated Murray System
Allocation Forecast Monitoring Areas of Uncertainty
Industrial Demands
Water Consumption/Connections
Volumes Transferred from the Regulated Goulburn
Forecast Assumptions: Forecast 1 = High demand (5,531 ML/a), 100% Murray Allocation,
Forecast 2 = Average demand (5,121 ML/a), 100% Murray Allocation
Forecast 3 =
Overview of System Status
6 month Outlook WSDS Action Plan
Actions TimingShort Term (2012-2018)
Monitor changes in industrial use as it represents a large proportion of total demand. Ongoing
Assess preferred opportunities for demand management and opportunities from the Alternative Water Atlas. 2012
12 Month Outlook Verify distribution system non-revenue losses and if real and economically justified implement program. 2012 - 2018
Medium Term (2018-2030)
No specific actions.
Long Term (2030-2060)
2 Year Outlook
High demand (5,531 ML/a), 100% Murray Allocation, with 600 ML
transferred from the Goulburn System
Consider the purchase of additional entitlement from the Regulated Murray System to reduce the
reliance on annual transfers from Regulated Goulburn System bulk entitlements. 2040
2080
2090
2100
2110
2120
2130
2140
2005/06 2007/08 2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/16 2017/18 2019/20
An
nu
al In
du
stri
al D
em
and
(ML)
Total Demand vs Forecast
Historic Industrial Demand Forecast Industrial Demand
5,000
5,200
5,400
5,600
5,800
6,000
01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,000
Nu
mb
er
of
Co
nn
ecti
on
s
An
nu
al D
em
and
(ML)
Total Demand vs Forecast
Historic Demand Baseline Demand
High Demand Low Demand
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
01/07/11 31/08/11 31/10/11 31/12/11 01/03/12 01/05/12
All
oca
tio
n A
vaila
ble
(ML)
Allocation Outlook (excl. carryover volume) Drought Response Trigger Level 1Drought Response Trigger Level 2Drought Response Trigger Level 3Drought Response Trigger Level 4Forecast 1
Forecast 2
Forecast 3
Recorded Use of AllocationRecorded Use inc. Goulburn Transfer
The 2010/2011 demand was significantly lower than expected due to high rainfall
and low summer temperatures.
Industrial demand is currently
assumed to remain consistent with recent averages.
The volume of Goulburn
Allocation transferred to other
towns has decreased over the past two years due to full allocation on the Murray system.
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14
All
oca
tio
n t
ran
sfe
rre
d
(ML/
yr)
Goulburn Allocation Substitution
Sources:http://www.nvrm.net.au/outlooks.aspxhttp://g-mwater.com.au/water-resources/storages/murray/humedam
The Murray Allocation is hard to predict in the longer term although with the ability to substitute with the Goulburn allocation there is less
uncertainty about being able to meet demands.
The allocation is expected to be 100% with Hume Reservoir inflows predicted to continue to be well above 2008 and 2009 levels.
The high Hume storage level and Seasonal Allocation signals that the High reliability water shares will get 100% allocation m eaning that the
Murray System receives the full 5593 ML this water year. Given the allocation used thus far it is almost a certainty that the Murray will be able to
supply its demands without substitution from the Goulburn Allocation.
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 114
Water Security Outlook - November 2011 Nine Mile Creek (Longwood) System
Storage Forecast (November 2011 - November 2013) Monitoring Areas of Uncertainty
System Inflows
Water Consumption
Forecast Assumptions
Average Conditions: Average inflows (1999-2001), average demand (53 ML/a)
Dry Conditions: Repeat of 2006-2008, maximum annual demand (62 ML/a)
Seasonal Outlook
Non Revenue Water
Overview of System Status
6 month Outlook
WSDS Action Plan
Actions Timing
Short Term (2012 - 2018)
12 Month Outlook Veri fy dis tribution system non-revenue losses and i f rea l and economica l ly justi fied implement programs to reduce losses . 2012 - 2018
Dam safety works to rebui ld dam to provide origina l des ign capaci ty of 27 ML. 2013
Continued gauging of s torage inflows to reduce uncerta inty in current yield estimates . 2012 - 2018
Medium Term (2018-2030)
2 Year Outlook No speci fic actions .
Long Term (2030-2060)
No speci fic actions .
La Niña conditions strengthened across the tropical Pacific Basin during November.
Climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest the La Niña is likely to peak during the next month and last at least until the end of summer. La Niña periods are usually, but not always, associated with above normal rainfall during the second half of the year and summer across large parts of Australia, particularly the eastern and northern
regions.
There is a 40% to 45% chance that above average rainfall will be experienced in the next 6 months, therefore the average conditions trace is more likely to be experienced.
References:http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/rain.seaus.shtmlhttp://www.bom.gov.au/water/ssf/index.shtml#map=vichttp://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
With average or above rainfall expected throughout Summer 2011/12, demand is expected to remain around the long term average and it is
expected that storage levels will remain well above restriction levels.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 No
n R
eve
nu
e W
ate
r (%
)
Co
nsu
mp
tio
n (
ML/
yr)
Non Revenue Water
Raw Water Consumption Metered consumption Percentage Non Revenue
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Nov-09 May-10 Nov-10
Rai
nfa
ll (m
m/m
th)
Stre
amfl
ow
(ML/
mth
)
Streamflow: Modelled v Actual
Modelled Streamflow (ML/mth) Actual Streamflow (ML/mth) Rainfall (mm)
0
5
10
15
20
25
Sep-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13
Sto
rage
Le
vel (
ML)
Two Year Water Outlook Drought Response Trigger Level 1
Drought Response Trigger Level 2
Drought Response Trigger Level 3
Drought Response Trigger Level 4
Average Condtions Trace
Dry Conditions Trace
Recorded Storage Level
Based on continuation of average climate conditions, water restrictions would not be predicted within the next 2 years. A repeat of dry inflow conditions from 2006-2008 would trigger water restrictions within 1 year.
Given the above average rainfall and La Nina conditions strengthening this summer and into the next year, currently there is no indication restrictions will need to be implemented for the next 12 months.
The 2010/2011 demand of 41ML
was below the lower band of predicted annual demands. This can be attributed to the wet and
cool conditions for the year. Non
revenue water reduction has resulted in a reduction in total
demand in recent years.
The streamflow used in the
Outlook predition model. Its clear that both inflows track the rainfall well although the model is quite conservative, meaning that
confidence can be dirived from the output.
The plot shows that non revenuewater is remaining relatively
constant and is currently not significant.
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
0
20
40
60
80
100
2005/06 2007/08 2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/16 2017/18 2019/20
Nu
mb
er
of
Co
nn
ect
ion
s
An
nu
al D
em
and
(M
L)
Total Demand vs Forecast
Historic Demand Baseline Demand High Demand Low Demand Number of Connections
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 115
Water Security Outlook - November 2011 Seven Creeks (Euroa & Violet Town) Water Supply System
Storage Forecast (November 2011 - November 2013) Monitoring Areas of Uncertainty
Water Consumption
Forecast Assumptions
Average Conditions: Average inflows (2000-02), average demand (722 ML/a)
Dry Conditions: Repeat of 2006-08, dry year annual demand (793 ML/a)
Seasonal Outlook
WSDS Action Plan
Overview of System Status Actions Timing
6 month Outlook Short Term (2012-2018)
Recycle WTP s ludge supernatant 2014
Promote water efficiency 2013 - 2018
Veri fy dis tribution system non-revenue losses and i f rea l and economica l ly justi fied implement program to reduce losses 2013 -2018
12 Month Outlook Purchase land for future 300ML storage 2016
Construct new 300 ML s torage and interconnecting pipework 2018
Construct new offtake pump station on Seven Creeks (10 ML/d) 2018
Medium Term (2018-2030)
2 Year Outlook Replace 3 km of Gooram pipel ine (3 km x DN300) 2020
Repair Abbinga and increase to 700 ML 2030
Long Term (2030-2060)
No speci fic actions
La Niña conditions strengthened across the tropical Pacific Basin during November.
Climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest the La Niña is likely to peak during the next month and last at least until the end of summer. La Niña periods are usually, but not always, associated with above normal rainfall during the second half of the year and summer across large parts of Australia, particularly the eastern and northern
regions.
There is a 40% to 45% chance that above average rainfall will be experienced in the next 6 months, therefore the average conditions trace is more likely to be experienced.
References:http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/rain.seaus.shtmlhttp://www.bom.gov.au/water/ssf/index.shtml#map=vichttp://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
With average or above rainfall expected throughout Summer 2011/12, demand is expected to remain around the long term average, it is
expected that storage levels will remain well above restriction levels.
Based on continuation of average climate conditions, water restrictions would not be predicted within the next 2 years. A repeat of dry inflow conditions from 2006-2008 would trigger water restrictions within 1 year.
The 2010/11 recordeddemand for Euroa was below the low demand prediction.
The 2011/12 demand should be monitored so that this can be attributed to either the fact that 2010/11 was a wet
and cool year or if behaviour changes in peoples water use have made impacts on demand.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Sep-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13
Sto
rage
Le
vel (
ML)
Two Year Water Outlook Average Conditions Trace
Dry Conditions Trace
Recorded Storage Level
Drought Response Trigger Level 1
Drought Response Trigger Level 2
Drought Response Trigger Level 3
Drought Response Trigger Level 4
1800
1900
2000
2100
2200
2300
2400
2500
0100200300400500600700800900
2005/06 2007/08 2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/16 2017/18 2019/20 Nu
mb
er
of
Co
nn
ect
ion
s
An
nu
al D
em
and
(M
L)
Total Demand vs Forecast
Historic Demand Baseline Demand High Demand
Low Demand Number of Connections
Given the above average rainfall and La Nina conditions strengthening this summer and into the next year, currently there's no indication restrictions will need to be implemented for the next 12 months.
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 116
Water Security Outlook - November 2011 Seven Creeks (Strathbogie) System
Streamflow Analysis (July 2011-June 2012) Monitoring Areas of Uncertainty
Water Consumption
Forecast Assumptions
Current Year The year to date in rainfall and streamflow
Dry Conditions The streamflow and rainfall from 2006/07
Seasonal Outlook
WSDS Action Plan
Overview of System Status Actions Timing
6 month Outlook Short Term (2012-2018)
Veri fy dis tribution system non-revenue losses and i f rea l and economica l ly justi fied implement program to reduce losses2012 - 2018
Water carting in dry years i f required
Medium Term (2018-2030)
12 Month Outlook No speci fic actions
Long Term (2030-2060)
No speci fic actions
2 Year Outlook
La Niña conditions strengthened across the tropical Pacific Basin during November and
is likely to peak in the next month, lasting until the end of summer. La Niña periods are usually, but not always, associated with above normal rainfall. There is a 40% to 45% chance that above average rainfall will be experienced in the next 6 months (right).
References:http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/rain.seaus.shtml http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/http://www.bom.gov.au/water/ssf/index.shtml#map=vic http://www.bom.gov.au/water/ssf/#map=vic
The Streamflow monitoring (Seven Creeks downstream of Strathbogie) indicates that streamflow is well above 2006/07 levels and dem ands will
be met over the coming summer months with La Nina still expected to bring above average rainfall in early 2012.
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
06/11 07/11 09/11 11/11 12/11 02/12 04/12 05/12 07/12 08/12
Dai
ly S
tre
amfl
ow
(ML)
Streamflow Monitoring
Current Yr Streamflow
2006/07 Streamflow
46.2%
43.0%
10.9%
Given the above average rainfall and La Nina conditions strengthening this summer and into the next year, currently there is no indication that
restrictions will need to be implemented for the next 12 months if rainfall and streamflow continue to be relatively high.
Water consumption in recent years
has been at the low end of the forecast range.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
06/11 07/11 09/11 11/11 12/11 02/12 04/12 05/12 07/12 08/12
Cu
mu
lati
ve R
ain
fall
(mm
) Rainfall Monitoring
Current Yr Cumulative Rainfall
2006/07 Cumulative Rainfall
The BoM streamflow forecast suggests that in the next 3 months there is a 10.9% chance that there will be low flow (orange region on the "Streamflow Monitoring"
chart), 43.0% of near median flow (blue region) and 46.2% of high flow (green region). This analysis is based on inflows to Goulburn Weir, in close proximity to the
Strathbogie. This should mean sufficient flows to meet demand in over the next 3 months.
With the end of La Nina coming in the next 12 months there is a good chance that rainfall and streamflow will reduce. By how much is uncertain and therefore the Bureau's seasonal outlooks need to be monitored.
05101520253035404550
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2005/06 2007/08 2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/16 2017/18 2019/20
Nu
mb
er
of
Co
nn
ecti
on
s
An
nu
al D
em
and
(M
L)
Total Demand vs Forecast
Historic Demand Baseline DemandHigh Demand Low DemandNumber of Connections
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 117
Water Security Outlook - November 2011 Steavenson River (Marysville & Buxton) System
Storage Forecast (November 2011 - November 2013) Monitoring Areas of Uncertainty
Water Consumption
Bushfire Impact Analysis
Forecast Assumptions
Average Conditions: Average inflows (2003-05), average demand (150 ML/a)
Dry Conditions: Repeat of 2007-2009, maximum annual demand (170 ML/a)
Seasonal Outlook
Overview of System Status
6 month Outlook
WSDS Action Plan
Actions Timing
12 Month Outlook Short Term (2012-2018)
Assess opportunities from the Alternative Water Atlas . 2012
Veri fy dis tribution system non-revenue losses and implement program to reduce losses i f economica l ly justi fied. 2012 - 2018
Continued gauging of s treamflow and assessment to monitor the progress ive impacts from bushfi res . 2012 - 2018
2 Year Outlook Medium Term (2018-2030)
Monitor and respond to growth and long term impact of bushfi res on s treamflow.
Long Term (2030-2060)
Monitor and respond to growth and long term impact of bushfi res on s treamflow.
La Niña conditions strengthened across the tropical Pacific Basin during November.
Climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest the La Niña is likely to peak during the next month and last at least until the end of summer. La Niña periods are usually, but not always, associated with above normal rainfall during the second half of the year and summer across large parts of Australia, particularly the eastern and northern
regions.
There is a 45% to 50% chance that above average rainfall will be experienced in the GVW region in the next 6 months, therefore the average conditions trace is more likely to be experienced.
References:http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/rain.seaus.shtmlhttp://www.bom.gov.au/water/ssf/index.shtml#map=vichttp://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
With average or above rainfall expected throughout Summer 2011/12, demand is expected to remain around the average, it is expected
that storage levels will remain well above restriction levels. It is most likely that the storage trace will follow that of the average conditions
Given the above average rainfall and La Nina conditions strengthening this summer and into the next year, currently there is no indication
that water restrictions will need to be implemented for the next 12 months.
The impact on streamflow from the recent bushfires in 2009 appears
quite minimal with rainfall resulting in expected levels of streamflow. This
is in contrast with 2010 which had close to the 90th %ile rainfall but much higher than the 90th %ile streamflow. The 2010 streamflow
result seems to suggest that inflow yield in the catchment has increased.
There is also the possibility that 2010 was a year with extreme rainfall with some flooding, the high streamflow could be independent of the bushfire event impacts. Data for the 2011/12 year will reduce the uncertainty regarding the bushfire impact.
Demand is considerably lower than
historic levels due to the reduced number of connections. Demand for 2011/12 is currently tracking similar to the forecast.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13
Sto
rage
Le
vel (
ML)
Two Year Water Outlook Average Conditions Trace
Dry Conditions Trace
Recorded Storage Level
Drought Response Trigger Level 1
Drought Response Trigger Level 2
Drought Response Trigger Level 3
Drought Response Trigger Level 4
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Rai
nfa
ll (m
m)
Cumulative Rainfall
10th %ile 90th %ile 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
02,0004,0006,0008,000
10,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,000
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Stre
amfl
ow
(ML)
Cumulative Streamflow
10th %ile 90th %ile 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
050
100150200250300350400
2005/06 2007/08 2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/16 2017/18 2019/20
Nu
mb
er
of
Co
nn
ecti
on
s
An
nu
al D
em
and
(ML)
Total Demand vs Forecast
Historic Demand Baseline Demand High Demand
Low Demand Number of Connections
Demand is expected to increase as properties are rebuilt in the Marysville and Buxton townships. Increasing demand is however not expected to result in the need for water restrictions within the next two years.
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 118
Water Security Outlook - November 2011 Sunday Creek (Broadford & Kilmore) System
Storage Forecast (November 2011 - November 2013) Monitoring Areas of Uncertainty
Water Consumption
Bushfire Impact Analysis
Forecast Assumptions
Average Conditions: Average inflows (1999-2001), average demand (1446 ML/a)
Dry Conditions: Repeat of 2007-2009 inflows, maximum annual demand (1871.5 ML/a)
Seasonal Outlook
Use of Goulburn Allocation
Overview of System Status
6 month Outlook
12 Month Outlook
WSDS Action Plan
Actions Timing
Monitor demands Ongoing
Assess opportunities from the Alternative Water Atlas . 2012
2 Year Outlook Veri fy dis tribution system non-revenue losses and implement program to reduce losses i f economica l ly justi fied. 2012-2018
Continued gauging of s treamflow and assessment to monitor the progress ive impacts from bushfi res . Ongoing
Review the feas ibi l i ty of an integrated water management option as part of the next WSDS update 2016
Broadford WTP Pre-Treatment Works (timing wi l l depend on actual peak day demand experienced).
Connection of the Drought Contingency pump station to a permanent power supply.
Purchase land for a future tank s i te at Ki lmore 2013 - 2018
Medium Term (2018-2030)
Broadford-Ki lmore Interconnection pipel ine, pump station and Ki lmore Tank 2028-2034
Long Term (2030-2060)
Broadford WTP Augmentation 2040
2013-2020
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Stre
amfl
ow (M
L)
Cumulative Streamflow
10th %ile 90th %ile 2009/10 2010/11 2010/11
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Rai
nfal
l (m
m)
Cumulative Rainfall
10th %ile 90th %ile 2009/10 2010/11 2011/2012
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2005/06 2007/08 2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/16 2017/18 2019/20
Num
ber
of C
onne
ctio
ns
Ann
ual D
eman
d (M
L)
Total Demand vs Forecast
Historic Demand Baseline Demand High Demand
Low Demand Number of Connections
La Niña conditions strengthened across the tropical Pacific Basin during November. Climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest the La Niña is likely to peak during the
next month and last at least until the end of summer. La Niña periods are usually, but not always, associated with above normal rainfall during the second half of the year and summer across large parts of Australia, particularly the eastern and northern
regions.
There is a 45% to 50% chance that above average rainfall will be experienced in the GVW region in the next 6 months, therefore the average conditions trace is most likely.
References:http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/rain.seaus.shtmlhttp://www.bom.gov.au/water/ssf/index.shtml#map=vichttp://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
With average or above rainfall expected throughout Summer 2011/12, demand is expected to remain around the long term average, it is expected that storage levels will remain well above restriction levels. It is most likely that the storage trace will follow that of the average
conditions in the next 6 months. Operating Mode 1 represents supply to Broadford & Kilmore from Sunday Creek Reservoir.
The 12 month outlook for the Regulated Goulburn system is for 100% allocation. Operating Mode 2 may be triggered within the next 12
months under an average inflows scenario and Operating Mode 3 may be triggered under a dry inflow scenario. Operating Mode 2 will involve transfer of Regulated Goulburn system water to supply Broadford. Operating Mode 3 will involve transfer of Regulated Goulburn system water to both Broadford and Kilmore.
The analysis shows that there is the possibility of high impact due to bushfire given that the rainfall and streamflow in 2010/11 show very stark differences. The 2010/11 rainfall is about at the
1970-2008 90th %ile, making it a relatively high rainfall year. It is expected that the streamflow would therefore be close to the 90th %ile also. This is not the case however, there is
much more streamflow than expected. The high streamflow could be the result of the bushfire impacted catchment.Further monitoring and assessment is warranted.
Historic demand shown is treated water demand. The forecast shown is raw water demand and assumes some bounce back in demand compared to the past 5 years. Future updates to this
outlook will compare historic raw water demand to the forecast.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Jan-14
Sto
rage
Le
vel (
ML)
Two Year Water Outlook Average Conditions Trace
Dry Conditions Trace
Recorded Storage Level
Goulburn Supply Mode 2 Trigger
Goulburn Supply Mode 3 Trigger
Note: Drought Response Triggers are now aligned with the Regulated Goulburn System
Operating Mode 1
Operating Mode 2
Operating Mode 3
Refer to Drought Response Manual for information on Goulburn Supply operating modes.
0100200
300400500
600700800
2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14
Vo
lum
e (M
L)
Broadford/Kilmore System
The transfer of Goulburn allocation has decreased in the past two years as the
Sunday Creek Reservoir has filled.
The 2 year outlook for the Regulated Goulburn system is for 100% allocation. Restrictions are unlikely within the next 2 years given that
transfers will be undertaken from the Regulated Goulburn system if Operating Mode 2 or 3 occur.
Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060
March 2012
Page | 119
Water Security Outlook - November 2011 Yea River (Yea) System
Streamflow Analysis (July 2011 - June 2012) Monitoring Areas of Uncertainty
Water Consumption
Forecast Assumptions
Current Year The year to date in rainfall and streamflow Bushfire Impacts on the Catchment
Dry Conditions The streamflow and rainfall from 2006/07
Seasonal Outlook
Seasonal Outlook
Overview of System Status
6 month Outlook
WSDS Action Plan
12 Month Outlook Actions Timing
Short Term (2012-2018)
Monitoring of s treamflow and demand for departures from the basel ine forecasts and for progress ive impacts from bushfi res . Ongoing
Veri fy dis tribution system non-revenue losses and i f rea l and economica l ly justi fied implement program to reduce losses 2012 - 2018
2 Year Outlook Medium Term (2018-2030)
No speci fic actions
Long Term (2030-2060)
No speci fic actions
La Niña conditions strengthened across the tropical Pacific Basin during November and
is likely to peak in the next month, lasting until the end of summer. La Niña periods are
usually, but not always, associated with above normal rainfall. There is a 40% to 45% chance that above average rainfall will be experienced in the next 6 months (right).
References:http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/rain.seaus.shtmlhttp://www.bom.gov.au/water/ssf/index.shtml#map=vichttp://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/http://www.bom.gov.au/water/ssf/#map=vic
The Streamflow forecast and Streamflow monitoring both indicate that streamflow is well above 2006/07 levels and demands shoud be able to bemet over the coming summer months with La Nina still expected to bring above average rainfall in early 2012.
1
10
100
1000
10000
06/11 07/11 09/11 11/11 12/11 02/12 04/12 05/12 07/12 08/12
Dai
ly S
tre
amfl
ow
(M
L)
Streamflow Monitoring
Current Yr Streamflow
2006/07 Streamflow
Recession Curve
30.2%
26.1%
43.7%
Streamflow forecast range of flow probability by BoM, refer to "Seasonal Outlook" below
Given the above average rainfall and La Nina conditions strengthening this summer and into the next year, currently there is no indication that
restrictions will need to be implemented in the next 12 months.
Recent demand is tracking
within the forecast band.
0
200
400
600
800
06/11 07/11 09/11 11/11 12/11 02/12 04/12 05/12 07/12 08/12
Cu
mu
lati
ve R
ain
fall
(mm
)
Rainfall Monitoring
Current Yr Cumulative Rainfall
2006/07 Cumulative Rainfall
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Stre
amfl
ow
(ML)
Cumulative Streamflow
10th %ile 90th %ile 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Rai
nfa
ll (m
m)
Cumulative Rainfall
10th %ile 90th %ile 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
From the data so far it appears that the 2009/10
streamflow has been impacted by the bushfire
event. Streamflow was very low in 2009/10 despite reasonably high rainfall. This indicates higher vegetation
regrowth water uptake during 2009/10.
Interestingly 2010/11 had
high rainfall but the streamflow was also high,
The next few years will be able to give a clearer picture
as to how streamflow in the catchment has been impacted by the bushfire regrowth.
The Yea water supply system proved to be highly reliable in 2006/2007 and restrictions would not be expected in a return to dry scenario within
the next two years.
The Bureau streamflow forecast suggests that in the next 3 months there is a 30.2%
chance that there will be low flow (orange region on the "Streamflow Monitoring"
chart), 43.7% of near median flow (green region) and 26.1% of high flow (blue region). This analysis is based on inflows to Lake Eildon, upstream of Yea.
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2005/06 2007/08 2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/16 2017/18 2019/20
Nu
mb
er
of
Co
nn
ect
ion
s
An
nu
al D
em
and
(M
L)
Total Demand vs Forecast
Historic Demand Baseline Demand High Demand
Low Demand Number of Connections
Top Related