GVW 2060 A Sustainable Urban Water Future · GVW 2060 A Sustainable Urban Water Future Water Supply...

GVW 2060

A Sustainable Urban Water Future

Water Supply Demand Strategy

2012-2060

March 2012

Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060

March 2012

Page | 2


March 2012

Page | 3

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive Summary ................................................................................................................... 7

1. Introduction................................................................................................................ 15

2. Framework for the Strategy Development ................................................................ 15

2.1 Policy Framework for Water Supply-Demand Strategies ............................................... 15

2.2 Regulatory Requirements for Water Sources ................................................................ 16

2.2.1 Bulk Entitlements ......................................................................................................... 16

2.2.2 River Basin Caps and Sustainable Diversion Limits .................................................. 17

2.2.3 Murray Darling Basin Plan ........................................................................................... 17

2.2.4 Streamflow Management Plans .................................................................................. 17

2.2.5 Heritage Rivers ............................................................................................................. 18

2.2.6 Victorian River Health Strategy ................................................................................... 18

2.2.7 Groundwater Supplies ................................................................................................. 19

2.2.8 Recycled Water ............................................................................................................ 19

2.3 Other Legislative and Regulatory Requirements ........................................................... 19

2.3.1 Permanent Water Conservation Rules ....................................................................... 19

2.3.2 Water Efficiency Labelling and Standards ................................................................. 20

2.3.3 Statement of Obligations ............................................................................................. 20

2.4 Recent Drought Experience ............................................................................................ 21

2.5 Objectives of the WSDS ................................................................................................... 22

2.6 GVW 2055 Outcomes ...................................................................................................... 23

3. Goulburn Valley Water Systems ................................................................................ 24

4. Strategy Development Process ................................................................................. 28

4.1 General ............................................................................................................................. 28

4.2 Community Engagement ................................................................................................. 28

4.3 Levels of Service .............................................................................................................. 29

4.4 Demand Forecasts .......................................................................................................... 30

4.4.1 Residential Demand Model ......................................................................................... 30

4.4.2 Commercial Demand Forecast ................................................................................... 30

4.4.3 Major Customer Demand Forecast ............................................................................. 31

4.4.4 Distribution System Non-Revenue Water Forecast.................................................... 31

4.4.5 Headworks Non-Revenue Water Forecast ................................................................. 31

4.4.6 Baseline Demand Forecast Summary ........................................................................ 32

4.4.7 Demand Scenarios ...................................................................................................... 32

4.5 Supply Forecasts.............................................................................................................. 33

4.5.1 Supply Scenarios ......................................................................................................... 33

4.5.2 Climate Change Scenarios .......................................................................................... 35


March 2012

Page | 4

4.6 Demand and Supply Forecast Summary ........................................................................ 35

4.7 Alternative Water Atlas .................................................................................................... 37

4.8 Options Assessment ........................................................................................................ 38

5. Action Plans ............................................................................................................... 38

5.1 General ............................................................................................................................. 38

5.2 Brewery Creek System – Woods Point ........................................................................... 38

5.2.1 Overview of Supply-Demand Balance ......................................................................... 38

5.2.2 Demand and Supply Options....................................................................................... 39

5.2.3 Action Plan for the Brewery Creek System ................................................................. 40

5.3 Delatite River System – Mansfield ................................................................................. 40


5.3.2 Community Consultation ............................................................................................. 42


5.3.4 Action Plan for the Delatite River System .................................................................. 44

5.4 Upper Delatite River System – Merrijig and Sawmill Settlement ................................. 46



5.4.3 Action Plan for the Upper Delatite River System ....................................................... 47

5.5 Regulated Goulburn System ........................................................................................... 48



5.5.3 Action Plan for the Regulated Goulburn System ....................................................... 51

5.6 Katunga Groundwater System – Katunga ..................................................................... 52



5.6.3 Action Plan for the Katunga System ........................................................................... 53

5.7 Mollisons Creek System – Pyalong ................................................................................. 54




5.7.4 Action Plan for the Mollisons Creek System............................................................... 57

5.8 Regulated Murray System ............................................................................................... 58



5.8.3 Action Plan for the Regulated Murray System ........................................................... 60

5.9 Nine Mile Creek System – Longwood ............................................................................. 60



5.9.3 Action Plan for the Nine Mile Creek System ............................................................... 62


March 2012

Page | 5

5.10 Seven Creeks and Mt Hut Creek System – Euroa and Violet Town.............................. 62




5.10.4 Action Plan for the Seven Creeks and Mt Hut Creek System .................................... 68

5.11 Seven Creeks System – Strathbogie .............................................................................. 69



5.11.3 Action Plan for the Strathbogie System ...................................................................... 71

5.12 Steavenson River System – Marysville and Buxton ...................................................... 71



5.12.3 Action Plan for the Steavenson River System ............................................................ 72

5.13 Sunday Creek System – Broadford and Kilmore ........................................................... 73




5.13.4 Integrated Water Management Option ....................................................................... 78

5.13.5 Action Plan for the Sunday Creek System .................................................................. 80

5.14 Yea River System - Yea .................................................................................................... 81



5.14.3 Action Plan for the Yea System ................................................................................... 82

6. Alternative Level of Service Assessment ................................................................... 83

6.1 Stage 3 Water Restrictions as Minimum Standard ....................................................... 83

6.2 Unrestricted Supply to Critical Public Assets ................................................................. 83

7. Water Security Outlook .............................................................................................. 84

8. Recommendations ..................................................................................................... 85

9. References ................................................................................................................. 87

APPENDIX 1 – Community Engagement Plan ......................................................................... 89

APPENDIX 2 – Alternative Water Atlas ................................................................................. 103

APPENDIX 3 – Water Security Outlooks ............................................................................... 105


March 2012

Page | 6


March 2012

Page | 7

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Goulburn Valley Water Background

Goulburn Valley Water (GVW) supplies water to 54 towns utilising 13 water supply systems

as shown in Table 1.

Table 1: Goulburn Valley Water Supply Systems

Towns Supplied Source of Water

Woods Point Brewery Creek and Goulburn

River

Mansfield Delatite River

Merrijig and Sawmill Settlement Delatite River

Alexandra, Avenel, Bonnie Doon, Congupna, Corop, Colbinabbin,

Dookie, Eildon, Girgarre, Goulburn Weir, Katandra West, Kirwan’s

Bridge, Kyabram, Merrigum, Molesworth, Mooroopna, Murchison,

Nagambie, Rushworth, Seymour, Shepparton, Stanhope, Tallarook,

Tallygaroopna, Tatura, Thornton, Tongala, Toolamba

Goulburn River

Katunga Groundwater

Pyalong Mollisons Creek

Barmah, Cobram, Katamatite, Nathalia, Numurkah, Picola,

Strathmerton, Wunghnu, Yarroweyah

Murray System

Longwood Nine Mile Creek

Euroa and Violet Town Seven Creeks, Mt Hut Creek

Strathbogie Seven Creeks

Marysville and Buxton Steavenson River

Broadford, Clonbinane, Heathcote Junction, Kilmore, Wandong,

Waterford Park

Sunday Creek and Goulburn

River

Yea Yea River

Purpose of the Water Supply Demand Strategy

Water Supply-Demand Strategies (WSDS) are developed to identify the best mix of measures

to maintain a balance between the demand for water and the available supply now and into

the future. The balance between supply and demand is to be achieved taking into

consideration:

A long-term outlook of 50 years;

The total water cycle, consistent with the principles of integrated water management;

Social, environmental and economic costs and benefits; and

Risks and uncertainty, such as population growth.


March 2012

Page | 8

GVW previously completed a WSDS in 2007 titled ‘GVW 2055 A Sustainable Urban Water

Future’.

The WSDS is to be prepared by 31 March 2012, and within each five yearly period

thereafter, in accordance with Clause 6.1 of the Draft Statement of Obligations (DSE,

2011b).

This document represents the five-yearly update of the WSDS for GVW.

Strategy Development Process

The scope for the development of the WSDS was based on the Guidelines for the

Development of a WSDS (DSE, 2011a) produced by the Department of Sustainability and

Environment.

The strategy development process has involved the following actions:

Undertaking community engagement;

Establishing levels of service;

Developing a demand forecast;

Assessing demand scenarios;

Updating water resource models;

Assessing supply scenarios which include climate change;

Developing an Alternative Water Atlas;

Developing Action Plans for each water supply system to maintain the supply-demand

balance.

Community Engagement

A community engagement plan was developed for the WSDS. A copy of the community

engagement plan is located in Appendix 1.

The community engagement plan was presented to a meeting of GVW’s Corporate Customer

Reference Committee (CCRC) in June 2011 for feedback prior to adoption of the plan.

Key aspects of the plan are summarised as follows:

Formation of a project steering committee representing key stakeholders;

Engagement with the CCRC and steering committee on levels of service targets,

minimum service levels, planning assumptions, level of risk and initiatives to address

future imbalances in supply and demand;

Engagement directly with communities that are supplied from systems with a predicted

shortfall in the supply-demand balance in the short to medium term.


March 2012

Page | 9

Levels of Service

GVW’s current level of service objectives for maintaining an adequate supply to customers

are specified as follows:

Moderate water restrictions (Stages 1 and 2) are not desired more frequently on

average than 1 year in 10; and

More severe water restrictions (Stages 3 and 4) are not desired more frequently on

average than 1 year in 20.

The level of service objectives are applied equally across all GVW supply systems

The current level of service objectives were discussed with both the CCRC and the Steering

Committee. Alternative approaches to expressing levels of service such as a minimum

volume or percentage of water available were presented to the CCRC.

The following outcomes were adopted based on discussions in relation to levels of service:

The existing level of service targets will be retained for the development of the WSDS;

Stage 4 water restrictions will be assessed as the minimum service standard;

An alternative minimum service standard of Stage 3 restrictions will also be assessed;

The impact of providing unrestricted supply to critical public assets will be assessed.

Demand Forecast

A baseline demand forecast was developed for the WSDS to cover the period from 2011 –

2060.

Water demand was categorised into the following components:

Residential customer demand;

Commercial and minor industrial customer demand;

Major customer demand;

Distribution system non revenue water; and

Headworks non-revenue water.

A building block approach was adopted to aggregate forecasts for each demand category in

predicting future total demand for each system.

The baseline demand forecast is summarised in Table 2 by the different components of

demand.


March 2012

Page | 10

Table 2: Baseline Demand Forecast

Demand Component

2011 Demand

(ML)

2060 Demand

(ML)

Residential Demand 13,634 23,158

Commercial Demand 3,836 5,125

Major Customer Demand 6,479 6,479

Distribution System Non-Revenue Water 2,392 3,563

Headworks Non-Revenue Water 2,941 4,056

Total 29,281 42,380

Demand and Supply Scenarios

A range of demand and supply scenarios were developed. The scenarios were used to

produce demand and supply envelopes for each system. Examples of the scenarios

considered for development of the demand and supply envelopes are shown in Figure 1 and

2.

Figure 1: Demand Forecast Envelope for the Goulburn System (Source: GHD, 2011b)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

An

nu

al D

em

an

d (

ML

)

Year

Baseline 20% over-estimate

20%under-estimate 10% over-estimate

10% under-estimate 5% over-estimate

5% under-estimate Low Demand

High Demand


March 2012

Page | 11

Figure 2: Supply Forecast Envelope Example (Source: GHD, 2011b)

Demand and Supply Forecast Summary

A summary of the demand and supply (yield) forecasts based on water resource modelling

for a range of scenarios is shown in Table 3.

A number of systems will require action to be undertaken in future to improve the supply-

demand balance.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Sys

tem

Yie

ld (

ML

)

Baseline

Dry CC

Historic

Median -10yrs

Median +10yrs

Wetter Conditions

Return to Dry Conditions

Modelling Uncertainty -

10%

Modelling Uncertainty

+10%

High Supply Forecast

Low Supply Forecast

Final Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012–2060

March 2012

Page | 12

Table 3: Demand and Supply Forecast Summary (Source: GHD, 2011c)

System 2012 WSDS Demand (ML/year) 2012 WSDS Yield (ML/year)

Historical

Climate

Median Climate

Change

Dry Climate Change Return to Dry

Conditions

(1997 – 2009) 2011 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060

Regulated Goulburn 20,449 22,956 28,301 33,490 33,490 33,490 33,490 33,490 33,490

Regulated Murray 5,108 5,508 6,317 5,593 5,593 5,593 5,593 5,593 5,593

Sunday Creek (Broadford &

Kilmore) System 1,446 2,054 4,146 2,086 1,818 1,693 1,736 1,326 1,374

Nine Mile Creek (Longwood)

System 53 54 57 72 70 63 63 63 65

Mollisons Creek (Pyalong) System 41 48 63 37 35 35 32 32 35

Brewery Creek (Woods Point)

System 29 29 28 30 30 30 30 30 30

Yea River (Yea) System 244 290 405 438 438 438 438 438 438

Steavenson River (Marysville &

Buxton) System 135 219 262 462 462 462 462 462 462

Seven Creeks (Strathbogie) System 18 17 17 23 23 23 23 23 23

Seven Creeks (Euroa & Violet

Town) System 775 843 988 710 630 560 567 504 540

Delatite River (Mansfield) System 560 710 1,083 830 750 680 680 530 510

Delatite River (Merrijig & Sawmill

Settlement) System 68 87 136 235 235 235 235 235 235

Katunga 53 58 68 77 77 77 77 77 77


March 2012

Page | 13

Recommendations

Recommendations have been developed to undertake actions to improve the

supply-demand balance based on three separate timeframes (short term, medium term,

long term).

The short term period covers the remainder of the Water Plan 2 period and the Water Plan 3

period.

The medium and long term recommendations have the flexibility to be brought forward or

deferred depending on the demand and supply scenarios which eventuate in future.

The following recommendations are made as a result of the GVW Water Supply Demand

Strategy 2011–2060:

Short Term (2012-2018)

Non revenue water losses should be verified for a number of systems and programs

implemented to reduce losses if economically justified (benefits outweigh costs);

Assess opportunities from the Alternative Water Atlas;

Implement demand management initiatives if they are economically justified (benefits

outweigh costs);

Continue existing streamflow monitoring programs to reduce uncertainty in water

resource modelling;

Monitor demands at Woods Point following the installation of customer metering;

Recognise the need to transfer entitlement from the Goulburn system to mitigate

shortfalls in other towns in future planning;

Adopt water cartage as an infrequent (expected one in twenty years for short

durations) measure to supplement supply for the Upper Delatite Diver system if

streamflows fall below diversion limits;

Transfer of groundwater entitlement from Strathmerton to Katunga to protect against

low allocation years;

Adopt water cartage as a measure to supplement supply for the Mollisons Creek

(Pyalong) system in dry years;

Implement dam safety works at Longwood to return Nine Mile Creek Reservoir to full

design capacity of 27ML;

Recycle Water Treatment Plant sludge supernatant water at Euroa;

Construct a new 300ML off stream storage and a permanent pump station on Seven

Creeks for the Seven Creeks (Euroa and Violet Town) system;


March 2012

Page | 14

Construct pre-treatment works at the Broadford Water Treatment Plant to provide

capacity for increased usage of Goulburn River water;

Connection of the drought contingency pump station which transfers Goulburn River

water from Broadford to Sunday Creek Reservoir to a permanent power supply;

Purchase land for a future tank site at Kilmore;

Review the feasibility of an integrated water management option for Kilmore as part of

the next update of the WSDS;

Undertake additional community consultation on adopting Stage 3 water restrictions

and unrestricted supply to critical public assets as alternative service standards. This

should be undertaken as part of the Water Plan 3 consultation.

Medium Term (2018-2030)

Construction of a pipeline from Tooborac to Pyalong to supplement supply for the

Mollisons Creek system;

Construction of an additional 20ML off stream storage for the Mollisons Creek system;

Reconstruct Abbinga Reservoir at Euroa and increase capacity to 700ML;

Construction of an interconnection pipeline between Broadford and Kilmore;

Review strategy for water cartage at Upper Delatite during low flow periods.

Long Term (2030-2060)

Increase raw water diversion pipeline capacity and construct additional off stream

storage for the Delatite River (Mansfield) system;

Consider purchasing additional entitlement from the Goulburn system to maintain a

desirable buffer to protect against risk and uncertainty;

Consider purchasing additional entitlement from the Murray system to reduce the

reliance on annual transfers from Goulburn system bulk entitlements.


March 2012

Page | 15

1. INTRODUCTION

Water Supply-Demand Strategies (WSDS) are developed to identify the best mix of

measures to maintain a balance between the demand for water and the available

supply now and into the future. The balance between supply and demand is to be

achieved taking into consideration:

A long-term outlook of 50 years;

The total water cycle, consistent with the principles of integrated water

management;

Social, environmental and economic costs and benefits; and

Risks and uncertainty, such as population growth.

Goulburn Valley Water (GVW) previously completed a WSDS in 2007 titled ‘GVW

2055 A Sustainable Urban Water Future’. The WSDS is to be prepared by 31 March

2012, and within each five yearly period thereafter, in accordance with Clause 6.1

of the Draft Statement of Obligations (DSE, 2011b). This document represents the

five-yearly update of the WSDS for GVW.

2. FRAMEWORK FOR THE STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT

2.1 Policy Framework for Water Supply-Demand Strategies

The policy framework for Water Supply Demand Strategies is outlined in the

Guidelines for the Development of a Water Supply Demand Strategy (DSE,

2011a). Key points from the guidelines are as follows:

Water corporations manage water resources and provide water supply

and sewerage services to customers. The actions of water

corporations are guided by long-term and short-term planning tools

that set out plans for action over the next 50 years as well as plans

for action in the immediate to short-term, including what to do in

response to problems if and when they arise;

Long term planning tools include Water Supply Demand Strategies,

which aim to balance supply and demand over the next 50 years, and

regional Sustainable Water Strategies, which identify threats and

opportunities for water supply over a similar time scale.

The Northern Region Sustainable Water Strategy (NRSWS) was completed

in 2009 and covers an area of northern Victoria which includes the entire

GVW service region. The NRSWS introduced a number of policies that

directly impact on the water resource management actions available to

GVW. These policies included the introduction of system reserve for the

Regulated Goulburn and Regulated Murray systems and carryover rules.

The policies introduced as a result of the NRSWS have been incorporated

into the water resource modelling used in the development of this WSDS.


March 2012

Page | 16

2.2 Regulatory Requirements for Water Sources

There are a number of legislative and regulatory controls which need to be

considered in developing the WSDS. This section outlines these controls

and how they influence the decisions that GVW may make in future in

relation to maintaining a balance between the demand for water and

available supply.

2.2.1 Bulk Entitlements

GVW has been issued with Bulk Entitlements for extraction of

water from rivers and storages for the majority of towns that it

supplies. The Bulk Entitlements specify a number of conditions

including maximum annual volume of extraction, and in many

cases there are restrictions on the daily rate of extraction. The Bulk

Entitlements are in the form of a Ministerial Order issued under the

provisions of the Water Act (1989). GVW also has a licence to

extract groundwater to supply Katunga.

Existing Bulk Entitlements are listed below in Table 2-1.

Table 2-1: Bulk Entitlements held by Goulburn Valley Water

Water Source Water Supply System / Towns Maximum Annual Entitlement

Volume (ML/Year)

Brewery Creek Woods Point 30

Delatite River Mansfield 1,300

(2,600ML in any 2 year period)

Upper Delatite River Merrijig & Sawmill Settlement 235

Goulburn River Regulated Goulburn 33,490

Mollisons Creek Pyalong 75

Murray System Regulated Murray 5,593

Nine Mile Creek Longwood 120

Seven Creeks & Mt Hut Creek Euroa & Violet Town 1,990

Seven Creeks Strathbogie Future BE likely to be 23ML

Steavenson River Marysville & Buxton 462

Sunday Creek Broadford & Kilmore 2,875

Yea River Yea 438

A number of the Bulk Entitlements are subject to minimum passing

flow rates which limit diversions by GVW. There are no additional

environmental obligations identified in the current Bulk

Entitlements.


March 2012

Page | 17

2.2.2 River Basin Caps and Sustainable Diversion Limits

The water supply systems operated by GVW are within the Murray

Darling basin where there is a Cap on diversions. The Cap limits

water extractions to the volume of water that would have been

delivered under 1993/94 levels of development and no new

allocation of entitlements is permitted within the Murray Darling

Basin system. While the Cap for Victoria has provision for climate

adjusted volumes, the Bulk Entitlements held by GVW state an

upper limit for annual extraction in any one year. For the purpose

of the WSDS it has been assumed that any additional future

sources of water will need to be acquired by the purchase of

entitlements.

2.2.3 Murray Darling Basin Plan

A draft Basin Plan has been released by the Murray Darling Basin

Authority and is currently at a consultation stage.

The draft Basin Plan identifies that water resource plans will be

prepared to achieve sustainable diversion limits in future. The

sustainable diversion limits will not apply until 2019, however a

review of progress towards achieving the sustainable diversion

limits will be undertaken in 2015.

The draft Basin Plan has established sustainable diversion limits

for the Victorian Murray and Goulburn water resource plan areas

which may impact on GVW. The sustainable diversion limits are

identified as less than the current baseline diversion limit for both

the Victorian Murray and Goulburn.

The impact on GVW from the draft Basin Plan is currently not clear

and for the purpose of the WSDS it has been assumed that GVW

bulk water entitlements are not impacted by the Basin Plan. The

draft Basin Plan currently identifies that critical human needs

water is the highest priority water user.

Given that the sustainable diversion limit targets will not apply until

2019, future updates of the WSDS will consider any impacts on

GVW from the Basin Plan.

2.2.4 Streamflow Management Plans

Streamflow Management Plans define the rules for sharing

between different water users in unregulated rivers. Streamflow

Management Plans are only developed in priority streams across

Victoria where there are competing uses for water.


March 2012

Page | 18

GVW aims to maintain the health of all streams when developing

options. There are likely to be opportunities in future to reduce

extractions during low flows in the summer period by increasing

winter and spring diversions and utilising off stream storages. This

would lead to an improvement in river health.

2.2.5 Heritage Rivers

The purpose of the Heritage Rivers Act 1992 is to provide

protection of public land. This applies particularly to parts of rivers

and river catchment areas in Victoria that have significant nature

conservation, recreation, scenic or cultural heritage attributes. The

Act specifies whether impoundments or artificial barriers can be

constructed and the degree to which new water diversions are

permitted.

The Goulburn River (from Lake Eildon to the River Murray), the

Howqua River (from the junction of the north and south branches

to Lake Eildon), and the Big River (from the junction of Spring and

Oaks Creeks to the junction of Fryer Creek and Big River Arm at

Lake Eildon), have been listed as Heritage River Areas.

The heritage river and natural catchment areas have been taken

into account when considering future water supply options for

GVW’s water supply systems.

2.2.6 Victorian River Health Strategy

The Victorian River Health Strategy outlines the long-term direction

for the management of Victoria's rivers. It provides a vision for the

management of rivers in Victoria, policy direction on issues

affecting river health and a blueprint for integrating efforts on

rivers and ensuring that the most effective river health benefits are

achieved for the effort and resources invested.

The intent of a Regional River Health Strategy is to:

Establish objectives for river systems and river reaches, and

to set priorities to achieve these;

Engage communities in both the development and

implementation of the strategy;

Articulate the priorities for all relevant river health activities

across an entire Catchment Management Authority region;

Build an evidence-based and robust case for government

investment in river health.


March 2012

Page | 19

High priority rivers have been identified through Regional River

Health Strategies. The Murray River (including the Goulburn River

as a Murray tributary) has been identified as one of a number of

high priority rivers for improving flows.

On high priority rivers, Catchment Management Authorities will

integrate river restoration with the management of the

Environmental Water Reserve (EWR) to:

Reinstate and/or protect critical river and riparian habitat;

Ensure effective delivery of the EWR, such as refurbishment

of weirs or infrastructure that inhibits the release of the EWR

or improving floodplain connections;

Demonstrate the benefits of protecting and restoring the

health of rivers to catchment communities through

information, education and involvement;

Monitor and assess the health of the rivers and to determine

future actions.

2.2.7 Groundwater Supplies

GVW currently holds two groundwater licences for supply to

Katunga and Strathmerton. The Strathmerton licence is currently

not used for supply to Strathmerton. The Katunga and

Strathmerton bores are located in a Groundwater Supply

Protection Area that is subject to a Groundwater Management

Plan.

2.2.8 Recycled Water

Recycled water produced from wastewater management facilities

is governed under the Environment Protection Act 1970 with

supporting Guidelines for Environmental Management: Use of

Reclaimed Water EPA Publication No, 464.2 prepared in 2003.

This legislation places limits on the quality of recycled water

required for specific uses.

2.3 Other Legislative and Regulatory Requirements

2.3.1 Permanent Water Conservation Rules

A Permanent Water Conservation By-law was introduced in January

2004 and was aimed at encouraging customers to conserve water

particularly in outside use. The By-Law limited times of watering

and prohibited some inefficient watering practices.

In March 2011, the Victorian Government announced that a

comprehensive review of Drought Response Plans (including water

restrictions) and Permanent Water Saving Plans (including

permanent water saving rules) would be conducted across Victoria.


March 2012

Page | 20

The review has been completed and a new Permanent Water

Saving Plan was approved in November 2011. For GVW customers

the major change is that the permitted period for the use of fixed

sprinklers will now be between 6pm and 10am. Previously the

period was between 5pm and 10am. Hand-held hoses fitted with a

trigger nozzle can be used at any time. Public gardens, lawns and

playing surfaces using watering systems are limited to the same

hours, but are now be required to have a rain or soil moisture

sensor installed to control the system. Many of the other changes

relate to the granting of exemptions, including an exemption for

the establishment of warm season grass, and for eliminating the

need for the preparation of a waterMAP by large water users.

A model water restriction by-law has also been developed as part

the review which can now be used by water corporations to create

their own by-law. The model water restriction by-law includes four

levels of water restrictions which is consistent with past by-laws in

place at GVW.

2.3.2 Water Efficiency Labelling and Standards

The Water Efficiency Labelling and Standards Scheme (WELS)

requires certain water-using products to be labelled for water

efficiency.

The scheme was established on 1 July 2006 as a co-operative

Commonwealth/state and territory regulatory system to help

reduce domestic water consumption. Under the scheme, product

suppliers are required to provide water efficiency information, and

star-ratings, to consumers - clothes washers, dishwashers,

showers, taps, toilets, urinals and flow controllers. Industry must

register these products with the WELS Regulator.

The scheme is funded from industry registration fees and

contributions from federal, state and territory governments. The

WELS scheme has its own Act, The Water Efficiency Labelling and

Standards Act 2005, and is underpinned by Australian Standard

AS/NZS 6400.

The WELS scheme will contribute to reduced in-house demand in

the GVW region through the increased use of water efficient

products.

2.3.3 Statement of Obligations

Section 7.2 of the Draft Statement of Obligations (DSE, 2011b)

outlines the following requirements for GVW in relation to river

health:


March 2012

Page | 21

The Corporation must, where waterways and wetlands are

used for the supply of water, develop and implement plans

and programs consistent with any guidelines issued by the

Secretary to:

(a) Seek to enhance ecological benefits where service

standards to customers are not compromised;

(b) work cooperatively with the Victorian Environmental

Water Holder and relevant agencies;

(c) have regard to any guidelines issued by the Minister for

that purpose; and

(d) make available to the public information on its activities

to enhance ecological benefits.

2.4 Recent Drought Experience

Drought conditions were experienced for extended periods from 1997 to

2009 across the GVW region.

A number of GVW towns experienced high level water restrictions (Stage 4)

for extended periods. Drought response plans were updated a number of

times during this period and actions from the plans were successfully

implemented to manage water supplies through the drought.

The Regulated Goulburn system Bulk Entitlement proved to be reliable

during the drought period and provides a highly secure supply to a large

number of GVW towns.

The completion of the first WSDS in 2007 highlighted the impact of the

extended period of drought on level of service targets and system yield

forecasts. A number of systems which reliably achieved level of service

targets under historical conditions were not as secure under the drought

conditions which eventuated.

Key learnings from the recent drought for GVW have been:

The benefits from maintaining updated drought response plans.

The impact on level of service targets and system yield from climate

which varies substantially from historical conditions.

The reliability of the Regulated Goulburn system Bulk Entitlement and

the opportunities that it provides to secure supplies for additional

towns through interconnections and transfers.


March 2012

Page | 22

2.5 Objectives of the WSDS

The objectives of Water Supply-Demand Strategies from the Guidelines

(DSE, 2011) are to facilitate efficient and effective urban water planning

and investment to ensure:

Safe, secure, reliable and affordable water supplies that meet

society’s needs;

Customers have access to desired water products and services, and

can choose to use water for activities they value highly;

All water resources – including rainwater, stormwater and recycled

water – are utilised in ways that are efficient and fit-for-purpose,

whilst ensuring that public and environmental health are protected;

Water projects also aim to enhance the liveability, productivity,

prosperity and environment of our cities and towns – wherever

possible;

Water needs of environmental assets are transparently considered

and delivered;

Water planning is subject to a transparent and rigorous decision-

making process, with clear roles and responsibilities and

accountabilities, which can adapt to the changing environment.

The key principles for the development of the WSDS for GVW are:

Water supply systems should be designed to provide an agreed

minimum level of service;

Planning should be based on the best available information on

current and future water resources;

Planning should be scenario based, incorporating uncertainty in

supply and demand.

All water supply and demand options should be assessed on a robust

and transparent basis, examining the social, environmental and

economic costs and benefits;

Pricing and markets should be used to help balance the supply and

demand for water, where it is efficient and feasible to do so;

Plans and strategies should be able to be adapted as necessary to

reflect additional information and knowledge;

The value of individual options to the overall supply-demand balance

portfolio should recognise supply characteristics as well as changing

circumstances.


March 2012

Page | 23

2.6 GVW 2055 Outcomes

The Delatite River system (Mansfield) and the Sunday Creek System

(Broadford and Kilmore) were identified as having immediate shortfalls in

the supply-demand balance in GVW 2055.

The Upper Delatite system (Merrijig and Sawmill Settlement) and the Nine

Mile Creek System (Longwood) were identified as having a shortfall in the

supply-demand balance in the short term. For both systems an extended

period of stream flow monitoring was recommended to address uncertainty

in the modelling undertaken to predict supply availability.

Since the completion of GVW2055 the following actions have been

implemented to address the identified shortfalls:

A new 350ML raw water storage has been constructed at Mansfield;

A pipeline has been constructed from the Goulburn River to

Broadford;

A stream flow monitoring site has been installed on the Upper Delatite

River to obtain monitoring data for water resource model calibration.

The calibration of the water resource model using stream flow data

has resulted in a prediction of increased supply availability in

comparison to the previous WSDS.

A stream flow monitoring site has been installed on the Nine Mile

Creek to obtain monitoring data for water resource model calibration.

The calibration of the water resource model using stream flow data

has resulted in a prediction of increased supply availability in

comparison to the previous WSDS.


March 2012

Page | 24

3. GOULBURN VALLEY WATER SYSTEMS

The area serviced by Goulburn Valley Water is shown in Figure 3.1.

Figure 3.1: Goulburn Valley Water Region


March 2012

Page | 25

Goulburn Valley Water supplies water to 54 towns utilising 13 water supply systems

as shown in Table 3-1.

Table 3-1: Goulburn Valley Water supply systems

Towns Supplied Source of Water

Woods Point

Brewery Creek and Goulburn

River

Mansfield Delatite River

Merrijig and Sawmill Settlement Delatite River

Alexandra, Avenel, Bonnie Doon, Congupna, Corop,

Colbinabbin, Dookie, Eildon, Girgarre, Goulburn

Weir, Katandra West, Kirwan’s Bridge, Kyabram,

Merrigum, Molesworth, Mooroopna, Murchison,

Nagambie, Rushworth, Seymour, Shepparton,

Stanhope, Tallarook, Tallygaroopna, Tatura,

Thornton, Tongala, Toolamba

Goulburn River

Katunga Groundwater

Pyalong Mollisons Creek

Barmah, Cobram, Katamatite, Nathalia,

Numurkah, Picola, Strathmerton, Wunghnu,

Yarroweyah

Murray System

Longwood Nine Mile Creek

Euroa and Violet Town Seven Creeks, Mt Hut Creek

Strathbogie Seven Creeks

Marysville and Buxton Steavenson River

Broadford, Clonbinane, Heathcote Junction,

Kilmore, Wandong, Waterford Park

Sunday Creek and Goulburn

River

Yea Yea River

Water usage over the past five years and the current baseline demand forecast is

shown in Table 3-2.

The current baseline demand forecast represents expected water demand in each

water supply system under existing conditions. Further detail in relation to the

preparation of the baseline demand forecast is provided in Section 4.4.


March 2012

Page | 26

Table 3-2: Raw Water Demand 2006 - 2011

Water Source Water Supply

System / Towns

Raw Water Demand (ML)

06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 Current

Baseline

Brewery Creek Woods Point 25 25 34 17 13 29

Delatite River Mansfield 512 591 839 584 456 560

Upper Delatite

River

Merrijig &

Sawmill

Settlement

75 60 71 62 63 68

Goulburn

River

Regulated

Goulburn 21,381 18,942 20,032 19,583 16,579 20,448

Katunga

Groundwater

Katunga 47 57 53 46 39 53

Mollisons

Creek

Pyalong 67 51 39 40 55 52

Murray

System

Regulated

Murray 4,554 3,798 4,324 4,681 4,016 5,109

Nine Mile

Creek

Longwood 57 52 50 49 41 53

Seven Creeks

& Mt Hut

Creek

Euroa & Violet

Town 618 662 801 681 525 775

Seven Creeks Strathbogie NA 14 17 16 16 18

Steavenson

River

Marysville &

Buxton 264 330 271 184 157 221

Sunday Creek Broadford &

Kilmore 1,236 440 620 2,339 680 1,652

Yea River Yea 226 227 259 233 175 244

Total 29,062 25,249 27,410 28,515 22,815 29,281

The following should be noted for Table 3-2:

Historical raw water demands for the Regulated Murray and Sunday Creek

systems do not include transfers from the Regulated Goulburn system;

Transfers from the Regulated Goulburn system to other systems are included

in the historical demand for the Regulated Goulburn system.

Raw water demand for 2008/2009 at Mansfield includes filling of a new

storage.

Raw water demand for the Sunday Creek system for 2009/2010 includes

filling of Sunday Creek Reservoir.

High raw water demand for Woods Point in 2008/2009 was due to system

leakage.


March 2012

Page | 27

A comparison between Bulk Entitlements and the current baseline demand forecast

is shown in Table 3-3.

Table 3-3: Bulk Entitlement Comparison to Baseline Demand Forecast

Water Source Water Supply

System / Towns

Maximum Annual

Entitlement Volume

(ML/Year)

Current

Baseline

Demand

(ML/year)

Brewery Creek Woods Point 30 29

Delatite River Mansfield

1,300

(2,600ML in any two year

period)

560

Upper Delatite

River

Merrijig &

Sawmill

Settlement

235 68

Goulburn River Regulated

Goulburn 33,490 20,448

Katunga

Groundwater Katunga

77

(maximum permissible

allocation of 70% from

110ML licence)

53

Mollisons Creek Pyalong 75 52

Murray System Regulated

Murray 5,593 5,109

Nine Mile Creek Longwood 120 53

Seven Creeks &

Mt Hut Creek

Euroa & Violet

Town 1,990 775

Seven Creeks Strathbogie Future BE likely to be

23ML 18

Steavenson

River

Marysville &

Buxton 462 221

Sunday Creek Broadford &

Kilmore 2,875 1,652

Yea River Yea 438 244

Total 46,702 29,281

Further details for each water supply source are provided in Section 5 of this

strategy.


March 2012

Page | 28

4. STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT PROCESS

4.1 General

The scope for the development of the WSDS was based on the Guidelines

for the Development of a WSDS (DSE, 2011) produced by the Department

of Sustainability and Environment.

The following section outlines the process that was followed to develop the

WSDS.

4.2 Community Engagement

A community engagement plan was developed for the WSDS. A copy of the

community engagement plan is located in Appendix 1.

The community engagement plan was presented to a meeting of GVW’s

Corporate Customer Reference Committee (CCRC) in June 2011 for

feedback prior to adoption of the plan.

Key aspects of the plan are summarised as follows:

Formation of a project steering committee representing key

stakeholders;

Engagement with the CCRC and steering committee on levels of

service targets, minimum service levels, planning assumptions, level

of risk and initiatives to address future imbalances in supply and

demand;

Engagement directly with communities that are supplied from

systems with a predicted shortfall in the supply-demand balance in

the short to medium term. Details of engagement with individual

communities is located in Section 5 of this document.

Placement of the draft WSDS and fact sheets on the GVW website.

The project steering committee which was formed for the project included

representatives from:

Campaspe Shire Council;

Department of Sustainability and Environment;

Goulburn-Murray Water;

Greater Shepparton City Council;

Mitchell Shire Council;

Moira Shire Council;

Murray Goulburn Co-Operative Company Limited (Major Customer);

Strathbogie Shire Council;

Tatura Milk Industries Limited (Major Customer).


March 2012

Page | 29

4.3 Levels of Service

GVW’s current level of service objectives for maintaining an adequate

supply to customers are specified as follows:

Moderate water restrictions (Stages 1 and 2) are not desired more

frequently on average than 1 year in 10; and

More severe water restrictions (Stages 3 and 4) are not desired more

frequently on average than 1 year in 20.

The level of service objectives are applied equally across all GVW supply

systems

The current level of service objectives were discussed with both the CCRC

and the Steering Committee. Alternative approaches to expressing levels of

service such as a minimum volume or percentage of water available were

presented to the CCRC.

Key points from discussions with both the CCRC and Steering Committee

were as follows:

Expressing levels of service in terms of frequency of water restrictions

is the clearest method for communicating service levels to customers;

Retaining the current level of service objectives was supported;

Adopting Stage 4 water restrictions as the minimum service level was

supported;

The Steering Committee supported GVW assessing the impact of

adopting Stage 3 restrictions as the minimum service standard;

The Steering Committee also supported assessing the impact of

providing unrestricted supply to critical public assets.

The following outcomes were adopted based on discussions in relation to

levels of service:

The existing level of service targets have been retained for the

development of the WSDS;

Stage 4 water restrictions were assessed as the minimum service

standard;

An alternative minimum service standard of Stage 3 restrictions was

also assessed;

The impact of providing unrestricted supply to critical public assets

was also assessed.


March 2012

Page | 30

4.4 Demand Forecasts

A baseline demand forecast was developed for the WSDS to cover the

period from 2011 – 2060.

Water demand was categorised into the following components:

Residential customer demand;

Commercial and minor industrial customer demand;

Major customer demand;

Distribution system non revenue water; and

Headworks non-revenue water.

A building block approach was adopted to aggregate forecasts for each

demand category in predicting future total demand for each system

4.4.1 Residential Demand Model

Two multi-variate regression models have been developed to

forecast residential demand. The models have been developed

based on the aggregated demand for all water supply systems

managed by GVW and include climatic variables and restrictions on

use variables.

Separate models are used for the northern and southern areas of

GVW’s region to improve forecast accuracy and recognise differing

demand patterns and water usage.

Water consumption can be categorised as discretionary and non-

discretionary. Non-discretionary water consumption essentially

consists of in-house use. Discretionary consumption is all other

water usage, dominated by outside house use and is the major

contributor to variability of demand. The major demand modifiers

are temperature, rainfall, usage restrictions and water

conservation initiatives.

Projections for population growth and subsequent changes in

water connection numbers were derived from Victoria in Future

data available from the Department of Planning and Community

Development website.

4.4.2 Commercial Demand Forecast

Commercial and minor industrial water demand per assessment is

relatively static. This lack of variability does not warrant the

development of separate complex forecasting models.


March 2012

Page | 31

For each town an average demand per customer has been

adopted for forecasting taking into account the predicted increase

in customers. Growth rates for new commercial customers have

been developed based on consideration of residential growth rates

and historic growth in customer numbers.

4.4.3 Major Customer Demand Forecast

Major customers were contacted by GVW and provided with the

opportunity to submit future projections for water usage.

Major customer demand is sensitive to factors such as climatic

variations, changes in technology and economic conditions. It is

often difficult for major customers to provide future projections for

water usage due to these factors.

Where a major customer has provided future projections for water

usage, this information has been used to inform the demand

forecast.

Where a major customer has not provided future projections for

water usage, GVW has reviewed historical water usage data for the

customer and adopted an average level of demand based on this

review.

For the majority of major customers, future projections have not

been provided beyond the next five years. Major customer demand

is assumed to remain constant beyond the next five years.

4.4.4 Distribution System Non-Revenue Water Forecast

Distribution system non-revenue water comprises water main

cleaning, fire fighting, unmetered consumption and leakage.

The adopted volume of distribution system non-revenue water for

each town has been selected based on a review of historical

volumes of non-revenue water.

4.4.5 Headworks Non-Revenue Water Forecast

Headworks non-revenue water comprises water treatment plant

production water usage, evaporation from off-stream storages

where applicable, unmetered water usage and leakage on bulk

water supply mains.

The adopted volume of headworks non-revenue water for each

town has been selected based on a review of historical volumes of

non-revenue water.


March 2012

Page | 32

4.4.6 Baseline Demand Forecast Summary

The baseline demand forecast for each category of demand for

2011 and 2060 is summarised in Table 4-1.

Table 4-1: Baseline Demand Forecast

Demand Component

2011

Demand (ML)

2060

Demand

(ML)

Residential Demand 13,634 23,158

Commercial Demand 3,836 5,125

Major Customer Demand 6,479 6,479

Distribution System Non-

Revenue Water 2,392 3,563

Headworks Non-Revenue

Water 2,941 4,056

Total 29,281 42,380

4.4.7 Demand Scenarios

Consultant GHD was engaged by GVW to develop demand and

supply scenarios which are documented in a report titled ‘Water

Supply Demand Strategy 2011-2060 Water Resources Modelling

Part B, baseline Yield and Reliability Scenario Modelling’ (GHD,

2011b).

The baseline demand forecast is intended to represent the most

likely of plausible demand scenarios. Sensitivity analysis was

undertaken to assess the impact of changes to components of the

demand forecast. Demand components which were varied in the

sensitivity analysis included population forecasts, new residential

connection consumption rates and non-revenue water.

A demand forecast envelope was produced as a result of the

sensitivity analysis. The demand forecast envelope for the

Goulburn system is shown in Figure 4.1.


March 2012

Page | 33

Figure 4.1: Demand Forecast Envelope for the Goulburn System (Source: GHD, 2011b)

4.5 Supply Forecasts

Consultant GHD was engaged by GVW to update yield and reliability

estimates for water supply systems.

There are ten water supply systems operated by GVW which source water

from unregulated river systems. The ten systems are represented by nine

REALM models (Delatite River and Upper Delatite River are a single model).

REALM is a computer based water supply system simulation package.

Yield forecasts for the Regulated Goulburn and Regulated Murray systems

have been based on the bulk entitlements and the yield forecast for

Katunga has been based on the groundwater extraction licence.

The updating of REALM models is documented in a report titled ‘Water

Supply Demand Strategy 2011-2060 Water Resource Modelling Part A,

Update of System REALM Models and Hydrologic Datasets’ (GHD, 2011a).

4.5.1 Supply Scenarios

A number of scenarios were assessed to develop a supply forecast

envelope for each water supply system. The scenarios which were

considered included:

Historic streamflow conditions;

Climate change impacted streamflow at 2030 and 2060.

Separate scenarios were developed for Dry, Median, Wet and

Return to Dry conditions.

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

An

nu

al D

em

an

d (

ML

)

Year

Baseline 20% over-estimate

20%under-estimate 10% over-estimate

10% under-estimate 5% over-estimate

5% under-estimate Low Demand

High Demand


March 2012

Page | 34

Climate change impacted streamflow occurring earlier or

later than currently estimated;

Modelling error and uncertainty. Models used to derive yield

estimates have been assessed as having high moderate or

low level accuracy with error bands of +/-5%, +/- 10% and

+/- 15% being adopted to reflect accuracy.

Figure 4.2 illustrates the method used to define the supply

forecast envelope, detailing the baseline, high supply and low

supply forecasts. The median climate change scenario has been

adopted as the primary baseline forecast. Sensitivity analysis has

shown that the high supply forecast is generally defined by the

degree of model uncertainty (at 2011) and the yield under historic

climate conditions (at 2060). The low supply forecast is generally

defined by the degree of model uncertainty (at 2011) and the dry

climate change condition at 2060.

Figure 4.2: Supply Forecast Envelope Example (Source: GHD, 2011b)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Sys

tem

Yie

ld (

ML

)

Baseline

Dry CC

Historic

Median -10yrs

Median +10yrs

Wetter Conditions

Return to Dry Conditions

Modelling Uncertainty -

10%

Modelling Uncertainty

+10%

High Supply Forecast

Low Supply Forecast


March 2012

Page | 35

4.5.2 Climate Change Scenarios

The Guidelines for the Development of a Water Supply-Demand

Strategy (DSE, 2011a) provide guidance for assessing the impacts

of potential impacts of climate change on rainfall, evaporation and

runoff. The impacts for the Goulburn-Broken and Upper Murray

River Basins are described in Table 4-2 for Wet, Median and Dry

condition scenarios.

Table 4-2: Impacts on Runoff, Rainfall and Evaporation at 2030 and 2060 (Source: GHD,

2011b)

Scenario 2030 2060

Goulburn –

Broken Basin

Upper Murray

Basin

Goulburn –

Broken Basin

Upper Murray

Basin

Runoff

Wet -3% 0 -5% 0%

Median -12% -38% -21% -38%

Dry -21% -85% -38% -85%

Rainfall

Wet 0% 2% 0% 2%

Median -5% -10% -11% -10%

Dry -7% -16% -14% -16%

Evaporation

Wet 3% 7% 6% 7%

Median 2% 1% 4% 1%

Dry 2% 5% 3% 5%

The presentation of climate change scenarios in Section 5 of this

document represents the wet, median and dry scenarios from the

WSDS Guidelines as high yield, median climate change (median

cc) and low yield respectively.

For a number of water supply systems, the Bulk Entitlement is the

limiting factor for system yield rather than the climate change

scenarios. Further details are provided in Section 5 for individual

water supply systems where this applies.

4.6 Demand and Supply Forecast Summary

A summary of the demand and supply (yield) forecasts based on water

resource modelling for a range of scenarios is shown in Table 4-3.


March 2012

Page | 36

Table 4-3: Demand and Supply Forecast Summary (Source: GHD, 2011b)

System 2012 WSDS Demand (ML/year) 2012 WSDS Yield (ML/year)

Historical

Climate

Median Climate Change Dry Climate Change Return to Dry

Conditions

(1997 – 2009) 2011 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060

Regulated Goulburn 20,449 22,956 28,301 33,490 33,490 33,490 33,490 33,490 33,490

Regulated Murray 5,108 5,508 6,317 5,593 5,593 5,593 5,593 5,593 5,593

Sunday Creek (Broadford & Kilmore)

System

1,446 2,054 4,146 2,086 1,818 1,693 1,736 1,326 1,374

Nine Mile Creek (Longwood) System 53 54 57 72 70 63 63 63 65

Mollisons Creek (Pyalong) System 41 48 63 37 35 35 32 32 35

Brewery Creek (Woods Point) System 29 29 28 30 30 30 30 30 30

Yea River (Yea) System 244 290 405 438 438 438 438 438 438

Steavenson River (Marysville & Buxton)

System

135 219 262 462 462 462 462 462 462

Seven Creeks (Strathbogie) System 18 17 17 23 23 23 23 23 23

Seven Creeks (Euroa & Violet Town)

System

775 843 988 710 630 560 567 504 540

Delatite River (Mansfield) System 560 710 1,083 830 750 680 680 530 510

Delatite River (Merrijig & Sawmill

Settlement) System

68 87 136 235 235 235 235 235 235

Katunga 53 58 68 77 77 77 77 77 77


March 2012

Page | 37

4.7 Alternative Water Atlas

An Alternative Water Atlas has been developed to identify potential sources

of alternative water that may form part of the future supply-demand

balance.

The objectives of the Alternative Water Atlas from the Water Supply

Demand Strategy Guidelines (DSE, 2011a) are to:

Identify the volumes of stormwater, recycled water and other

alternative water sources available within the works of the

Corporation (including wetlands and retardation basins) and/or local

council;

Help to inform future opportunities for the use of treated stormwater,

recycled water and other alternative water sources in the control of

either a water corporation or local council;

Be presented in any way that is considered appropriate for the

relevant water system, from a sophisticated computer model to a

simple graphical representation.

The Alternative Water Atlas is located in Appendix 2.

Towns included in the Alternative Water Atlas in the draft WSDS fall into the

following categories:

Towns with a predicted shortfall in the supply-demand balance in the

short to medium term (Broadford, Euroa, Kilmore, Mansfield, Pyalong

and Violet Town);

GVW’s largest towns (Shepparton and Mooroopna);

Towns with major redevelopment (Marysville).

For the final WSDS, an additional category of towns has been included. The

additional category is growth towns and it includes:

Alexandra

Avenel

Cobram

Kyabram

Nagambie

Numurkah

Seymour

Tatura


March 2012

Page | 38

4.8 Options Assessment

The future supply-demand balance for each water supply system has been

considered under a range of supply and demand scenarios.

Options to address shortfalls either in the current or future supply-demand

balance are outlined in Section 5 of this document.

5. ACTION PLANS

5.1 General

The assessment of options and development of an action plan to address

any current or future shortfalls in the supply-demand balance for each

water supply system was undertaken by Consultant GHD. The outcomes are

documented in a report titled ‘Report for Water Supply Demand Strategy

2011-2060, Supply and Demand Options Assessment’ (GHD, 2011c).

A summary of the supply-demand balance, options considered and an

action plan for each water supply system is included in this section of the

Water Supply Demand Strategy.

5.2 Brewery Creek System – Woods Point

5.2.1 Overview of Supply-Demand Balance

The town of Woods Point is supplied from a gravity diversion weir

on Brewery Creek. A supplementary supply is available from the

Goulburn River downstream of Brewery Creek. Supply is from

Brewery Creek provided that a passing flow of 0.2ML/day is met. If

the passing flow is not achieved, supply is from the Goulburn River.

There is no passing flow limit on supply from the Goulburn River.

The current Bulk Entitlement for Woods Point is 30ML per year.

There is currently no passing flow limitation on diversions from the

Goulburn River and the full Bulk Entitlement is expected to be

available from the Goulburn River in all climate scenarios. This

results in the yield currently equalling the bulk entitlement for all

supply scenarios (represented as baseline – median cc in Figure

5.1). Baseline demand is currently similar to the Bulk Entitlement.

The supply-demand balance for the Brewery Creek system is

shown in Figure 5.1.


March 2012

Page | 39

Figure 5.1: Supply-Demand Balance for the Brewery Creek System

Note: The line shown in Figure 5.1 titled ‘Baseline – Median CC’ represents yield under a medium

climate change scenario. This term is used in all supply-demand balance figures in this

section.

For Woods Point there is no difference between a low yield, median

climate change or high yield scenario, as the Bulk Entitlement is

the limiting factor in all scenarios.

5.2.2 Demand and Supply Options

The baseline demand for Woods Point is currently similar to the

available supply. There is no growth currently forecast for Woods

Point. Customers in Woods Point currently do not have individual

meters and the level of non revenue water is currently estimated. A

total of 15ML per annum of non revenue water is currently

included in the baseline demand forecast.

Future actions to improve the supply-demand balance would

involve:

Verifying the level of non revenue water through customer

metering; and

Implementing actions to reduce non revenue water.

The installation of customer metering is scheduled to be

undertaken during 2012. This will potentially result in a reduction

in demand which should be monitored.

Given that there is currently no shortfall in supply at Woods Point,

non-revenue water reduction should only be undertaken if it is

economically justified.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Sys

tem

Yie

ld (

ML/a

)

Year

BASELINE - MEDIAN CC

BASELINE DEMAND

HIGH DEMAND

LOW DEMAND

SUPPLY DEMAND BALANCE


March 2012

Page | 40

5.2.3 Action Plan for the Brewery Creek System

Table 5-1 provides a summary of recommended actions for the

Brewery Creek system.

Table 5-1: Summary of Actions for the Brewery Creek System

Actions Timeframe Estimated

Cost


Monitor demand levels following the

installation of customer metering 2012 -

2018

Verify distribution system non-revenue

losses and if real and economically

justified implement programs to reduce

losses.

2012 -

2018 $5,000


No specific actions

Long Term (2030-2060)

No specific actions

5.3 Delatite River System – Mansfield


Mansfield has a gravity diversion from the Delatite River to Ritchie

Reservoir No.1 and Ritchie Reservoir No.2 which have a combined

storage capacity of 530ML. The construction of Ritchie Reservoir

No.2 was a recommendation from the previous WSDS (GVW

2055).

Water is transferred from the first two Reservoirs to the 45ML

capacity No.3 Reservoir at Mansfield Water Treatment Plant.

The Bulk Entitlement is 2,600ML over a two year period. The

allowable diversion is zero when streamflow is below 18ML/day

and has a stepped scale up to 4.4ML/day of diversion for River

flows greater than 32.2ML/day.

A schematic of the Mansfield supply system is shown in Figure 5.2.


March 2012

Page | 41

Figure 5.2: Schematic of Mansfield Supply System (Source: SKM,

2009a)

The current baseline demand for Mansfield is 560ML per year. The

supply-demand balance for the Delatite River system is shown in

Figure 5.3.

Figure 5.3: Supply-Demand Balance for the Delatite River System

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Sys

tem

Yie

ld (

ML/a

)

Year


HIGH YIELD

LOW YIELD

BASELINE DEMAND

HIGH DEMAND

LOW DEMAND



March 2012

Page | 42

5.3.2 Community Consultation

A shortfall in the supply-demand balance is predicted for Mansfield

within the medium to long term.

The following community consultation was undertaken to obtain

feedback on future demand and supply options for Mansfield:

A fact sheet was prepared and placed on the GVW website;

The fact sheet and the location of a community information

booth were advertised in the local newspaper;

An information booth was setup outside of a local

supermarket on 24 November 2011.

Feedback received from consultation can be summarised as

follows:

A number of customers indicated that additional storage to

provide improved water supply security would be supported.

A number of customers supported demand side initiatives

such as reducing leakage, rainwater harvesting and third

pipe systems.

General feedback was that GVW should consider a range of

demand and supply side options. No strong preferences were

provided for demand or supply side options.


A shortfall in the supply demand balance is currently predicted in

the medium to long term. Based on baseline demand and a

medium climate change supply scenario, actions would need to be

undertaken by 2033. Actions may need to be brought forward if

higher demand or increased climate change scenarios occur. The

demand side options shown in Table 5-2 have been considered for

Mansfield.

It should be noted that there are no major customers, which limits

opportunities for any significant stormwater harvesting or recycling

schemes. GVW currently supplies recycled water to the Mansfield

Golf Course.

A feasibility study for a third pipe recycled water scheme for new

development was completed in the last five years. The outcome of

the study was that the scale of new development in Mansfield is

not large enough for a third pipe scheme to be economically viable.


March 2012

Page | 43

Table 5-2: Assessment of Demand Side Options

Option Adopted

Saving (ML

per year)

Likely Impact on

Future Supply

Side Works

(years deferral)

Basis

Capital assistance for

stormwater harvesting for

Council park / garden

irrigation

2 0.1 Based on substituting

50% of Council depot and

median strip demand.

Leak reduction in the

distribution system

18 1.2 Based on a reduction of

non revenue water from

12% to 8%.

Free water audits with water

efficiency recommendations

for rural/residential customers

with use >1ML per year

3.5 0.2 Based on a 30% saving

for 50% of audited

customers.

Promotion of water efficient

appliances and rebates to the

Public

8.0 0.5 Based on 1.5% demand

reduction.

The demand side options will have minimal impact on deferral of

future supply side actions. Leak reduction in the distribution

system is the supply side option that is likely to achieve most

benefit for the supply-demand balance.

Supply side options can be implemented in three stages. The first

stage would involve the construction of a booster pump station to

enable the full Bulk Entitlement diversion rate to be accessed. The

current diversion rate is limited by the capacity of existing gravity

pipelines. The first stage would defer major capital works costs by

over five years.

The second stage of supply side options is shown in Table 5-3.

Note that options which include additional storage will have new

200ML storages constructed in two separate stages.

Table 5-3: Assessment of Long Term Supply Side Improvement Options

Option A Option B Option C Option D

Description New gravity

pipeline and

additional storage

New pumped

pipeline and

additional storage

Raw water from

Lake Eildon

Pump from Delatite

River and additional

storage

Capacity

(ML/d)

7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5

Capital Cost $10.3M $10M $8.6M $7.7M

Net Present

Cost

$2.2M $2.2M $2.2M $1.7M


March 2012

Page | 44


Advantages No pumping costs

Retain existing

pipe easements

and operating rules

Retain existing

pipe easements

and operating

rules

No storage

required

Additional security

as not reliant on

stream flow

Shorter pipeline

required then

Options A and B

Disadvantages Longer pipeline

required than

Option C and D

Risk that existing

pipeline needs to

be replaced earlier

increasing cost

Longer pipeline

required than

Option C and D

Pumping costs

Risk that existing

pipeline needs to

be replaced

earlier increasing

cost

Various approvals

required for new

extraction point

Pumping costs

Various approvals

required for new

extraction point

Pumping costs

TBL Rank =1 =1 4 3

Conclusion Likely to be more

expensive than

Option B although

preference should

be confirmed

following options

assessment

Potential saving

over Option A

although

preference should

be confirmed

following options

assessment

Not preferred as

all costs upfront

Potential savings

over Options A and

B, additional

investigations

required to confirm

if feasible

The long term options considered will require a change to the Bulk

Entitlement diversion rate from 4.4ML/day to 7.5ML/day.

Diversions could however move to a winter fill arrangement where

diversions would only be undertaken during months with highest

flows in the Delatite River.

5.3.4 Action Plan for the Delatite River System


Delatite River system. The impact of implementing the action plan

on the supply-demand balance is shown in Figure 5.4.

Table 5-4: Summary of Actions for the Delatite River (Mansfield) System

Actions Timeframe Estimated Cost


Verify distribution system non-revenue losses and if real and

economically justified implement program to reduce losses 2012-2018 $16,000


No specific actions


March 2012

Page | 45


Long Term (2030-2060)

Construct pipeline booster pump station 2033 $0.3 m

Design and construct replacement pipeline and pump station 2039 $4.8 m

Design and construct 200 ML storage 2039 $2.7 m

Increase Delatite River Weir daily extraction limit to 7.5 ML/d 2039

Design and construct 200 ML storage expansion 2053 $2.1 m

Figure 5.4: Future Supply-Demand Balance for the Delatite River System

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Sys

tem

Yie

ld (

ML/a

)

Year

BASELINE -

MEDIAN CC

BASELINE DEMAND

HIGH DEMAND

LOW DEMAND

AUGMENTED

SUPPLY

SUPPLY DEMAND BALANCE: PROPOSED AUGMENTATION

Additional 200 ML storage

Replace pipeline and pump

station

Increased BE diversion rate

Booster pump

station

Additional 200ML storage


March 2012

Page | 46

5.4 Upper Delatite River System – Merrijig and Sawmill Settlement


The Upper Delatite River system supplies the townships of Merrijig

and Sawmill Settlement. Water is diverted from the Delatite River

by pumping. The Bulk Entitlement is 235ML with allowable

diversion commencing at a minimum River flow of 5ML/day,

scaling up to a maximum of 2.8ML/day when the River flow is

greater than 7.8ML/day.

The baseline demand is estimated to be 68ML per year.

The yield of the system is defined as the bulk entitlement diversion

limit of 235ML. For the Upper Delatite River system there is no

difference between a low yield, median climate change or high

yield scenario, as the Bulk Entitlement is the limiting factor in all

scenarios.

The supply system has limited off stream storage and streamflow

needs to be sustained above the minimum threshold for

diversions. Analysis has shown that streamflows are predicted to

fall below the diversion threshold in the order of once every twenty

years for a duration of several weeks.

The most practical and economical method of addressing this

potential risk of shortfall is through water cartage. This is possible

due to the relatively small demand within the system and predicted

low frequency of the need for water cartage.

The supply-demand balance for the Upper Delatite River system is

shown in Figure 5.5. Note that supply scenarios are represented by

a single line (baseline – median cc), as the Bulk Entitlement is the

limiting factor for system yield.

Figure 5.5: Supply-Demand Balance for the Upper Delatite River System

0

50

100

150

200

250

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Sys

tem

Yie

ld (M

L/a

)

Year


BASELINE DEMAND

HIGH DEMAND

LOW DEMAND



March 2012

Page | 47


There is currently no predicted shortfall in the supply-demand

balance under any future scenarios.

A total of 16ML per annum of non revenue water is currently

included in the baseline demand forecast. Future actions to

improve the supply-demand balance would involve:

Verifying the level of non revenue water; and


Given that there is currently no shortfall in supply at Upper Delatite,

non revenue water reduction should only be undertaken if it is


In the event that streamflows were to reduce below minimum

diversion levels, water cartage could be used as a short term

measure in extreme low flow years (estimated one year in twenty

from water resource modelling) due to the low supply volumes

required.

5.4.3 Action Plan for the Upper Delatite River System


Upper Delatite River system.

Table 5-5: Summary of Actions for the Upper Delatite River System



Verify distribution system non-revenue losses and if

real and economically justified implement program to

reduce losses.

2012 - 2018 $5,000

Water cartage during low flow periods.

2012 - 2018

Will only be

required if extreme

low flows occur

Continued monitoring of streamflows to reduce

uncertainty in modelling of low River flows. 2012-2018


Review strategy for water cartage during low flow

periods.

Long Term (2030-2060)

No specific actions.


March 2012

Page | 48

5.5 Regulated Goulburn System


The Regulated Goulburn system includes supply to 24 towns with a

combined Bulk Entitlement of 33,490ML. The supplies are secured

by the large storages of Lake Eildon, Lake Nagambie and Waranga

Basin. The supply arrangements to each of the towns supplied

from the Goulburn system are outlined below.

Alexandra/Eildon/Thornton – Water is pumped from the

Goulburn River to a water treatment plant and supplied to

Alexandra, Eildon and Thornton. The Alexandra Bulk

Entitlement is 916ML with a maximum diversion rate of

7.4ML/day. A separate 471ML Bulk Entitlement is also

available at Eildon.

Bonnie Doon – Water is pumped from Lake Eildon to a 55ML

earthen storage. The Bulk Entitlement is 112ML, with a

maximum diversion rate of 2.0ML/day.

Colbinabbin – Water is pumped from the Waranga Western

Main Channel into an earthen storage. The Bulk Entitlement

is 89ML, with a maximum diversion rate of 1.0ML/day.

Corop – Water is pumped from the Waranga Western Main

Channel into an earthen storage. The Bulk Entitlement is

44ML, with a maximum diversion rate of 1.0ML/day.

Dookie – Water is pumped from the east Goulburn main

Channel into an earthen storage. The Bulk Entitlement is

160ML with a maximum diversion rate of 2.0ML/day.

Girgarre – Water is diverted from Goulburn-Murray Water’s

12/9 channel. The Bulk Entitlement is 100ML with a


Katandra West – Water is diverted from Goulburn-Murray

Water’s 2/24 channel. The Bulk Entitlement is 64ML with a


Kyabram – Water is diverted from a Goulburn-Murray Water

channel. The Bulk Entitlement is 2,000ML with a maximum

diversion rate of 12.0ML/day.

Molesworth – A Bulk Entitlement has recently been

developed which grants a 15ML Bulk Entitlement per year at

a diversion rate not exceeding 0.25ML/day. The diversion

point and entitlement has been included under the existing

Alexandra Bulk Entitlement.


March 2012

Page | 49

Murchison – Water is pumped from the Goulburn River. The

Bulk Entitlement is 350ML with a maximum diversion rate of

4.0ML/day.

Nagambie - Water is pumped from Lake Nagambie. The Bulk

Entitlement is 825ML with a maximum diversion rate of

9.0ML/day.

Rushworth - Water is pumped from the outlet channel of

Waranga Basin. The Bulk Entitlement is 530ML with a


Shepparton/Mooroopna/Congupna/Tallygaroopna/Toolamba

– Water is pumped from the Goulburn River at Shepparton.

The combined Bulk Entitlement is 18,270ML.

Stanhope – Water is diverted from Goulburn-Murray Water’s

1/12/9 channel. The Bulk Entitlement is 200ML with a


Tatura – Water is diverted from Goulburn-Murray Water’s 3/5

channel. The Bulk Entitlement is 2,600ML with a maximum

diversion rate of 29.0ML/day via two outlets.

Tongala – Water is diverted from Goulburn-Murray Water’s

28/9 and 16/28/9 channels. The Bulk Entitlement is

1,404ML with a maximum diversion rate of 22.0ML/day.

Seymour/Avenel/Tallarook – Water is pumped from the

Goulburn River at Seymour. The Bulk Entitlement is 5,340ML,

with a maximum diversion rate of 30ML/day.

The current baseline demand for the Regulated Goulburn system is

20,448ML per year.

Analysis of consumption data for new residential connections since

2008 indicates that new connections are using 15% less water on

average than existing connections. The baseline demand forecast

assumes that this reduction in water usage for new connections

continues in future. The demand reduction achieved by new

residential connections is likely to be related to changes in dwelling

type, increased usage of water efficient appliances, reduced

external garden/lawn areas and changes to customer behaviour.

The annual Regulated Goulburn system allocation is a direct ratio

of current inflows relative to the 99th percentile historic inflows. By

definition the bulk entitlement volume has an annual reliability of

99% as the reference 99th percentile inflow is adjusted periodically

in line with the long term trend in climate and inflows.


March 2012

Page | 50

The 99% reliability is assumed to be retained under climate

change scenarios. A 100% allocation in at least 99% of years

achieves the required level of service target for moderate level

restrictions no more frequently on average than 1 year in 10.

The yield from bulk entitlements held in the Regulated Goulburn

system is therefore defined by the bulk entitlement which can be

supplied at 99% reliability under all supply scenarios. A low yield

scenario has been established based on transfer of Regulated

Goulburn system water to the Regulated Murray system and the

Sunday Creek system in dry years. The supply-demand balance for

the Goulburn system is shown in Figure 5.6.

Figure 5.6: Supply-Demand Balance for the Regulated Goulburn System


A shortfall in the supply-demand balance is predicted in the long

term under a low yield scenario which includes transfers to the

Regulated Murray and Sunday Creek systems.

Carryover rules have been implemented in the Regulated Goulburn

System which enables GVW to retain unused entitlement in any

given year for potential use in subsequent years (subject to

carryover rules). Carryover will provide a means to mitigate the

risks associated with the gradual reduction of the buffer between

demand and available supply.

In the long term, purchase of additional bulk entitlement may also

need to be considered.

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Sys

tem

Yie

ld (

ML/a

)

Year


LOW YIELD

BASELINE DEMAND

HIGH DEMAND

LOW DEMAND



March 2012

Page | 51

A number of demand management opportunities will be

considered in the short term and implemented if they are

economically justified. The likely opportunities include:

Increased promotion of water efficiency;

Free water audits for high demand users;

Minimisation of distribution losses; and

Free water audits for major industrial customers.

The Alternative Water Atlas will also be used to assess

opportunities for substitution of demand, particularly at public

facilities.

5.5.3 Action Plan for the Regulated Goulburn System

The action plan for the Regulated Goulburn system is outlined in

Table 5-6.

Table 5-6: Summary of Actions for the Regulated Goulburn System


Cost


Recognise the reduction in entitlement when substituting water to

mitigate shortfalls in other towns (Regulated Murray and Sunday

Creek System).

2012

Monitor the implementation of carryover rules, and adjust GVW

internal allocation process as the understanding of risks improves. 2012

Assess preferred opportunities for demand management and

opportunities from the Alternative Water Atlas. 2012

Monitor consumption rates in new residential connections. 2012


economically justified implement program to reduce losses. 2012 - 2018 $0.2M



Long Term (2030-2060)

Consider purchasing additional entitlement from the Regulated

Goulburn System to maintain a desirable buffer to protect against

future risk and uncertainty.


March 2012

Page | 52

5.6 Katunga Groundwater System – Katunga


The Katunga water supply is sourced from the Katunga Deep Lead

by two groundwater bores. The annual licensed volume is 110ML

and the supply is located within the Katunga Groundwater Supply

Protection Area.

A management plan for the Katunga Groundwater Supply

Protection Area is in place which has established resource

management rules. The GVW licence is currently limited to a

maximum of 70% (77ML) and can be reduced to 50% (55ML),

depending on total groundwater use, groundwater levels and

allocations within the Goundwater Supply Protection Area.

The maximum licence allocation (70%) has been assessed as the

median climate change scenario. The minimum licence allocation

(50%) has been assessed as the low yield scenario.

The current baseline demand for Katunga is 53ML.

The supply-demand balance for the Katunga system is shown in

Figure 5.7.

Figure 5.7: Supply-Demand Balance for the Katunga System

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Sys

tem

Yie

ld (

ML/a

)

Year


BASELINE DEMAND

HIGH DEMAND

LOW DEMAND

LOW YIELD



March 2012

Page | 53


The baseline demand for Katunga (53ML) is currently similar to the

low yield scenario (55ML).

The baseline demand currently includes 19ML of non revenue

water in the distribution system. This is based on long term

averages. A leak detection program was undertaken during

2009/2010 which identified a number of potential sources of non

revenue water. Non revenue water for 2010/2011 reduced

significantly. If the reduction in non revenue water achieved in

2010/2011 is retained, a shortfall in the supply-demand balance

under the low yield scenario would be avoided in the long term.

Water trading is permitted within the Katunga Groundwater Supply

Protection Area. GVW currently holds a 730ML entitlement for the

nearby town of Strathmerton which is currently not used.

Supply to Katunga can be increased in future through either

temporary or permanent transfer of entitlement from

Strathmerton.

5.6.3 Action Plan for the Katunga System

The action plan for the Katunga system is outlined in Table 5-7.

Table 5-7: Summary of Actions for the Katunga System


Cost



economically justified implement program to reduce losses. 2012 - 2018 $2,000

Transfer of entitlement from Strathmerton to protect against low

allocation years. 2012 - 2018



Long Term (2030-2060)



March 2012

Page | 54

5.7 Mollisons Creek System – Pyalong


The Mollisons Creek system supplies water to Pyalong. Water is

pumped from a weir pool on Mollisons Creek into a 40ML raw

water storage basin. The Bulk Entitlement is 75ML, with a


The available yield is less than the baseline demand under all

supply scenarios considered.

The supply-demand balance for the Mollisons Creek system is


Figure 5.8: Supply-Demand Balance for the Mollisons Creek System

It should be noted that the demand curves exclude raw water

storage evaporation which is taken into account in the yield curves.

Total raw water usage (including evaporation) is currently 52ML

per year.

The quality of streamflow is extremely variable with a large

increase in salinity occurring immediately after rainfall periods as

salt which has accumulated within pools is transported down the

Creek.

For the 2013-2018 Water Plan period, GVW is planning to monitor

salinity levels in Mollisons Creek and determine if future works to

improve water quality are required.

Options to improve the supply-demand balance for Pyalong should

consider their potential to improve water quality (reduce salinity)

supplied to Pyalong customers.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Sys

tem

Yie

ld (

ML/a

)

Year

BASELINE - MEDIAN CC HIGH YIELD

LOW YIELD BASELINE DEMAND

HIGH DEMAND LOW DEMAND



March 2012

Page | 55


A shortfall in the supply-demand balance is predicted for Pyalong in

the short term. The following community consultation was

undertaken to obtain feedback on future demand and supply

options for Pyalong:


A community representative was contacted to obtain

feedback on the best method to engage with the community.

The suggested method was to mail the fact sheet and a

feedback form to all customers.

The fact sheet and feedback form were mailed to all Pyalong

customers.

The draft WSDS was discussed at a meeting of the Corporate

Community Reference Committee (CCRC) on 22 February

2011. A member of the Pyalong community was present at

the CCRC meeting and the action plan for Pyalong was

discussed in detail. Commencing engagement on water

quality issues and ensuring that GVW plans for future growth

were identified as key issues for Pyalong.



the short term.

The demand side options shown in Table 5-8 have been

considered for Pyalong. It should be noted that there are no major

customers, which limits opportunities for any significant

stormwater harvesting or recycling schemes. There is currently no

reticulated wastewater in Pyalong and therefore no opportunity for

wastewater recycling.


Option Adopted

Saving (ML

per year)

Likely Impact on

Future Supply Side

Works (years deferral)

Basis

Evaporation reduction

from the 40ML raw water

storage

6 10 Based on historical

rainfall and evaporation

data.


distribution system

0.5 0.8 Based on a reduction of


14% to 8%.


March 2012

Page | 56

Option Adopted

Saving (ML

per year)

Likely Impact on

Future Supply Side


Basis

Free water audits with

water efficiency

recommendations for

rural/residential

customers with use >1ML

per year


for 50% of audited

customers.

Promotion of water

efficient appliances and

rebates to the Public


reduction.

Evaporation reduction from the raw water storage could potentially

delay supply side works for up to ten years. A fixed cover over the

raw water storage would cost approximately $1.5M or $0.25M per

ML of water saved. This is approximately double the cost of

proposed supply side augmentation options.

The supply side options which have been considered are outlined

in Table 5-9.

Table 5-9: Assessment of Supply Side Improvement Options


Description Pipeline from

Kilmore

Pipeline from

Tooborac and

additional 20ML

storage

Additional 30ML

storage

Water Cartage in

Dry Years

Net Present Value

(over 50 years)

($3.5M) ($3.2M) ($2.4M) ($1.7M)

Advantages Existing WTP is not

required –

reduced operating

costs

Improved water

quality

Pipeline to be used to

supplement supply

only

Improved water quality

Lower capital cost

than Option A or B

Low capital cost

Disadvantages Sunday Creek

system

augmentation

would need to be

brought forward by

1 year

Feasibility needs to be

discussed with Coliban

Water

Requires additional

storage in addition to

the pipeline

No improvement in

water quality.

Lower supply

security than options

which have dual

supply sources.

Potentially long

periods of water

cartage if a return

to dry scenario

eventuated.

TBL Rank 4 3 2 1

Conclusion Lower risk than

Option B but a

longer pipeline is

required

Higher risk than

Option A but lower

costs.

Addresses supply

security but does not

improve water

quality

Lowest cost option

provided that

water quality is not

a concern


March 2012

Page | 57

The preferred option in the short term is to implement water

cartage in dry years. This strategy is currently achievable due to the

small volumes of water that are likely to be required. In the

medium term an augmentation option should be considered

further, particularly if water quality monitoring indicates that works

are required to address salinity. The preferred augmentation option

at this stage which can address water quality is Option B to

supplement supply with a pipeline from Tooborac.

5.7.4 Action Plan for the Mollisons Creek System

The action plan for the Mollisons Creek system is outlined in

Table 5-10.

Table 5-10: Summary of Actions for the Pyalong System


Short Term (2012 -2018)

Water cartage during dry years. 2012 – 2018

Consult community on water quality and monitor salinity. 2012 – 2018



Implement demand management initiatives if they are

economically justified. 2012 - 2018


Tooborac pipeline and booster pump station. 2025 $3.00M

20 ML offstream storage. 2030 $0.60M

Long Term (2030-2060)

Pyalong WTP refurbishment. 2040 $0.40M

The impact of implementing the action plan on the supply-demand

balance is shown in Figure 5.9.

Figure 5.9: Future Supply-Demand Balance for the Mollisons Creek System


March 2012

Page | 58

5.8 Regulated Murray System


The Regulated Murray System supplies eight towns with a

combined Bulk Entitlement of 5,593ML. The supply arrangement

for each of these towns is described below:

Barmah – Water is pumped from the River Murray. The

nominal Bulk Entitlement is 82ML with a maximum diversion

rate of 1.2ML/day.

Cobram/Strathmerton/Yarroweyah – Water is pumped from

the River Murray at Cobram. The nominal Bulk Entitlement is

3,525ML, with a maximum diversion rate of 18ML/day.

Katamatite – Water is diverted from Goulburn-Murray Water’s

7/3 channel. The nominal Bulk Entitlement is 84ML, with a


Nathalia – Water is pumped from the Broken Creek. The

nominal Bulk Entitlement is 652ML, with a maximum

diversion rate of 5.1ML/day.

Numurkah/Wunghnu – Water is pumped from the Broken

Creek at Numurkah. The nominal Bulk Entitlement is

1,206ML, with a maximum diversion rate of 8.5ML/day. The

raw water supply for Numurkah will change to a Goulburn-

Murray Water channel (within the Murray system) in the next

12 months.

Picola – Water is diverted from Goulburn-Murray Water’s

9/9/9 channel. The nominal Bulk Entitlement is 44ML, with a


The annual Bulk Entitlement allocation for the Regulated Murray

system is related to the general allocation for holders of high

reliability water shares. Demand in the Regulated Murray system is

approaching full utilisation of the Bulk Entitlement volume.

Shortfalls in supply have occurred in recent years due to low

allocations and have been addressed by trading Regulated

Goulburn system Bulk Entitlement.

The yield from Bulk Entitlements in the Regulated Murray system is

currently defined by the bulk entitlement volumetric limit.

Sensitivity analysis has shown that a 100% allocation can be made

in at least 90% of years under median climate change conditions

at 2030 and 2060. A 100% allocation in at least 90% of years

achieves the required level of service target for moderate level

restrictions no more frequently on average than 1 year in 10.


March 2012

Page | 59

The supply-demand balance for the Murray system is shown in

Figure 5.10. The system yield shown for the median climate

change scenario is the yield at which the level of service target can

be met.

Figure 5.10: Supply-Demand Balance for the Regulated Murray System


Given the relatively secure position of the Regulated Goulburn

system, future shortfalls in the supply-demand balance for the

Regulated Murray system will be met through transfers from the

Regulated Goulburn system. These transfers have been accounted

for in the long term planning for the Regulated Goulburn system in

Section 5.5.

In the long term, GVW may need to consider purchasing additional

Bulk Entitlement for the Murray system to reduce reliance on

transfers from the Regulated Goulburn system.

Industrial demand currently represents 42% of demand in the

Regulated Murray system and is a potential area of uncertainty in

demand forecasting.

A number of demand management opportunities will be

considered in the short term and implemented if they are

economically justified. The likely opportunities include:

Increased promotion of water efficiency;

Free water audits for high demand users;

Minimisation of distribution losses; and

Free water audits for major industrial customers.

The Alternative Water Atlas will also be used to assess

opportunities for substitution of demand, particularly at public

facilities.

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Sys

tem

Yie

ld (

ML/a

)

Year


BASELINE DEMAND

HIGH DEMAND

LOW DEMAND



March 2012

Page | 60

5.8.3 Action Plan for the Regulated Murray System

The action plan for the Regulated Murray system is outlined in

Table 5-11.

Table 5-11: Summary of Actions for the Regulated Murray System


Cost


Monitor changes in industrial use as it represents a large proportion

of total demand. Ongoing

Assess preferred opportunities for demand management and

opportunities from the Alternative Water Atlas. 2012





Long Term (2030-2060)

Consider the purchase of additional entitlement from the Regulated

Murray System to reduce the reliance on annual transfers from

Regulated Goulburn System bulk entitlements.

2040

5.9 Nine Mile Creek System – Longwood


The Nine Mile Creek system supplies Longwood. Water is diverted

from a 27ML on stream storage (Nine Mile Creek Reservoir). The

Bulk Entitlement is 120ML, with a maximum daily diversion rate of

1.0ML/day.

Following a dam safety review in 2005, the Nine Mile Creek

Reservoir has been operated at a reduced capacity of 22ML. Dam

safety works are planned to be undertaken to restore the full

capacity of 27ML.

A recommendation from the previous WSDS was to install

permanent stream flow monitoring at Longwood. A stream flow

monitor has been installed and is recording data that will reduce

the uncertainty in water resource modelling for Longwood.

The current baseline demand for Longwood is 53ML per year.

The supply-demand balance for the Nine Mile Creek system is



March 2012

Page | 61

Figure 5.11: Supply-Demand Balance for the Nine Mile Creek System


There are no major customers in Longwood, which limits


schemes. There is currently no reticulated wastewater in Longwood

and therefore no opportunity for wastewater recycling.

Non revenue water in the distribution system currently accounts for

14ML of demand in the baseline forecast. Leak detection

programs have been undertaken in recent years which have

reduced non revenue water from significantly higher levels. Leak

detections programs should be continued in future if economically

justified.

The dam safety improvement works which will return the Nine Mile

Creek Reservoir to 27ML capacity are expected to provide

adequate supply security for the forecast period.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Sys

tem

Yie

ld (

ML/a

)

Year






March 2012

Page | 62

5.9.3 Action Plan for the Nine Mile Creek System

The action plan for the Nine Mile Creek system is outlined in

Table 5-12.

Table 5-12 : Summary of Actions for the Nine Mile Creek System


Cost

Short Term (2012 - 2018)


economically justified implement program to reduce losses 2012 - 2018 $3,000

Dam safety works to rebuild dam to provide original design capacity

of 27 ML. 2013 $3.2M

Continued gauging of storage inflows to reduce uncertainty in current

yield estimates. 2012 - 2018



Long Term (2030-2060)


5.10 Seven Creeks and Mt Hut Creek System – Euroa and Violet Town


A group of storages on the Seven Creeks and Mt Hut Creek,

including Mountain Hut Creek Reservoir, Waterhouse Reservoir,

Polly McQuinns Reservoir and Abbinga Reservoir harvest water

which is then supplied to Euroa by gravity or through pumping.

Treated water is transferred to Violet Town from Euroa. A

schematic of the Euroa and Violet Town system is illustrated in

Figure 5.12.


March 2012

Page | 63

Figure 5.12: Schematic of the Euroa and Violet Town Water Supply System

The Bulk Entitlement for Euroa and Violet Town is 1,990ML, with a

maximum extraction rate of 12ML/day. The current baseline

demand is 775ML per year.

The current yield (at 90% reliability) is estimated to be less than

the baseline demand. The supply-demand balance for the Seven

Creeks and Mt Hut Creek system is shown in Figure 5.13.


March 2012

Page | 64

Figure 5.13: Supply-Demand Balance for the Seven Creeks and Mt Hut Creek System


A shortfall in the supply-demand balance is predicted for Euroa and

Violet Town in the short term. The following community

consultation was undertaken to obtain feedback on future demand

and supply options for Euroa and Violet Town:




An information booth was setup outside of local

supermarkets in Euroa and Violet Town on 11 November

2011.

The draft WSDS was presented to the Euroa Rotary Club on

19 January 2012.

The draft WSDS was presented to the Violet Town Action

Group on 07 March 2012.


follows:

A number of customers indicated that additional storage to

provide improved water supply security would be supported.

Customers provided various suggestions for the location of

the storage.

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Sys

tem

Yie

ld (

ML/a

)

Year


HIGH YIELD

LOW YIELD

BASELINE DEMAND

HIGH DEMAND

LOW DEMAND



March 2012

Page | 65


such as reducing leakage, and rainwater harvesting.

General feedback from the information booth was that GVW

should consider a range of demand and supply side options.

No strong preferences were provided for demand or supply

side options.

A number of Euroa Rotary Club members support the

construction of additional storage. Proposals for large

irrigation storages on Seven Creeks which were investigated

in the past (30+ years ago) were suggested by Rotary Club

members as potential storage options.

The large irrigation storages suggested are however a

significantly greater size than required for GVW, not

economically viable for GVW and may not be feasible due to

environmental impacts. The large irrigation storage options

suggested have not been considered further in this WSDS.

The Violet Town Action Group endorsed the actions from the

draft WSDS.

A public submission endorsed the actions from the draft

WSDS and suggested that GVW should continue to maintain

a focus on water conservation.



the short term. The demand side options shown in Table 5-13 have

been considered for Euroa and Violet Town.

It should be noted that there are no major customers, which limits


schemes. GVW currently supplies recycled water to the Euroa Golf

Course.


March 2012

Page | 66


Option Adopted

Saving

(ML per year)

Likely Impact on

Future Supply Side


Basis

Capital assistance for evaporation

and backwash reduction at Council

pool

2.3 0.3 Based on 50%

demand reduction.

Leak reduction in the distribution

system

5.0 0.7 Based on a

reduction of non

revenue water from

14% to 8%.

Free water audits with water

efficiency recommendations for

rural/residential customers with use

>1ML per year

1.4 0.2 Based on a 30%

saving for 50% of

audited customers.

Promotion of water efficient

appliances and rebates to the Public

9.0 1.3 Based on 1.5%

demand reduction.

Recycling of Water Treatment Plant

sludge supernatant

30.0 4.3 Based on existing

volumes that are

not recycled.

The demand side options which will have the most impact on

deferring future supply side works are recycling of sludge

supernatant at the Water Treatment Plant, promotion of water

efficient appliances and leak reduction in the distribution system.

Demand side options on their own cannot address the medium to

long term shortfall in the supply-demand balance. A number of

supply side options were considered from which a shortlist of five

has been developed.

The shortlisted supply side options are detailed in Table 5-14.


March 2012

Page | 67

Table 5-14 Assessment of Shortlisted Euroa and Violet Town Supply Options (Source: GHD 2011c)

Criteria A: Expand Abbinga Reservoir to

1000 ML (300 ML new storage+

upgrade existing storage to 700

ML)

B: New 400 ML storage at

site near Koorana and

upgrade Abbinga Reservoir to

600 ML

C: New 1000 ML

storage at site

near Koorana

D: New 1000 ML

storage at site near

Seven Creeks Estate

E: Supplement supply with

Goulburn system water from

the East Goulburn Main

Channel

Capital Cost $12 M $18 M $14 M $16 M $19 M

Net Present Value ($6.4M) ($10.8 M) ($10.0M) ($11.0M) ($13.6M)

Land ? ? ?

Approvals ?

Environmental/Trees ? ? ? ?

Energy

Security

TBL Rank 1 5 2 4 3

Advantage Less land acquisition and new

pipe/pump infrastructure

required

Added security by having

independent storages.

Retain Abbinga until new storage is constructed to maintain supply security.

Could sell Abbinga land to offset cost of new land.

Disadvantage

Requires land acquisition at

two sites

Requires new site and all associated

approvals and infrastructure

Highest cost option

Conclusion Preferred subject to detailed

costing and construction

planning

Not preferred Preferred only if reconstruction of Abbinga

to 1000 ML is not technically feasible or

significantly more expensive

Not preferred


March 2012

Page | 68

The preferred supply side option is to expand storage capacity at

the existing Abbinga Reservoir site to 1,000ML. This would be

achieved in two stages.

The first stage would involve the construction of a new 300ML

storage. The second stage would involve reconstruction of the

existing Abbinga Reservoir to a capacity of 700ML.

5.10.4 Action Plan for the Seven Creeks and Mt Hut Creek System

The action plan for the Seven Creeks and Mt Hut Creek system is

shown in Table 5-15.

Table 5-15 :Summary of Actions for the Seven Creeks and Mt Hut Creek System



Recycle WTP sludge supernatant 2014 $0.4 M

Promote water efficiency 2013 - 2018

Verify distribution system non-revenue losses and

if real and economically justified implement

program to reduce losses

2013 -2018

$26,000

Purchase land for future 300ML storage 2016 $0.4 M

Construct new 300 ML storage and

interconnecting pipework 2018

$3.7 M

Construct new offtake pump station on Seven

Creeks (10 ML/d) 2018 $0.3 M


Replace 3 km of Gooram pipeline (3 km x DN300) 2020 $1.6 M

Repair Abbinga and increase to 700 ML 2030 $6.0 M

Long Term (2030-2060)

No specific actions


March 2012

Page | 69



Figure 5.14: Future Supply-Demand Balance for the Seven Creeks and Mt Hut Creek

System

5.11 Seven Creeks System – Strathbogie


The Seven Creeks (Strathbogie) system supplies the township of

Strathbogie. Water is diverted from Seven Creeks by pumping.

There is currently no Bulk Entitlement for this system. A draft Bulk

Entitlement has recently been prepared which is based on a yearly

Bulk Entitlement of 23ML at a diversion rate not exceeding

0.5ML/day.


Historically streamflow has been sufficient to maintain supply to

the town, including the recent drought period. The yield of the

system has been defined as the proposed Bulk Entitlement of

23ML per year. There is currently no passing flow limitation in the

proposed Bulk Entitlement. This results in the yield currently

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Sys

tem

Yie

ld (

ML/a

)

Year

BASELINE - MEDIAN CC BASELINE DEMAND


AUGMENTED SUPPLY AUGMENTED DEMAND

SUPPLY DEMAND BALANCE: PROPOSED AUGMENTATION

Additional 300

ML storage

Reconstruct

Abbinga Reservoir

to 700 ML

Recycle WTP

sludge

supernatant

water


March 2012

Page | 70

equalling the bulk entitlement for all supply scenarios (represented

as baseline – median cc in Figure 5.15)

The supply-demand balance for the Seven Creeks (Strathbogie)

system is shown in Figure 5.15.

Figure 5.15: Supply-Demand Balance for the Seven Creeks (Strathbogie) System

For Strathbogie there is no difference between a low yield, median

climate change or high yield scenario, as the proposed Bulk

Entitlement will be the limiting factor in all scenarios.









Given that there is currently no shortfall in supply at Strathbogie,

non revenue water reduction should only be undertaken if it is


In the event that streamflows were to reduce below historical lows,

water cartage could be used as a short term measure in dry years

due to the low supply volumes required.

0

5

10

15

20

25

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Sys

tem

Yie

ld (

ML/a

)

Year


BASELINE DEMAND

HIGH DEMAND

LOW DEMAND



March 2012

Page | 71

5.11.3 Action Plan for the Strathbogie System

Table 5-16 displays an action plan for the Strathbogie system.

Table 5-16 Summary of Actions for the Strathbogie System


Cost



economically justified implement program to reduce losses 2012 - 2018 $1,000

Water carting in dry years if required


No specific actions

Long Term (2030-2060)

No specific actions

5.12 Steavenson River System – Marysville and Buxton


The Steavenson River system supplies Marysville and Buxton from

a diversion point on the Steavenson River. Water diversions are

transferred by a gravity pipeline to the 100ML Aub Cuzens

Reservoir. The Bulk Entitlement is 462ML per year with a

maximum diversion rate of 2.0ML/day when river flows exceed

4.0ML/day.

Bushfires in 2009 resulted in the loss of a significant number of

properties supplied by this system. The current baseline demand is

significantly below pre bushfire demand levels. It is currently

assumed that properties will be re-established over the next 5-10

years.

An analysis of the impacts of the bushfires on stream hydrology

(SKM, 2009) estimates a 30% reduction in runoff in years of peak

reduction. Water resource modelling of a scenario involving a 30%

reduction in streamflow has shown that the Bulk Entitlement of

462ML per year can continue to be accessed at the required level

of service. For the Steavenson River system there is no difference

between a low yield, median climate change or high yield scenario,

as the Bulk Entitlement is the limiting factor in all scenarios.

The supply-demand balance for the Steavenson River system is

shown in Figure 5.16. Note that supply scenarios are represented


March 2012

Page | 72

by a single line (baseline – median cc), as the Bulk Entitlement is

the limiting factor for system yield.

Figure 5.16: Supply-Demand Balance for the Steavenson River System


There are no major customers in Marysville, which limits


schemes. There may however be opportunities if any large scale

developments are undertaken to rebuild properties. The Alternative

Water Atlas should reflect any opportunities for alternative water

supplies as part of the redevelopment of Marysville.

Recycled water from the Marysville Wastewater Management

Facility is currently supplied to the Marysville Golf Club.

Non revenue water in the distribution system currently accounts for

79ML of demand in the baseline forecast. Leak detection

programs should be undertaken in future if economically justified.

5.12.3 Action Plan for the Steavenson River System

Table 5-17 displays an action plan for the Steavenson River

system.

Table 5-17 Summary of Actions for the Steavenson River System

Actions Timeframe

Estimated

Cost


Assess opportunities from the Alternative Water Atlas. 2012

Verify distribution system non-revenue losses and implement program 2012 - 2018 $10,000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Sys

tem

Yie

ld (

ML/a

)

Year


BASELINE DEMAND

HIGH DEMAND

LOW DEMAND



March 2012

Page | 73

Actions Timeframe

Estimated

Cost

to reduce losses if economically justified (Note that loss reduction

has been assumed in the demand forecast).

Continued gauging of streamflow and assessment to monitor the

progressive impacts from bushfires. 2012 - 2018


Monitor and respond to growth and long term impact of bushfires on

streamflow.

Long Term (2030-2060)

Monitor and respond to growth and long term impact of bushfires on

streamflow.

5.13 Sunday Creek System – Broadford and Kilmore


The towns of Broadford, Clonbinane, Heathcote Junction, Kilmore,

Wandong and Waterford Park are supplied from the Sunday Creek

system. Water is harvested and stored in the on stream Sunday

Creek Reservoir which has a capacity of 1,700ML. Water may also

be harvested from diversion weirs on Hazels and Harpers Creeks to

Hollowback Reservoir. The bulk entitlement is 2,875ML in any one

year with a ten year average to not exceed 22,380ML. A flow of

4.3ML/day can be taken from the diversion weirs and 16.3ML/day

from the storage.

The Broadford Water Treatment Plant (WTP) supplies Broadford,

Waterford Park and Clonbinane. The Broadford WTP receives water

from either Sunday Creek Reservoir by gravity or a pumped supply

from the Goulburn River.

The Kilmore WTP supplies Kilmore, Heathcote Junction and

Wandong. The Kilmore WTP receives water from Sunday Creek

Reservoir and Hazel and Harpers Creeks via Hollowback Reservoir.

A drought relief pump station can currently transfer 3ML/day of

Goulburn River water from Broadford to Kilmore via Sunday Creek

and Hollowback Reservoirs.

Bushfires in 2009 resulted in large parts of the Sunday Creek

supply catchment being burnt. Analysis of the impacts of the

bushfires on stream hydrology (SKM, 2009b) estimated a 21%

reduction in runoff in years of peak reduction.

Reductions in streamflows from bushfire impacts or climate

change in the Sunday Creek catchment will increase the volume of

water required to be transferred from the Goulburn system.


March 2012

Page | 74

A recommendation from the previous WSDS (GVW 2055) was to

construct a pump station and pipeline from the Goulburn River to

Broadford to improve supply security for this system. This pipeline

has been constructed and can provide a flow of up to 12ML/day to

Broadford from the Goulburn system bulk entitlement for Seymour.

A schematic of the Sunday Creek supply system is shown in

Figure 5.17.

Figure 5.17: Schematic of Sunday Creek Supply System


March 2012

Page | 75

The current baseline demand for the Sunday Creek system is

1,500ML per year. A high growth rate, particularly at Kilmore, is

currently being experienced and is expected to continue in future

due to the proximity of towns in this system to Melbourne.

The current yield for this system is based on Broadford being

supplied from the Goulburn River when Sunday Creek Reservoir

falls below 80% of capacity. Future shortfalls in the supply-demand

balance can be addressed through diversion of additional water

from the Goulburn River.

The supply-demand balance for the Sunday Creek system is shown

in Figure 5.18.

Figure 5.18: Supply-Demand Balance for the Sunday Creek System


A shortfall in the supply-demand balance is predicted for the

Sunday Creek system in the medium term.

The following community consultation was undertaken to obtain

feedback on future demand and supply options from communities

supplied from the Sunday Creek system:




0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Sys

tem

Yie

ld (

ML/a

)

Year


HIGH YIELD

LOW YIELD

BASELINE DEMAND

HIGH DEMAND

LOW DEMAND



March 2012

Page | 76

A community representative was contacted to determine the

most appropriate location for an information booth;

An information booth was setup outside of local newsagents

in Kilmore and Broadford on 17 November 2011.

The draft WSDS was presented to a meeting of the Kilmore

Rotary Club on 21 February 2012.


follows:

A number of customers indicated that additional usage of

Goulburn system water would be supported.


such as reducing leakage, and rainwater harvesting for new

properties.

A number of customers in Broadford highlighted the

environmental values of Sunday Creek and were supportive

of options that provide alternative supply sources to Sunday

Creek.

It was suggested at the Kilmore Rotary Club meeting that if

an integrated water management option becomes preferred

in future (for example recycled water in new developments),

GVW should seek to influence the planning of new

development areas.

General feedback was that GVW should consider a range of

demand and supply side options. No strong preferences were

provided for demand or supply side options.



the medium term.

The demand side options shown in Table 5-18 have been

considered for the Sunday Creek system. There is currently one

major customer in the Sunday Creek system.


March 2012

Page | 77


Option Adopted

Saving (ML

per year)

Likely Impact on

Future Supply Side


Basis

Capital assistance for

water recycling at

major customer

3.0 0.1 Based on 6% demand

reduction which has been

achieved for industry in

Melbourne.


distribution system

25.0 0.5 Based on a reduction of


14% to 8%.

Free water audits with

water efficiency

recommendations for

rural/residential

customers with use

>1ML per year


for 50% of audited

customers.

Promotion of water

efficient appliances

and rebates to the

Public


reduction.

The demand side options which will have the most impact on

deferring future supply side works are promotion of water efficient

appliances and leak reduction in the distribution system. There

may be opportunities from the Alternative Water Atlas that should

be considered in the short term.

Demand side options on their own cannot address the medium to

long term shortfall in the supply-demand balance.

Development of new operating rules for this system were

considered as part of the supply side options. A new set of

operating rules which maximise the use of Goulburn system water

in dry years with existing infrastructure can defer the need for any

augmentation until approximately 2030.

Short term works (pre treatment) will be required at the Broadford

Water Treatment Plant to enable increased usage of Goulburn

system water. The timing for these works will depend on actual

peak day water demands. There is currently a large degree of

uncertainty in peak day demand forecasts due to previous periods

of water restrictions, changes to behaviour and recent above

average rainfall years.


March 2012

Page | 78

The long term supply side option to address future shortfalls is to

construct infrastructure which can enable additional transfer of

water from the Goulburn system. The long term supply side

augmentation will involve:

Construction of a tank, pump station and interconnecting

pipeline between Broadford and Kilmore. Purchase of land

for the future tank at Kilmore should be undertaken in the

short term to secure an appropriate site;

Further augmentation of the capacity of the Broadford Water

Treatment Plant to supply treated water to Kilmore.

5.13.4 Integrated Water Management Option

An integrated water management option has been considered for

Kilmore as a possible measure to defer or avoid the next supply

side augmentation. The integrated water management option is

documented in a report titled ‘Kilmore Recycled Water Option’

(GHD, 2011d).

The integrated water management option involves reducing the

demand for potable water for new residential developments

through the construction of a third pipe system. The third pipe

system would be supplied with recycled water from the Kilmore

Wastewater Management Facility (WMF), treated to a Class A

standard. The Kilmore WMF will have additional volumes of

recycled water available in future that can either be used for

irrigation or potable water substitution.

A sensitivity analysis for the reduction in total demand achieved by

a third pipe system is shown in Table 5-19.

Table 5-19: Integrated Water Management Option Sensitivity Analysis

New

Developments

Connected

(%)

Reduction

in

Household

Usage (%)

Reduction in

Additional Future

Kilmore Demand

(%)

Potential Reduction in Total Potable Water Demand

2030 2040

ML/year % ML/year %

30% 30% 10% 40 2% 70 3%

50% 50% 25% 100 6% 170 9%

75% 30% 25% 100 6% 170 9%

75% 50% 38% 140 9% 250 13%

100% 50% 50% 185 12% 340 17%


March 2012

Page | 79

For the purpose of assessing this option it has been assumed that

up to 75% of new developments can be connected to a third pipe

network and that up to 50% of household water usage can be

substituted with recycled water.

The reduction in potable water demand achieved by this option can

potentially defer the next supply side augmentation

(interconnecting pipeline between Broadford and Kilmore) by ten

years from 2030 to 2040.

The estimated costs associated with an integrated water

management option are shown in Table 5-20.

Table 5-20: Integrated Water Management Option Costs

Supply Side Augmentation

Only

Integrated Water

Management Option

Interconnection Pipeline $6 – $8 M (2030) $5 – 6 M (2040)

Third Pipe Reticulation Network - $3 – $8 M (2015-2030)

Class A Plant 2.5 ML/d

2.5 ML/d

- $3 – $4 M (2015)

$3 – $4 M (2030)

WMF Augmentation

(incl. irrigation)

$5 M (2015)

$5 M (2030)

$4 M (2015)

$4 M (2030)

Total Capital Cost $16 – $18 M $22 – $30 M

Net Present Cost $8 – $9 M $11 – $16 M

Both the capital cost and net present cost of the integrated water

management option are higher than supply side augmentation

only.

The integrated water management option is currently not preferred

on the following basis:

Higher cost than supply side augmentation only;

It is based on the assumption that 75% of new properties can

connect. This will be dependent on the location of new

properties relative to the source of recycled water;

The integrated water management option does not avoid the

need for future supply side augmentation.

The feasibility of the integrated water management option should

be reviewed for any future updates to the WSDS.


March 2012

Page | 80

5.13.5 Action Plan for the Sunday Creek System

The action plan for the Sunday Creek system is shown in

Table 5-21.

Table 5-21: Summary of Actions for the Sunday Creek System


Short Term (2012 - 2018)

Monitor demands Ongoing

Assess opportunities from the Alternative Water Atlas. 2012

Verify distribution system non-revenue losses and implement program to

reduce losses if economically justified (Note that loss reduction has been

assumed in the demand forecast).

2012-2018 $50,000

Continued gauging of streamflow and assessment to monitor the

progressive impacts from bushfires. Ongoing

Review the feasibility of an integrated water management option as part of

the next WSDS update 2016

Broadford WTP Pre-Treatment Works (timing will depend on actual peak day

demand experienced).

Connection of the Drought Contingency pump station which transfers

Goulburn River water from Broadford to Sunday Creek Reservoir to a

permanent power supply.

2013-2020 $7M

Purchase land for a future tank site at Kilmore 2013 -

2018 $0.3M


Broadford-Kilmore Interconnection pipeline, pump station and Kilmore Tank 2028-2034 $11M

Long Term (2030-2060)

Broadford WTP Augmentation 2040 $14M



Figure 5.19: Future Supply-Demand Balance for the Sunday Creek System

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Sys

tem

Yie

ld (

ML/

a)

Year




AUGMENTED SUPPLY

SUPPLY DEMAND BALANCE : PROPOSED AUGMENTATION

Change to

operational rules

Pipeline connection

between Broadford and

Kilmore


March 2012

Page | 81

5.14 Yea River System - Yea


Water for the township of Yea is diverted from the Yea River by

pumping. The Bulk Entitlement is 438ML per year, with a

maximum diversion rate of 3.6ML/day depending on River flow.


Streamflow analysis has shown that flows in the Yea River have

historically been well above the minimum flow threshold at which

GVW can divert water. The yield of the system is defined as the

bulk entitlement diversion limit which is 438ML. For the Yea River

system there is no difference between a low yield, median climate

change or high yield scenario, as the Bulk Entitlement is the

limiting factor in all scenarios.

Bushfires in 2009 resulted in parts of the supply catchment

upstream of the GVW offtake being burnt. Analysis of the impacts

of the bushfires on stream hydrology (SKM, 2009) estimated a 5%

reduction in runoff in years of peak reduction.

Reductions in streamflows from bushfire impacts or climate

change would need to be in the order of 20%-30% for supply

reliability to be at risk in the short to medium term.

The supply-demand balance for the Yea system is shown in Figure

5.20. Note that supply scenarios are represented by a single line

(baseline – median cc), as the Bulk Entitlement is the limiting

factor for system yield.

Figure 5.20: Supply-Demand Balance for the Yea System

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Sys

tem

Yie

ld (

ML/a

)

Year


BASELINE DEMAND

HIGH DEMAND

LOW DEMAND



March 2012

Page | 82









Given that there is currently no shortfall in supply at Yea, non

revenue water reduction should only be undertaken if it is


5.14.3 Action Plan for the Yea System

The action plan for the Yea River system is shown in Table 5-22.

Table 5-22: Summary of Actions for the Yea River System


Cost


Monitoring of streamflow and demand for departures from the

baseline forecasts and for progressive impacts from bushfires. Ongoing


economically justified implement program to reduce losses

2012 -

2018 $5,000


No specific actions

Long Term (2030-2060)

No specific actions


March 2012

Page | 83

6. ALTERNATIVE LEVEL OF SERVICE ASSESSMENT

6.1 Stage 3 Water Restrictions as Minimum Standard

A scenario involving the adoption of Stage 3 water restrictions as the

minimum standard was modelled for each water supply system. This

scenario was created based on feedback received from the WSDS Steering

Committee.

The outcomes of this scenario were as follows:

Stage 3 water restrictions could currently be adopted as the minimum

standard for the Brewery Creek, Goulburn, Katunga, Longwood, Seven

Creeks (Strathbogie), Steavenson River and Yea River systems with

no impacts in the short to medium term;

Stage 3 water restrictions could currently be adopted as the minimum

standard for the River Murray and Sunday Creeks systems provided

that transfers are made from the Goulburn system;

Stage 3 water restrictions as the minimum standard currently cannot

be achieved for the Delatite River (Mansfield) and Seven Creeks

(Euroa and Violet Town) systems. Future supply side augmentations

would need to be brought forward to achieve this change to the

minimum standard;

Stage 3 water restrictions as the minimum standard currently cannot

be achieved for the Mollisons Creek system without increased

volumes of water cartage or implementing a future supply side

augmentation;

Stage 3 water restrictions as the minimum standard will require

additional water cartage for the Upper Delatite River system in dry

years.

The adoption of Stage 3 water restrictions as the minimum standard would

currently result in the need to bring forward supply side augmentations or

increase water cartage in dry years for a small number of systems.

Further community consultation should be undertaken on this alternative

service level as part of Water Plan 3 consultation.

6.2 Unrestricted Supply to Critical Public Assets

A scenario involving the adoption of unrestricted supply to critical public

assets was modelled for each water supply system. This scenario was

created based on feedback received from the WSDS Steering Committee.


March 2012

Page | 84

The outcomes of this scenario were as follows:

Unrestricted supply to critical public assets can currently be achieved

for the Brewery Creek, Goulburn, Katunga, Longwood, Seven Creeks

(Strathbogie), Steavenson River and Yea River systems without any

impact on levels of service in the short to medium term;

Unrestricted supply to the River Murray and Sunday Creek systems

can currently be achieved provided that transfers are made in dry

years from the Goulburn system;

Unrestricted supply to critical public assets currently for the Delatite

River (Mansfield) and Seven Creeks (Euroa and Violet Town) systems

will potentially prolong periods of restrictions without supply side

augmentations being brought forward;

There is minimal supply to public assets in the Upper Delatite River

and Mollisons Creek systems and unrestricted supply to critical public

assets is unlikely to impact on service levels.

The adoption of unrestricted supply to critical public assets would

potentially prolong periods of restrictions for two systems.

Further community consultation should be undertaken on this alternative

service level as part of Water Plan 3 consultation.

7. WATER SECURITY OUTLOOK

A water security outlook for each water supply system has been prepared to inform

the future review and updating of the action plans developed in the WSDS. The

water security outlook for each water supply system is located in Appendix 3.

The water security outlook and action plans will be reviewed and updated on a

regular basis and will be submitted as part of the Corporate Plan half-yearly

performance report during the five-year implementation period of the WSDS.

In addition to the development of the water security outlook for each water supply

system, Drought Response Plans (DRP’s) for each water supply system are currently

being updated. It is expected that an updated DRP for each water supply system will

be submitted to DSE in May 2012.


March 2012

Page | 85

8. RECOMMENDATIONS

Recommendations have been developed to undertake actions to improve the

supply-demand balance based on three separate timeframes (short term, medium

term, long term).

The short term period covers the remainder of the Water Plan 2 period and the

Water Plan 3 period. The medium and long term recommendations have the

flexibility to be brought forward or deferred depending on the demand and supply

scenarios which eventuate in future.

The following recommendations are made as a result of the GVW Water Supply

Demand Strategy 2011 – 2060:


Non revenue water losses should be verified for a number of systems and

programs implemented to reduce losses if economically justified (benefits

outweigh costs);

Assess opportunities from the Alternative Water Atlas;

Implement demand management initiatives if they are economically justified

(benefits outweigh costs);

Continue existing streamflow monitoring programs to reduce uncertainty in

water resource modelling;

Monitor demands at Woods Point following the installation of customer

metering;

Recognise the need to transfer entitlement from the Goulburn system to

mitigate shortfalls in other towns in future planning;

Adopt water cartage as an infrequent (expected 1 in 20 years for short

durations) measure to supplement supply for the Upper Delatite Diver system

if streamflows fall below diversion limits;

Transfer of groundwater entitlement from Strathmerton to Katunga to protect

against low allocation years;

Adopt water cartage as a measure to supplement supply for the Mollisons

Creek (Pyalong) system in dry years;

Implement dam safety works at Longwood to return Nine Mile Creek Reservoir

to full design capacity of 27ML;

Recycle Water Treatment Plant sludge supernatant water at Euroa;

Construct a new 300ML off stream storage and a permanent pump station on

Seven Creeks for the Seven Creeks (Euroa and Violet Town) system;


March 2012

Page | 86

Construct pre treatment works at the Broadford Water Treatment Plant to

provide capacity for increased usage of Goulburn River water;

Connection of the drought contingency pump station which transfers Goulburn River

water from Broadford to Sunday Creek Reservoir to a permanent power supply;

Purchase land for a future tank site at Kilmore;

Review the feasibility of an integrated water management option for Kilmore

as part of the next update of the WSDS;

Undertake additional community consultation on adopting Stage 3 water

restrictions and unrestricted supply to critical public assets as alternative

service standards. This should be undertaken as part of the Water Plan 3

consultation.


Construction of a pipeline from Tooborac to Pyalong to supplement supply for

the Mollisons Creek system;

Construction of an additional 20ML off stream storage for the Mollisons Creek

system;

Reconstruct Abbinga Reservoir at Euroa and increase capacity to 700ML;

Construction of an interconnection pipeline between Broadford and Kilmore.

Review strategy for water cartage at Upper Delatite during low flow periods.

Long Term (2030-2060)

Increase raw water diversion pipeline capacity and construct additional off

stream storage for the Delatite River (Mansfield) system;

Consider purchasing additional entitlement from the Goulburn system to

maintain a desirable buffer to protect against risk and uncertainty;

Consider purchasing additional entitlement from the Murray system to reduce

the reliance on annual transfers from Goulburn system bulk entitlements.


March 2012

Page | 87

9. REFERENCES

DSE, (2011a) Guidelines for the Development of a Water Supply Demand Strategy,

August 2011

DSE, (2011b) Draft Generic Statement of Obligations, August 2011

GHD, (2011a) Water Supply Demand Strategy 2011-2060 Water Resources

Modelling PART A Update of System REALM Models and Hydrologic Datasets,

October 2011

GHD, (2011b) Water Supply Demand Strategy 2011-2060 Water Resource

Modelling PART B Baseline Yield and Reliability Scenario Modelling, October 2011

GHD, (2011c) Report for Water Supply Demand Strategy 2011-2060 Supply and

Demand Options Assessment, October 2011

GHD, (2011d) Kilmore Recycled Water Option Memorandum, December 2011

SKM (2009a) Goulburn Valley Water Drought Response Plan Update, Water

Resource Modelling, Final, July 2009

SKM (2009b) Goulburn Valley Water Drought Response Plan Update Preliminary

Analysis of 2009 Bushfire Impacts, Final, July 2009


March 2012

Page | 88


March 2012

Page | 89

APPENDIX 1 –

COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT PLAN


March 2012

Page | 90


March 2012

Page | 91

COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT PLAN FOR THE

WATER SUPPLY DEMAND STRATEGY

June 2011


March 2012

Page | 92

1.0 Background

Goulburn Valley Water (GVW) prepared a fifty year water supply and demand

strategy (WSDS) in 2006. The strategy was titled GVW2055 – A Sustainable Urban

Water Future.

The WSDS outlines predicted water supply availability and water demand for a fifty

year period, identifies any imbalances between supply and demand and identifies

options to address future imbalances between supply and demand.

An updated WSDS is to be prepared by the end of November 2011. GVW will be

seeking community involvement in the development of the WSDS update.

A community engagement plan has been developed to outline how the community

will be involved in the WSDS update and the actions that are required to undertake

the engagement.

2.0 Objectives

The objectives of the community engagement plan are to:

Provide community input to key questions to be addressed in the WSDS

update.

Involve a range of community stakeholders in the development of the WSDS

update.

Identify the level of engagement that will be achieved for different aspects of

the WSDS update.

Outline an engagement plan which will identify actions and timeframes to

deliver the engagement.

Meet the community engagement obligations outlined in the DSE guidelines

for the WSDS update. A copy of the DSE guidelines for community

engagement for the WSDS update are included as Attachment 1 to this plan.


March 2012

Page | 93

3.0 Key Stakeholders

The key stakeholder groups to be engaged for the WSDS update are as follows:

Water Users – This stakeholder group includes both residential and

non residential customers

Local Government

Indigenous Community

Others – For GVW other key stakeholders include Goulburn-Murray Water,

Goulburn Broken Catchment Management Authority and the Department of

Sustainability and Environment.

The proposed engagement with each stakeholder group is outlined in the following

table.

Key Stakeholder Engagement approach Engagement Method Engagement

Level

Water Users Residential and non-residential

customers will be engaged on key

questions through the Corporate

Community Reference Committee

(CCRC).

CCRC Meetings Consult

Any specific communities that have an

identified imbalance between supply

and demand within the next ten years

will be engaged in the development of

options to address the imbalance

An imbalance timeframe of ten years

has been set on the basis that any

imbalances within the next ten years

will need to be addressed in detail in

the WSDS. Imbalances in the longer

term would only be addressed at a

concept level in the WSDS as they will

be addressed in detail in future five

yearly updates of the WSDS.

GVW will seek local community input

into the best method of engaging with

each community

Public workshops in

identified communities

Involve


March 2012

Page | 94

Key Stakeholder Engagement approach Engagement method Engagement

Level

Water Users The outcomes of the WSDS update will

be presented to the public for each

individual water supply

For the previous WSDS update this

approach was adopted. There was not

significant public interest in engaging

at a higher level than inform as an

imbalance in supply and demand in

most water supply systems is not

expected in the short term.

Public Open Days

Fact Sheets

Inform

The draft WSDS will be advertised for

public comment

Public Advertisement

GVW Website

Presentation to

Community Groups

Consult

Local Government Each local government organisation

will be briefed on the growth forecasts

used for the WSDS update and the

process for the update.

The opportunity will be given for local

government to provide feedback on

any aspects of the WSDS.

Meetings Involve

Each local government organisation

within the GVW Region will be invited

to provide a representative for a

steering committee that will provide

input to the WSDS update

Steering Committee

meetings

Involve

Local government organisations will be

sent a copy of the draft WSDS for

comment

Mail / E-mail Consult

Indigenous

Community

A representative of the indigenous

community is currently a member of

the CCRC

CCRC Meetings Consult

Others Key stakeholders such as Goulburn-

Murray Water, Goulburn Broken

Catchment Management Authority and

the Department of Sustainability and

Environment will be invited to form

part of the WSDS Steering Committee

Steering Committee

Meetings

Involve


March 2012

Page | 95

The engagement levels identified in the table above can be broadly defined as

follows.

Inform – to give the community knowledge of the project or issue;

Consult – to seek an opinion/feedback from the community;

Involve – to include the community in certain aspects of the decision making

process.

4.0 Key Engagement Questions

A number of key questions will need to be addressed as part of the community

engagement process. The key questions are outlined in the following table.

Key Question Stakeholders to be

engaged

Proposed engagement Engagement

Level

Level of Service

Targets

CCRC and Steering

Committee

Proposed level of service targets to be

presented to the CCRC and Steering

Committee for feedback.

The existing common level of service

target for all communities is proposed

to be retained.

Consult

Individual

communities

For communities that have an


and demand within the next ten years,

varying the minimum service level may

be an option to consider.

Involve

Minimum Service

Level

CCRC and Steering

Committee

Proposed minimum service level target

to be presented to the CCRC and

Steering Committee for feedback.

The existing common minimum service

level target for all communities is

proposed to be retained.

Consult

Individual

communities




varying the minimum service level may

be an option to consider.

Involve


March 2012

Page | 96

Key Question Stakeholders to be

engaged

Proposed engagement Engagement

Level

Planning

Assumptions and

level of risk

CCRC and Steering

Committee

Supply and demand balances for a

range of scenarios will be presented to

the CCRC and Steering Committee for

feedback.

The CCRC will be given the opportunity

to provide feedback to GVW on the

planning assumptions and level of risk

presented by the scenarios

Consult

Individual

communities



and demand within the next 10 years,

consultation on planning assumptions

and level of risk will form part of the

public workshops.

Involve

Initiatives to

address future

imbalances in

supply and

demand

CCRC and Steering

Committee

The initiatives that GVW will consider

to address future imbalances in supply

and demand will be presented to a

CCRC meeting for feedback.

Consult

Individual

communities




the opportunity will be provided at

public workshops to identify initiatives

that GVW should consider to address

the imbalance.

Involve

Costs and benefits

of initiatives to

address

imbalances

Steering Committee The costs and benefits of initiatives to

address imbalances will be presented

to the steering committee for feedback

in the draft WSDS.

Consult

Individual

communities




costs and benefits of initiatives to

address imbalances will be presented

for feedback in the draft WSDS.

Involve

Level of

Engagement

CCRC Proposed levels of engagement (draft

engagement plan) to be presented to

a CCRC meeting for feedback

Consult

Stakeholders to

be Consulted

CCRC CCRC to provide feedback on any

other stakeholder group that may

require specific engagement.

Consult


March 2012

Page | 97

5.0 Engagement Measures

The success of this community engagement plan will be measured based on:

Feedback on key engagement questions being successfully obtained at CCRC

meetings.

Public attendance at open days.

Feedback forms completed by the public.

Attendance of steering committee members at meetings.

Public comments on the draft WSDS.

6.0 Engagement Plan

The actions required to undertake the WSDS community engagement are outlined

in the following table.

Date Action Comments

June 2011 CCRC Meeting Feedback to be sought from the CCRC on

level of service targets and minimum service

level.

Draft community engagement plan to be

presented to the CCRC for comment

June 2011 Letters to be sent to Local

Government organisations, G-

MW, GBCMA and DSE to seek

representatives for the Steering

Group

June 2011 Meetings to be held with local

government organisations to

brief them on growth forecasts

and the WSDS process

July 2011 Steering Committee Meeting Meeting focus is likely to be demand

forecasts and water resource model updates.

August 2011 Steering Committee Meeting Meeting focus is likely to be predicted supply

demand balance for each water supply.

August 2011 Communities with a supply and

demand imbalance within the

next ten years are to be

identified

August 2011 Local government is to be

consulted on the best method

for engaging individual

communities with a supply and

demand imbalance


March 2012

Page | 98

Date Action Comments

August 2011 CCRC Meeting Feedback to be sought from the CCRC on

planning assumptions and level of risk.

September

2011

Steering Committee Meeting Meeting focus is likely to be planning

assumptions and level of risk.

October 2011 Steering Committee Meeting Meeting focus is likely to be on initiatives to

address supply and demand imbalances

November 2011 Feedback on initiatives to

address supply-demand

imbalances to be sought at

public open days

Public open days are likely to be required for:

Broadford and Kilmore

Euroa and Violet Town

Pyalong

Mansfield

November 2011 Fact sheets to be developed for

each water supply

Fact sheets to be available at public open

days and on the GVW website.

Similar fact sheets were produced for the

previous WSDS.

December 2011 Steering Committee Meeting Meeting focus is likely to be on the Draft

WSDS

December 2011 Draft WSDS to be issued to DSE.

Draft WSDS update to be

publically advertised and placed

on GVW website

Draft WSDS to be sent to local

government organisations and

any other stakeholders

identified through the

community engagement

process.

December 2011

– February 2012

Presentation of draft WSDS to

interested community groups for

feedback

GVW to contact community groups directly to

offer presentations

February 2012 CCRC Meeting Proposed final WSDS is to be presented to the

CCRC for feedback

March 2012 Final Water Plan placed on GVW

website

Final WSDS to consider feedback received on

the Draft WSDS from any stakeholders


March 2012

Page | 99

Attachment 1

DSE Guidelines for Community Engagement for the WSDS


March 2012

Page | 100


March 2012

Page | 101


March 2012

Page | 102


March 2012

Page | 103

APPENDIX 2 –

ALTERNATIVE WATER ATLAS


March 2012

Page | 104


March 2012

Page | 105

APPENDIX 3 –

WATER SECURITY OUTLOOKS


March 2012

Page | 106


March 2012

Page | 107

Water Security Outlook - November 2011 Brewery Creek (Woods Point) System

Streamflow Analysis (July 2011-June 2012) Monitoring Areas of Uncertainty

Water Consumption

Forecast Assumptions Non Revenue Water

Current Year The year to date in rainfall and streamflow

Dry Conditions The streamflow and rainfall from 2006/07

Seasonal Outlook

WSDS Action Plan

Overview of System Status Actions Timing

6 month Outlook Short Term (2012-2018)

Monitor demand levels fol lowing the insta l lation of customer metering 2012 - 2018

Veri fy dis tribution system non-revenue losses and i f rea l and economica l ly justi fied implement programs to reduce losses . 2012 -2018


12 Month Outlook No speci fic actions

Long Term (2030-2060)

No speci fic actions

2 Year Outlook

La Niña conditions strengthened across the tropical Pacific Basin during November and

is likely to peak in the next month, lasting until the end of summer. La Niña periods are usually, but not always, associated with above normal rainfall. There is a 40% to 45% chance that above average rainfall will be experienced in the next 6 months (right).

References:http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/rain.seaus.shtml http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/http://www.bom.gov.au/water/ssf/index.shtml#map=vic http://www.bom.gov.au/water/ssf/#map=vic

The Streamflow monitoring (Goulburn River near the Woods Point offtake) indicates that streamflow is well above 2006/07 levels and demands

will be met over the coming summer months with La Nina still expected to bring above average rainfall in early 2012.

1

10

100

1000

10000

06/11 07/11 09/11 11/11 12/11 02/12 04/12 05/12 07/12 08/12

Dai

ly S

tre

amfl

ow

(ML)

Streamflow Monitoring

Current Yr Streamflow

2006/07 Streamflow

20.9%

35.8%

43.3%

Given the above average rainfall and La Nina conditions strengthening this summer and into the next year, currently there is no indication that

restrictions will need to be implemented for the next 12 months if rainfall and streamflow continue to be relatively high.

Demand at Woods Point has varied considerably during

recent years. Customer metering is to be installed during 2012 which will enable improved quantification of non revenue water.

0

500

1000

1500

06/11 07/11 09/11 11/11 12/11 02/12 04/12 05/12 07/12 08/12

Cu

mu

lati

ve R

ain

fall

(mm

)

Rainfall Monitoring

Current Yr Cumulative Rainfall

2006/07 Cumulative Rainfall

The BoM streamflow forecast suggests that in the next 3 months there is a 43.3% chance that there will be low flow (orange region on the "Streamflow Monitoring"

chart), 35.8% of near median flow (blue region) and 20.9% of high flow (green region). This analysis is based Goulburn River streamflows in close poximity to Woods Point.

With the end of La Nina coming in the next 12 months there is a good chance that rainfall and streamflow will reduce. By how much is extremely hard to predict and therefore the Bureau's seasonal outlooks need to be monitored.

0102030405060708090100

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2005/06 2007/08 2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/16 2017/18 2019/20

Nu

mb

er

of

Co

nn

ect

ion

s

An

nu

al D

em

and

(M

L)

Total Demand vs Forecast

Historic Demand Baseline Demand High Demand

Low Demand Number of Connections

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13

No

n R

eve

nu

e W

ate

r

Co

nsu

mp

tio

n (

ML/

yr)

Non Revenue Water

Raw Water Consumption Estimated customer consumption Non Revenue Water %

Non revenue water has historically been estimated as there are currently no customer meters. Customer metering is to be installed during 2012 which will enable improved quantification of non revenue water.


March 2012

Page | 108

Water Security Outlook - November 2011 Delatite River (Mansfield) System

Storage Forecast (November 2011 - November 2013) Monitoring Areas of Uncertainty

Water Consumption

Forecast Assumptions

Average Conditions: Average inflows (2000-2002), average demand (662 ML/a)

Dry Conditions: Repeat of 2006-2008, dry year annual demand (698 ML/a)

Seasonal Outlook

WSDS Action Plan

Actions TimingShort Term (2012-2018)

Verify distribution system non-revenue losses and if real and economically justified implement program to reduce losses 2012-2018

Overview of System Status Medium Term (2018-2030)

6 month Outlook No specific actions

Long Term (2030-2060)

Construct pipeline booster pump station 2033

Design and construct replacement pipeline and pump station 2039

12 Month Outlook Design and construct 200 ML storage 2039

Increase Delatite River Weir daily extraction limit to 7.5 ML/d 2039

Design and construct 200 ML storage expansion 2053

2 Year Outlook

La Niña conditions strengthened across the tropical Pacific Basin during November. Climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest the La Niña is likely to peak during the

next month and last at least until the end of summer. La Niña periods are usually, but not always, associated with above normal rainfall during the second half of the year

and summer across large parts of Australia, particularly the eastern and northern regions.

There is a 40% to 45% chance that above average rainfall will be experienced in the

next 6 months, therefore the average conditions trace is more likely to be experienced.

References:http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/rain.seaus.shtmlhttp://www.bom.gov.au/water/ssf/index.shtml#map=vichttp://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

With average or above rainfall expected throughout Summer 2011/12, demand is expected to remain around the long term average, and it is

expected that storage levels will remain above restriction levels.


water restrictions will need to be implemented within the next 12 months.

The 2010/2011 demand of

456ML was at the lower end of predicted annual demands. This can be attributed to the wet and

cool conditions for the year.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13

Sto

rage

Le

vel (

ML)

Two Year Water Outlook Average Conditions Trace

Dry Conditions Trace

Recorded Storage Level

Drought Response Trigger Level 1




1600

1700

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Nu

mb

er

of

Co

nn

ecti

on

s

An

nu

al D

em

and

(ML)




Based on continuation of average climate conditions, water restrictions would not be predicted within the next 2 years. A repeat of dry inflow

conditions from 2006-2008 would trigger water restrictions within 18 months.


March 2012

Page | 109

Water Security Outlook - November 2011 Upper Delatite River (Merrijig & Sawmill Settlement) System


Water Consumption




Seasonal Outlook

Overview of System Status WSDS Action Plan

6 Month Outlook Actions Timing

Veri fy dis tribution system non-revenue losses and i f rea l and economica l ly justi fied implement program to reduce losses .2012 - 2018

Water cartage during low flow periods . 2012 - 2018

Continued monitoring of s treamflows to reduce uncerta inty in model l ing of low River flows. 2012-2018


12 Month Outlook Review strategy for water cartage during low flow periods .

Long Term (2030-2060)

No speci fic actions .

2 Year Outlook




Climate and streamflow forecast indicates high likelihood of above average flow conditions will be achieved over the next 3 to 6 months. The risk

of flow falling below the passing flow thresholdfor diversions is considered to be low. The recession curve indicates that under a return to dry scenario, streamflows could fall below the diversion limit within a 4 month period.

1

10

100

1000

06/11 07/11 09/11 11/11 12/11 02/12 04/12 05/12 07/12 08/12Dai

ly S

tre

amfl

ow

(M

L)

Streamflow MonitoringCurrent Yr Streamflow

2006/07 Streamflow

Recession Curve

Passing Flow Threshold

21.1%

46.5%

32.5%

Given the above average rainfall and La Nina conditions strengthening this summer and into the next year, currently there is no indication


The reliability of the Delatite River Supply System is dependent on

streamflows remaining above the passing flow threshold for diversions.

Demand forecasts are well below the Bullk Entitlement limit of 235ML per year. Demand in recent years is tracking within the predicted band,

suggesting that assumptions associated with demand forecasts

have been made appropriately.

0

200

400

600

800

06/11 07/11 09/11 11/11 12/11 02/12 04/12 05/12 07/12 08/12

Cu

mu

lati

ve R

ain

fall

(mm

)

Rainfall Monitoring



The Bureau streamflow forecast suggests that in the next 3 months there is a 32.5% chance that there will be low flow (orange region on the "Streamflow Monitoring"

chart, 0-38 ML/day), 46.5% of near median flow (blue region, 38-122 ML/day) and 21.1% of high flow (green region, 122 ML/day and above). The Bureau analysis is based

on streamflows in the Delatite River at Tonga Bridge, which is downstream of the offtake for this system.

With the end of La Nina coming in the next 12 months there is a good chance that rainfall and streamflow will reduce. By how much is extremely hard to predict and therefore the Bureau's seasonal outlooks need to be monitored.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Nu

mb

er

of

Co

nn

ect

ion

s

An

nu

al D

em

and

(M

L)





March 2012

Page | 110

Water Security Outlook - November 2011 Regulated Goulburn System

Forecasts of Inlows and Use of Allocation Monitoring Areas of Uncertainty

Industrial Demands

Water Consumption/Connections

Available Water - 2011/12

\

Volumes Transferred to Murray/Broadford/Kilmore

Forecast Assumptions: Forecast 1 = Average demand (21,050 ML/a), 100% Allocation

Forecast 2 = High demand (24,207 ML/a), 100% Allocation

Forecast 3 =

Overview of System Status WSDS Action Plan

6 month Outlook Actions Timing


Recognise the reduction in enti tlement when substi tuting water to mitigate shortfa l l s in other towns. 2012

Monitor the implementation of carryover rules , and adjust GVW internal a l location process as the understanding of ri sks improves . 2012

Assess preferred opportunities for demand management and opportunities from the Alternative Water Atlas . 2012

12 Month Outlook Monitor consumption rates in new res identia l connections . 2012

Veri fy dis tribution system non-revenue losses and i f rea l and economica l ly justi fied implement program to reduce losses . 2012 - 2018



Long Term (2030-2060)

2 Year Outlook

High demand (24,207 ML/a), 100% Allocation,

Incl vol transfered to Murray and Broadford/Kilmore

Cons ider purchas ing additional enti tlement from the Regulated Goulburn System to mainta in a des i rable buffer to

protect aga inst future ri sk and uncerta inty.

Forecast Assumptions:The forecast for Eildon Inflows assumes that over the next 12 months the inflows into Eildon will be average or above meaning that the 99%ile flow is not approached and allocations can be expected to be 100%.

4800

4850

4900

4950

5000

An

nu

al In

du

stri

al D

em

and

(ML) Total Demand vs Forecast

Historic Industrial Demand Forecast Industrial Demand

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Nu

mb

er

of

Co

nn

ecti

on

s

An

nu

al D

em

and

(ML)




0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

Jul/11 Aug/11 Oct/11 Dec/11 Mar/12 May/12

All

oca

tio

n A

vaila

ble

(ML)

Allocation Outlook Drought Response Trigger Level 1




Forecast 1

Forecast 2

Forecast 3

Recorded Use inc. B/K and Murray Use

Recorded Use of Allocation

The 2010/2011 demand was significantly lower than expected due

to high rainfall and low summer temperatures.

Industrial demand is currently

assumed to remain consistent with recent averages.

The volume of Goulburn Allocation

transferred to other towns has decreased over the past two years due to full allocation on the Murray system and Sunday Creek Reservoir

filling.

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

Vo

lum

e T

ran

sfe

rre

d

(ML)

Murray System Broadford/Kilmore System

The next 6 months are secure for 100% water allocations. Inflows into Eildon will have to completely dry up in order for there to be any

prospect of reduced allocations.

The allocation is expected to be 100% if Lake Eildon levels continue to be well above 2008 and 2009 levels. Carry over is expected to be available for next water year.

*Dummy Recorded Use of Allocation

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

24

Mo

nth

Eild

on

In

flo

w T

ota

l (G

L)

24 Month Eildon Inflow Forecast

99th %ile 24 Month Inflow

Recorded 24 Month Inflows

Forecast 24 Month Inflow

2010 / 11 2011 / 12

The allocation is expected to be 100% with Lake Eildon inflow predicted to continue to be well above 2008 and 2009 levels.


March 2012

Page | 111

Water Security Outlook Katunga Groundwater System

Aquifer Level Analysis Monitoring Areas of Uncertainty

Water Consumption

Overall Demand vs Groundwater

Seasonal Outlook

5 Year Rolling Average

Overview of System Status

6 month Outlook

WSDS Action Plan



Veri fy dis tribution system non-revenue losses and i f rea l and economica l ly justi fied implement program to reduce losses . 2012 - 2018

Transfer of enti tlement from Strathmerton to protect aga inst low a l location years . 2012 - 2018

2 Year Outlook Medium Term (2018-2030)


Long Term (2030-2060)


The Katunga area has experienced significantly higher than average rainfall over the past 24 months. The rainfall from this period has enabled some level of recharge

already and in the short term more high rainfall weather is predicted.

La Niña conditions strengthened across the tropical Pacific Basin during November and December. Climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest the La Niña is likely to peak during the next month and last at least until the end of summer. La Niña generally but not always is associated with higher rainfall.

References:http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/rain.seaus.shtmlhttp://www.bom.gov.au/water/ssf/index.shtml#map=vichttp://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain

Higher rainfall in the past 3-6 months means that recharge will generally be significant in the next 6 months and aquifer recovery should

continue.

0

10

20

30

40

06/11 08/11 10/11 12/11 02/12 04/12 06/12

Gro

un

dw

ate

r D

ep

th

Be

low

Nat

ura

l Su

rfac

e

(m)

Groundwater Depth Monitoring

Current Year Groundwater Levels

2006/07 Groundwater Levels

Allocations for the next water year depend on recharge/recovery and 5 year rolling average. With a reduction in 5 year average in 2011 and recharge it is anticipated that the next water year will bring an allocation of 70%.

The last 2 years of wetter than average

conditions have brought down irrigation demand and in turn reduced the 5 year rolling average. Recent bore recovery and reductions in demand make larger

allocations going forward more likely.

The 2010/2011 demand of 36ML was

below the predicted range for demand. This can be attributed to the wet and cool conditions for the year.

0

100

200

300

400

06/11 08/11 10/11 12/11 02/12 04/12 06/12

Cu

mu

lati

ve R

ain

fall

(mm

)

Rainfall MonitoringCurrent Year Cumulative Rainfall


Groundwater systems recover and draw

down over long periods. The 1997-2009 drought had significant impacts on recharge amounts. Aquifer recovery has commenced over the 2008-2011 period.

Note that Annual Demand referred to in this graph represents total groundwater

usage in the Katunga area.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

350

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Gro

un

dw

ate

r D

ep

th

Be

low

Su

rfac

e (

m)

An

nu

al D

em

and

(M

L)

Groundwater Level vs System Demand

Historic Demand Katunga Groundwater Level

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

An

nu

al D

em

and

(M

L)

5 Year Rolling Average Demand

5 Year Rolling Average Demand

Allocations in future will depend on recharge/recovery and the 5 year rolling average. GVW currently has a large groundwater licence at Strathmerton which can be transferred to Katuunga if required in a low allocation year.

0

50

100

150

200

250

010203040506070

Nu

mb

er

of

Co

nn

ect

ion

s

An

nu

al D

em

and

(M

L)





March 2012

Page | 112

Water Security Outlook - November 2011 Mollisons Creek (Pyalong) System


Water Consumption


Average Conditions: Average inflows (2004-2006), average demand (41 ML/a) Water Quality


Seasonal Outlook

WSDS Action Plan

Actions Timing

Short Term (2012 -2018)

Water cartage during dry years . 2012 – 2018

Overview of System Status Consult community on water qual i ty and monitor sa l ini ty. 2012 – 2018

6 month Outlook Veri fy dis tribution system non-revenue losses and i f rea l and economica l ly justi fied implement program to reduce losses . 2012 - 2018

Implement demand management ini tiatives i f they are economica l ly justi fied. 2012 - 2018


Tooborac pipel ine and booster pump station. 2025

12 Month Outlook 20 ML offs tream storage. 2030

Long Term (2030-2060)

Pyalong WTP refurbishment. 2040

2 Year Outlook

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

De

c-0

9

Jan

-10

Feb

-10

Mar

-10

Ap

r-1

0

May

-10

Jun

-10

Jul-

10

Au

g-1

0

Sep

-10

Oct

-10

No

v-1

0

De

c-1

0

Jan

-11

Feb

-11

Mar

-11

Ap

r-1

1

May

-11

Jun

-11

Jul-

11

Au

g-1

1

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

No

v-1

1

Stre

amfl

ow

(ML/

mth

)

Ele

ctri

cal C

on

duct

ivit

y (u

S/cm

)

Average Electronic Conductivity vs Streamflow in Mollison Creek

Electrical Conductivity Mollison Creek Streamflow

La Niña conditions strengthened across the tropical Pacific Basin during November.

Climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest the La Niña is likely to peak during the next month and last at least until the end of summer. La Niña periods are usually, but not always, associated with above normal rainfall during the second half of the year and summer across large parts of Australia, particularly the eastern and northern

regions.

There is a 40% to 45% chance that above average rainfall will be experienced in the next 6 months, therefore the average conditions trace is more likely to be experienced.


With average or above rainfall expected throughout Summer 2011/12, demand is expected to remain around the long term average and it is

expected that storage levels will remain

Given the above average rainfall and La Nina conditions strengthening this summer and into the next year, currently there is no indication restrictions will need to be implemented for the next 12 months.

There is some uncertainty in regards to water quality in Mollison Creek,

particularly issues with high salinity. There is a clear relationship between

inflow and EC, with EC increasing when flow is low. The need for water quality improvement at Pyalong needs to be monitored.

The 2010/2011 demand of 27ML was

low due to high rainfall and low summer temperature.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14

Sto

rage

Le

vel (

ML)

Two Year Water OutlookAverage Conditions Trace







120130140150160170180190200210220

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Nu

mb

er

of

Co

nn

ecti

on

s

An

nu

al D

em

and

(ML)


Baseline Demand Historic Demand High Demand


Based on continuation of average climate conditions, water restrictions would not be predicted within the next 2 years. A repeat of dry inflow conditions from 2006-2008 would potentially trigger Stage 1 water restrictions within 15 months.


March 2012

Page | 113

Water Security Outlook - November 2011 Regulated Murray System

Allocation Forecast Monitoring Areas of Uncertainty

Industrial Demands

Water Consumption/Connections

Volumes Transferred from the Regulated Goulburn

Forecast Assumptions: Forecast 1 = High demand (5,531 ML/a), 100% Murray Allocation,

Forecast 2 = Average demand (5,121 ML/a), 100% Murray Allocation

Forecast 3 =


6 month Outlook WSDS Action Plan

Actions TimingShort Term (2012-2018)

Monitor changes in industrial use as it represents a large proportion of total demand. Ongoing

Assess preferred opportunities for demand management and opportunities from the Alternative Water Atlas. 2012

12 Month Outlook Verify distribution system non-revenue losses and if real and economically justified implement program. 2012 - 2018



Long Term (2030-2060)

2 Year Outlook

High demand (5,531 ML/a), 100% Murray Allocation, with 600 ML

transferred from the Goulburn System

Consider the purchase of additional entitlement from the Regulated Murray System to reduce the

reliance on annual transfers from Regulated Goulburn System bulk entitlements. 2040

2080

2090

2100

2110

2120

2130

2140

2005/06 2007/08 2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/16 2017/18 2019/20

An

nu

al In

du

stri

al D

em

and

(ML)


Historic Industrial Demand Forecast Industrial Demand

5,000

5,200

5,400

5,600

5,800

6,000

01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,000

Nu

mb

er

of

Co

nn

ecti

on

s

An

nu

al D

em

and

(ML)


Historic Demand Baseline Demand

High Demand Low Demand

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

01/07/11 31/08/11 31/10/11 31/12/11 01/03/12 01/05/12

All

oca

tio

n A

vaila

ble

(ML)

Allocation Outlook (excl. carryover volume) Drought Response Trigger Level 1Drought Response Trigger Level 2Drought Response Trigger Level 3Drought Response Trigger Level 4Forecast 1

Forecast 2

Forecast 3

Recorded Use of AllocationRecorded Use inc. Goulburn Transfer

The 2010/2011 demand was significantly lower than expected due to high rainfall

and low summer temperatures.

Industrial demand is currently

assumed to remain consistent with recent averages.

The volume of Goulburn

Allocation transferred to other

towns has decreased over the past two years due to full allocation on the Murray system.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

All

oca

tio

n t

ran

sfe

rre

d

(ML/

yr)

Goulburn Allocation Substitution

Sources:http://www.nvrm.net.au/outlooks.aspxhttp://g-mwater.com.au/water-resources/storages/murray/humedam

The Murray Allocation is hard to predict in the longer term although with the ability to substitute with the Goulburn allocation there is less

uncertainty about being able to meet demands.

The allocation is expected to be 100% with Hume Reservoir inflows predicted to continue to be well above 2008 and 2009 levels.

The high Hume storage level and Seasonal Allocation signals that the High reliability water shares will get 100% allocation m eaning that the

Murray System receives the full 5593 ML this water year. Given the allocation used thus far it is almost a certainty that the Murray will be able to

supply its demands without substitution from the Goulburn Allocation.


March 2012

Page | 114

Water Security Outlook - November 2011 Nine Mile Creek (Longwood) System


System Inflows

Water Consumption



Dry Conditions: Repeat of 2006-2008, maximum annual demand (62 ML/a)

Seasonal Outlook

Non Revenue Water


6 month Outlook

WSDS Action Plan

Actions Timing

Short Term (2012 - 2018)

12 Month Outlook Veri fy dis tribution system non-revenue losses and i f rea l and economica l ly justi fied implement programs to reduce losses . 2012 - 2018

Dam safety works to rebui ld dam to provide origina l des ign capaci ty of 27 ML. 2013

Continued gauging of s torage inflows to reduce uncerta inty in current yield estimates . 2012 - 2018


2 Year Outlook No speci fic actions .

Long Term (2030-2060)




regions.



With average or above rainfall expected throughout Summer 2011/12, demand is expected to remain around the long term average and it is

expected that storage levels will remain well above restriction levels.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 No

n R

eve

nu

e W

ate

r (%

)

Co

nsu

mp

tio

n (

ML/

yr)

Non Revenue Water

Raw Water Consumption Metered consumption Percentage Non Revenue

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Nov-09 May-10 Nov-10

Rai

nfa

ll (m

m/m

th)

Stre

amfl

ow

(ML/

mth

)

Streamflow: Modelled v Actual

Modelled Streamflow (ML/mth) Actual Streamflow (ML/mth) Rainfall (mm)

0

5

10

15

20

25

Sep-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13

Sto

rage

Le

vel (

ML)

Two Year Water Outlook Drought Response Trigger Level 1




Average Condtions Trace



Based on continuation of average climate conditions, water restrictions would not be predicted within the next 2 years. A repeat of dry inflow conditions from 2006-2008 would trigger water restrictions within 1 year.

Given the above average rainfall and La Nina conditions strengthening this summer and into the next year, currently there is no indication restrictions will need to be implemented for the next 12 months.

The 2010/2011 demand of 41ML

was below the lower band of predicted annual demands. This can be attributed to the wet and

cool conditions for the year. Non

revenue water reduction has resulted in a reduction in total

demand in recent years.

The streamflow used in the

Outlook predition model. Its clear that both inflows track the rainfall well although the model is quite conservative, meaning that

confidence can be dirived from the output.

The plot shows that non revenuewater is remaining relatively

constant and is currently not significant.

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

0

20

40

60

80

100

2005/06 2007/08 2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/16 2017/18 2019/20

Nu

mb

er

of

Co

nn

ect

ion

s

An

nu

al D

em

and

(M

L)


Historic Demand Baseline Demand High Demand Low Demand Number of Connections


March 2012

Page | 115

Water Security Outlook - November 2011 Seven Creeks (Euroa & Violet Town) Water Supply System


Water Consumption




Seasonal Outlook

WSDS Action Plan



Recycle WTP s ludge supernatant 2014

Promote water efficiency 2013 - 2018

Veri fy dis tribution system non-revenue losses and i f rea l and economica l ly justi fied implement program to reduce losses 2013 -2018

12 Month Outlook Purchase land for future 300ML storage 2016

Construct new 300 ML s torage and interconnecting pipework 2018

Construct new offtake pump station on Seven Creeks (10 ML/d) 2018


2 Year Outlook Replace 3 km of Gooram pipel ine (3 km x DN300) 2020

Repair Abbinga and increase to 700 ML 2030

Long Term (2030-2060)




regions.



With average or above rainfall expected throughout Summer 2011/12, demand is expected to remain around the long term average, it is

expected that storage levels will remain well above restriction levels.

Based on continuation of average climate conditions, water restrictions would not be predicted within the next 2 years. A repeat of dry inflow conditions from 2006-2008 would trigger water restrictions within 1 year.

The 2010/11 recordeddemand for Euroa was below the low demand prediction.

The 2011/12 demand should be monitored so that this can be attributed to either the fact that 2010/11 was a wet

and cool year or if behaviour changes in peoples water use have made impacts on demand.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Sep-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13

Sto

rage

Le

vel (

ML)








1800

1900

2000

2100

2200

2300

2400

2500

0100200300400500600700800900

2005/06 2007/08 2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/16 2017/18 2019/20 Nu

mb

er

of

Co

nn

ect

ion

s

An

nu

al D

em

and

(M

L)




Given the above average rainfall and La Nina conditions strengthening this summer and into the next year, currently there's no indication restrictions will need to be implemented for the next 12 months.


March 2012

Page | 116

Water Security Outlook - November 2011 Seven Creeks (Strathbogie) System


Water Consumption




Seasonal Outlook

WSDS Action Plan



Veri fy dis tribution system non-revenue losses and i f rea l and economica l ly justi fied implement program to reduce losses2012 - 2018

Water carting in dry years i f required


12 Month Outlook No speci fic actions

Long Term (2030-2060)


2 Year Outlook




The Streamflow monitoring (Seven Creeks downstream of Strathbogie) indicates that streamflow is well above 2006/07 levels and dem ands will

be met over the coming summer months with La Nina still expected to bring above average rainfall in early 2012.

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1000

06/11 07/11 09/11 11/11 12/11 02/12 04/12 05/12 07/12 08/12

Dai

ly S

tre

amfl

ow

(ML)



2006/07 Streamflow

46.2%

43.0%

10.9%



Water consumption in recent years

has been at the low end of the forecast range.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

06/11 07/11 09/11 11/11 12/11 02/12 04/12 05/12 07/12 08/12

Cu

mu

lati

ve R

ain

fall

(mm

) Rainfall Monitoring



The BoM streamflow forecast suggests that in the next 3 months there is a 10.9% chance that there will be low flow (orange region on the "Streamflow Monitoring"

chart), 43.0% of near median flow (blue region) and 46.2% of high flow (green region). This analysis is based on inflows to Goulburn Weir, in close proximity to the

Strathbogie. This should mean sufficient flows to meet demand in over the next 3 months.

With the end of La Nina coming in the next 12 months there is a good chance that rainfall and streamflow will reduce. By how much is uncertain and therefore the Bureau's seasonal outlooks need to be monitored.

05101520253035404550

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2005/06 2007/08 2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/16 2017/18 2019/20

Nu

mb

er

of

Co

nn

ecti

on

s

An

nu

al D

em

and

(M

L)


Historic Demand Baseline DemandHigh Demand Low DemandNumber of Connections


March 2012

Page | 117

Water Security Outlook - November 2011 Steavenson River (Marysville & Buxton) System


Water Consumption

Bushfire Impact Analysis



Dry Conditions: Repeat of 2007-2009, maximum annual demand (170 ML/a)

Seasonal Outlook


6 month Outlook

WSDS Action Plan

Actions Timing

12 Month Outlook Short Term (2012-2018)

Assess opportunities from the Alternative Water Atlas . 2012

Veri fy dis tribution system non-revenue losses and implement program to reduce losses i f economica l ly justi fied. 2012 - 2018

Continued gauging of s treamflow and assessment to monitor the progress ive impacts from bushfi res . 2012 - 2018


Monitor and respond to growth and long term impact of bushfi res on s treamflow.

Long Term (2030-2060)

Monitor and respond to growth and long term impact of bushfi res on s treamflow.



regions.

There is a 45% to 50% chance that above average rainfall will be experienced in the GVW region in the next 6 months, therefore the average conditions trace is more likely to be experienced.


With average or above rainfall expected throughout Summer 2011/12, demand is expected to remain around the average, it is expected

that storage levels will remain well above restriction levels. It is most likely that the storage trace will follow that of the average conditions

Given the above average rainfall and La Nina conditions strengthening this summer and into the next year, currently there is no indication

that water restrictions will need to be implemented for the next 12 months.

The impact on streamflow from the recent bushfires in 2009 appears

quite minimal with rainfall resulting in expected levels of streamflow. This

is in contrast with 2010 which had close to the 90th %ile rainfall but much higher than the 90th %ile streamflow. The 2010 streamflow

result seems to suggest that inflow yield in the catchment has increased.

There is also the possibility that 2010 was a year with extreme rainfall with some flooding, the high streamflow could be independent of the bushfire event impacts. Data for the 2011/12 year will reduce the uncertainty regarding the bushfire impact.

Demand is considerably lower than

historic levels due to the reduced number of connections. Demand for 2011/12 is currently tracking similar to the forecast.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13

Sto

rage

Le

vel (

ML)








0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Rai

nfa

ll (m

m)

Cumulative Rainfall

10th %ile 90th %ile 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12

02,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,000


Stre

amfl

ow

(ML)

Cumulative Streamflow

10th %ile 90th %ile 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

050

100150200250300350400

2005/06 2007/08 2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/16 2017/18 2019/20

Nu

mb

er

of

Co

nn

ecti

on

s

An

nu

al D

em

and

(ML)




Demand is expected to increase as properties are rebuilt in the Marysville and Buxton townships. Increasing demand is however not expected to result in the need for water restrictions within the next two years.


March 2012

Page | 118

Water Security Outlook - November 2011 Sunday Creek (Broadford & Kilmore) System


Water Consumption

Bushfire Impact Analysis



Dry Conditions: Repeat of 2007-2009 inflows, maximum annual demand (1871.5 ML/a)

Seasonal Outlook

Use of Goulburn Allocation


6 month Outlook

12 Month Outlook

WSDS Action Plan

Actions Timing

Monitor demands Ongoing

Assess opportunities from the Alternative Water Atlas . 2012

2 Year Outlook Veri fy dis tribution system non-revenue losses and implement program to reduce losses i f economica l ly justi fied. 2012-2018

Continued gauging of s treamflow and assessment to monitor the progress ive impacts from bushfi res . Ongoing

Review the feas ibi l i ty of an integrated water management option as part of the next WSDS update 2016

Broadford WTP Pre-Treatment Works (timing wi l l depend on actual peak day demand experienced).

Connection of the Drought Contingency pump station to a permanent power supply.

Purchase land for a future tank s i te at Ki lmore 2013 - 2018


Broadford-Ki lmore Interconnection pipel ine, pump station and Ki lmore Tank 2028-2034

Long Term (2030-2060)

Broadford WTP Augmentation 2040

2013-2020

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000


Stre

amfl

ow (M

L)


10th %ile 90th %ile 2009/10 2010/11 2010/11

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000


Rai

nfal

l (m

m)

Cumulative Rainfall

10th %ile 90th %ile 2009/10 2010/11 2011/2012

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500

7000

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2005/06 2007/08 2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/16 2017/18 2019/20

Num

ber

of C

onne

ctio

ns

Ann

ual D

eman

d (M

L)




La Niña conditions strengthened across the tropical Pacific Basin during November. Climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest the La Niña is likely to peak during the

next month and last at least until the end of summer. La Niña periods are usually, but not always, associated with above normal rainfall during the second half of the year and summer across large parts of Australia, particularly the eastern and northern

regions.

There is a 45% to 50% chance that above average rainfall will be experienced in the GVW region in the next 6 months, therefore the average conditions trace is most likely.


With average or above rainfall expected throughout Summer 2011/12, demand is expected to remain around the long term average, it is expected that storage levels will remain well above restriction levels. It is most likely that the storage trace will follow that of the average

conditions in the next 6 months. Operating Mode 1 represents supply to Broadford & Kilmore from Sunday Creek Reservoir.

The 12 month outlook for the Regulated Goulburn system is for 100% allocation. Operating Mode 2 may be triggered within the next 12

months under an average inflows scenario and Operating Mode 3 may be triggered under a dry inflow scenario. Operating Mode 2 will involve transfer of Regulated Goulburn system water to supply Broadford. Operating Mode 3 will involve transfer of Regulated Goulburn system water to both Broadford and Kilmore.

The analysis shows that there is the possibility of high impact due to bushfire given that the rainfall and streamflow in 2010/11 show very stark differences. The 2010/11 rainfall is about at the

1970-2008 90th %ile, making it a relatively high rainfall year. It is expected that the streamflow would therefore be close to the 90th %ile also. This is not the case however, there is

much more streamflow than expected. The high streamflow could be the result of the bushfire impacted catchment.Further monitoring and assessment is warranted.

Historic demand shown is treated water demand. The forecast shown is raw water demand and assumes some bounce back in demand compared to the past 5 years. Future updates to this

outlook will compare historic raw water demand to the forecast.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Jan-14

Sto

rage

Le

vel (

ML)




Goulburn Supply Mode 2 Trigger

Goulburn Supply Mode 3 Trigger

Note: Drought Response Triggers are now aligned with the Regulated Goulburn System

Operating Mode 1

Operating Mode 2

Operating Mode 3

Refer to Drought Response Manual for information on Goulburn Supply operating modes.

0100200

300400500

600700800

2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

Vo

lum

e (M

L)

Broadford/Kilmore System

The transfer of Goulburn allocation has decreased in the past two years as the

Sunday Creek Reservoir has filled.

The 2 year outlook for the Regulated Goulburn system is for 100% allocation. Restrictions are unlikely within the next 2 years given that

transfers will be undertaken from the Regulated Goulburn system if Operating Mode 2 or 3 occur.


March 2012

Page | 119

Water Security Outlook - November 2011 Yea River (Yea) System

Streamflow Analysis (July 2011 - June 2012) Monitoring Areas of Uncertainty

Water Consumption


Current Year The year to date in rainfall and streamflow Bushfire Impacts on the Catchment


Seasonal Outlook

Seasonal Outlook


6 month Outlook

WSDS Action Plan



Monitoring of s treamflow and demand for departures from the basel ine forecasts and for progress ive impacts from bushfi res . Ongoing

Veri fy dis tribution system non-revenue losses and i f rea l and economica l ly justi fied implement program to reduce losses 2012 - 2018



Long Term (2030-2060)



is likely to peak in the next month, lasting until the end of summer. La Niña periods are

usually, but not always, associated with above normal rainfall. There is a 40% to 45% chance that above average rainfall will be experienced in the next 6 months (right).

References:http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/rain.seaus.shtmlhttp://www.bom.gov.au/water/ssf/index.shtml#map=vichttp://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/http://www.bom.gov.au/water/ssf/#map=vic

The Streamflow forecast and Streamflow monitoring both indicate that streamflow is well above 2006/07 levels and demands shoud be able to bemet over the coming summer months with La Nina still expected to bring above average rainfall in early 2012.

1

10

100

1000

10000

06/11 07/11 09/11 11/11 12/11 02/12 04/12 05/12 07/12 08/12

Dai

ly S

tre

amfl

ow

(M

L)



2006/07 Streamflow

Recession Curve

30.2%

26.1%

43.7%

Streamflow forecast range of flow probability by BoM, refer to "Seasonal Outlook" below


restrictions will need to be implemented in the next 12 months.

Recent demand is tracking

within the forecast band.

0

200

400

600

800

06/11 07/11 09/11 11/11 12/11 02/12 04/12 05/12 07/12 08/12

Cu

mu

lati

ve R

ain

fall

(mm

)

Rainfall Monitoring



0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000


Stre

amfl

ow

(ML)


10th %ile 90th %ile 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200


Rai

nfa

ll (m

m)

Cumulative Rainfall

10th %ile 90th %ile 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12

From the data so far it appears that the 2009/10

streamflow has been impacted by the bushfire

event. Streamflow was very low in 2009/10 despite reasonably high rainfall. This indicates higher vegetation

regrowth water uptake during 2009/10.

Interestingly 2010/11 had

high rainfall but the streamflow was also high,

The next few years will be able to give a clearer picture

as to how streamflow in the catchment has been impacted by the bushfire regrowth.

The Yea water supply system proved to be highly reliable in 2006/2007 and restrictions would not be expected in a return to dry scenario within

the next two years.

The Bureau streamflow forecast suggests that in the next 3 months there is a 30.2%

chance that there will be low flow (orange region on the "Streamflow Monitoring"

chart), 43.7% of near median flow (green region) and 26.1% of high flow (blue region). This analysis is based on inflows to Lake Eildon, upstream of Yea.

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2005/06 2007/08 2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/16 2017/18 2019/20

Nu

mb

er

of

Co

nn

ect

ion

s

An

nu

al D

em

and

(M

L)




GVW 2060 A Sustainable Urban Water Future · GVW 2060 A Sustainable Urban Water Future Water Supply...

Documents

Transcript of GVW 2060 A Sustainable Urban Water Future · GVW 2060 A Sustainable Urban Water Future Water Supply...