Get Out The Vote
The Leadership Institute GOTV
TRUE OR FALSE?
GOTV should be focused on getting as many voters out to the polls as possible.
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GOTV – Targeted Activity
Objective Get out YOUR vote! GOTV activities should be targeted to
supporters who you identified through micro targeting and voter identification efforts.
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GOTV – Targeted Activity
Low-propensity votersvs.
High-propensity voters
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GOTV – Targeted Activity
High-propensity
UnfavorableVoters
Unknownand Swing
Voters
High-propensity
FavorableVoters
Low-propensity Low-propensityHow to mobilize these voters
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GOTV – Targeted Activity
PartisanshipTurnout
Democrats Independent Republicans
AlwaysVote X Persuasion X??
Sometimes Vote X Persuasion GOTV
SeldomVote X X X
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GOTV – Building a Foundation
The Leadership Institute GOTV
In order to maximize GOTV EffortsYou MUST be intentional about
VOTER IDENTIFICATION
GOTV – Two Phases
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Phase One – AV/EVPhase Two – Election Day
GOTV – Phase One (AV/EV)
Know your rules. Know your dates Develop your AV/EV programs (online/offline) Execute AV/EV programs (online/offline)
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GOTV – Phase One (AV/EV)
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Not all votes are created equal
2012 Election: Analysis of AV/EV in Florida.
Obama Romney Obama RomneyHi-propensity voters 58% 71% 58% 76%
Lo-propensity voters 27% 22% 27% 21%
New Voters 15% 7% 15% 3%
Raw total 2.4m 2.1m 1.0m 653k
Florida Ohio
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GOTV – Phase Two
ELECTION DAY - Start several weeks in advance Volunteer-based mobilization to remind voters
of upcoming vote. Develop Precinct Workers for ED Develop “knock & drag” operations for ED Develop Campaign War Room for ED
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Door-to-Door. Phone calls. Direct mail. Robocalls. Literature drops.
Television ads. Radio ads. Online ads. Social media. Events.
GOTV – Mobilization Methods
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Mobilizing Inclusion: Transforming the
Electorate through Get-Out-the-Vote
Campaigns
Lisa Garcia BedollaMelissa R. Michelson
GOTV
The Leadership Institute GOTV
Get Out The Vote: How to Increase
Voter Turnout
Donald P. GreenAlan S. Gerber
GOTV
The Leadership Institute GOTV
Door-to-door
Door-to-door
Most effective GOTV method Effectiveness: 1 vote per 14 contacts. Estimate: 6 contacts per hour. Spillover effects for an entire household. Targeted – not every voting household.
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Door-to-door
Differences in canvassers Local canvassers are more effective than non-
local canvassers. Latino canvassers reach Latino voters more
successfully than non-Latino canvassers.
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Phone calls
Phone calls
Volunteer phone calls Effectiveness: 1 vote per 38 contacts. Estimate 16 contacts per hour.
Commercial live calls No special coaching: 1 vote per 180 contacts. With special coaching: 1 vote per 35 contacts.
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Phone calls
Quality of the script Conversational scripts are more effective than
short and impersonal scripts.
Follow-up phone calls Follow-up calls made to individuals who
promised in an initial call to vote leads to significant increases in turnout.
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Warning!
From 2008 to 2012, the contact rate for phone calls in the Obama campaign dropped from 23% to 16%.
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Robocalls
An ineffective mobilization method Effectiveness: 1 vote per 900 contacts. A statistically insignificant effect.
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Literature drops
An ineffective mobilization method Effectiveness: 1 vote per 189 contacts. A statistically insignificant effect.
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Direct mail
Direct mail
Partisan direct mail Large number of studies show the average
effect cannot be large. There are exceptions based on the message.
Nonpartisan direct mail Effectiveness: 1 vote per 200 contacts. Borderline insignificant.
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Social pressure experiment
Field experiment with four treatments 1. Do your civic duty and vote!2. You are being studied!3. Who votes is public information!4. What if your neighbors knew whether you
voted?
Context: Conducted in the 2006 Michigan primary election among 344,084 registered voters
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Increase in turnout compared to control group1. Civic duty mailing: 1.8%2. Hawthorne mailing: 2.6%3. Self mailing: 4.9%4. Neighbors mailing: 8.1%
Context: Conducted in the 2006 Michigan primary election among 344,084 registered voters
Social pressure experiment
The Leadership Institute GOTV
Most effective GOTV tactic
Apply social pressure to motivate people to vote.
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TV and radio advertisements
TV and radio advertisements
Television ads Raises zip-code-wide turnout by 0.5 percent. Mixed results and generally have weak effects.
Radio ads Raises city-wide turnout by 0.8 percent. Mixed results and generally have weak effects.
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TV and radio advertisements
Do television and radio ads matter? The apparent effect of ads decay quickly.
When do television and radio ads matter? When there is a large advertising advantage.
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GOTV
Final thoughts Target GOTV efforts to YOUR supporters. Door-to-door and phone calls are the most
effective mobilization methods. Leverage the power of a volunteer’s social
network to mobilize and persuade. Applying social pressure is the most effective
way to drive an unlikely voter to the polls.
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Questions?
GOTV
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