Get Out The Vote

Get Out The Vote

The Leadership Institute GOTV

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TRUE OR FALSE?

GOTV should be focused on getting as many voters out to the polls as possible.



GOTV – Targeted Activity

Objective Get out YOUR vote! GOTV activities should be targeted to

supporters who you identified through micro targeting and voter identification efforts.




Low-propensity votersvs.

High-propensity voters




High-propensity

UnfavorableVoters

Unknownand Swing

Voters

High-propensity

FavorableVoters

Low-propensity Low-propensityHow to mobilize these voters




PartisanshipTurnout

Democrats Independent Republicans

AlwaysVote X Persuasion X??

Sometimes Vote X Persuasion GOTV

SeldomVote X X X



GOTV – Building a Foundation


In order to maximize GOTV EffortsYou MUST be intentional about

VOTER IDENTIFICATION


GOTV – Two Phases


Phase One – AV/EVPhase Two – Election Day


GOTV – Phase One (AV/EV)

Know your rules. Know your dates Develop your AV/EV programs (online/offline) Execute AV/EV programs (online/offline)



GOTV – Phase One (AV/EV)



Not all votes are created equal

2012 Election: Analysis of AV/EV in Florida.

Obama Romney Obama RomneyHi-propensity voters 58% 71% 58% 76%

Lo-propensity voters 27% 22% 27% 21%

New Voters 15% 7% 15% 3%

Raw total 2.4m 2.1m 1.0m 653k

Florida Ohio



GOTV – Phase Two

ELECTION DAY - Start several weeks in advance Volunteer-based mobilization to remind voters

of upcoming vote. Develop Precinct Workers for ED Develop “knock & drag” operations for ED Develop Campaign War Room for ED



Door-to-Door. Phone calls. Direct mail. Robocalls. Literature drops.

Television ads. Radio ads. Online ads. Social media. Events.

GOTV – Mobilization Methods



Mobilizing Inclusion: Transforming the

Electorate through Get-Out-the-Vote

Campaigns

Lisa Garcia BedollaMelissa R. Michelson

GOTV



Get Out The Vote: How to Increase

Voter Turnout

Donald P. GreenAlan S. Gerber

GOTV



Door-to-door

Door-to-door

Most effective GOTV method Effectiveness: 1 vote per 14 contacts. Estimate: 6 contacts per hour. Spillover effects for an entire household. Targeted – not every voting household.



Door-to-door

Differences in canvassers Local canvassers are more effective than non-

local canvassers. Latino canvassers reach Latino voters more

successfully than non-Latino canvassers.



Phone calls

Phone calls

Volunteer phone calls Effectiveness: 1 vote per 38 contacts. Estimate 16 contacts per hour.

Commercial live calls No special coaching: 1 vote per 180 contacts. With special coaching: 1 vote per 35 contacts.



Phone calls

Quality of the script Conversational scripts are more effective than

short and impersonal scripts.

Follow-up phone calls Follow-up calls made to individuals who

promised in an initial call to vote leads to significant increases in turnout.



Warning!

From 2008 to 2012, the contact rate for phone calls in the Obama campaign dropped from 23% to 16%.



Robocalls

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=9IMOR4L6iYrwtM&tbnid=IhsRzT4IasFmHM:&ved=0CAgQjRwwAA&url=http://www.npr.org/2013/01/02/168444025/reward-offered-to-help-stop-robocalls&ei=IeK5UeDLOOrMyQHDu4D4Dg&psig=AFQjCNEwzeh3WT64Y-X3t_dxotPo5W2mnQ&ust=1371222945983338

Robocalls

An ineffective mobilization method Effectiveness: 1 vote per 900 contacts. A statistically insignificant effect.



Literature drops

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=Vfi24z7hgVRdrM&tbnid=ZoEoyMn-CLSOAM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2013/05/obamas-vaunted-ground-game-might-have-been-incredibly-overrated/275677/&ei=sxS6UevAG-L0yQHe24D4Ag&psig=AFQjCNE99QTTL9C0ve3np95ydoNh_J7PyA&ust=1371235885824525

Literature drops

An ineffective mobilization method Effectiveness: 1 vote per 189 contacts. A statistically insignificant effect.



Direct mail

Direct mail

Partisan direct mail Large number of studies show the average

effect cannot be large. There are exceptions based on the message.

Nonpartisan direct mail Effectiveness: 1 vote per 200 contacts. Borderline insignificant.



Social pressure experiment

Field experiment with four treatments 1. Do your civic duty and vote!2. You are being studied!3. Who votes is public information!4. What if your neighbors knew whether you

voted?

Context: Conducted in the 2006 Michigan primary election among 344,084 registered voters



Increase in turnout compared to control group1. Civic duty mailing: 1.8%2. Hawthorne mailing: 2.6%3. Self mailing: 4.9%4. Neighbors mailing: 8.1%

Context: Conducted in the 2006 Michigan primary election among 344,084 registered voters

Social pressure experiment



Most effective GOTV tactic

Apply social pressure to motivate people to vote.



TV and radio advertisements


Television ads Raises zip-code-wide turnout by 0.5 percent. Mixed results and generally have weak effects.

Radio ads Raises city-wide turnout by 0.8 percent. Mixed results and generally have weak effects.




Do television and radio ads matter? The apparent effect of ads decay quickly.

When do television and radio ads matter? When there is a large advertising advantage.



GOTV

Final thoughts Target GOTV efforts to YOUR supporters. Door-to-door and phone calls are the most

effective mobilization methods. Leverage the power of a volunteer’s social

network to mobilize and persuade. Applying social pressure is the most effective

way to drive an unlikely voter to the polls.



Questions?

GOTV


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Get Out The Vote

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