8/3/2019 FX Weekly Commentary - Oct 23 - Oct 29 2011
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Markets look to Europe for direction to startthe week. The EU Summit this weekend
brought together the EU leaders on working
towards a solution for the debt crisis, the
result was no closer for a sustainable solution
that will be accommodating for all the nations
involved. The solution has a deadline for
Wednesday and is likely to give confidence to
markets if released Wednesday, the initial will
be positive giving a boost to risk assets
including the stock markets. If no solution is
provided by the deadline we will likely see a
collapse to lows for world markets. So this
week is very critical for market direction for
the months to come. We will likely continue in
current range for most currency pairs and the
stock markets preceding this meeting on
Wednesday. Currently we are trading at highs
of the range we carved out last week, givinginterest to go test the other range extreme.
Keep a close eye on the EU summit this week,
for it will be the catalyst for the next major
move in the markets, and do not be fooled by
initial reaction to the news for we may see
much volatility leading up to Wednesday.
Fundamental Outlook
Elite Global
Trading Forex Weekly CommentaryOct 23th Oct 29th 2011 Volume 1, Issue 25
In this issue:
GBPJPY: Has the same look as the EURJPYwith holding it's downward channel. Looking
lower from current levels is favored at the
moment. With 122.60 holding as upside
resistance, we look for a move down towards
119.60.
Outlook: Bearish Bias, with a risk move on tapa move lower for this pair is highly probable
and will likely look to go test key support
around 119.60 area. A break of this will bring
into site the lows at 116.84.
UK Pound Sterling / Japanese Yen
Fundamental
Outlook
USDJPY
EURAUD
1
AUDUSD
GBPUSD
USDCAD
2
EURUSD
NZDUSD
EURJPY
3
Event Risk 4Contact Info
Disclaimer5
EURAUD: Has come off it's range highs of
1.4086 down to support at 1.3360 area, with
the 1.3317 area holding as support we look
for a move back up towards 1.3727-1.3826
over the weeks to come, this would be very
supportive of another Risk Off move.
Outlook: Neutral, this move to the upside will
play well with the markets reacting negatively
to the EU solution and the S&P taking a dive
down towards lows. Resistance levels on the
way up are, 1.3474, 1.3492, 1.3535,
1.3665. If a risk on move continues we will
likely see this pair move back down towards
1.3317, 1.3201, 1.3160.
Euro / Australian Dollar
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Elite Global
Trading
Oct 23th Oct 29th 2011 Volume 1, Issue 25
AUDUSD: A favored risk currency that islooking for reason to go test new levelsaround 1.0480-1.0500. At the moment with
the EU not convening again until Wednesday
for a solution to be presented and
implemented, this pair will likely fall back into
it's range that it held last week between
1.0380-1.0120. The Aussie has gained the
most against the USD in the month of October
and looks to be ready for a reversal back to
lower levels in the weeks to come, a strong
risk averse move that could be starting this
week with negative news out of Europe whichwill send the markets in to a tail spin back
towards lows.
Outlook: Neutral, the move from .9387 in thefirst week of October looks to be coming to an
end and one more push higher is possible if
we get a strong Risk On move in the markets,
other wise we will look for a key reversal
signal to the downside. Untli we get
confirmation of either mover we are still
trading in a range and here are key levels to
watch for, 1.0340, 1.0306, 1.0274, 1.0250,
1.0214, 1.0177, 1.0139 and 1.0117. Below
1.0117 we look for a move back down
towards .9900.
Australian Dollar / United States Dollar
GBPUSD: Broke above congestion resistanceon Friday at 1.5850 to reach its key
resistance point at 1.5950, a continuation of
this move up would bring into light some
levels such as 1.6000, and 1.6104. In order
for this break up to sustain we will need to
have a risk on move across multiple marketsgiving reason for more dollar selling. Currently
the daily is at a top and is reaching extremes,
which may indication of exhaustion of this run
up. A move back towards lows in the weeks to
come is likely for this pair. Moves to the
upside are favored at the moment, but a
reversal back to lows is coming near for this
pair.
Outlook: Neutral, a move to new highs willlikely happen if we get positive commentary
out on Wednesday from the EU, which will
give a strong risk on push if the EU has
solutions that will be implemented. If not the
market will take a turn down to reverse back
to a risk averse move to test lows. For this
pair watch for support at, 1.5846, 1.5802,
1.5785, 1.5725, 1.5650. A break below
1.5650 area we look for a move back down to
test 1.5540 area.
UK Pound Sterling / United States Dollar
USDCAD: Has made highs starting the monthof October at 1.0656 and just hit a low of the
month last week at 1.0042. A move to higher
highs near 1.0800 area is favored as long as
price stays above 1.0007 on a daily close. The
USD dollar has been holding it's recent lows
as well and looks to move higher which will
give a boost to this pair. If the risk trends
Fade over this week we will likely see this pair
start to move towards the highs in the weeks
to come.
Outlook: Neutral, a break above 1.0264 willgive strong indication the move to the upside
will be continuing. A hold of the 1.0007 level
gives strong indication to this move to the
highs of 1.0600 area. Levels support are,
1.0042, 1.0007. Resistance to watch for on
upside is 1.0142, 1.0157 1.0187, 1.0264,
1.0349. Current range the pair is trading in is
1.0042 low to 1.0264 high.
United States Dollar / Canadian Dollar
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NZDUSD: Structure of this pair looks verysimilar to AUDUSD, but lagging in some ways.
We are reaching important levels of
resistance that may hold and be positioning
this pair as well for a risk off move back down
to key levels of support. As with other pairs
that have made a strong move off the
bottoms that were create in the beginning of
October the move to the upside is becoming
exhausted and a reversal lower can be
expected, so keep this in mind when trading
these risk pairs.
Outlook: Neutral, with bullish activity still incontrol with this pair we do consider that this
move up can still extend to higher levels, but
favor a move back down to key support levels
around .7760. Support levels to watch for are
.7975, .7940, .7888, .7860, .7760. Range
has been established last week and should be
respected until a break occurs.
New Zealand Dollar (Kiwi) / United States Dollar
Elite Global
Trading
Oct 23th Oct 29th 2011 Volume 1, Issue 25
EURJPY: Has just come off it's lows of the yearat 100.75 and rallied up to 107.67 for the
month of October, we have broken above
bearish trend line and now fallen back below,
with this trend line holding the structure for
another move down is likely, key level to
watch for is 1.0360 area. A move to this level
is likely before another break higher. Currently
we are in a range between 106.60-105.00. A
break below 104.75 will resume this down
trend to lower levels.
Outlook: Bearish Bias below 107.70. With theweek starting off with risk off on the mind with
the EU not coming to any closer to solutions,
we will likely see this range continue and
possible break lower. Support levels to watch
for are 105.03 104.75, 104.22, 103.60,
103.40.
Euro / Japanese Yen
EURUSD: With no resolution in the EU areversal of this move up is on deck. A
continued move up will need to be with a
resolution on Wednesday that will give the
markets confidence that the EU has an
implemented plan that will bring relief to the
debt crisis. Daily price entering resistance
around 1.3913-1.3950 gives reason for a
reversal back to lows. If a move above these
levels we will see 1.4013 which is also a 61.8
retracement of the 1.4549 move down to
1.3146. Structure looks like another highabove 1.3914 will be formed prior to reversal.
1.3824-1.3801 is support for this move up to
new highs this month. As of the weekend
summit that the EU held, we have no forward
movement that gives any markets confidence
and is likely going to give markets the desire
to sell-off coming into Monday's open inEurope and NY. The current range that was
created last week is still in affect between
1.3900-1.3660. We will look for opportunities
within that structure until we get confirmation
from the markets reaction of the EU summit
on Wednesday. We are at the high of the
range at the moment.
Outlook: Neutral, currently trading at high ofrange and a move lower is expected to start
the week. Support levels to watch for are
1.3824, 1.3801, 1.3778, 1.3774, 1.3703and 1.3660. A break below of 1.3660 we look
for the 1.3623 to be hit, and a close the
1.3660 we look for 1.3542 to be tested.
Euro / United States Dollar
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Elite Global
Trading
Oct 23th Oct 29th 2011 Volume 1, Issue 25
Sunday:AUD: PPI 8:30pm
CNY: HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI
10:30pm
Monday:EUR: French Flash Manufacturing PMI 3am
EUR: German Flash Manufacturing PMI
3:30am
EUR: Flash Manufacturing PMI 4am
EUR: Industrial New Orders 5am
NZD: CPI 5:45pm
EUR: ECB President Trichet Speaks 6pm
Tuesday:EUR: GfK German Consumer Climate 2am
GBP: Current Account 4:30am
GBP: BOE Gov King Speaks 4:45am
CAD: Retail Sales 8:30am
CAD: BOC Rate Statement 9am
EUR: Belgium NBB Business Climate 9am
USD: CB Consumer Confidence 10am
NZD: NBNZ Business Confidence 8pm
AUD: CPI 8:30pm
Wednesday:EUR: Economic Summit
USD: Core Durable Goods Orders 8:30am
USD: New Home Sales 10am
CAD: Monetary Policy Report 10:30am
NZD: Official Cash Rate 4pm
NZD: RBNZ Rate Statement 4pm
JPY: Monetary Policy Statement
Thursday:JPY: BOJ Press Conference
EUR: German Prelim CPI
USD: Advance GDP 8:30am
USD: Pending Home Sales 10am
JPY: Prelim Industrial Production 7:50pm
Friday:EUR: French Consumer Spending
CHF: KOF Economic Barometer
USD: Personal Spending 8:30am
USD: Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
9:55am
Weeks Event Risk
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